Rosterman

Quite a few arms that the Twins have to make longterm decisions on (like, keep them on the 40-man after spring training) - Achter, Darnell, O'Rourke, Tonkin. They still need a hard thrower. I would like to see them concentrate on guys that CAN get a ground ball or GET A STRIKEOUT. Like Mauer at first, I almsot wish Perkins wasn't locked in as the closer and was the lefty set-up man and the Twins would actually get a $10ish million closer added to the staff, for at least a season. Graham can go back to the minors. Pressley can, too, I believe. Rogers could egt a shot. Dean maybe needs to be protected on the 40-man if you can, but doubt if he'll see any real action with the Twins. Too abd the Twins seems stuck with Noalsco, Milone. I do hope Duffey starts. And May will be a solid arm in the bullpen for now. Meyer nees a BIG comeback. Fien should be the odd man out and, no, we don't need Boyer abck..for all the goodness of his story and all. Either go big or stay within your system and hope Jones, Reed, Burdi, Chargolis ALL pan out and give you the Nasty Boys 2016 and Beyond!

The question now is, will Kepler be groomed totally as an outfielder, or will he take throws at first base...for AAA Rochester. If he splits the dutiues, with the idea that he is the Twins first baseman after Mauer, where does that leave Vargas, who also needs time at the corner to increase his own value. Or is Vargas now jsut a guy soon to be passed over by others in the ranks. Of course, what the Twins do with Plouffe is still the elephant in the room at the moment.

And you also look at what has been invested in the player (like Kepler, he was an expensive signing by the Twins...the Rule 5 allows you to possibly grab guys that other teams paid good draft money for to add to your system, if you have the ability to keep them on the roster somehow all season).

The Twins could move pieces still: Pinto, Arcia, Nolasco, any number of back-of-the-pen relief pitchers. Plouffe could be shipped out. Ryan could end up turning over 30% of the roster. But what does he get in return? Do we get a slugging outfielder/DH (think Thome) who is year-to-year. Take the palce of Vargas, perhaps. Do we get a lowend Plouffe who can play the infield AND outfield to be our fourth outfielder? Do we contemplate trading Suzuki and getting still anotehr catcher worse than Murphy but better than Fryer? Is there a bullpen arm that we can have for one year (Storen from the Nats, perhaps) so as not to block the hot young guys supposedly in the wings? Is Nunez gone? Is Fien needed? What happens to Milone? I would trust Duffey as a starter.....but would you? Is May that third bullpen arm we need to take us thru next season? But do we need a power lefty? And how do we get Mauer back to the Joe of old. Sigh!

There really isn't a lot of names necessary for addition there. People like Jones, for example, would be a big gamble. If the age works right and you got a back-of-the-bullpen spot for a pitcher, the Twins could be ripe for picking. The only other name with some consideration is Luke Bard, who could be a sleeper, but would probably be a wait-and-see for the future. Interesting that the Twins do have a considerable number of promising lefties in the pipeline. So, do we bring back Duensing or not? Taylor is the big addition (don't lose him like we did Gilmartin). He could be a bullpen guy. Far better than Boyer, I would think.

Guys go to Indy ball to prove themselves again and get anotehr chance, period. They are hungry. But at the time, not good enough to hold a place in a team's minor league system which has prospects that may need an advance. Every year the Twins sign a bunch of AAAA-type guys, a quarter of them don't make it apst spring training, it seems. But they are given a looksee. Right now, many of us would prefer to see Twins prospects at AAA Rochester in 2016 than a lineup full of one-year minor league free agents.

Pinto, Arcia are both bubble guys. You might have to find space for them. You might jettison them. But you don't have to make that decision until spring training (who knows, one or both could get hurt and start the day on the DL (major league one). You do need to keep a few "fringe" guys around in case you do have to make roster moves at the end of spring training (or possibly a mid-winter free agent signee). Nunez might be worth getting for his arbitration in this case, as will Fien. The Twins do have to make a decision on who to keep amongst Darnell, Achter and Tonkin for sure. I see them adding six guys to the 40-man from all the candidates in the minors.

I would actually play Plouffe in the outfield over Sano at this point. Sano may be as skillful at third, nd Plouffe might offer some better range in the outfield. The Twins DO have to give Arcia anotehr chance. The bullpen is a mess. No Noalsco. I don't see Darnell (would rather put in ROgers at this point). But spring training will show us soimeone stepping up. Still need some power throwing arms there. I doubt that any of the youngsters NOT on the 40-man will crack the bullpen this early. Tonkin is still only depth. Fien is approaching Burton 2.0. We don't even need to consider Duensing (move on) and Boyer can be given a look, but I wouldn't part with a 40-man roster spot for him at this point period. Nunez is also a questionable option. Can Ryan play third or first in an emergency? Do we add Pinto to the mix (or deep-six him from the 40-man and forget about him because of the longjam at DH)?

Gleeman writes some interesting words on Plouffe. My own thoughts, again: the Twins are at a diosadvantage if it seems they HAVE to trade Plouffe. You can keep his bat in the lineup, but do you play him or Sano in the outfield. Where does that put Hicks eventually (fourth outfielder?). Or Hicks is tradebait. Of course, are we sure Rosario is the outfielder we want out there for the next 3-5 years? We also have Kepler and probably Walker coming up, and Arcia needing sometime to see if you can increase his trade value (or cause a decision to be made to keep him fulltime). Is Plouffe expensive at $8 milliuon in 2016 and potentially $11 million in 2017? Would you sign him for three years and $30 million (with an option) and would that make him more or less tradable? Come 2018, he might be a bargain at $10 million a year. But do you see him becoming a regualr fixture in any outfield once his days at third disappear (shades of Michael Cuddyer). If the Twins sign the Korean guy, they suddenly have players that have no room on the ark. Arcia, Vargas and perhaps Plouffe. They also would have to make decisions on Kepler and Walker...better to trade or keep. Throw Hicks in the mix. Six guys, in which half of them DON'T need to be around next season (assuming you sign the first base guy). And we are still stuck with Mauer, who can't catch...sigh!

It's a total crapshoot. Someone like Molitor gets hired, and does what he does, and named manager of the year. We have Dougie abseball in the minors who is itching for a managerial job (not a coaching job) and he should probably get it. It is ncie to see new blood put into the mangerial marketplace rather than managers playing musical chairs. There are more than enough candidates out there to fill any open positions, just in-team manager prospects alone. Gardy's best bet is to become that bench coach and ride the bench for a few years and make the step up when the young manager flames out. I hope he invested his salary wisely.

Quite frankly, none of the "reunion" guys are worth jumping the gun on. Nathan will no doubt wait until mid-season (similar to Soriano) to see what he can get, unless someone blows his checkbook and offers him $5 million guaranteed (with incentives) to sign early. Just remember the case of Santana, who many of us thought would behappy with a minor league contract/looksee. But he managed to get guaranteed big league money for no production. A.J. is similar. Although his price is reasonable, he is still 39. At some point, he may not be any better than an Eric Fryer or Drew Butera. If he could bring the leadership we are losing with Torii, maybe an early grab. But I'm not sure he will be the same clubhouse rpesence. I would rather hire Mike Redmond as a coach to offer some more clubhouse antics/presence. Justin Morneau would be a man withouta position. He won't take the place of Mauer. If something happens to Mauer, I would rather see Kepler and/or Vargas get time at first. We don't need him at DH. A team looking for a DH might grab him (stay away from the NL, Justin). You don't want to play him at first, although he might be better than our current first bagger. Pther reunion possibilities? Scott Baker is looking for work. Phil Humber will be seeking a job. We could bring abck Kris Johnson from his overseas tour. Nick Punto could be talked out of his one-year retirement. We could Noalsco for Garza. We could trade Jepsen for Ramos. I'm sure Alexi Casilla would accept a contract offer. And Pedro Hernandez is right across the river in St. Paul Saints land.

I say goodbye to Nunez and keep Danny as the benchguy for 2016 and see if he steps up in any way. The Twins need a placesetter at short for at least 2016 and possibly 2017 and between Escobar (who if he remains consistent can be tradebait) and Santana, I feel the Twins have adequate coverage.

With those five guys projected to join the Twins, the future does look pretty darn birght if none of the other 25 or so show up. We have a starter, a corner outfieler who can play first, a center fielder, a shortstop, and a guy who might start but could close. Whew! All we need is a catcher!

Drew Butera!?

So Escobar could be a placesetter until we see Gordon, followed by Vielma if need be, and then Javier in the wings. If we went and signed someone longterm, then we have some expendable tradebait here. J.T. Char sounds like he may be the next...Anthony Slama, perhaps. Hope not. That he develops and is given every opportunity tobecome a first-rate bullpen arm in the majors. Meyer controls his own destiny. 2016 is the year he shines or is bypassed. Unfortunately, his trade value with the current Twins is not what it was when the Nats dealt him to us.

Let's look at the players we do have and figure out how to bat them. Hicks CF Dozier 2B Mauer 1B Sano DH Plouffe 3B Arcia RF Rosario LF Suzuki C Escobar SS Pretty solid if everyone produces. Would ratehr see Dozier at third and Mauer further back, if could find a #2 hitter (maybe Hicks moves there when Buxton comes up). The challenge is Sano/Plouffe/Arcia/ Although far from eprfect, Sano IS the cleanup hitter. Plouffe is inconsistent. Arcia needs to prove himself all over again.

I don't see the need for Plouffe in left. Dozier departing, we lose some punch at the position compared to possible repalcements for now. I have faith that Arcia will get it all together and smash the ball and take the Twins to the limit in arbitration before departing via free agency someday. But, by then, we might have Adam Walker. I agree that the Twins should avoid signing any of their arbitration guys Fien and Nunez, not to mention the free agents like Boyer and Cotts and Duensing (and Hunter and, of course, Pelfrey). Bring in new bodies. Or advance prospects.

If a team has the money, you gamble. This last season, the Twins put a lot of money into their rotation. They lost, but the team did better than recent years. Go figure. You always run the risk of a bad investment (that is what you have analytics and scouts for, right). You have to be willing eat a certain amount of salary every season. They did it with Joe Mays, to a lesser extent Nick Blackburn, once for Joe Nathan. It happens. Be prepared to not have your "superstars" on the field. It is the longterm eating of a contract that literally sucks. Do you trade prospects? Same issue. How many prospects in the Top 20 make it to the majors. How many actually play in the majors for any extended amount of time. A quick look at the past decade of Twin draftees shows that you are lucky if 5-6 guys make the majors, and not necessarily with your own team. And here is another area that you are spending good money and not getting the results that you may want. Ultimately, my definition of a top of the order sarter, or an Ace, is someone who consistently year-after-year gives you starts and innings (preferably 200 these days) and keeps you in the game. I have never totally embraced the idea of having your "ace" start against another team's ace, especially in, say, the playoffs or World Series. One of these "aces" has to lose. You might do better having your next guy pitch against their ace and have your ace come back against a lesser pitcher. A year long battle of aces could have one guy with a 20-10 record and a 2.98 ERA and the other with a 10-20 record and a 2.99 ERA, How much is that worth? I have also been a firm believer that you do develop your own talent and when that talent produces for you, you reward them with contracts and salary for what they are doing and have done. When you pay out outrageous monies based on what someone ahs done with another team (different home park, different offense, different bullpen) you are paying for soemthing that will go bust more often than not. At least when that homegrown talent busts, you can tell yourself you were underpaying them in early years. Looking at the Twins in 2015, what would it have been like to have David Price on the mound with the team? Would he been equally successful? Are a pitchers numbers like Grienke skewed because he faces a pitcher as a batter in the National League? Would we rather have three $15 million dollar pitchers and have one go down than one $25 million pitcher who goes down (and, yes, we had three that did partial work last season, I know). In the game of baseball, someone wins, someone loses. Your best and their best still results in someone not winning.

Cleveland was supposed to be better this season, and they regressed a bit, but right now have a very low payroll and all the ptential in the world to be strong out-of-the-gate in 2016. Though no one over-excelled in 2015, the Twins outlook is more than promising. Where you have to ask the questions is depth. They have some depth in the outfield...five possible guys and you can supplement that with an AAA-type reserve. There is no backup at catcher, and although Suzuki played hard and gave adequate numbers offensively (I can';t believe he did bat second for awhile), he is not the future, and not the guy you want behind-the-plate for a contending team. We have Vargas and Kepler backing up first. We have Polanco backing up second. We have no one abcking up short. We have Plouffe and Sano battling it out for third. There, we pretty much covered the gp-tos for the Twins offensively in 2016. AAA will be full of Chattanooga advancements and unnamed minor free agents. We can talk about the May, but let's talk about Eeptember. Santana and Duffey were brilliant. Plefrey didn't really do anything for the Twins that May couldn't have replicated. Milone was hot and cold. Gibson was consistent, neither great, neither horrible. There, we have one starter too many. I hope Ryan doesn't sign another swingman like Stafuuer, but would like to think that for emergency purposes he could trust Rogers or Dean to pull some major league innings until Berrios is truly ready and Meyer figures things out. Twins set for rotation, although we can only hope Nolasco can dobetter than...Pelfry in 2016. The bullpen has Jepson and Perkins. Looks good. Otherwise, unless May stays, there is NO ONE I would pencil in from the names that played in 2015. I would say open season and don't go out-of-you-way Terry to sign Boyer or Fien or Duensing or Cotts. All are welcome back at less pay than 2015...yes, even Fien. If no one took him off your hands in August, then think about his true value. You can waive out all the other names: Darnell, Tonkin, O'ourke, Achter, Thompson. You can find replacements. YOU CAN FIND REPLACEMENTS. Hopefully you do better than just find replacements and spend some of that extra money you will have by NOT having Hunter and Pelfrey back for one-two legit middle-of-the-bullpen arms. The only depth in the offense is Plouffe, who isn;t exactly a bargain for a team and teams will think the Twins do want to move him and offer low, until a third baseman goes down in spring training. Of course, will playing a position during a game hurt or help Miguel in his at bats. You can entertain offers for Hicks, Dozier, Rosario and Escobar, who all have some worth. But you will go with unproven (Kepler, Polaco) or need to sign a short-term free agent if you move any of them. I see the roster pretty set. No one knocking down the Twins door to get Plouffe. People waiting to see what the Twins do do with Arcia. Staying comfortable with the current rotation because we have just enough able bodies if someone goes down. The bullpen is the only place to upgrade and spend good money for solid relief. You can always bring back the Boyer, Fien or Duensing for a song, if they find no takers elsewhere.

We need a catcher upgrade. We need dependable backlup at first base if Mauer goes down. We need to have someone at third if Sano can't play tehre, especially if Plouffe is traded. We have a bunch of guys in the minors who can fill bench roles in the outfield and DH - Vargas, Arcia, :Pinto, Kepler come to mind. A couple could be Mauer replacements if needed. Who do we have as abckup in the infield? Resign Nunez? Santana and maybe Polanco. Do we sign a big bopper? Someone who could play the outfield and third base, betetr than Plouffe and for less or more? Plouffe will be around $7-8 million this year. Unfortunately in 2017, his value increases to $11-12. Not sure the Twins feel he is worth that much in 2017 (or any other team in baseball). But Plouffe will probably wait until his free agent year to gamble for a bigger contract than the $30 million the Twins MIGHT offer him for three years, but would the Twins offer that? The offense is pretty well set. It is jsut who plays if someone goes down, with the big question being if Sano can play third. Mauer NEEDS to produce. But he will not be going anywheres and chances are he will even get an extension at some point to remain a Twin for life. Do we find a DH/third baseman> Can they repalce Hunter and/or Plouffe? Is it someone for short-term or longterm? Do we find an aging vet who can also play x-positions in a pinch but is a Thome-like bat off the bench (not named Hunter or Morneau). Armchair GM's will have fun as liss are released of free agents, arbitration no-goes, minor castoffs and the ilk!

Adjusting to major league piching is difficult. Especially to excel. Somehow, Sano is swinging and hitting the right pitches MOST of the time, but he is also striking out a lot. Patience is the key for any youngster. At some point, the hitter forces the pitcher to be careful on that first pitch and NOT throw an automatic strike. That's the game of baseball, is it going to be a ball or a strike. Period. Then you start worrying about lcoation, and a batter needs to constantly adjust their own game plan according to a pitcher's strengths (inside/outside, high/low, breaking pitches, curveballs, etc.). It will be interesting to see the work guys do during the iwinter (Sano, Buxton, Rosario) and what returns we get out of spring training (Arcia, Vargas, Pinto, Santana...will they rebound). That's seven solid playrs who ALL have a chance to start in the major leagues, pretty much just leaving a space for Mauer and Dozier in the lineup, assuming Pinto culd catch. We saw some consistent work from Sano and Rosario this season, and Hicks has improved a bit, but on thee whole, beyond the smashing of Sano and the triples of Rosario, we only saw some glimpses of players exceling. We need a couple to become stars, maybe even a superstar. And Mauer to return to his status as an elite hitter. And Dozier to have an equally good second half. Then...the pitching.....

Ovrall, it is a strange team. No pitcher won more than 11 games, yet we contended. No one put up great numbers in stolen bases, average, strikeouts (except as batters) or any number ofotehr categories. Yes, led in doubles and triples categories, hit a few more homers than expected. But, yes, Perkins faded, Mauer just never took off, Dozier did some goodthings, Plouffe was Plouffe, some rookies showed promise, others sucked bigtime from alst year. The bullpen was a mess. The games worked by many is astounding. But it must faze a manager when you have absolutely no idea what to expect and you need a reliever who will egt a ground ball, or one who can strike guys out, etc. etc. etc. Stange season statistical-wise.

The thing is, at this point you don't even need to add Berrios to the 40-man roster. Meyer and May are still in the wings. Names like Dean and Rogers are also in the mix. And then you have the next wave (return of Wimmers, Baxendale, Stewart amongst others, but still not up until 2017 at the earliest.) And we always have the injury factor. Be interesting to see who the Twins sign for free agents (minor leagues) a la Boyer, Stauffer and the ink.

Don't let Pelfrey go mroe than five innings. If you want to limit Duffey, youc an do that, too. But then the Twins have to hope Noalsco comes back this weekend Darnell and May get better, and the manager will trust Tonkin, Albers, O'Rourke and even Duensing.

Rosario looks like a solid worker. He will listen and strive to improve. He needs to learn to NOT swing, but a lot of that comes with discipline, watching film, and letting the coaches crawl onto your back more often than not. He seems glad to be in the major leagues and is having fun playing ball.