Rosterman

Sometimes it is so amazing how much turnover there is in rosters when you look three, five years out. And how many guys do remain in the minor league system for any length of time.

Your typical team has space for one (maybe two) franchise players. Mauer has one of the spots. The Twins are willing to spend 55% of revenue on payroll,which is a joke. What do you do with the other 45%...and how much of ANY profit the Twins made the apst few years went to buy down their investment in the stadium (which more than doubled their worth) and whose pocket did it go into (do owners make as much, say, as commissioners in their paychecks?). You can invest in free agents. The Twins did the last couple of seasons. Wisely? Who knows. But I doubt that any of the top-flight names were busting down the door to get a Twins offer, which has long been a problem. Even with the worthwhile signing of Josh WIllingham, in the past, Michael Cuddyer managed to still get a much higher paycheck in what had become a diminishing market for outfield talent. Go figure. You have to take chances on Payroll. You have to invest wisely. That is hard when a player gets suspended or injured (look at the rotation). In the past, how could you compete against a team like, say, The Yankees, who are willing to have $30-40 million sitting on the disabled list or in lost contracts each year. The Twins seem to go into major turmoil when they lose one guy, be it Mauer, Nathan, Santana or what. It is tough running a major league team. You don't know how the prospects will pan out. You can be Oakland and flip your roster 40-50% each season, running a revolving door between vets and promise. You can argue the actually need to do a longterm expensive contract (Mauer) and cringe when you hear what a Trout or others may be offered in the future (was St. Louis wise to let Pujols walk). At what point to you overpay a Sano and hope he stays reasonable, or you let him become someone else's worry. We just don't really know how to follow the money in this sport. What really goes where (draft picks, international signings, minor league operations) and what ownership takes for their pockets or reinvestment in stadium bricks. Players make the most of it and demand whatever they can get for their services, and everytime someone gets a big contract, it makes it harder to sign certain levels of players, and leaves many others out in the cold as "not worth it." The Twins always seemed happy to put a competitive team on the field, to hopefully draw the fans and aim towards the playoffs. Is a competitive team one that plays slightly above .500 (like last year's team) or comes in close to a spot in the post season (also last year's team). The assumption is that EVERY team does WANT to be competitive. (We might see it in the Central in 2016 where f-8 games MIGHT separate the first team from the last). Fantasy baseball began when us common folks wanted to see what kind of team we could put together given x-amount of dollars. We all know how that game works...especially when each year you get to spend for the now, not the hereafter.

I am still a member of the Alex Wimmers fan club!

At this point, he is being passed on the prospect starting scale by Gonsalves, Jay and ever Stewart. He might be able to hang onto a longman position. The good news is that if the Twins can develop him as a reliever he will be a fairly cheap addition to the bullpen for the next 3-5 years. Does he have closer potential, that is a question.

The anatomy of a trade. Whew! Always wondered about Brian Buchanan (who. I believe, is coaching in the Royals system). He had his chances, but... I truly thought Oliveros would make the team in 2015. But even after missing out in spring training, he went down and out. Neagle and Erickson, well maybe not Erickson, were interesting losses...one due to contract, the other due to the need for a vet presence. All from a guy named Chuck!

Yeah, this is a tough one. We aren't getting many dingers from the catching spot, which made Mauer so valuable as a catcher...he could hit 10-12 dingers, plus the high average. That's weakness number one, now transfered to 1B, which becomes weakness #2, except that he is the Twins leader in getting and it doesn't matter how you egt a guy home sometimes, as long as he comes home. Dozier hits for good power at second base, yet do we need to drop him down in the order and would he regress coming up with two outs, say, rather than leading off. Escobar was a surprise with his power last season. is power more important than putting the ball in play is always the question. Sano at third would supply more punch and even a betetr average than Plouffe, but would Arcia in right do better than the current play places of Sano and Plouffe, that is the question. If you want home runs, give us a FULL season of Arcia and let's see what happens. Buxton will just have to hit and it may seem like the braintrust is playing him like Go-Go Gomez and making him use his bat and speed to get and move around bases. He will become a power-hitting centerfielder at some point. Rosario is really an enigma. He hits doubles and triples to go with his homers. He hits for a decent, not spectacular average. Unless he does show a gain in average and punch this season, he will be on the bubble. On the bench, Nunez has some power, as does Murphy. Santana, playing parttime and as a reserve? Well, let's say that if he starts the year in centerfield, he will hit more home runs than Buxton would in 2016. The Twins have the chance to get 30-35+ from Sano and Park, although both are still unproven for the long haul. They have a slugger in Arcia who needs playing time. They have no power at first or catcher...when you think that Escobar could hit more diners, or an equal amount of dingers for the pair combined. Sigh. What matters more is actually getting the runners home at some point, and putting yourself in a position to also score a run./

The bullpen will be made up of a lot of 40-man decisions. Will Tonkin be optioned out. Does someone start the season on the 60-day disabled list. Who are the names in limbo of losing their 40-man spot if a minor league free agent ahs to be added. Looks like Kennys Vargas will stay in the organization, until the Twins get a read on Park and Mauer with sunglasses, at least. Sadly, there's a lot of AAAA guys on the Rochester roster whose chances are slim=to=none of ever making the Twins roster, or so one might hope. Better Kepler, Polanco and guys in your system get a chance. But won't put it past the Twins to get another looksee at Mastro or Benson if Buxton flops in spring training and someone in the outfield ends up on the dl. If Santana is the starting centerfielder guy.who WILL win the open bench job?

I see quite a few names that the Twins have tire kicked in the past, or who are actually former Twins. Beimel, Parmelee, Lohse, Delmon Young besides the obvious). Any other time but now, it would've been nice to return Justin Morneau, but the DH is overcrowded and we have another player with concussion issues already at first. Sign. It will be interesting to see the contract of most of these 60, as at least 50 of them aren't set to hang up their spikes, yet. But are there two rosters spots remaining on all major league rosters, elt alone AAA rosters?

In 1966 the Twins signed the first player to come over this way and play professional baseball from South Africa, Dave Lowery. He pitched decently as a starter for A ball, but returned to South Africa where he was active in their baseball program for decades. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=lowery001dav

I hope they stretch May out as a starter in spring training just in case. Having him pitch 3-4 innings as spring rounds down. Otherwise, they get to use that "not stretched out" excuse again. I hate to see May become the Swarzak replacement in the pen, and if he stays in relief he will become too expensive for the Twins UNLESS he can become a bonifide closer.

Actually, the Twins starters did do pretty well last year and there is nothing that says most can't get us into the 7th. Duensing and Cotts are still available. The Twins could also take a flyer on Delmon Young as that 4th outfielder. Joe Nathan?

At this point in time, both Arcia and Santana are pretty much locks to make the team and Santana WILL start in centerfield if Buxton doesn't make the initial cut out of spring training. Arcia's bat is just too powerful to let him walk without giving him a chance to show some more stuff. At worst, he sits on the bench. At best, he gets a starting job if Sano, Rosario, Mauer or Park go down. Arcia would be grabbed by someone if he became available. Santana would have to boot the ball and hit the Mendoza line in spring training to be sent out. His battle, ultimately, could be with Nunez period if Buxton has a hot spring. Tonkin is in that position that this is his last chance with the Twins. He has to produce. The Twins, at the very least, will need a 40-man roster spot for a lefty and unless they DH someone, the two major candidates are Tonkin and Hicks. (Which also brings up the cause for Santana staying...they would need a 40-man spot to add Quentin, Benson, Mastro or Sweeney). Of course, Dean, O'Rourke, Rogers and Strong could also be 40-man casualities. Tonkin, if removed, would pretty much be done as a Twin, probably. Unless he blows people away in spring training (then why wouldn't the Twins keep him), he will be passed by many others in the organizational chart. Even now, he has to beat out Pressly and Graham and the spring training invitees beyond Abad. The Twins still could move Plouffe, putting Sano back at third, Acia in right etc. etc. etc. And at some point, we will hopefully get a good long look at Kepler in the mix. And we all will be watching Park. Will he be the DH out of the chute. Does he need seasoning, and will that happen, then, by sitting on the bench and subbing for Mauer at first and rotating, perhaps, with Arcia as a DH. The Twins roster is pretty darn set. There is still dead weight in the 40-man (Nolasco NEEDS to rebound). More, if you look at the at least six names I mentioned above that could join the three out-of-options.

Baseball, sadly, is not football.

We want to see Sano in the field. But if he can be the Twins Big Papi, things will happen. Regarding starters, the guys need to stay healthy and throw close to 200 innings and keep us in the game (4 runs or less) and then the bullpen needs to be five solid arms who pitch near perfect, holding leads. They need to have strikeout and ground-ball specialists. Plus, it will be interesting to see if Gordon and Kepler become positive pieces. Of course, the big piece in the next 3 seasons is still Joe Mauer. The team does revolve around him and where he bats and how he plays.

I really have no problem with Santana, Hughes and Gibson. I also have no problem if Nolasco rebounds and if we stick Milone into the mess. Knowing that we have May and Duffey as backup and Berrios in the wings is a godsend. But we have no real stopper. Each of those starters will require the Twins to score a minimum of three runs a game to win the game, if not 4. I would expect that each of the starters who make the rotation will be able to get the Twins comfortably into the 7th inning if not thru that inning. That will mean less reliance on a bullpen that still remains up in the air if you need someone for more than two innings consistently. I am comfortable with Perkins as closer and Jepsen as an alternative. I like the idea of Jepsen and Abad as 8th inning guys. I can see Fien fitting in nicely to give us three eight inning guys. I liked Pressly. But I truly can't wait for Burdi, Reed and hope that Milwauke passes on Zack Jones.

Being on the 40-man is a plus. If he would start the season in the bigs, he would be new blood and it would take a little while for teams to figure him out. But picture him being on a fast-track callup if Abad or Rogers or O'Rourke falters. Being on the 40-man is a BIG plus. No movement necessary and you are enough of a prospect to keep your space.

Polanco will pretty much have to make the roster full-time as a utility guy in 2017, unless he can be a placesetter at short (depending on Escobar's season). He could push Dozier to a trade, if the Twins can compensate for Brian's bat in other ways and depending on who the shortstop of the future is with the Twins (is Gordon still two seasons away). The nice thing is that if Dozier, Escobar go down at all in 2016, Polanco will get more fulltime play, above and beyond his couple of at-bats from previous seasons, or I hope he does. The Twins need to put "the future" into the lineup when injuries happen, rather than the wisened old utility guy who may/may not contribute in the future.

The Twins are in that fine-line position of going with prospects now or trying to win now. They have a lot of prospects, but you don't know what they bring to the table unless they can actually play in the major leagues. Yes, the Twins were competitive last season, although the 2nd place finish doesn't totally match with the slightly above .500 season. It is a hard job putting together a baseball team. You want some predictability (i.e. Stauffer) and you fear taking chances with guys. Some succeed like Boyer, but he's not flashy enough and heaven only knows what would happen if you threw him out there again as a mainstay for a second season. Again, a general manager is a TOUGH job. You are working within the 40-man roster guidelines. You are stocking depth. You can't plan for injuries. Players have different learning curves (who would've thunk Rosario would out-perform Buxton, for then). The division appears stronger overall in 2016 and ALL the teams pretty close with probably 5-7 games separating the top from the bottom, depending on play against other divisions. Looking forward to spring training this year and the season opener!

We do have the arms to start the season and enough retreads and prospects to play some musical chairs up-and-down. The only problem is 40-man roster management, adding guys that aren't on by replacing who on the roster. The 40-man is, in reality, pretty tight unless the Twins make some calls on folks like Nunez and Noalsco, or Vargas and Arcia. What I find telling is the non-siging, so far, of Cotts and Duensing. Not to mention Boyer without a home. Plus the whereabouts of old names like Swarzak and Thielbar and Deduno. I see Kansas City grabbed Oliveros and his fastball. I could agree that the names out there to add were just too expensive, especially if looking beyond one year. They might be more predictable than arms in the minors. But either way, there is no guarantee that one will be competitive this year or not!

Right now, what is Ricky look for in baseball. He can sit back and collecta good salary for two years. He can pitch extremely well for the Twins in 2016, but that just means they might trade him somewhere not of his choosing. He could pitch extremely well the next two seasons if he wishes to stay in the game and make big money. If he doesn't produce, his baseball career,sadly, will be over. It's tough. Yes, he was injured in 2015, so we hope he goes forward (that he came back at season's end is a feather, so to speak, in his cap of wanting to be productive. The Twins decision will be where best to use his talents. Send im out every fifth day and see if they can get team value for him as a starter. Bury him and eat his contract in the back of the bullpen. Let him go and see if someone else gives him a chance. This is am important spring training for Rocky and also for the Twins. Do they go with their best (and future) 25 or do they continue to play the veteran, options and major-league roster time games.

Yes, it starts to come down to 40-man roster moves. You MAY have someone go on the disabled list. You MAY trade someone out of spring training. You have to make choices on Arcia, Santana and others. I picture the Twins will add Abad. They may make a last minute play for Choate, but then they have to designate Hocks, or Strong or O'Rourke. Not many names to cut from the 40-man. Then it will be a simple matter of the arms that come north in the bullpen keeping their job or shuttling down to Rochester (and off the 40-man). Telling time for Pressly, Graham, Fien, Rogers, Tonkin. Of course, Pat Dean is a probable casualty. Who else can the Twins send away? Vargas? Nunez? So right now, it is a pretty full plate for the Twins, making a decision on the rotation and seeing if anyone can go from there, having too many names in the pen, 3 catchers but none overwhelming, decisions to be made on Vargas and Arcia short-term or long-term. I wouldn't sign any of the above with the current roster situation. I wish there were people knocking down the Minnesota door to trade for a piece of our not-so-good pie, but I don't see the Twins flipping anyone for anything but a mid-level prospect at best.

A very good analysis and you can't ask for a more even division. A difference of five games won/lost can make a huge difference in this division. If someone gets off to a massive star out of spring training, they might be hard to catch. Any of the above teams that do want to win ahs to take care of the teams in their own division, first!

This is the year Kepler HAS to get some major Major League playing time. Next year will be his 4th on the 40-man (the Twins added him earlier than necessary because of the potential of someone grabbing him from the system). They need to evaluate him to see if he will stay in the system, possibly become tradebait, or what. It will be interesting to see how he works out. When you talk of him going into the outfield (with Buxton and Rosario), then that means Sano will go back to third, and at this point, please put Sano at third then and trade off Plouffe. There is also the possibility of first base, but Mauer creates a roadblock there. And if Park shows life, we are really blocked up in the DH/1B world. The hopes are that Arcia and Rosario show enough in 2016 to viable trade pieces. That would free up roster space. Remember, we also have Walker in the wings or could also patrol one of the corner spots. Spring Training will be fun to follow in 2016!

Plouffe is still a keeper...THIS SEASON. Next season, his final arbitration year, he will command north of $10 million. That is the decision on the horizon, and also affects his trade value to another team. Is he worth it? That is the question. If Plouffe IS worth it, you try and sign him, right now, today, for $30-33 million over three years with a 4th year option. If he isn't worth it, you figure out a way to trade him NOW or hope there is a demand for a third baseman in mid-season...and then it becomes the decision of another team to offer the arbitration, or he becomes a free agent and could possibly sign for less (say three years and $24-30 million). Either way, this season and next Plouffe has to play well for financial reward. It's a gamble you take. But either way, he is still tradable for a relief pitcher...but at what level. Again, if you do sign him, than you commit to keeping him at third, or do you move him (shades of Cuddyer) to the outfield. Have the Twins seen enough of Sano in the outfield (no) to know he will work out there. Actually, have the Twins seen enough of Sano at third, in major league situations, to be comfortable with the big guy there. If we parted with Plouffe and Sano wasn't the guy at third, then what do we do. Our troubles seem to be revolving more and more around with Mr. Minnesota Twin, Joe Mauer, who is a franchise player...but..... In the big picture, we would save salary, if we could find a taker. For the next three years he is playing positions -- first base and DH -- that we could put any number of others players in. Plouffe at first, Sano at third. Leave outfield for Kepler. We have Park in the mix. Where do we play Vargas and Arcia. What happens if Walker is the real deal. We all know what Mauer brings to the table. And the Twins will still have to make a further decision on the "Face of the Franchise" again...if Joe wishes to play beyond his contract.

The only way the Twins would really really add pieces would be if they played Billy Beane ball and started trading massive amounts of current pieces for different pieces. But to do so, people have to want anything that you have to offer. The guys you want to keep, other teams want (Sano, Buxton, Berrios). But so many others could be traded to strengthen, say, catcher, corner outfield, bullpen. Who says you can't move Santana or Gibson or Hughes. If you believe in bullpen prospects, take a buyer for Perkins. Will anyone take Suzuki off your hands? Would moving Plouffe really solve problems (he will be expensive in arbitration in 2017). Otherwise, we can pretty much write in the names of the 25-man roster with Santana/Nunez/Arcia getting jobs because of being out-of-option. The biggest question is Buxton, does he start in the minors? Then who plays centerfield? And if ANY of these bullpen minor league signings pan out, what current 40-man roster names do we say goodbye!