Rosterman

I alwaus laugh at payroll numbrs. Money associated with major league teams seem to be the best closed secret this side of candidates for office. Sure, we all get a figure for payroll costs. But sometimes I wonder what the real dollars are associated with this. Does the player pay, out of their salary, monies to the union for pension, insurance, and such. Does the team pay for medical insurance on top of salary, workman's comp? We know some contracts carry an insurance policy. Then we wonder what a team actually spends on operations. The old 55% of payroll and 45% to operation always confuses me. Because if you suddenly jump, as the Twins have, from $90 million to $120 payroll, I don't necessarily see operatons costs jumping the same. At some point the cost of doing business stays pretty much the same with logical increases for employees. And then we have the other kicker. How much do teams spend on player development. We have the numbers on hand paid out for draft picks. But how much does it cost to run Fort Myers. How much do the Twins pay to other minor league teams. What is the payroll for 150 or so players under control in the minors. What do minor league staff members actually make. Income? Tickets. Media. Share in MLB revenue. Something from logos/branding & trademarks. Advertising. Names. Sponsorships. In-kind exchanges. Concessions. Sometimes we hear that a profit is made. But profits can quickly turn into losses when you move things around, and sometimes one profitable part of a bigger business can offset losses in another part of a business for the betterment of the ownership. What we know is winning will put butts in seats, increase viewer and listenership. You sell more jerseys, more beer, more hot dogs. Sometimes NOT selling a lot of season tickets works, as tickets are now kept off a secondary market that doesn't benefit the team. Having control of unsold tickets going into a season can be great if youa re winning and can sell those ticekts yourself for fullprice with little competition from secondary markets. Looking at the Twins, as an asset that continues to grow (what were they worth when Target Field was built...something like $595 million or so). Are they NOW a billion-dollar worth team, with little or no debt - I understand - as they have managed to pay that down, if not toally off, in their shared expense. We know the player's union likes to say players deserve a percentage of revenue for the sport as a whole, which quickly goes out the window on the day a contract is signed and new media contracts are signed and ticket prices set. Yes. The Twins can easily spend $120. They should spend $130 million. They can spend $150 million and not take a hit. Heck, they probably could go higher and higher if they THINK they can actually field a team that not only wins the division but can go deeper into the playoffs. Spending isn't always the key to sucess. It is the quality of the players. Investing in the future. Worrying about the cost of keeping the future in place. $130 million in 2020. They still want to pisition themselves to make money, after three years of making money.

The tough call is one-year left. And doesn't he want to only sign one-year contracts? Yes, the Twins could replace Rosario (with someone cheaper no doubt). And Gordon is a spare piece today. They could afford the dollars. Is his an attitude you want on the team? Perhaps. And, dependng on his play, he could get a qualifying offer. If his season is like last year's, chances are he would take it.

There is soemthing to the fact that Minnesota is not always the highest on any free agent's list to come and play (for some odd reason). When they have signed free agents, we often complain that they overpay for some guys, because we can't get the big names (or refuse to oevrpay bigtime). And all the talk we like to do about trades like we are running a fantasy ballteam, you have to have players that fulfill a need in another organization, be it on the major league roster or in the minor league prospect spectrum to pull off a trade. If we can find fault with our players, otehr teams must see that same fault. Teams will trade to (1) get rid of salary (2) not have to worry about further arbitration or potential free agency (3) someone appears on the cusp (4) someone is a pretty prized - and paid in bonus money - prospect (5) an injury happens and you need an immediate replacement - be it longerm or maybe just shortterm and/or (6) change of scenery.

You have to approach awards by who gives them. Why is the opinion of baseball writers so high? Like over in that movie biz. Who are these foreign writers that give away the lame Golden Globes which generates millions for viewing on television so they can party with celebrities. The Oscars are an industry award, still a far cry from fan favorites, as the pros in different divisions vote for works depending on budget and marketing to the members of this limited group. Hey, they have yet to totally figure out All-Star voting. Is it dor the season past, or do you slip in because you have a great first half...and how do small market teams fight the large market teams. Baseball America has their own awards. Who reads Baseball America...really. Ever look at their circulation figures?

You have Berrios. Hopefully there is an upside to Berrios and he will continue to improve. Who do you replace Odorizzi with? Someone who can go five innings? Someone not tied into a 3-4 year contract? Imagine there are quite a few possibilities. Who do you repalce Gibson with. ANyone. Here I would consider adding a bigger name free agent, be it Wheeler or Bumgarner. Who replaces Pineda? My concern with Pineda is - did he get better because of what he was taking? If you can get Gibson and Pineda on rasonable one year ofers, I would sign both and hope Gibson shows up strong in spring training. Gibson still ahs health concerns. Will they come abck? Pineda will miss the first month-and-a-half. Who replaces Perez? Agan, anyone. Heck, I would consider Odorizzi a fine upgrade if he takes the one year deal. But I am afraid of Odorizzi over the longterm. The Twins also need a spot or a way to look at future arms in their organization. Do they have enough worthwhile arms to devote one roster spot to giving them experience. Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer are this year's cropy. Graterol is also a strong consieation. The Twins have 4-5 othre names that could be contributing at the backend of the rotation starting in 2021 and maybe being a futrue major league star. But the question always is...if you BUY rotation arms, then what do you do with the arms in the system. Do you basically let them walk over time (see Stewart, Slegers, Gonsalves) or do you package them when they still have some perceivd worth for offense, or other prospects that you can, in turn, apckage still at another date. Simply by throwing money at the fan the Twins should be able to upgrade over Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda and Perez. Within their own system they should be able to upgrade over Perez and Gibson 2019. I am not comfortable with Odorizzi longterm. I am not sure how bad the Twins need to be the second-round rehab for Pineda. They have the money to spend. They need a swecond catcher (still cheap). They also need a closer, which should be job one. Spend big on this arm, and the otehr aprts of the bullpen will thrive. You should still have $30-40-50 million to spend on rotation arms.

I would let him explore the market.

Well, trading away four pieces that if the Red Sox can put them on the field in their lineup and stay competitive, then why can't the Twins do the same. Betts over Rosario, for one year? Yes, getting Price for only 3 years rather than signing a Price-like free agent for 5-7 years is what the Astros do so well. But Bala has such promise. I would rather roll the dice on Graterol than Balaz being redy in another season, than $90 million on Price at this point. I don't see Price being the one to ensure us a World Series day. Gordon will start at AAA but should be numebr one for a call up if anyone in the infield goes dow. Or maybe he does bump Adrianza out of a job. Or proves to be a more valuable addition to the roster than third catcher Austildo. We lose Sano and stuck with Cron at first. Gonzalez at third? Yes, the Twins can take on the salary dump of someone else. Yes, that team would want players that they can pencil in. But if the players to pencil in are in demand by a team like the Red Sox, then the Twins better reevaluate their own take on prospects. Off-season 2019 may be the time to move Rosario and Sano. You'd like to think they will increase in value (as well as payroll cost). But what if they don't. Are they worth prime players now? The flip for Gray brings to mind a reent post on mlbtraderumors about the Padres being such a rich farm system that they are in the hunt for trading future talent for major league talent. I would think the Twins are in a very similar position.

Interesting. I guess home runs matter!

I would not part with this pitcher. Now hopefully he won't miss a season becaue of some surgical need.

The Twins have to make a decision if they are also-rans, building towards a team dominated by their prospects, or if they want to make a push further into the post-season for 2020. Salazar is a place-holder, be it in the bullpen or the rotation. They can spend lots of money, like they did in 2019, on pieces that may or may not play out. Of course, spending BIG MONEY doesn't ensure production. They need a back-up catcher, make a decision on who's on first (or third), solidify the backup infielder, figure out the future outfield (i.e. Rosario gone and who plys there), add a REAL closer and another significant bullpen arm, plus a couple of solid callup guys for AAA ball. Plus, add 3 bonifide rotation arms, be they one-year winners or long-term assets. They can afford one "rookie" in the rotation and have Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer as the current placeholders, plus whatever the decision is on Graterol (who I predict will start as a starter at AAA Rochester). The Twins do have $70 million to send, That is a lot of money. They should spend it, because winning will only increase the value of the franchise!

Aaron Sutton to be new Ft. Myers Miracle manager, from Montana State University!

Stealing a base happens because you need something to happen and you have the right mix of batter and player on base. At best, a ruenr steals a base. At worst, the guy on base is a threat and disturbs the pitcher. The Twins are fortunate to NOW have two guys potentially in the lineup who put the ball in play: Arraez and Astulido. But I like it more if the guys on abse have the ability to take that extra base than put themselves in a situation for injury (or an out) with a steal. And, yes...if the Twins do not hit home runs in 2020, then they have to do a better job of getting runners home when they have no or one out and guys in scoring position.

26 player rosters. So the Twins can carry Astulido. But they still need a viable part-time catcher. 1st base? Can bring back Cron. Still reasonable and he is...consistent. Do you move Sano to 1st? Do you have a rotation of Gonzalez and Garver, with Gordon and Adrianza as the backup infielders and not keep Cron? Do you get a viable power third abseman and make Sano fulltime at first. Looking beyond 2020, who's on first? Buxton, Kepler and Rosario make a nice outfield. You have names like Raley, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino in the wings. Unless the Twins trade Rosario, and patch in Cave and others, I would not want to be Wade or Cave. The Twins need a closer. Yes, Trevor ay made great strides. If you weren't in a position to compete I would trust him out of the gate, especially with Rogers still in the wings. But keeping him as set-up with Rogers makes the Twins bullpen strong, strong, strong. Assuming Duffey, Stashak, Romero, Littell round out the pen, you still have one opening...and so many choices! (I want Pat Neshek to return for one more round, and would choose him over Romo). The Twins have Berrios. They have Dobnak pencilled in. You can say Thorpe and Smeltzer may be ready, and Graterol is the wild card. But you still need two arms. Odorizzi is a five inning guy, Pineda misses the first 45 days (getting in shape). Yes, Bumgarner AND Wheeler would be wonderful. Trade Rosario for someone you can control. The Twins do have $70 million they can easily spend. They need to keep winning. Ticket prices will rise a bit. People are excited about the team. They need to build and to uild past just winning the division but going all-the-way.

Different levels for different fans. Like going to the State Fair, or making a Concert choice (or buying the Santa picture package of the kids)...you have x-amount of dollars to spend and figure out how to spend it. What are you going to spend for a game experience, including food, merchandise, parking. Amazingly you can always find discounted tickets. But like our Twins, I'm sure the success fo 2019 will see even more raised prices in certain areas. Disguise the raise in price, control the revenue. The Twins are actually coming off a couple of seasons of reduced season ticket sales, but in the end improved revenue because they controlled the single game ticket sales. The flipside is the availability of baseball games on most cable systems. If people can't watch it, they go in other directions.

Until they saw the medical history? How does that work for minor league players? Who pays the medical bills? And since you are not aprt of the player's union, what kinda longterm worries do you have about medical issues associated with play in the minors? Also, you mention that the minor leagues include the top 1% of ballplayers (as would, say, certain collegiae institutions). You are thrown togetehr with others who are the top in the sport. Yet the "extra" minor league teams allow more people to play and showcase themselves than if the minor league system is reduced...in which alternatives would remain either college ball or the indy leagues, and both don't really pay anything of worth...although one you do get an education for life after baseball. Which brings the question, how much thought ortalk do players, as a whole, have about "life after baseball." Especially when toiling in the minors, seeing wedded bliss on the horizon, and maybe the addition of a child or two in a family setting?

Depends on what the Twins do with Rosario. And right now, because he is NOT on the 40-man, he is behind Cave and Wade and possibly Raley, Rooker and Celestino for a callup. If the Twins really wanted to push him, they could've advanced him last September and gave him the at bats instead of Wade, LaMarre and Miller. But didn't. Service time is making a play, here. He will start at AAA. Yes, if any of the current starters go down I would rather see him get the chance than any of the other names above, but right now it won't happen, sadly.

He can be the next man up if you want to keep him as a starter. Eventually, if he can learn command like, say, Duffey, then he will be a solid middle relief specialist.

Front-loads would be wonderful. Ultimately, a player is looking at the total package when signing a longterm contract, and the new "wow" factor is to be able to opt-out or renegotiate. Haven't seen many of the front-loaded thingies out there. Have seen players walking away from some awesome guaranteed money, or turning their opt out into a further higher priced extension. I like what the Astros did when they had payroll flexibilty. Part with prospects and pick up major contracts (Verlander, Grienke examples). Then you also have the option of adding onto the contract with a smaller number of years. But if absorbing another teams siging of $30, you hope that the player is still productive. Right now, the Kepler and Polanco sigings look like genius, as did the Span signing of years ago. But we also remember such great signings as Joe Mays and Nick Blackburn. Ever since agents have entered the marketplace, baseball salary negotiations have taken on the look of divorce lawyers. Geta s much as you can, who cares about team loyalty, rebuilding, keeping the gang together. Let's just move onto someone else, go to the burbs and a bigger house, there is always someone out there willing to give me what I want, until there isn't. Our front office has a plan. They have had some flukes. In reality I don't think they say 2019 being like it was, but still surprised they didn't do a better job of weighing prospects to part with going all in. And, as we saw, you just never know. They gave some solid names to the Giants, only time will tell. I would sure like to see notes published 3-4 years from now showing front ofice evaluations of the Twins farm system. Like how us in Twins Daily territory can always go back and look at the pecking order from years ago and wonder where we went wrong in the evaluations, or right. Be interesting to see the long-term contracts handed out this year. And next year got the player union negotiations happening. If anything, baseball is showing that you don't have to overspend to be competitive (Twins, A's, Rays). But putting together a team is the core, and spending when necessary for a few key parts is a must, although you never know how those parts will play out over a season.

The Twins have always been pretty lucky. In the past they had Phil Roof who would come to spring training as a catching coach, and also utilize the talents on demand of Terry Steinbach. We forget that the Elizabethton Twins where every catcher seems to pass is headed by Jeff Reed and Ray Smith, both fine catchers.

Who are the minor league free agens leaving the Twins?

Gonsalves was an interesting move, unless the Twins know more than others do. If he is not a reliable alternative for 2020, then I guess adios is fine. But at some point you ask if his upside still wasn't above say, Hildenberger, Harper, Wisler or Poppen...not to mention Romero (who needs to be on the roster in 2020).

Some interesting names, here. Two MIGHT be added during the season (Kirilloff and Rooker). The whole point of adding someone to the 40-man is SUCH GREAT longterm potential and WILL THEY PLAY in 2020 and you need to have a chance to see that. Remember, the Twins ARE NOT a rebuilding team, so you have to judge EACH roster spot carefully. You can't have a half-dozen guys floating in the minors with a"maybe next year." If that is the case, don't add them. You should also be marekting players, especially those that will come to Rule 5 needs next season, in packages for usable pieces for NOW. It always pains me to see players just walk (i.e. Gonsalves is one, Stewart may be another). You wish you could've gotten something, anything. But, hey, who ever knows.

When looking at pitching, you would like to assume that Berrios will get even better. Who can give us what we received from Odorizzi, Pineda and Gibson. The ladder is not really that high on any of them. Do you go cheap, or spend. Bring back Odorizzi? Will he be the same in 2020? Scary thinking of giving him 3 years. I would like to think Dobnak or Smeltzer could easily replace what we got from Gibson. I would like to think Thorpe can advance and give us betetr than Perez. Also, Griffin Jax is a wild card.

The Twins still need to decide on Harper, Hildenberger - and possibly the real worth if Wisler. Also, a hard decision on Cron. Is LaMonte Wade still a keeper? They should add two free agent starters, one bullpen arm (a bonifide closer) and a backup catcher. Looking at the list, any of these names could also be reasonable trade bait. But also looking at the names, there aren't a lot of HARD adds. At this point, Raley is a keeper. Celastino is a possible. But you have to make a decision, then, on Wade (and Cave) for keeping. Of course, moving Rosario suddenly means you need someone in the outfield. Can Cave or Raley fill that bill? Wiel is an interesting choice, as the Twins have no bonafide backup for first base. Yes, they have guys who can play first. So depending on the Cron decision..... Griffin Jax is a keeper. He has as much of a chance to be an arm on the staff as Smeltzer, Poppen, Alcala. Throw in Thorpe and Alcala...you need to protect pitchers THAT CAN BE USED IN 2020. With that in mind, you want to keep Clay. Chalmers is a possibility, but don't see anyone grabbing him...yet. Look at who the Twins protected gong into 2019. The rotation strength was Gonsalves, Slegers, Mejia, DeJong, Stewart, Thorpe. They had Vasquez, Moya, Curtiss, Addison Reed on the roster and got mileage out of Magill, Parker and Morin. They added in people like Diplan, Torres and Adams. Sure, you run the risk of a High-A or even AA arm being grabbed and stashed for a year by a non-contender. That is why you trade these possible grab arms for usable pieces when the opportunity arises (or any of your potential minor league free agents...anyone have a list of who the Twins are losing as minor league free agents?). B;lankenhorn is also an intersting add. Again, depends on Cron. Is he ready to push to be a utility infielder, or can he step in if you need a third base replacement if Sano goes down? You already have Nick Gordon, who is kinda in a play or trade mode. I see adding Duran, Jax, Raley, Blankenhorn. Possibly Wiel, Celestino, Chalmers. Again, there is a lot of talent that could be used as tradebait, to get that catcher or one of your starters. But I would try and sign Robinson Chirinos as the second catcher. I would be happy with the free agent predictions on mlb trade rumos of Bumgarner and Odorizzi as starting arms, and Smith as a bullpen arm. I would trade for that third starter needed. Suddenly the Twins look pretty dynamite.

Gonsalves also claimed by the Mets. Coming of an injury, doubt he would've been ready for much pitching next season anyways. Falvey and Levine continue to clean house of the previous regime. Looking to see what kind of decision they make on Hildenberger, Ryan Harper, and perhaps Lamonte Wade, Sad they couldn't have packaged Stewart in some sort of deal last summer. Hard to think he was a #1 draft pick.