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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm, not sure what to say here. The real data in this post is the contact/hard hit chart, which shows progress in *both* for the last 20 games. It may be a small sample, but it doesn't scream a failing approach. Maybe the rest is all a mind game. Change the timing mechanism and Buxton's focus to contact, just to get him to slow down. If the swing still produces power, does it matter what Buxton thinks he is trying to do? I'd be curious to see a similar chart of LD% or launch angle before panicking. As for trying to "strip" Buxton of one of his 5 tools, if he doesn't have contact, that power tool doesn't matter.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm. The variables this year are more Buxton, Castro/Gimenez, a supposed emphasis on fastball command, and Allen able to employ his pitching philosophy unfettered, which seems to include sometimes throwing high in the zone. The last two seem the most likely to change LD%, but they are also the hardest to quantify. I would be curious to see whether a statistician thinks the sample size is big enough to know whether the LD% is a fluke.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Yup. Consistently scoring at least a few runs is one of the sustainable elements of the Twins' success so far. They have stayed top 10 in OBP all year.
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    So if an unteachably great curveball was worth 2 days of draft jujitsu, why is Tyler Duffey not getting a shot at the rotation? - Duffey's agent
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    So good to see these two erase defensive doubts. If the last week or so of Rosario and Buxton continue, look what we have under 27 years old: Grossman Vargas Sano Polanco Rosario Buxton Kepler Yep, 7 starters. Dozier and Castro and Escobar with plenty of productive years left. And Garver, Gordon, Adrianza, Granite, and Palka on the brink. That's a solid lineup now and for years to come. Nice.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    Ride this as long as you can. I would even like to see Polanco near the top of the lineup more often, as he can steal bases. Having multiple shortstops in the minors gives flexibility as Sano, Dozier, and Mauer all have moving positions or moving on in their near futures
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Buxton's struggles make me wonder something about spring pitching: we all know velocity doesn't max out until after spring training, but what about sharpness of breaking pitches? Is this the first time this year Buxton is seeing pitches like this? If the answer is yes, we have to wonder whether he is permanently overmatched.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    By definition, the difference between FIP and ERA is fielding. That is sustainable, unless you believe that our rangeless infield will be tested more. I don't know whether there are teams in our division that don't subscribe to the current "elevate" hitting approach, so we might be able to sustain some of this with our great outfield defense. But in general, I agree that we will come back to the pack.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    That 6-run inning was a good example of the pressure a great start puts on the other team. If the Royals have a 3 run lead, they go ahead and take their chances against the top of the lineup. Very nice to see patience at the plate and let the opposing bullpen implode.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    That last month his IsoP was over 350. I don't see it dropping below .200 again. .270/.330/.520 with more time in the lineup and therefore center field. Yes, a 7-WAR beast.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    I would like to say I called it http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24839-article-additions-by-subtractions/?view=findpost&p=580719 but I was chicken. Seriously they clearly refused to base any decisions on Spring Training. I guess we find out in June what the plan is. Sigh.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    With the need for Mauer to platoon, having Grossman able to bring an above-average bat to DH while Park takes first is a good fit. Look at that bench if Grossman leaves and Santana stays - Santana, Escobar, Gimenez, Adrianza. You shouldn't have to suffer DHing any of those. If you imagine Vargas on that bench but not Adrianza, now Santana plays way too often as the primary backup outfielder. No, assuming we don't need defensive help in the outfield, I like Grossman just fine.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm not going to pretend that this signing will turn the team around, but I do like the implied conversation with Falvey. Falvey seems to value input from all directions, and a "whatever it takes" attitude. This seems a contrast to the vibe of dismissiveness from Ryan, and the eye-rolling from Gardy when players (including Breslow in particular) would try to think outside of the box. Let's hope it pays long term dividends.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Go to the conclusions: - pine tar (coefficient of friction) doesn't help - wrist rotation at point of impact doesn't help - backspin is absolutely necessary for distance (what they mean by drag crisis occurs), but they find it generated by where on the ball the bat strikes (1 inch low is optimal), not by swing angle (i.e. not by chopping wood) - speaking of swing angle, slight uppercut is optimal, but matters less than striking below the center of the ball Not sure whether the 2011 study someone else referenced contradicts any of this.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree with your ranking of the ideas being tried out by MLB. I've always thought the best way to implement #3 is to reduce the roster by a player or 2, thus reducing bullpen flexibility. The players association would never allow it, though. Unless you combined it with expansion and left them with more net MLB players. In line with your #2, I could see a limit to the number of mid-inning pitching changes being helpful. I'm not sure what would be a good limit. Maybe 2 plus 1 per 3 extra innings?
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Although the numbers argue for players of Doziers profile to bat in the middle of the order, the specific Dozier seems to perform significantly better out of the leadoff, over a significant sample (according to the numbers in the article). Who knows why, but it seems like a real phenomenon. Should it be dismissed?
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    Another possibility that is pure speculation is that Falvine are preparing for a 13-man pitching staff, in which case Park is doubly redundant, since the bench must include a catcher, a shortstop, and a center fielder. A 13-man staff would be putting the Twins in front of the developing trend to end starts early and change pitchers freely. It also fits with the Twins preserving young arms, and having mediocre starters that struggle the third time through the lineup. I'm not sure I really think that's happening, but it is now a possibility. Thoughts?
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Making Grossman the everyday DH may be better than platooning him with Rosario or Kepler. Rosario hasn't shown a huge platoon split in the majors so far, and Kepler just needs to stay on the field. I know this probably means you would need Granite or Palka on the bench instead of Park, and that Vargas would get fewer at bats, and I'm OK with that.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Headed in the right direction, with the right people being pushed to stay on the roster by the almost-readies mentioned. Love the idea of being aggressive with Vielma. Quibbles would be not mentioning that May should get a chance to start, and that Park and ORourke will have to perform in order to stick. Also, I would not demand too much for Santana/Santiago. Having opportunities for the young starters is worth a lot in itself.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Thrylos hit the nail on the head IMO. Anyone over 27 who you might want in a rotation is trade bait, because they won't be around when the rebuilding is done. Does anyone really believe Gibson or Santiago will be sorely missed if you're putting together a playoff rotation for the Twins in 2019?
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    This article makes it pretty hopeless, and unfortunately that's the truth. Potential defensive improvements, all of which hurt the offense: Buxton in center, Rosario back to left, Polanco to second, Escobar at short, Murphy at catcher. Still leaves Sano at third and Kepler in right, and Escobar is only average defensively. Brutal choices left for the new guy in charge
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Don't forget Nick Gordon
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    You forgot the biggest one, IMO. Jim Pohlad put most of the blame on the players, and took accountability away from the front office. Thus, the mistakes (DFAing Arcia, playing time for veteran mediocrities, poor player development, etc) continued, and will continue into the foreseeable future. Murphy's Law is about preparing well for the worst, and the Twins are terrible at it.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Until #5 results in front office changes, the rest of these benefits are worthless. I hear nothing that sounds like ownership understands how bad this situation is
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    The return the twins should focus on for Nolasco, Plouffe, Jepsen, Dozier, Hughes, Suzuki, and Perkins is the empty roster spots. I'd be happy with that.
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