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Darius

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Everything posted by Darius

  1. Darius
    Years of high draft picks, because of awful teams, and a little bit of luck. I would say Terry Ryan always had a pretty good system of going out and getting young talent through the draft, etc. His problem, IMO, was how he managed things at the major league level (free agents, trades, call-ups, handling injuries, the country club, etc). Sure, it seems like there are a lot of prospects in the system. But, the Twins organization has shown a total inability to develop players and arrive at their potential as major league players. Also, the system isn't quite as attractive as it was a few years ago with the graduation of top 50 caliber guys like Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, etc. Whats left is pretty deep, but the highly touted guys with outrageous projections/comparisons aren't there anymore.
  2. Darius
    So, because of few stats, are similar to Parmelee, he's going to have a career like Parmelee? D'ohK. Not saying he's going to be more or less successful, but I'm sure you could find ways to also compare him to numerous very successful power hitters and use that to say "look how great he'll be." It's not like Parmelee was bad at AAA, either. He was very good at that level, as is Palka. You're saying these guys have similar positive attributes at AAA, thus both are/will be major league failures. I'm just not sure there is any logic behind that whatsoever. If you go back and look at Brian Dozier's minor league stats, for example....or Byron Buxton's on the other end of the spectrum....you'll see that sometimes they mean absolutely nothing. You just don't know until you see the player at that level. Some guys can elevate themselves or mature later than others. You may think Parmelee having a higher slugging % means something (it does....more doubles), but it certainly doesn't mean that Parmelee has the same raw power that Palka does.
  3. Darius
    Kirilloff should be added to the roster and be a September call-up. Will he be the #1 overall prospect in baseball on any lists next year? I think so. My comp would be Lou Gehrig.
  4. Darius
    I have to disagree with a lot of what you are saying, for a couple reasons. 1) it seems like Molitor really wants to get him out of the lineup. Maybe it's justified, that's not what I'm saying, but it's tough to get something going offensively with irregular at bats, and te pressure of know one or two bad games and you're done. 2). I think he's injured, so his performance last year isn't necessarily an outlier. Gleeman and Bonnes covered this recently. I think he can be a very good player, and is just having a tough go this year. We just saw Dozier get a chance to play through a year of being one of the worst players in the American League. No lesson learned about panicking? Also, Polanco is NOT the shortstop of the future. They need to find another spot for him. Polanco is totally inept at SS. Whatever the FO and Molly have been doing with the defense lately is terrible. People complain endlessly about the pitching being awful, but it wouldn't look quite so bad if they weren't fielding terrible defenders at every position on the field (other than 1B and RF....the least important positions defensively).
  5. Darius
    I'll be shocked if we see Gonsalves before September 2017, if at all in 2017. But here's to being optimistic. Maybe if they keep May in the Pen, Hughes doesn't return next year, they don't go to arbitration with Santiago, and whichever bargain bin starter they sign in the offseason gets hurt. But, who knows. Maybe our new GM will break the Twins mold. Not saying they should or shouldn't, just don't see it happening.
  6. Darius
    As a general rule of thumb, the farther away from the majors a player is, the better a player he'll be, and thus should be moved through the system faster.
  7. Darius
    Kirilloff 0-5? Does he repeat rookie ball next year, or do they release him outright after the season is over? Also, what's the deal with Maloney? He should be with the big club. Fire some person in the organization and hire Trump!
  8. Darius
    Kirilloff 0-5? Does he repeat rookie ball next year, or do they release him outright after the season is over? Also, what's the deal with Maloney? He should be with the big club. Fire some person in the organization and hire Trump!
  9. Darius
    I wamt to preface this by saying Kepler is my favorite player in the Twins organization. He is coming back down to earth now that his scouting reports are solidifying. Let's see if he can make adjustment number one before crowning him. On the flip side, I still think Buxton is going to be a good player. I've been saying for a while, his expectations were out of control (Trout comparisons, etc). I think he'll hit enough (something like .250-.270, 10-15 HR, .750 OPS, 30-40 steals, 80+ runs), while winning gold gloves (at the very least, finishing top 2-3 annually) in CF. For the casual fan, with unrealistic expectation, that will still result in "bust" talk. But, if his offense even approaches my estimate, he'll quietly be one of the most valuable players in the league. It may take him a couple of more years to get there, but he'll get there. He's still supremely talented. That hasn't changed. We're just finally seeing him for what he is, compared to some some psychedelic video-game statistic hallucination resulting from the absurd projections/comparisons of the 19 year-old rookie ball kid.
  10. Darius
    Dozier is a good player, but there is a capable, cheap, replacement in Polanco. For a team this desperate for starting pitching, I think it would be foolish to turn down some impact starting pitching prospects if that's actually a possibility). I'm not advocating trading him Willy-nilly, it would have to big, but you always sell high rather riding an investment into the ground. The longer you wait, and the closer you get to the expiration of his team friendly deal, the more you give up in terms of potential returns. What happens when he goes into another year-long slump? It'll just turn into another Mauer-like situation. People will scream that you have keep him. Then, after a huge extension (he'll certainly demand a large one he keeps this up), he'll start to get old/accumulate injuries, and people will scream about his terrible contract. I don't see a big extension for a 30-something year old, or letting him walk after his contract as viable options. This team isn't going to compete next year without pitching. So, what do you do? This team has sat on its hands with players like this for years now, and what has it gotten them? A few cheap division titles, playoff embarrassments, and dozens of losing seasons. Also, many people wanted him off The team 3 months ago. Now, potential MVP votes are being discussed. Not saying that's right or wrong, just some perspective on small-ish sample sizes and how fast things can change. Pretty crazy.
  11. Darius
    He made the right decision, granted, but the effort wasn't really there, which is embarrassing. I do think the batter should've been called out. If he strays from the line that far trying to avoid the tag, it's an out. If a batter strikes out, the catcher drops the ball, and te batter has given himself up, it's an out without a throw. Why it's different because Eades dropped the ball, and because the batter turned his back and gave himself up as opposed to avoiding the tag, I don't know. I'm sure the manager had a few words.
  12. Darius
    His BABIP can't really be compared to your average player. I haven't checked, but I'm guessing he's also in the top 5 in average exit velocity, and typically has quality launch angles. When the ball consistently comes off your bat at 100 mph, you're going to have a higher BABIP. When you don't shorten up for the sake of putting the ball in play, you're going to have a higher BABIP (with more Ks....and fewer double plays). When you hit the ball over, or off of, the wall, you're going to have a higher BABIP. If his K rate comes down, it probably means he's not hitting the ball as hard X number of times over the course of a season. That certainly will bring his BABIP down, meaning you're only fractionally increasing average with every unit of decreased Ks. It's not going to be a 1 for 1. Thinking that a decrease in his Ks will automatically lead to an increase in all other statistics (avg, home runs, OBP, etc), is wishful thinking. It's more like a balanced scale. If you take a weight off of one side, it also has an effect on the other side. In this case, I don't like that trade off. I want the high OBP, high BABIP, high power numbers, and high run production. Sure, the K rate looks ugly. The BABIP may appear unsustainable related to player X (Joe Mauer, for example, the polar opposite). But, you have to go well beyond that to get the full picture of what his approach brings to the table, and the cause/effect of some of these metrics, and the limitations of the player. They mean different things for different players, and can't be used with a cookie-cutter mentality.
  13. Darius
    I think everyone panicking about his Ks would be well served to read Gleeman's BP article from a few weeks ago. He puts it much more eloquently, and backs it up quite well, but the long and short of it: His Ks could be cut down if his goal was to do just that, but at what cost? Making contact for the sake of making contact isn't going to make him a better player. Sano puts pressure on pitchers by being a true 3-outcome player (home run, walk, strike out). But, he doesn't just swing at everything. He works a favorable count, gets a pitch to hit, and swings the bat with the intent to do damage. He goes on to explain the pros and cons. I think Gleeman is dead on. Sure, he could shorten up and make contact more often. That approach will bring some more singles, and a slightly higher batting average. But, with that approach is also likely going to trickle down as fewer walks (because he'll protect more on borderline pitches), a lower OBP (or wash at best), fewer home runs, lower slugging metrics, and a lower OPS over the long-term. His average would go up slightly, but his run production would go down. He's already an elite power hitter with elite discipline. He applies pressure to pitchers like nobody this team has had for a long, long time, and it helps others in the lineup. He's 23 and will only refine that approach over the next few years. On top of all of that, I think his offensive performance took a hit because of the pressures of the whole defensive debacle. If not for that, I think his full-162 numbers would look a little better right now. For the love of God, Sano, do not change your approach for the sake of striking out less. It's kind of similar to Dozier. Some say he became pull happy, and sometimes goes through brutal stretches, but right now you're seeing the reward. Would you rather have him hit .280/.290 with lower slugging metrics (fewer home runs, doubles), fewer RBI, etc? I wouldn't.
  14. Darius
    I'll take the 5 RBI, and hitting yourself into scoring position, over 5 singles any day of the week (unless the the 5 singles are accompanied by more hard run production, which they weren't). What good are the five hits if he only scored once and doesn't drive anything in (obviously, not knowing how things went in terms of advancing runners for other to knock in)? One walk could produce as much. It's a flashy box score and good for Avg/OBP, but really doesn't do much in terms of of changing the number on the scoreboard, which is the ultimate goal. Granite.
  15. Darius
    He doesn't have anything left. Sano, Polanco, Vargas, and Plouffe are all better players right now. Probably even Park.
  16. Darius
    So Vargas hits two home runs in game 1, is putting up a 400+ OBP in limited action this year, and doesn't play game 2 to get Plouffe, who will be gone in a month and a half, and his smoking .280 OBP in the lineup? Just thought that was an interesting decision. I'll bet he just loves playing for Molly.
  17. Darius
    No. He's been OK. But, his numbers are still inflated by that unbelievable first few weeks. That clearly wasn't sustainable. If we take that month away, and he's more like a .700 less OPS guy (just a guess, didn't crunch any numbers), we're likely not having this conversation. He's got great plate discipline, but he won't really hit much (not for a corner outfielder, anyway). There isn't much to speak of defensively. His speed isn't going to help you. He's just not really good (relatively) at anything. He's not really going to hurt you, but he's not really a requisite piece on real contender either. When it comes down to fourth outfielder, I'd rather have a guy like Walker or Palka, who could have elite power, or a guy like Santana who can run the bases for you late in games and play multiple spots (including some infield in an emergency). Not that any of those guys are better all around players right now, but ideally, I want an elite "tool" to use off the bench (whether speed, power, or all around defense) for situational things. You can't really sub him for anyone in the ninth inning and upgrade anything, other than maybe ability to draw a walk.
  18. Darius
    They don't have to get Ramos or Weiters, but there has to be someone available, whether free agent or trade, that can put out a stolen base attempt once every blue moon. Stolen bases are a killer late in close games.
  19. Darius
    It likely has more to do with pitchers having better stuff, better control, and better command as he advanced levels. If anything, you would think getting hit in the grill would make him more timid at the plate, and more likely to bail on inside pitches, rather than swing at more of them. But, who knows, you could be right. Some people are strange, and there is no way of knowing. I do know he's very talented. Lefties tend to like the ball down and/or in. He can go barrel one up anywhere. If he can learn to control the zone, he could be special.
  20. Darius
    Why is JRM still in the conversation? He can't get anything going offensively in AAA at age 26. His defense isn't good enough to carry him. I don't plan on getting anything from him going forward. What they need to do next year is bring in someone defensively competent from outside of the organization. Not sure what the free agent class looks like, but I don't even care if the guy knows how to hold a bat, as long as he can control the running game at a semi-high level.
  21. Darius
    I don't think it's an infield crunch at all. Plouffe isn't that good. Mauer needs more days off. Vargas hasn't shown he can sustain offensive competence (and isn't much to speak of defensively), and the same could be said for Park. That leaves Sano. A few warm bodies does not a crunch make.
  22. Darius
    I'd certainly do my best to move Milone, Plouffe, Suzuki, and Grossman. I don't think any of them will/would get any serious interest. I hope that they'd hang on to Vargas, Santana, Park, Escobar, Park, Kintzler, and Tonkin. They still have upside, and/or can be useful in the future.
  23. Darius
    Can't really argue with this one. I'm a big proponent of letting players figure it out in the big leagues, especially a guy with his physical tools. But, you just can't justify giving him big league at bats anymore. He isnt showing any signs of progress. At this point, you can only hope getting some confidence back will get him back on track in Spetember (he's already shown he can hit down there, that's not the issue).
  24. Darius
    Agree, these guys are still kids. Baseball doesn't jive too well with this instant-gratification focused society. Sano coming up and putting up video game numbers last year just makes it that much harder to watch him go through adjustment periods. Sano is an interesting case right now, though. You have to wonder if he would be performing this poorly if he just DH'd all year. IMO, I don't think so. I think they really screwed with his confidence this year. He's at the point now where he is trying to force it. As for Trevor May, that guy needs to get with a sports psych. Although, it's kind of fun to watch him get all worked up and unravel every other night.
  25. Darius
    That was pretty hilarious. I didn't know a professional athlete could be that uncoordinated/unathletic.
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