Tom Froemming

They say ignorance is bliss, and there’s plenty of validity to that statement. You ever want to enjoy a hot dog again? Don’t look up what’s in them or how they're made. And if you want to believe the Twins will have a good pitching staff, you’ll want to stop reading this article. There’s no questioning the performance of the pitching up to this point, the staff has been nothing short of spectacular despite the familiar personnel. Why?Jason Castro? He’s certainly been a help. Better defense? There’s no doubt that's improved over last year. But, as much as I hate to say it, it’s possible Twins pitchers have also been lucky. Usually I despise bringing the “L” word into conversation about major league baseball. These are the greatest players in the world; it seems borderline offensive to attribute their successes or failures to chance. But … if there was ever a situation in which to apply that term it may be to the 2017 Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff. Here are some of the numbers heading into Thursday afternoon’s game: Twins Starting Pitchers ERA 3.18 2nd in the AL FIP 4.20 11th in the AL xFIP 4.60 13th in the AL Twins Relief Pitchers ERA 2.64 4th in the AL FIP 3.61 9th in the AL xFIP 3.54 5th in the AL Overall, the results have been outstanding. The Twins have the best team ERA in the AL at 2.98, which is second-best in all of baseball (Dodgers 2.88). Pretty hard to spin that negative, right? Well, if you take a deeper look into the numbers, as the FIP and xFIP suggest, there are plenty of reasons to believe this has all been a mirage. Twins pitchers allowed the worst BABIP in the AL last season, .319. This year, they have the lowest mark in the game by 15 points (.233). Only six teams last year surrendered a BABIP under .290, with the Cubs leading the league with a freakishly-low .255 mark. The improved defense has certainly helped Twins pitchers, but is the 86-point improvement sustainable? They’re still coaxing the least amount of soft contact in the AL (16.6 percent), so it’s not like they’ve done any better at pitching to contact. The Twins have also managed to leave 79.7 percent of opposing base runners stranded so far. That’s an 11.4 percent increase over 2016. Last season, only five teams had a LOB% above even 75 percent. The 2015 Cardinals eclipsed 79 percent in LOB%, but the last team to accomplish that feat before then was Cleveland in 1968. It’s also worth noting that the Twins still have the lowest K/9 (6.75) and fifth-lowest K% (18.6) in baseball. Strikeouts aren’t everything, but it’s really difficult to have a good pitching staff without at least average strikeout rates. Over the past five seasons, teams that finished in the bottom five in K% also finished in the bottom five in ERA 60 percent of the time, and the bottom 10 in ERA 84 percent of the time. The only team to finish bottom five in K% and post an above average ERA over that span was the 2016 Brewers, who finished 13th in ERA. Again, all those figures are from before the Twins' 6-2 loss to Cleveland this afternoon, in which Ervin Santana had a great start but the bullpen surrendered five runs over three innings. Depressed yet? Well then let’s go back to the nice shiny numbers. Sustainable or not, the Twins have been pretty good at preventing runs thus far in 2017. See, willful ignorance can be very pleasant. Click here to view the article

Noooooooooooooo!

We looking at the same graphic? I see one sure strike called a ball and like seven pitches out of the zone called strikes. The solid box is the actual strike zone, right? Or am in misinterpreting that?

Hector Santiago is super fun to analyze. His attack plan and batted ball profile defy conventional wisdom. Yet here he is, a former 30th-round pick with so-so stuff in his seventh season as a big league starter. I suspected Castro would be particularly valuable for Hector, glad to see that's working out so far. It's really tough for lefties to get that outside strike called against right-handed batters. If Castro can continue to make that happen, I think we'll see Santiago take advantage. He's smart, that's how he's made it this far. We're sure to see some starts where his command fails him and he gives up a ton of walks and homers, but it's pretty great to see a 1.47 ERA right now, especially since Nolasco leads the league in HRs allowed (7) and Meyer has a 4.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in Triple A. Atta boy Antony!

Looks like I'm in the minority, but I'm of the mind that you keep a player in the spot where he could provide the most value until you're convinced he will be unusable in that role. Maybe Duffey as a starter was a lost cause, but if we're gonna give Kyle Gibson 101 starts, I would've been fine giving Duffey more than 36. Yes, he was bad last year, but maybe with the new evaluation team and Castro/Gimenez able to help we would have seen something extra from Tyler. That's a great tidbit about his change in positioning on he rubber, you never know how little stuff like that can make big differences. I would have put him in the No. 5 spot, but if it turns out he's a great reliever I'm not gonna get too worked up about it. But, you're never going to convince me a pitcher can provide more value throwing 70 innings instead of 200. Yes, high-leverage innings are the most important, but if your starters get blown out it's pretty tough to get use out of a great pen. The first inning is the highest-leverage inning of the entire game in my eyes.

It would be nice to know when the new front office's "evaluation period" ends. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how everything plays out. I didn't have any problem with Berrios starting the year in Rochester, but how many more great starts does he have to put together to get back into the rotation? I agree that Mejia should probably get a long look, at least a handful more starts regardless of results, so it's pretty tough to see Jose rejoining the rotation anytime soon, barring an injury. It's a nice problem to have. I'm still nervous about the current rotation depth behind Berrios, though. Pretty nuts that Tonkin has pitched in just two games and Breslow has logged just 1.2 IP thus far. Seems silly to me that they've stuck with the 13-man pitching staff for so long. Very interested to see how this all plays out ...

Rain, rain, go away. Let all the baseball teams play! The Twins managed to get both their games in so far this weekend despite some rain at Target Field, but Saturday the Rochester Red Wings got rained out for the third time and wet weather impacted the Cedar Rapids Kernels' game for the second night in a row. Find out what else happened around the Twins' minor leagues on Saturday.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester, Syracuse (Postponed) These two teams will play an Easter Sunday doubleheader. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 10, Jacksonville 1 Box Score Off to a 3-5 start, the Lookouts had only been averaging 2.75 runs per game. Saturday night Chattanooga topped that mark in two separate innings, crushing the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 10-1. The game was scoreless through the first four innings before the Looks tallied two runs in both the fifth and eight innings and three runs in the sixth and ninth innings. Felix Jorge pitched 5.2 innings, giving up one run on just three hits. He walked three and struck out four. Over his 11 starts in Double A last season, Jorge averaged a meager 3.9 K/9, but through his first two starts of 2017 he has seven strikeouts over 9.2 innings. Jorge almost ran into trouble in the fourth inning, thanks in part to two passed balls by catcher Jose Gonzalez. The 29-year-old backstop made up for those miscues in a big way, drawing a leadoff walk in the fifth inning and later coming around to score the game's first run. The next inning, Gonzalez hit a three-run homer. Nick Gordon, who started at second base, continued his hot start. He was on base three times in six trips to the plate, drawing a pair of walks to go with a two-run single. Engelb Vielma and Ryan Walker each had two hits. Luke Bard (2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K) and Nick Burdi (1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K) combined to throw 3.1 shutout innings out of the bullpen. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 4, Daytona 8 Box Score Fort Myers got off to a great start, tacking on two runs in the top of the first on Zander Wiel's Little League home run. It was officially scored a triple, but the Miracle's first baseman made the full trip around the bases, scoring on a throwing error. Things didn't go as well from there, as Daytona answered with two first-inning runs of their own before tacking on two more in the second. Fort Myers pulled within a run in the fourth inning, but Daytona had one more big inning in them, scoring three runs in the fifth to put the game out of reach. Daniel Kihle, Sean Miller and Nelson Molina each had a pair of hits. Kihle hit his second home run of the season. The triple was Wiel's tenth of his career in just 150 professional games. Keaton Steele gave up seven runs, but only five earned, over five innings for Fort Myers. The bright spot on the mound for the Miracle was Sam Clay, who pitched a perfect eighth inning while striking out two. Clay had a disastrous first appearance of 2017, but has bounced back to throw three shutout innings to go with five strikeouts. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 0, Wisconsin 6 (5 1/2 Innings) Box Score The start of the game was delayed 45 minutes, and there were other delays throughout the contest. As if the rain wasn't enough to contend with, Cedar Rapids also faced off against a pitcher who had no-hit stuff. Timber Rattlers' starter Braden Webb had a perfect game going until Mitchell Kranson hit a two-out triple in the fourth. The Kernels added just one more hit, an Aaron Whitefield double, before the game was called. Kernels starter Alex Schick surrendered six runs over his 3.1 innings of work. Domenick Carlini made his Cedar Rapids debut, throwing 2.2 scoreless innings while racking up four strikeouts. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Felix Jorge (5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Jose Gonzalez (2-for-4, HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R) SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Syracuse @ Rochester (12:35 CT, Game 1): Jason Wheeler (7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) Syracuse @ Rochester (Game 2): Aaron Slegers (0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP) Chattanooga @ Jacksonville (2:05 CT): Paul Clemens (6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) Fort Myers @ Daytona (12:05 CT): RHP Randy LeBlanc (0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) Cedar Rapids: OFF Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Saturday's games. Click here to view the article

Turley, 27, last pitched for Somerset in the Atlantic League. He was a starter, and set a league record for Ks in a postseason game (14). While he was fantastic there (2.02 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 5.08 K/BB), he started the season at Double A Portland and struggled (4.29 ERA, 1.514 WHIP, 1.71 K/BB).

Dazzle sounds fairly confident they'll play ... which makes me nervous

Sooo they're not playing this game tonight, right? Anybody hear anything or have any guesses?

Here's hoping. Even worse than the overall record last year was the fact it felt like the season was over barely after it had started. Coming out of May with a 15-36 (.294) record was a tough pill to swallow. One more note in regard to all the home games, we can probably expect Miguel Sano to continue his hot start. So far in his young career, Sano has a .921 OPS at Target Field (.791 on the road).

FWIW Berrios is working on some mechanical adjustments. On the Red Wings' pregame show just now he said he's trying to ditch that wrist curl thing he does with his pitching hand behind his back at the start of his delivery. Said he's been doing that his whole life, so it has been difficult to change that habit. Primary reason for the change is they think it will help his command, but they're also hoping it make it less likely he'll tip his pitches.

The phrase taking things one day at a time is a baseball cliche for a reason: Looking ahead can be the kiss of death. After an 0-9 start to last season, the Twins are 6-3 this year. So they're going to be much better this season, right? Well, the marathon of a season has just begun ... but maybe. Right now, all we know is the team is off to a good start and if you look ahead at the schedule, as dangerous as that may be, there is reason for optimism.Friday night, the Twins start a 10-game homestand, which is tied for their longest of the season. In fact, 16 of the team's next 22 games will be played at Target Field and 28 of the next 43. Since Target Field opened in 2010, the Twins have a .461 winning percentage at home versus a .425 mark on the road. If we just assume the team plays to those averages over the next 43 games, they'll go something like 19-24. In other words, they'd head into June a couple games under .500. That would be pretty exciting stuff from a team that some idiot (me) suggested could lose another 100 games this year. I realize that's probably about the least-sensical prediction method you could come up with, but the point is this: Even if the Twins play exactly like they have over the past six seasons (poorly), they should still have a respectable record a month and a half from now. This early, it's hard to draw many conclusions, but we should know a lot more about this 2017 Twins team a week from today. Despite the home-heavy schedule ahead, the Twins face some tough tests. They're going to get a feel for what's it's like facing the cream of the crop in the American League. Not that a team coming off 103 losses can talk, but the Royals, White Sox and Tigers aren't exactly projected to be world beaters this season. Chicago is in town this weekend, but Monday the Twins open a four-game series against Cleveland. A week later, the Twins travel to play three games against the Rangers and the first weekend of May the Twins host the Red Sox. The results against those three defending division champions should serve as an excellent measuring stick to determine if this hot start for the Twins is legit or a mirage. It's also worth noting that things could get especially difficult in June. The Twins open the month with a 10-game West Coast road trip and play a total of 37 games in 39 days before heading into the All-Star break. Luckily, sandwiched in the middle of that streak is another 10-game homestand. But hey, that's getting a little ahead of ourselves. For now, let's just soak up the sunshine of 6-3 and look forward to seeing the Twins at Target Field on a regular basis through the end of May. We may not be able to know how it's all going to play out, but it sure has been a fun start. ADDITIONAL NOTES -The Twins scored 11 runs in their victory over Detroit Thursday. The 2016 Twins scored a grand total of 14 runs over their first nine games and didn't score double digits in a game until Jun 21, when they beat the Phillies 14-10. -The White Sox already started some measure of a rebuild this offseason, but if the Royals and/or Tigers get off to poor starts they could also go into fire sale mode. In KC, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are all set to become free agents at the end of the season. And there is something of a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the Tigers after the death of their excellent owner Mike Ilitch, who was always willing to stretch the payroll if he felt it increased the likelihood of his team winning a World Series. This year, maybe more than ever, it's very important to get off to a good start in the AL Central. The division already doesn't look particularly strong, but in the second half a few of the teams could gut their rosters and become complete pushovers. -Next month, the Twins will play 18 of their 27 games at home. Last May, they played just 10 of 27 at Target Field. The terrible start to 2016 crippled that team, but having a tough schedule in May made it very difficult for them to get things back on track. -On this date a year ago, I wrote a blog post at Twins Daily titled Finding Hope At 0-8. In it, I did some similar nonsensical math, saying the team was really only four or five wins off the pace from what many of us had expected, meaning they only had to win one extra game a month than we had originally projected them for. Things ... um ... did not work out that way. This is a great opportunity to point out that anybody can start up their own blog at Twins Daily and write whatever they'd like. Even if you write something that ends up being comically wrong, like I did, there's a chance you could get your article promoted to the main site. At the very least, hundreds (if not thousands) of Twins Daily readers will read what you've written, you'll get some comments and I promise you'll have fun. Click here to view the article

This is a great point on Stewart. I honestly do not believe Kohl is trying to strike anybody out. I think he's trying to be efficient. That strategy makes a lot of sense for him up to this point in his career. Coming into the draft, one of the biggest question marks surrounding Stewart involved the fact he has Type 1 diabetes. It seemed there were some questions surrounding his durability. While we would have loved to see him dominate, he has certainly answered any questions about his ability to handle a starter's workload. He's gone from 87 to 129.1 to 143.2 innings pitched the past three seasons. And he has been successful, so there was little incentive for him to adjust his approach. But you hit the nail on the head, if he gets clobbered like this on a regular basis we'll see him make some adjustments and try harder to miss bats.

If you want evidence that Paul Molitor has influence over the 25-man roster, I think the fact that Danny Santana is still around is all you need. He's been one of the worst players in baseball for two years and had a poor spring. Hard for me to believe the front office would have been keen on keeping him (though we'll see what happens once Ehire Adrianza is healthy).

I'd send Duffey down to get him stretched out. If extra bullpen arms are needed eventually, there are a host of other guys should be able to step in and contribute in the middle innings. There are very few Plan B guys for the rotation right now. Berrios sticks out, for sure, but I think teams use an average of something like 10 starters a season. The only other minor league SPs on the 40 man right now are Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero. Other options are guys like Nick Tepesch, Jason Wheeler, Paul Clemens and David Hurlbut.

I'm really intrigued by Matt Albanese. He's healthy now, correct? Anybody see him on the backfields at all during spring training?

I forgot to congratulate Todd Van Steensel, who has been promoted to Chattanooga. Pretty sure he had the craziest work commute ever, which he shared on Twitter today (@toddvs35).

The Twins minor league Opening Day was subdued by weather postponements and lack of offense, but their affiliates kicked things into gear on Friday. A top prospect hit a walk off, there was a dominating pitching performance and even the team that didn't pick up a victory made a valiant comeback attempt. Here's a look at everything that happened in the Twins minor league system on Friday.RED WINGS REPORT Rochester, Syracuse (POSTPONED) Rainstorms and even some snow has hit Syracuse, wreaking havoc on the Red Wings' season-opening plans. The first two games of their series in Syracuse have been cancelled, but Saturday's forecast shows only a 20 percent chance of precipitation (though the high is just 47 degrees). Assuming they (finally) get their opener in, Jose Berrios will face off against Joe Ross (3.43 ERA over 19 starts with the Nationals last season) in as good a minor league pitching matchup as you could hope to find. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 4, Mobile 3 (10 innings) Box Score Nick Gordon gave the Lookouts their first win of the season in dramatic fashion, hitting a game-tying sac fly in the bottom of the seventh before driving in Tanner English on a walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th inning. Gordon finished 3-for-4 at the plate and started a pair of 6-4-3 double plays in the field. English, who reached safely three times on the night, led off the 10th with a double before Gordon, the very next batter, ended it. Dan Rohlfing hit a home run and Travis Harrison just missed one of his own, smacking a double off the wall. Minor league veteran Matt Tracy started for the Lookouts and went 5 2/3 innings while giving up three runs (just one earned) on seven hits. He struck out four and walked one. Nick Burdi came on in relief, and after his first pitch got by Rohlfing for a run-scoring passed ball he settled in to throw 1 1/3 perfect innings with one strikeout. Raul Fernandez handled both the eighth and ninth innings before John Curtiss came in for the 10th, picking up the win in the process. MIRACLE MATTERS Ft. Myers 8, Jupiter 11 Box Score Sam Clay had a night to forget, but the Miracle offense broke out after being shut out in their opener. Last season's Midwest League batting champ Luis Arraez had three hits out of the leadoff spot, Zander Wiel drove in three runs and catcher Brian Navarreto hit a solo home run. Fort Myers trailed 4-1 entering the seventh inning, but Clay surrendered six runs in 2/3 of an inning. There will surely be better days ahead for the former fourth-round pick, who made all of his 24 appearances last season as a starter. His teammates did their best to pick him up, but fell just short. Down 11-1 in the eighth inning, Doug Mientkiewicz's boys showed no signs of giving in, as they rallied back for four runs, followed by another three runs in the top of the ninth. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 4, Beloit 0 (7 innings) Box Score In Game 1 of their doubleheader with the Snappers, Eduardo Del Rosario turned in a dominating performance for the Kernels. The wiry 21-year-old right-hander threw six shutout innings while striking out seven and walking one. Del Rosario surrendered just two hits, one of which was on a bunt. Cedar Rapids scored three of their runs in the top of the second inning. Lewin Diaz led off with a double and scored on Jaylin Davis' two-bagger, which was followed by another RBI double by Mitchel Kranson. Davis later added a sacrifice fly in the third inning. Colton Davis pitched the seventh, sealing the shutout for the Kernels. Cedar Rapids 2, Beloit 3 (7 innings) Box Score The Kernals couldn't quite finish off the doubleheader sweep, as Beloit won it on a walk-off double. Lewin Diaz went 2-for-3 with a double and drove in both runs for Cedar Rapids. Tyler Wells followed up Del Rosario's masterful performance with some swing-and-miss stuff of his own, but he also struggled with his command. Over four innings, Wells had six strikeouts, but he also walked four and hit a batter. That wildness is uncharacteristic of the big right-hander, as he issued just 17 walks over 47 1/3 innings last season. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Eduardo Del Rosario, Cedar Rapids Kernals (6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K) Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Nick Gordon, Chattanooga Lookouts (3-for-4, 2 RBI, walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th) SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester @ Syracuse - (12:05 CST) RHP Jose Berrios Mobile @ Chattanooga - (6:15 CST) - RHP Fernando Romero Jupiter @ Fort Myers (5:05 CST) - TBD Beloit @ Cedar Rapids (5:05 CST) - RHP Sean Poppen Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Friday's games. Click here to view the article

Can we talk about how stupid the White Sox's new stadium name is? It changed from U.S. Cellular Field to Guaranteed Rate Field for 2017. I get Target Field is named after a sponsor too, but at least it sounds kinda cool.

Oddly enough, in 2015 the team had its worst walk rate during that excellent month of May. March/April: 7.1 BB% May: 6.1 June: 7.0 July: 7.0 Aug.: 7.0 Sept./Oct.: 9.2 And last year's gawd awful team drew significantly more walks than that 2015 squad, 513-439.