Don Walcott

It's been a while since there was any actual news. I keep checking different sites to see if there's any news, and all there is are commentators speculating about where Darvish might end up. Then, I check Twins Daily to see if there's even a rumor going around, and I read up on the same debates that have been going on for years. Don't get me wrong, I still enjoy reading the debates among passionate and intelligent Twins fans. I'm just worn out. I'm just so tired. . . . Tired of waitin. . . .

Is Pelfrey available?

By K/9, Archer was better than Kershaw. By K% Kershaw was better. That's because Kershaw doesn't allow as many walks and hits. Archer had more Ks per out recorded, and Kershaw had more Ks per batter faced. I'd rather know % of Ks per batter faced.

Wait till he gets going!

I'm so tired, tired of waiting, tired of waiting for Yuuuuuuu.

From MLB.com: Pohlad, speaking to fans during a question-and-answer session during TwinsFest at Target Field on Saturday, was asked about Darvish and indicated he's interested in signing the ace. "I'm on board with that," Pohlad said while on stage, bringing cheers from Twins fans at the event. "There are some interesting names and some interesting opportunities there, but I'm as intrigued by [Darvish] as anybody and attracted to [signing him] as anybody." Twins president Dave St. Peter echoed Pohlad's comments that the club remains engaged with Darvish, who is the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market. "There is mutual interest in seeing if something makes sense for both parties," St. Peter said. "We are not there yet today but that could accelerate here in the near future." Derek Falvey, the club's chief baseball officer, indicated on Friday that the Twins have room in their budget for a frontline starter even after committing $16.75 million over two years to reliever Addison Reed last week. "Any player we add, there won't be a budget limitation," Falvey said. "If we bring the right deal to Jim, he'll support it."

I want to see Polanco hit .300/.350/.450 while playing decent SS. That would be huge for this team.

Cole to the Astros. So they are out. Time to get this deal done!!

Please, you guys, no sexting.

Although there were some bright spots like Hildenberger, Rogers and Busenitz, I think we can count on this bullpen imploding if we don't make any more moves this off season. Kind of like Rodney, last year, we were lucky to have the bullpen implosions take place in big ways in relatively few games, rather than in smaller ways in more games. I don't know if Rodney was lucky in this same way or good. I hope I'm wrong, and he's good and the Twins bullpen also is good, and they don't lose us a lot of games. But I think that will happen if we don't sign at least one more proven reliever.

I think we could have done better than Rodney. I've never thought he was that good, and I don't care that they managed to not spend very much money to get him. But I hope to be proven wrong. And I hope they sign one more good reliever.

I’ve never argued pitch to the score in favor of Jack, though I have opinions on the so-called studies about that. And I’ve never argued about most wins in the 80s. Not once.

As for Wins, one of the reasons the statistic is flawed, is that 5-inning wins are the same as 9-inning wins. Fun fact in this discussion that I've never heard from anyone else is that if you counted only wins where the pitcher went 7 innings, Jack had 1 more win that Glavine in about 155 less starts over his career. Jack earned his wins more than anyone in his era and ever since, going 7 innings in 86% of his wins, and going 9 innings in 43%. He has very few cheap wins.

Not exactly. With FIP, it hurts if he didn't try to strike every batter out. If he was told he was only going 7 innings, he'd probably have had more strikeouts. This is evidenced by the fact that he had a higher strikeout percentage in the 9th inning than in any other inning. His 8th inning was his worst inning in a lot of ways. So it would appear that he was saving something to close out games. If he had gone full out, knowing he was not expected to go deep into games, he would have had better FIP and a better ERA. If WAR were a truly cumulative stat, you'd take into account all of the things I listed above because no replacement pitcher could, say, throw 7 consecutive complete games or three consecutive shutouts, or even approach the results Jack achieved in the late innings. There'd at least be a leverage component to the calculations, which there are for relief pitchers, but not for starting pitchers. But it definitely would be a difficult calculation, and would likely involve even more questionable assumptions than are already inherent in the calculations through things like ballpark effect and defense. That Jack was so dominant in the 9th inning, brings up his 7-9 stats relatively. So you have to unpack that analysis a bit. Moreover, one of the reasons pitchers are taken out of games is to preserve them for the next game, and for the course of the season. Despite his freakish stamina, I have to believe that some of the runs he gave up in early innings were a result of having been overworked in previous games. Of course, there's no way of knowing for sure, but common sense and experience would say that's the case. One problem with ERA is we assume that it means a pitcher averages a certain number of runs per nine innings pitched. That's true in a way, but not the 9 innings of any particular game. A more accurate statistic would show how many innings a pitcher averaged per start, and how many runs that pitcher averaged giving up per start. Then, if you want to get really into it, determine what innings the pitcher did not pitch, and how many runs an average bullpen from that league in that year would have given up in those games in those innings. I think Jack would come out looking really good if that's how we quantified run prevention. Even though I think he could have had better "advanced" statistics if he had been used differently, I don't think it would have helped his teams win championships. The 1984 Tigers, 1991 Twins and 1992 Blue Jays relied on him to win games, but also pitch deep into games to that the bullpen could be used to assist weaker pitchers. That formula worked for the rotation, the bullpen and the teams he played on. And after all, his contributions to his teams is the main factor in whether he's a HOFer.

IMO, the main problem with any WAR calculation for starting pitchers is that pitchers only continue to pitch by getting outs. Once they can't get outs, or tire, or hit a pitch count, they get pulled. A replacement level pitcher can't pitch 293 innings like Jack did in 1983. A replacement level pitcher can't pitch 250 innings, like Jack averaged for his healthy full 13 seasons. To truly understand the replacement level for a great starting pitcher, you need a replacement level pitcher and one or two relievers, and then you would need to quantify the burden on the bullpen of having to pitch innings 7-9 20-30 more times each season. Finally, FIP and ERA+ don't account for the high leverage situations a starting pitcher like Morris took on by pitching the 7-9 innings. Ultimately, the concept of replacement level players, which may work for other players, does not work well for starting pitchers. The Morris debate has highlighted this fact, as he's an extreme example of a guy who pitched a lot of 7-9 innings compared to his peers.

But his fWAR is significantly better than bWAR, which is why you never hear about fWAR in these debates.

ERA+ is one of the primary rating systems that is used in the case against Morris, in my experience. I agree that it is a terrible rating system. And the flaws in ERA+ are compounded by bWAR. K/9 is also a terrible statistic. People should use K% instead. For example, if one pitcher gives up three baserunners and strikes out one in one inning, his k/9 is 9. Another pitcher gives up no baserunners and strikes out one in one inning, his k/9 is 9. However, the latter's K% is twice as good as the former's, and he's simply better at striking people out.

I apologize if my comment was offensive. I did not intend to be rude. I have a lot of respect for the opinions that you express on this site. I have been involved in this debate on other sites, including Posnanski's, where instead of debating the merits of the HOF case, I've been condescended to as if I knew nothing about advanced statistics. And I have found that it makes no difference what team you root for, the debate is not about that. So my opinion about the motivations behind the debate was formed many years ago.

The Morris HOF debate has been going on for years, and not because of team affiliation. It’s about people who believe that bWAR and ERA+ are the most important rating systems, and anyone who disagrees is “old school” and less enlightened. It’s more about a group of people wanting to be right than it is about Twins fans, or Braves fans, or Tigers fans.

I'm very happy for both Jack and Trammel. They are both very important players from that era, which is underrepresented. I especially like that HOFers from their era were voting on them and their peers. I already read a sour grapes article by Jay Jaffe. He and others are so wed to their own systems of thinking that they can't see the forest for the trees. It's not "new school" v. "old school". We're all fans, and maybe we value different things or see things differently. Get over it.

I remember getting the "Ichiroll" when I was at Safeco about 10 years ago. I wonder if they have already offered to serve "Shoheirolls." Seattle makes a lot of sense for Ohtani as a city in which he'd be able to assimilate. But I'd still prefer a bit more sunshine if it were me.

DC and Chicago over LA, San Fran & Seattle? Maybe I’m regionally biased towards the west coast and Rocky Mountains, but I can’t imagine anyone preferring DC and Chicago. (I don’t know enough to say anything about NY, but I’d prefer all three plus Portland and Denver over anywhere east of the Rockies).

Is "convo" a word for "conversation" for those who are too busy and important to spell out complete words? Why isn't it "conver"? Isn't that convoluted?

Amen, brother.

I’m thankful that Eddie Rosario turned a corner in 2017. Obviously, Buxton and Sano are exciting to watch. But Eddie is right there with them as one of the most exciting players in the game. He’s become a fearless, big time hitter, and a key piece in the lineup. I look forward to big hits, like his dinger against the Yankees, for many years to come.