Harrison Greeley III

He will definitely need to rely on his off-speed stuff this year. On Fangraphs, the pitch value on his fastball shows a decline in effectiveness and velocity. His slider went from dominant in his good Tampa days to completely neutralized in Pittsburgh and then slightly negative his last 2 seasons. It looks like he unlocked something in his change-up last year though. It was his only pitch with a positive value. He only threw it 12.8% of the time. So as a reclamation project, Wes Johnson has three keys to make Archer good again. 1. Increase the change-up usage. (assuming it remains effective, of course) 2. Pinpoint what worked about his slider in 2015-17 and rediscover what he lost somewhere around 2018. 3. Find a way to add deception to his fastball release, compensating for declining velocity. This is not going to be easy.

Those huge gaps between between AVG and OBP are promising. The league figured out quickly you don't want to throw him fastballs so they fed him nothing but sliders. If those gaps weren't there, I'd be more concerned. I feel confident he's going to figure it out. If he does, I wonder if that threatens Kepler's job security if he remains so beatable and vulnerable to 4-3 groundouts.

Amy is a buzzsaw of a draw. So few category weaknesses. I'm pulling for him though.

His splits first time through the order last year weren't all that bad (if the ball stayed in the park) and then he was terrible after. I'm guessing they're going to do a John Gant type thing with him where you'd be surprised to see him come out for the 5th inning. It's basically Alex Colome money so maybe he'll even be moved to the pen for multi-inning jobs.

A big part of the equation of Buxton's future I rarely see discussed is Buxton's national perception. Yesterday Bill James posted a Twitter poll of whether Buxton or Benintendi was more likely to still 'break out' despite their injuries. Completely missing the reality of Buxton's production from 2019 to 2021. Any time I talked baseball with a non-Twins baseball fan in the last 3 years and fawned over Buxton, there was a reception of pity and holding back a laugh at my future heartbreak whenever the next injury was to hit. And of course, the reaction frustratingly often wound up correct. The question I have is how do other front offices see him? What matters more, the massive talent or the uncertainty, especially with the CBA issues ahead? I'm inclined to believe he is valued more highly by the Twins fanbase relative to the national baseball fanbase. As unfair as I think it is, I think Buxton's health history has made him a punchline outside of Minnesota. I think if they shop him for a trade they will be lowballed and disappointed by the potential returns. And when he hits free agency he's going to be disappointed with the offers. Of course it'll only take one team to prove me wrong on this, so I can't even say it with a high degree of confidence.

Cruz needs to do the right thing. He needs to sign with the White Sox and be a shadow of himself like a good Twins hall of famer.

It has seemed apparent to me for the last 3 years that the front office sees a market inefficiency in prioritizing deliveries, particularly deliveries with deception. They want pitchers like Cody Stashak, Kenta Maeda, etc. Joe Ryan's unremarkable velocity that's extremely difficult for hitters to pick up is, what I would assume, this front office's Holy Grail. From there, after acquisition they can work on unlocking a couple extra MPH with Wes Johnson on his lower half biomechanical tutoring. It adds roster flexibility by cheaper to do it this way. Most other teams are understandably obsessed with velocity, so they're more willing to part with someone like Maeda or Ryan. It's a clever angle which worked well in 2019 and 2020. Intuitively, focusing less on velocity would theoretically lessen injury risks, but 2021 certainly does NOT back that idea up.

Yep, the questions 'How does a team that was on the cutting edge of analysis and implementation of advanced data suddenly become one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball? And does that have anything to do with the fact that the most outspoken hitter on the substance topic is playing 3B?" have crossed my mind quite a few times this spring. I can't prove anything either way, so I can't/won't officially have that take. But I do wonder...

Solid 'on the fence' on this one. There's nothing really wrong with your argument and the case made. On the other hand, I'm not so sure we need to think rebuild at this point. There is a ton of veteran talent and some impact rookies on the horizon, particularly on offense. The pitching is a mess, but probably a fixable mess. You can look at Berrios as a potential jackpot for a return, or you can look at him like a cheap upper-tier pitcher on a one year deal for 2022. If I didn't believe they could retool and bounce back in 2022, I'd be totally with the idea. But as it stands, I'd rather start thinking about how to fix the staff for next year. With a few tweaks they could be good again and having Berrios would help.

I'm wondering if it's the new ball doing something to his command.

He has been an All Star in the last 2 full seasons because he dominates the first half. We're not actually going to know if he's different until August where he has a career ERA of 5.57 and hitters slash .273/.353/.448 off of him. He's been Bizarro Johan Santana having his bad stretch late instead of early. If he avoids hitting the wall in the second half, then yes I'm ready to say he's found a new gear. I hope he has.

Is it fair to give up on that slider that he came up with in Spring Training that was supposed to strike everyone out? Was that just hype?

I talked to a friend who's a White Sox fan about him after they signed him. Paraphrasing his take, 'He puts 2 runners on like every time, but he gets the job done.' So therefore I've set my expectations at 2003 Eddie Guardado. He'll be fine. But I will likely switch to radio and go for a walk or turn the game off and await my mlb.com game over notification when he pitches the 9th with a slim lead.

We'll see. But he's still got his speed so I'm not so sure how much that negative factor comes in to play. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1373421889847169025?s=20

Fair. But it still looks to me that the hope is getting an average bat at best either way. To me the bat part is the smallest part of this role. This is the guy who is coming in to pinch run for Nelson Cruz in late innings, replace Arraez in LF if needed, and is going to get spot starts as players need rest. I think I'd rather take the plus outfield defense instead of the hope of an ok bat. I know Cave did well defensively last year, but I'd still prefer Broxton's track record. If you have an outfield of Buxton/Kepler/Broxton with Simmons and Donaldson on the left side of the infield in late innings, that's pretty dreamy for pitchers.

I think I'd rather have Broxton in Cave's role, honestly. His defense grades out better, he can play CF well, he'd make a good pinch runner, and expectations for their bats are a wash.

It did create ill will that all but ruled out the possibility of extending him when he was putting up MVP numbers though. Of course he would take the Cubs offer if they were top bidder in free agency. That's basically the point, If you treat players like commodities, that's the depth of the relationship you can expect in return. There's a value in treating your players well. And for the record, I'm aware the situations are different and I said upthread I have issues with Kirilloff making the team. "Nevertheless, he needed to force the issue in March and he hasn't. I do see the potential problem in how much it would sting if he's up with the Twins in April and looks lost at the plate like Aaron Hicks in 2013." I think the service time thing is a consideration, but it's a dicey subject and the Twins need to be careful on this one.

I live near Chicago and I've been seeing the Kris Bryant story play over the course of these last few years. The bridge burning is definitely a thing. Most of baseball decisions are just business, of course. But it is in an organization's best interest long term not to go about all interactions voiding all human considerations. Especially when you're the Twins and you've repositioned the team as a place where everyone likes each other, stays loose, enjoys playing for the manager, and listens/collaborates with the analytics team.

The issue with this is that St. Paul doesn't start playing till May 4th. Also, it's not that great of a long term business decision if it burns the bridge, creates a general animosity and distrust from the clubhouse, and reflects poorly on the organization to the public. Nevertheless, he needed to force the issue in March and he hasn't. I do see the potential problem in how much it would sting if he's up with the Twins in April and looks lost at the plate like Aaron Hicks in 2013.

What exactly is the case for keeping Jake Cave on the team other than everyone seems to like having him around in the clubhouse? It seems to me anything his skill set offers can be done better by either Rooker/Larnach/Kirilloff or Broxton/Garlick.

People freaked out about the bullpen daily on social media before 2019. And while there were some seams in the early going of the season, the bullpen developed and had the 3rd best fWAR in baseball. Then they finished 2nd last year. This Twins front office and coaching staff have earned my trust. What I believe this front office (and other good front offices) understand that fans struggle with is that now the game is based more in development over acquisition. So that means that hot takes like "Shane Greene's out there! Let's get him!" are becoming an outdated way of thinking. The reality of the game as we've seen from teams like Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland on the cheap side to NYY, LAD, Boston, and Houston on the expensive side is that if you don't have a focused development plan for each player, an acquisition-minded approach is likely to deliver inefficient and mixed results. The prime example of falling behind on development while struggling to evolve from the acquisition-based mindset is the Cubs. Both the Cubs and the Dodgers rose at similar times. The Dodgers, however, are sustaining while the Cubs appear to be starting a rebuild. While the Dodgers have the ability to acquire the likes of Mookie Betts or Trevor Bauer, they're consistently developing either internal talent like Cody Bellinger, Tony Gosolin, or Will Smith and scrap heap finds like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, or Max Muncy. The Cubs haven't had those scrap heap finds. Those allow a team the margin of error to miss on a big acquisition (or trade away a Cy Young contender) where those misses appear to have sunk the Cubs. While we're bored in the wintertime, development doesn't get the clicks and the social media likes that big acquisition stories do. It's not entertaining content. Nevertheless it's the reality of the game now. The Twins understand this, particularly with building a deep bullpen. Will the results be there like they were the last two years? I hope so, but I can't promise it. I like the mentality and approach though. They're in a good position to get good results.

Rocco slotted him 5th or 6th in the order a combined 42 times in 2019. I follow the logic having him there. In addition to his high batting average and OBP, he has the lowest K% on the team. Batting 5th 6th, there's a decent chance you'll have opportunities to be hitting with 1 or 2 outs and runners on. The game is so strikeout-oriented now that his contact skills are particularly valuable in those situations. Given those opportunities, he knocked in 20 runs in those 42 games. On Fangraphs' splits, in high leverage situations they have him hitting .556 in 2019 and .500 in 2020. I'm fine with him leading off though. In 2019 he led off 14 times and had 5 RBI, which isn't bad. But beyond batting order debates, I'm mostly interested in having him hitting with runners on as often as possible.

Wishlist 1. Trade for Trevor Story. 2. Trade for Joe Musgrove. 3. Find 2 or 3 more of cheap Matt Wisler/Ryne Harper types with one unhittable pitch to pad the bullpen till July when a bigger bullpen move can be made.

If they did nothing and just let him walk in free agency, they'd likely have won the AL Central in 2008 by 3 or 4 games instead of losing that game 163 in Chicago. It was odd how letting him walk was never an option on the table at the time discussed publicly (and isn't even discussed in this article). But sometimes doing nothing is the best move.

I really like the freeze frame on the pitch tunnel in the overlay video. I might want a freeze frame on the release points too in the future.