It seems to me that despite all of the debate, almost everyone agrees that Liriano might be very bad going forward, or he might be very good going forward. Liriano's track record suggests that he is likely to be bad overall, but no one can predict the future. What is undeniable is that when Liriano is in the zone, he can pitch like an ace. It also seems undeniable that aces are rare, and very valuable to teams that can make the postseason. And the Twins don't have many potential aces in the farm system. I agree with sbknudson that this is a matter of risk, but I hope that the Twins make some offer based on risk assessment. For example, if the best guess is that there is a 25% chance of Liriano being worth $36 million over 3 years and a 75% chance of him being worth $14 million, then why not make an offer of $19.5 million per year (i.e. $36 million + $14 million + $14 million + $14 million divided by 4). We can argue about the percentage chances of each outcome or the dollar amounts, but it seems to me that there is a lot of value in the possibility of Liriano maturing and becoming able to consistently realize his potential. I agree with Chief that the offer should be made soon. If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.