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SarasotaBill

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Everything posted by SarasotaBill

  1. SarasotaBill
    Twins signed Sano at 16 years old for 3 million (risk = 16 years old). At this point everyone is happy with that investment. If Aiken lasts until the Cubs at 9, they will take him before the commissioner finishes "the cubs are on the clock". Don't worry about position is in the first few rounds - get the best player. It's not a bad thing to have too much pitching - ask the Rays for the past six years.
  2. SarasotaBill
    Why choose Aiken with the arm recovery risk? Potential. Aiken potential = Lester ($150 million) others potential = Nolasco/Santana ($50 million) The Twins can't buy a $150 million ace. Roll the dice.
  3. SarasotaBill
    Take a risk on Aiken - his upside is much greater than those in this draft. He'll sign for 4 million - the Astros tried to low ball him with a offer before increasing it to 5 million just before the deadline. By then the relationship was over. If he doesn't sign - then the Twins get the 7th pick in next year's draft which has to be better.
  4. SarasotaBill
    Moneyball was about finding under value assets and maximizing them. I believe going after hard throwing relievers in 2012 and 2014 was good value. KC proved a dominant bullpen can have a bigger impact than a good starter in a series. I really like the philosophy of Deron Johnson to draft more on upside and potential.
  5. SarasotaBill
    Very good deal for the Twins and Hughes. After the recent Volquez and Rios signings, I'm liking the Santana and Hunter deals much more. Can't wait for ST.
  6. SarasotaBill
    Goodrum is rated too high. Low batting avg, no power, and no defensive position.
  7. SarasotaBill
    There's no doubt that Meyer will be in the starting rotation if he's in AAA. They can limit his pitch count to save him for the full year.
  8. SarasotaBill
    I agree with the article. I like Santana signing but worry about the payroll effect in 2017. Next step: Wait for July and try to extend Hughes for two years or trade him if overwhelmed (at least a Sano level prospect).
  9. SarasotaBill
    Salaries most likely gone in 2016: 10M - Hunter 5M - Pelfrey 5M - Plouffe (trade to make room for Sano) 3M - Duensing 2M - Milone 1M - Nunez
  10. SarasotaBill
    I would roll the dice on Brett Anderson and Kris Medlan. I don't know the guarantee and incentives needed but I would require at least a team option for a second year.
  11. SarasotaBill
    Relievers are getting re$pect. Perkins contract is looking better and better for the Twins. Also, the bounty of high velocity relievers in the Twins minor looks even better value.
  12. SarasotaBill
    Signing Hunter only makes sense if: - They plan to trade Arcia for pitching - Or they are so desperate to teach work ethic to Arcia and Hicks
  13. SarasotaBill
    It will be interesting to see what Rios signs for. I assume much less. Hunter signing is all about catering to the casual fan. 10.5 million - maybe enables the Twins to win 2-3 more games this year. No long term strategy.
  14. SarasotaBill
    Schaefer seems to be a great fit as a platoon player, defensive late inning OF, and pinch runner.
  15. SarasotaBill
    2015 is the last year of the transition. Bring up Meyer as a starter after mid-June to save one more year of Arbitration. You'll be glad for the next seven years. Mid 2016 bullpen: Perkins, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Z. Jones - now that's a power bullpen
  16. SarasotaBill
    Since Ryan has come back, the Twins have drafted power arms instead of control/finesse pitchers, made the May & Meyer trades, and built the team to be good after a few years, The Twins were a mess when Ryan came back. The Twins have the pieces and top prospects to be good from 2016 to 2022.
  17. SarasotaBill
    My Ranking by Position: SP - Berrios,Meyer,Stewart,May,Thorpe,Gonsalves,Rogers,Duffey,Ynoa,Hu,Romero,Jorge RP- Burdi,Z.Jones,Chargois,Reed,Tonkin,Melotakis,Cederoth,Curtiss,Adam,Landa,Clay C - Turner,Silva,Garver,Fernandez,Navaretto 1B- Diaz,Hicks 2B/SS- Gordon,Polanco,Vielma,Michael,Hinojosa,Mejia 3B- Sano,Goodrum OF- Buxton,Rosario,Walker,Kepler,Minier,Harrison,Larson,Murphy
  18. SarasotaBill
    I would take the upside of Thorpe and Gonsalves over Rogers.
  19. SarasotaBill
    Stanton salary could be 13M, 18M, and then he's a free agent (25-30M per year). The required prospects and his future salaries make trading for Stanton unrealistic.
  20. SarasotaBill
    Since Thorpe and Gonsalves excelled against older competition, I would have them in the top ten. Also, Diaz and Silva are too low for me since I put more weight on potential. Vargas has a much better track record as a hitter than Walker. Even though Walker has great power, he faces long odds to become a more consistent hitter. Biggest point - the Twins farm system has never been better in recent years
  21. SarasotaBill
    Twins need a new voice in the dugout. A new pitching approach. A new way managing the roster - platoons & defensive shifts. Steinbach or Molitor or outside the organization?
  22. SarasotaBill
    Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team. Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did. Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.
  23. SarasotaBill
    KC is a wildcard team and Shields is a free agent. I don't want to copy that formula. If you want a Ace, then sign Lester or Shields as a free agent. Only trade a top prospect for a young cost controlled player. Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).
  24. SarasotaBill
    Pelfrey and Nolasco were awlful signings. Pelfrey - injury prone history Nolasco's ERA last five years in NL - 3.70, 4.48, 4.67, 4.51, 5.06 Ryan needs to sign an Ace (Lester) to make the Twins relevant. Cost of Nolasco + Pelfrey is close to the cost of an Ace (buy quality). Without a true ace signing: - The Twins will be irrelevant again in 2015 -The bullpen will get crushed again (young pitchers tend to be inconsistent) - The top propspects debuting next Summer will create a spark of interest - By August, most people's interest will turn to football
  25. SarasotaBill
    2015 is a transition year unless they sign Lester or other ace. If no ace signings, start Pelfrey for first three months and try to trade him before the deadline. If he is awlful in ST, then stick him in the bullpen and see if he can find sucess there and if so then try to trade him before the deadline.
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