jorgenswest

I am in as long as the Twins stay in house or gamble on minor league free agent. Let's go cheap in RF with Parmelee or other. Trade Span and get pitching prospects. Take the Span money saved in RF and overpay a pitcher. I am not in if it means they sign a decline phase RF to a contract similar to Carroll and Doumit.

If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready. Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177 Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back. Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

The Twins are a team of many needs. Doumit fills the need of back up catcher and emergency RF. He hits well for a catcher, but at best adequately for a DH or RF. He doesn't defend well at either spot. As he declines, his best role will be back up catcher and pinch hitter. He will do that job well. He will be a good guy in the club house. Essentially by signing him now, they have begun the winter process of rebuilding this team through free agency. Is this the best first step? Is this one of the key needs to be addressed? Is he a major part of your off season blueprint? Another team might have chosen a different direction. They might have tried to fill this need by using Butera and Parmelee. This might free a few million more to use towards overpaying a free agent pitcher or middle infielder. They might have chosen to fill out the bench from the free agent bargain bin at catcher taking what is left as spring approaches. Worst case, Butera and Herrmann are around. Go back to last winter. Why not take money spent on Doumit, Carroll and Marquis and try to sign Edwin Jackson instead? The other spots would need to be filled with near league minimum guys. Yes, we would be left with Alexi Casilla playing more. We might get to see what Parmelee can do with playing time. Maybe Sean Burroughs would still be on the bench. Butera would have more at bats or we could have signed a back up option like Dioner Navarro. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit are great guys to have in the clubhouse. They have value. They are also the kinds of respectable players you always find on losing teams. The Twins may have the best back up catcher in baseball going into 2013. I simply question whether this should have been the Twins top priority.

The Twins are a team of many needs. Doumit fills the need of back up catcher and emergency RF. He hits well for a catcher, but at best adequately for a DH or RF. He doesn't defend well at either spot. As he declines, his best role will be back up catcher and pinch hitter. He will do that job well. He will be a good guy in the club house. Essentially by signing him now, they have begun the winter process of rebuilding this team through free agency. Is this the best first step? Is this one of the key needs to be addressed? Is he a major part of your off season blueprint? Another team might have chosen a different direction. They might have tried to fill this need by using Butera and Parmelee. This might free a few million more to use towards overpaying a free agent pitcher or middle infielder. They might have chosen to fill out the bench from the free agent bargain bin at catcher taking what is left as spring approaches. Worst case, Butera and Herrmann are around. Go back to last winter. Why not take money spent on Doumit, Carroll and Marquis and try to sign Edwin Jackson instead? The other spots would need to be filled with near league minimum guys. Yes, we would be left with Alexi Casilla playing more. We might get to see what Parmelee can do with playing time. Maybe Sean Burroughs would still be on the bench. Butera would have more at bats or we could have signed a back up option like Dioner Navarro. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit are great guys to have in the clubhouse. They have value. They are also the kinds of respectable players you always find on losing teams. The Twins may have the best back up catcher in baseball going into 2013. I simply question whether this should have been the Twins top priority.

Doumit is a good addition if they see him as a role player, third catcher and pinch hitter. They also should have offered this deal knowing they are likely seeing his peak performance as a Twin. If they see him as an every day player or DH, he will block any future solution. His spot on the team makes it very difficult to give Parmelee any playing time. Maybe they have assessed that Parmelee has little value for the future.

The only way to keep Baker is to pick up his option for about 9 million. If allowed to be a free agent, he will sign elsewhere. While that will likely be less than 9 million, he will no longer be a Twin. If Liriano continues to pitch well, the only way to have a shot a keeping him is to offer the compensation level of 12.4 million. The point is that in order for the Twins to keep these two, they will need to budget 21 million. The likelihood that they will get less in the market is irrelevant, because they won't stay with the Twins for less. The only good side of both of these deals is they will be one year commitments to players with an up side. The risks are overwhelmingly obvious.

It is good news that he looks like a player with value again. The Twins can set the bar for a Dan Hudson level pitching prospect. BBA had Hudson at #66 and Chicago's #3 entering 2010. It may not be reasonable that they will get that offer. In that case, they can offer him a 12.4 million/1 year contract. That level will guarantee compensation of two picks if he chooses free agency. His talent is worth the risk that he will accept the one year deal. With Liriano, any decision is a risk. The Twins may turn down an offer of middling prospects and then watch him fall apart or come up injured after the trade deadline. At that point, offering a compensation level deal wouldn't make sense and the Twins would be left empty handed. I would hold out for a good pitching prospect and risk the reasonable possibility that Twins will end up with nothing.

I assume you are "jokin". Every pitcher at any level of baseball has splits that vary like this. How are guys going to score when no one is on? Solo HR is the only way. When are runners most likely to score? My guess is when they are already in scoring position. Over the last two years, righties have an OPS .677 and lefties an OPS of .657 so unsurprisingly he is more successful against lefties. Some splits at http://minorleaguecentral.com/player.php?pid=502356&split=3000

After the new CBA, Capps was reclassified as a "modified Type-B" and the Twins would have received a sandwich pick had he been signed by another team. http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_New_CBA_will_help_Twins_earn_compensation_for_Matt_Capps112211 Again, I would have taken the one pick over signing Capps. I hope the Twins do not worry about any 24 year old and arbitration, especially a LOOGY where future compensation will not be significant.

I agree with keeping Morneau. I hope that this deal tempers our expectations about the Twins being able to get significant prospects in a trade for Morneau. I wonder if Willingham has much more value. He has a lot of money left on that contract.

It would have been one pick for Capps if another team signed him to a major league contract by a given date. I would have taken the one pick though. I am not sure what you mean by Robertson's clock. Arbitration? The Twins should have no concern about a 24 year old reliever getting arbitration a year earlier. It will be good news if Robertson plays long enough to get that opportunity. At this point, it is unlikely he will have a significant major league career.

Youkilis and 5.5 million buys Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge. The 5.5 million will cover a major portion of the money owed this year. The White Sox will also have a $1 million option on next year's contract (13 mil). The Red Sox are buying a prospect in Zach Stewart. Entering 2009, he was considered a top prospect. By 2012, he has struggled in the majors and is now with his 4th organization. Lillibridge is a utility player that can't play SS. Probably a AAAA player. I think this is the upper bar of Morneau's value. Morneau doesn't have a 2013 buy out so the Twins may need to send more money in a deal. If the Twins are fortunate enough to get an offer at this level, should they trade Morneau?

ESPN 1500 reports that Capps shoulder is "not good" http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Matt_Capps_shoulder_not_good_after_lowvelocity_outing_against_Reds062412 When will the Twins learn to use the DL? If the rest is more than a few days give them two weeks. It looks like Perkins is the closer for a while. Capps may go to DL. Gardenhire also implied on his show that Duensing will get more starts. Will the Twins need to bring up a lefty for the pen. Matt Maloney, Luke French, Tyler Robertson and Caleb Thielbar are in Rochester. I'd like to see Robertson get some time. Thielbar doesn't have very many AA/AAA innings.

Thanks. You captured the joy of going to a minor league game.

Why would Doumit sign a deal at the lower end? Players don't give up free agency midseason to sign a reasonable deal. What would motivate Doumit to give up his free agent rights and sign midseason? He would give it up if he is confident that the deal was better than anything he might get in the winter. The only way to do that is to overpay in dollars and years. Do not sign an over 30 back up catcher with injury history to a multiyear deal.

I really appreciate the writing team that faithfully keeps us informed of the minor league games. I look forward to reading this article every morning.

Doesn't seem wise. Guaranteed to overpay. List of potential free agent catchers from Baseball Prospectus. (* = team option) Koyie Hill Chris Iannetta * Russell Martin Jeff Mathis Brian McCann * Miguel Montero Mike Napoli Wil Nieves Miguel Olivo * Ronny Paulino A.J. Pierzynski Humberto Quintero David Ross Carlos Ruiz * Yorvit Torrealba The list doesn't include DH possibilities. The Twins would be wise to wait.

The Red Sox would be essentially buying prospects. The Twins can do the same. It doesn't change their budget. It just converts it from salary to Morneau to money for a prospect. Youkilis is easier to move to a team like Pittsburgh because of his $1 million dollar team option. The Pirates would not have to commit to him next year. On the other hand, if the option is not picked up they will be left with nothing after this year.

With all of the news of Kevin Youkilis and an impending trade, I have been wondering if the market for Youklis will be the same as the market for Morneau.Both have large contracts. Youkilis is 12 and 13 million. Morneau is 14/14.Both are performing below expectations.Both are health risks.Both can help at 1B.I think Youkilis has a little more value. His contract has a $1 million dollar buyout for 2013. He can play 3B. As a Twin fan, I may be a little more optimistic about Morneau performing better than Youklis over the remainder of the season. I am not sure if teams would agree. Based on sample size and looking at 2010, I think there bats are statistically similar in offering projection for the remainder of the season. Teams may see more value in Morneau's ability to hit RHP and just plan to bench him against LHP.If Youkilis is traded first, the number of teams willing to take a large contract under performing corner player will decrease by one. It will also indicate to the Twins the upper bar of Morneau's value. Clearly the Red Sox will have taken the best offer and any other offer would be of less value. In any case, the value should be close to what Minnesota can expect.As the rumors flow about Youkilis, I hope the Twins are working behind the scenes measuring the value they can expect for Morneau.

I think it is worth a try for the Rockies and the Twins should pay attention. Before I go further, this is not something that could benefit every team. If you have an ace like Verlander or Sabathia, I don't think you want to pull him after 75 pitches. Could it benefit the Twins? At 75 pitches, teams will get 5-6 innings out of a pitcher in a good start. Yesterday Liriano was at 75 after 6 innings of a very good start. Over 20 games, the burden on the bullpen will be about 20 more innings. Assuming the roster has the same number of pitchers, there will be one more pitcher in the pen that will take on about 1/2 those innings. The other 10 innings will need to be picked up by the rest of the bullpen. If those 10 innings go to the better arms in the pen, then I think it can be a success. So the questions a team will have to ask... - Are our current starters less effective from 80-100 pitches? - How will the innings redistribute? - Will we get 20 better innings (over 20 games) by giving 10 to the new arm in the pen and distributing the other 10 to arms current in the pen? - Can we utilize the arms in our pen better to get more innings out of our better relievers? - Is there any data that points to the health risks or benefits to pitchers in the rotation and pen? Many think that the arms in major league bullpens are not utilized well. If this change causes a team to better utilize those innings, it could be a hidden benefit that really drives the success of the 4 man/75 pitch rotation.

Cabrera was a 20 year old in AA with a slash line of .365/.429/.609 after 303 plate appearances. It was his 4th season in the minors. If Buxton performs similarly in 2015 at AA, I am certain the Twins will call him up for the end of the season. It will be up to Buxton and Sano to force their way into the majors like the players above. Sano started A-Ball at 18 this year, he can be in the majors to finish 2013. He will need to show significantly improved contact rate in and then dominate AA as Cabrera did. Based on his performance this year, I think it is more likely we will see him in 2014. Buxton isn't any different. It will be up to him. The Twins will not hold him back if he goes out and dominates.

Do you think the Pirates will take on the multiyear salary commitment and trade for Willingham or Morneau? The new CBA will shake up the trade market this year. Similar players in the last year of the contract should be "cheaper" to acquire. Teams will be desparate to trade them because they will not receive comp picks at the end of the year. For example, Carlos Quentin will be a free agent after the season. The Padres will be motivated to trade him or get nothing at the end of the year. The Pirates or similar team would not need to take on his contract over multiple years. He will be traded for less than what the Twins should accept for Willingham. This new CBA environment could depress the entire trade market with some teams highly motivated to trade their players with expiring contracts. The best match for players like Willingham or Morneau would be teams that have shown they are more willing to take on long term commitment. For that reason, I don't think the Pirates are a good fit.

If it comes down to money, Bard will sign. Next year's draft class is deeper. He will go later in the draft. This may also be a reason for the Twins to be firm if they still get a comp pick. It will probably be a better prospect. I don't think the rotation can be fixed by free agency. It is very unlikely a top free agent will consider signing with the Twins. The Twins would have to overlay in both years and dollars. They can't risk another bad prospect. The way out of thehole is with the development and acquisition of prospects. I understand that more budget money is devoted to development this year. I hope it pays off.

The health of the Twins farm system is a significant concern and should have been since 2009. This particular measure is also biased by a few player that have seen major league time that may not have in another organization. If Parmelee, Benson, Hendriks, DeVries and Dozier were in a different organization, they may not have seen their major league debut yet. I prefer looking at the average age at the level, preferably weighted by PA or IP. It will give a better picture of whether a team is filled with AAAA players or organizational players at the lower levels.

Strikeout rate has been going up consistently over time. I left off data from the 1800 because rules about numbers of strikes and ball varied. There are two drop off point when you look at the data. In 1920, the spit ball was banned. In 1973, the DH was added in the AL. I think the 7.5 K/9 fits the trend. It is not a return to a previous era but simply of the the evolution path towards stronger bodies and arms. In 1920 baseball responded to Ray Chapman's death by spitball by banning the pitch. As the number of pitchers who can throw over 100 MPH increases will MLB wait for another tragic event or will they take action. What can they do? Move the mound back.