jorgenswest

They will need to factor in a forfeited pick if they go after Jackson who will probably be offered a comp level contract. The pick will be in round 2 unless the Twins move up in the overall standings. Since Greinke and Sanchez or even Liriano can not result in a comp pick, I am not sure how the qualifying offer would factor in. Teams may not have to give up a pick to sign them. In other words, the new CBA may result in a group of pitchers whose signing results in a loss of a pick (Jackson) and others who may not (Sanchez).

The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.

Do we realize that the talent on the 2013 Twins or the system has not changed?

I wasn't trying to say these are great prospects, but pointing out that they are young and the Twins desperately need young players in the upper minors. Their youth gives the, some upside. Hendriks is the best of the four 23 year olds at Rochester, but it is nice to have a few more young guys with this experience.

Upside? How would you measure it? Sometimes it is an obviously toolsy guy who isn't performing well. Sometimes it is a guy that is young for his age at a level. What about Escobar and Hernandez? Escobar is the youngest position player on the Rochester roster at 23. He has played every level at a young age. He didn't get there by his tools. He progressed based on his outstanding ability to defend at SS. Hernandez is the second youngest pitcher on the Rochester roster. He is 5 days older than Guerra. He also has had success as a younger players at his level. Who are the youngest players in the Twins system with major league experience? Escobar as a position player Hernandez as a pitcher. They may not be toolsy prospects, but they have performed well enough at a young age to progress. That must count for some upside.

Hernandez - Do we have many 23 year old pitchers in this system who have made it to AAA and performed reasonably well throughout? The only guy I can think of is Hendriks. It looks like he profiles minimally as a reliever who can be more than a LOOGY. These guys have value.

I don't think the Twins have anyone in their system with the ability to defend at SS to match Escobar's reports. BBA listed Dozier as the best defensive IF in their handbook. We are not even sure if he is a SS. Jorge Polanco has had some good reports off his defense but he is a long way for the majors. Florimon seems similar. The rap on him coming in according to Sickels was his trouble with the routine plays. In any case, the system is pretty void of guys who can defend at SS.

Escobar is a better comp with Nick Punto. He was all glove and no bat at the time the Twins traded for him in 2003. He was entering his age 26 season. If Escobar's glove is as good as the reports, he will have value. He is two years younger than Punto at the time of the trade. The BBA prospect handbook had three shortstops of similar age listed in the White Sox top 10. Escobar at #10 beat the other two out for a spot on the opening day roster. That has to show something about how he was valued in the organization.

You probably should read the 2012 Baseball America prospect handbook. Do you really believe teams have so little understanding of sample size that one bad start or a six week good stretch in the midst of a couple of poor seasons dramatically changes trade value? A rental player with a two year WAR around 0 is apparently worth close to his WAR. Shocker.

Baltimore called up Lew Ford today. Good luck Lew!

I am pretty sure he was looking at their 2012 prospect handbook which is usually the first source. In it he was ranked 10th this year. Lists are fluid as trades are made.

We traded 12 starts. We did not trade any member of the 2013 team.

Should it have made a difference where they traded him? They are not competing for the division this year. Liriano could have been in Chicago next year regardless of where he was traded. As for value, a C pitcher and a C hitter are pretty equivalent to a sandwich pick. There are questions whether it would have been wise to offer Liriano the 12.5 million so the Twins might have received nothing. If Escobar is the real deal with the glove, he will be valuable while under team control. Guys that can pick it at SS are not that easy to find for league minimum. I guess it is a plus that Hernandez is left handed. Both are young. Six weeks ago Liriano had no value with absolutely no chance the Twins would make a qualifying offer. Getting two C prospects for a pitcher who has had so many poor outings since the last two seasons can't be seen as a bad trade. Does anyone think Ryan turned down better offers? Let's spend the 12.5 million elsewhere next year and we have what looks like two guys who will have major league careers. What do we lose? The remaining Liriano starts in 2012. Nothing else.

Hopefully the Twins understand sample size and will not give weight to whatever performance Valencia gives in the next week or two. If they use him wisely, he will only appear against lefties which will further decrease the sample. As for any team interested, his performance on the field 2010-2012 will carry the weight.

I think Perkins has a better chance at being a useful starting pitcher than the return they would get. His recent success can not be exclusively linked to the relief role. You can see the addition of the slider also correlates to his success. Starting pitchers are so valuable and rare, the Twins should consider the possibility of using him on the rotation next year.

Seems too little, but the three far exceed the value of one comp pick after the first round. The biggest mistake would be to do nothing. They had to take the best deal on the table. The Twins will be in the same position with Liriano. Maybe worse. They may not risk offering him 12.5 million to get the comp pick.

This year's payroll is in line with their status as a middle market and revenue team. I agree that it is not the problem or solution. The solution is to rebuild a farm system that had declined since 2009. It can't be changed on a year but there are some encouraging signs. The organization has some respected prospects at 20 and younger. I understand more money has been put into the system. The coaching changes seem to be going the right direction. Unfortunately, we won't see the fruits of the system next year. So what will Ryan do? Will he try to build a .500 team next year by signing some decline phase players to team friendly contracts? I think that was this year's plan. Looks like next year's too. The first move was signing Doumit. Will he sell high his decline phase player assets with an eye on 2014 and beyond? We will find out soon.

Rental players have less value this year. The receiving team can not get the comp picks. The trading team knows that they will get one pick instead of two if they retain the player. Both work to lessen the value of the player.

I recall thinking... "How are they going to use all of the minor league free agent pitchers they brought to spring training?" They seem to have found major league work for almost all of them not named Thompson.

I don't think his performance in the next start will matter as long as he stays healthy. However, by starting him the Twins trade one of his remaining starts or about 8% of his value. I think the Twins should rearrange the rotation so that he is scheduled to start August 1. This will allow his new team an opportunity to slot him where he best fits in their rotation. They have an off day today so it can be accomplished. The Twins need to make a trade. They bottom bar is the level of a single comp pick. Any prospect in the top 200 would be better value. The best they can do above that level should be accepted and the Twins move forward.

The trade might be more comparable to dealing Morneau and buying prospects in the form of picking up a significant portion of his contract. As for prospect grades, I am not sure how what it means to be a B prospect. Baseball America uses a numbered grade system. John Sickels uses letter grades. Below is his definition. Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases. Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all. By his definition, there are very few A level prospects. Probably less than 30. Two prospects involved in trade discussions this week are close. Jacob Turner entered the season as a fringe A level prospect and Randall Delgado entered as a strong B level prospect. Turner's status may have dropped. Of the players the Astros received only the outfielder Grossman is probably at the B level and very similar to Aaron Hicks. By the definition above, I don't think either of the pitchers would be considered B level prospects.

Getting anything close to Delgado for two months of Liriano would be a steal for the Twins. Looking at his game log, he has very few good games and many poor outings against the better teams. That hot/cold type of performance is not one teams want to take into the playoffs.

I think the Twins went the right direction in this case, though in hindsight he may miss more time. Jammed thumbs are common and usually players are back within a week. With starting pitchers and arms it is a different decision where they have errored with Pavano and Blackburn this year. In any case , I wouldn't call up Valencia. Burroughs needs to be put on the 40. There is space, but the Twins may be hoping to fill the space with players received in a potential trade. At this point with the trade deadline's roster uncertainty they are right to hope he will be back in a week.

If the Twins believe in Baker, they need to show it by picking up the option. If he will be healthy by June, he will be an asset and in demand at the trade deadline. This comes down to the Twins medical team assessing his progress and readiness for 2013.

Little risk in moving him and capturing the salary. We can also see if Florimon's glove fits the utility role for next year. At 25, he is hardly a young player and at best projects in a utility role. He has been DFA'd twice this year. He is no more a prospect than Luke Hughes. The key is to capture the salary and find a near minimum salaried player to put in the utility role next year.