jorgenswest

Without Baker, the Twins don't get to game 163 in 2008 or 2009. In terms of WAR, he was the best starting pitcher on those good teams. Over a 5 year period (2007-2011), he average 3.1 WAR per year. That is probably greater than the sum of WAR from the starters in either of the last two years. If the Twins believe Mike Pelfrey is capable of being the best pitcher on a good team, they need to sign him soon. Note: I used BR WAR figures. His fangraph average for the 5 years is slightly greater.

I think a Punto type path is more likely with better pop a fewer walks. Like Punto, he has a good glove at 3 positions which should keep him in the majors. He will have plenty of time to grow the bat skill.

There should be no fall back plan. Sign big or sign no one.

I hope May 1 at the latest. He needs to adjust to he majors with a fresh arm and his best stuff. As long as he doesn't show significant control issues in spring, it really should be opening day. I wouldn't be concerned about service time for a 24 year old pitcher. If it is a concern, get the extra year of service by waiting a few weeks. They should absolutely not worry about super 2. If he pitches lights out and earns big dollars in arbitration a year early, pay him and be thankful.

Pelfrey had 29 starts last year. 16 of those starts were less than 6 innings. He had only 2 starts of 7 innings. Those were his longest outings. He did not get an out in the 8th once in 29 starts. He did perform better the second half, but it didn't really help him go longer in games. In the last two months of the season, he made it 6 innings in only 5 of 10 starts. He can't finish off hitters. His high pitch counts keep him from going late in games. His short outings are a burden on the bullpen.

Worley has a strong enough track record in the NL. He would not pass through waivers. Diamond probably wouldn't either given he is left handed. They both need to be on the 25 man roster next April. Looking at 2013, it is reasonable to think let them go. However, they both have had success and one or the other is likely to have success again. They both have several years of control left. As the Twins add to the staff this winter it is critical it is guys like Garza that can be seen as a number 2 or young enough like Hughes to have some upside. They need to avoid their usual bargain bin additions. Developing someone in house with service time will have much more value long term.

Any rotation has space for a Garza. Signing a Johan Santana works because he is either good or injured. The Twins don't need to sign back end guys. They don't need to sign Pelfrey. They don't need to sign pitchers certain to decline into back end of rotation guys like Arroyo. Signing those guys prevents them from finding useful pitchers with several years of control. Thoughts on pitchers... Correia would likely be a good fit in a role of long man/6th starter. His performance doesn't drop with runners on base. He is very good at holding on runners. He does not need to be a lock in the rotation. It will be a positive sign if he moves into this role. Meyer needs to be in rotation early. He needs to be up adjusting to the major leagues with a fresh arm. We don't need to see those high pitch count games in AAA like we saw with Gibson. I hope he opens on the major league team. Gibson needs to be in the rotation from day 1. Will Deduno be healthy? He needs a 10 start shot, but if he doesn't have it they should cut ties. He is not a young pitcher. I believe Diamond and Worley are out of options. They may need to be designated for assignment. That's OK if it is Garza pushing them out. It is not OK if it is a 37 year old Arroyo or a Pelfrey. I think Hendriks has an option left. He should be given a long enough stretch in AAA. Trevor May also needs a longer stretch in AAA. Albers and Johnson will also be there if needed. Again... There is always space at the top. Sign Garza. The Twins need to avoid guys who fill in the middle back end or are very likely to decline into that role. Avoid Capuano, Arroyo, Pelfrey...

The Twins are a better team. It is encouraging that they were willing to take on a contract. If they sign another pitcher, I hope it is a high upside guy. Meyer needs to be up early next year. Gibson needs to be in the rotation. If we are going to close the door to out of options guys like Worley or Diamond getting a longer look, it must be for a high upside guy. Not a Pelfrey or Arroyo.

The article I saw referencing marchi and related to Pinto from baseball prospectus (free side) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21855

Pitch framing is essential to the command and control pitcher. Those pitchers need to live on the perimeter of the strike zone. I illustrated games earlier this year where the Twins and Doumit were not getting calls in the bottom quarter of the strike where the other team was getting calls. Same umpire. One game it might have been 6 of 7 pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone were called balls. If a control pitcher can't get strikes called at the bottom of the strike zone they have no choice but pitch up in the zone. Getting hit hard follows. In this particular game, Gardy in his post game conference said that our pitcher needs do a better job of keeping the ball down. I so badly wanted to hear him say that our catcher needs to do a better job of receiving the low strike without his head bobbing all over the place. Doumit is the worst pitch framer in baseball. Mauer gets extra high strikes but has trouble at the bottom of the zone. The reports on Pinto were not encouraging in Max Marchi's look at minor league catching. The best framers have been signed already. Salty is the only above average one left. If he really is skilled in the area, he doesn't need to hit much to be an asset.

I believe I commented not his here before, but it may be worth saying again. Mike Pelfrey had a FIP much better than his ERA. There is a group on pitchers that do that on a consistent basis. One characteristic is that their numbers with runners on base are poorer than with the bases empty. Is this bad luck or a skill? The skill part comes in being able to pitch equally well from the stretch. The ability to hold runners on. The ability to work quickly enough to aid your defense. FIP only counts strikeouts and walks. It doesn't care in which situations they come. It doesn't matter to FIP that Pelfrey's k/bb ratio is much poorer with runners on base. Kevin Correia is the polar opposite. He actually has done better with runners on base his last two seasons. He is very good at holding runners on. FIP doesn't care about this. Maybe it's not a skill. Maybe it's just random. Maybe the only thing pitchers control is strike outs, walks and home runs regardless of game situation. Maybe not. If pitching with runners on base is a skill, is it possible that Pelfrey can have the peripherals of a number 3 pitcher without really being one?

How many runs can be saved by pitch framing and sequencing? If it is as significant as the Rays, Pirates and a Yankees believe, the Twins should be looking to improve their defense at catching. If the catcher has little impact on runs scored, then there is little to distinguish Salty from Doumit. We will learn a little about how the a Twins value defense at catcher as they build the roster this winter. It certainly has not been a priority in the previous two years. Maybe it shouldn't be.

Thanks. Molina will be back with Rays. McCann is with a Yankees. Salty is the only other guy on this list that would help our young pitchers.

If Drew is an elite defensive catcher, he will have a major league job. He is probably a little above average. That isn't enough to make up for his bat. The work done on framing numbers suggest that the difference between his defense and Doumit's is greater than the difference in their bats, but that has more to do with Doumit.

The Twins appear to agree with the view point listed above. I disagree. I don't believe that Doumit can possibly hit well enough to make up for the runs he costs with his defense. Mike Fasts study of a few years ago and the various studies since lead several teams to put a priority on receiving the ball. Joe Maddon said last winter that Molina saved them over 50 runs. They gave him another contract and he can't hit. Doumit is the other end of the spectrum. I hope the Twins are correct and the Rays, Yankees and Pirates are wrong. I am not confident in that hope.

I hope they would put defense as a priority in seeking a catcher. If that's the case, they won't consider Navarro.

The most important aspect of catching receiving the ball and calling the game are not measured by WAR. All attempts to measure this skill ranks Ryan Doumit at the very bottom. Not just overall but every season for the last 6. Very few teams would put him behind the plate.

If the Twins sign a catcher that makes every pitcher better, wouldn't it be helpful? I don't think any of the current three catchers is close to average defensively. I guess the fourth Fryer must be or he wouldn't be on the roster. Maybe Pinto and Herrmann can get to average and we know where Doumit ranks. Is it possible that our young pitchers will develop better under a good catcher? Is Saltalamacchia the catcher? http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/7/10/4507512/jarrod-saltalamacchia-red-sox-catching-interview

The Yankees had a great catcher in 2012. Since Girardi, defense has been the top priority at catcher. Molina gives Girardi and Pena credit for recognizing and perfecting his technique? In McCann, they get the best available of both sides. WAR doesn't compute his value on defense, but that value exists. The best signing of the offseason last year was Russell Martin. This year it could be McCann. Cashman said the Yankess would absolutely tender Cervelli. Is that still true with the signing of McCann? The Twins could use Cervelli's skill and knowledge of the catcher position on the roster.

Target Field will make Arroyo's personal numbers look better. It really doesn't help much in the win column. While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant. If Arroyo's numbers are better because of Target Field, that illusion may help if the Twins are able to flip him in a trade. It won't help in the win column. As always, USAFChief put it much more succinctly.

If it is Buxton or Sano, it is a no. I agree. Unfortunately, that is what separates the a Twins from the other teams interested in pursuing Price. The other teams have the next tier of prospects to offer. They have the money. In fact, their interest may seem stronger when they are offering their best prospects. The Royals were able to make the a Shields deal because they had that rare top tier prospect. There is nothing other interested teams could do to match Myers. If the Twins get Price, it will be at the cost of Buxton or Sano. I wouldn't do it.

I used baseball reference play index to find all 36 year old starters who started at least 28 games. I found 28 pitchers. Those 28 pitchers averaged 3.2 WAR with 21 pitchers over 2. (I used BR WAR as it is tied to their play index). [TABLE=width: 395] [/TD] G IP W L K BB >2 WAR Age 36[TD=align: right]32 [TD=align: right]204[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]147[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] Age 37[TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]125[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Age 38[TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]137[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Age 39[TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [/TABLE] Even in the first season of the contract there is a significant drop in pitchers who baseball reference values at 2+ WAR. By age 39, only 25% of the pitchers are at that level. There were 8 pitchers who aged well and account for most of the age 38 and 39 stats. Those pitchers were Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells. If the Twins put Bronson Arroyo in that class, they should absolutely give him a multiyear contract. If not, anything beyond a one year deal would be a foolish investment to appease the fans in hopes of generating interest and ticket sales. Edit: Baseball reference has a similar pitchers through age 36 on Arroyo's page. While none of the 8 mentioned above landed on his list, several were on the original list of 28. John Burkett(#1) and Tim Belcher(#3) should be of particular interest to any team considering signing Bronson. They both signed 2 year deals following a solid 36 year old season. Burkett had two seasons worthy of a #5 starter and retired not making it to 39. Belcher was awful in his 33 starts for Anaheim posting ERAs above 6 at age 37 and 38 before retiring.

The Twins should put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket and avoid the mistake of overpaying for old back of the rotation pitchers like Arroyo and Capuano. I would be all in this year. The posting fee only impacts one year. That money is available again next year.

Arroyo had a FIP of 4.49 leading to a WAR of 0.8. While it helps to change parks, he would have to face a DH in the AL. This is a pitcher who over the last 3 seasons had a cumulative WAR of 1.7. Correia has the same total in fewer innings. It is not reasonable to expect he will do better over the next three at his age. Steamer does project him for 1.7 next year (Correia 1.6). Which pitcher will have more WAR over the next three years? Worley or Arroyo? I would bet on Worley though it will likely be Arroyo in the first of the three years. The Twins could DFA Worley while paying Arroyo millions. Note: WAR numbers are from fangraphs.

In Vargas' case, he couldn't start serving his 50 until the Elizbethton season started in June effectively lengthening his suspension. Once served, he started in Beloit. Rosario could and should start in AAA once he serves his suspension.