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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Is it a reasonable fear?
  2. jorgenswest
    Correia has been used as a reliever 131 times. He probably would be a better candidate to come in early in a game with runners on base than Deduno. He holds on runners well and his performance does not change as much as most with runners on base.
  3. jorgenswest
    Some notes... Morales' projections of OPS ranged from 744 (zips) to 795 (steamer) and 0.5 to 1.5 WAR on a full season. Twin DHs have an OPS of 860 this year. Twin first basemen have an OPS of 649. Morales will not be eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of the season. He will be able to seek a multiyear deal without being tied to compensation. Free agents signed in the winter can not be traded until June 15. I don't think there is any other restriction on trading Morales.
  4. jorgenswest
    Hicks is the better defensive outfielder. He gets on base. His skills today helps this team more than Kubel or Parmelee. At 24, he will continue to improve.
  5. jorgenswest
    There is a lot of discussion on who goes down based on sample sizes and splits that are far too small. I hope the Twins understand that data in small samples have absolutely no predictive value in determining who will perform better in the next few weeks. They can not base their decisions on these small data sets as they make roster decisions with the addition of Morales.
  6. jorgenswest
    The order won't matter as much as who is in the line up. They can sit Mauer and DH Pinto against lefties where Pinto is catching. This does not need to take away at bats from Pinto.
  7. jorgenswest
    If they are trying to win this year, Santana and Hicks offer more than Kubel and Parmelee.
  8. jorgenswest
    Full time DH. One year contract. Better against right handed pitching over his career. In theory, he takes always at bats from Pinto. However, it really is Gardenhire who has been taking away at bats. There is no reason Pinto couldn't DH against lefties with Morales or Mauer on the bench.
  9. jorgenswest
    One reliever drafted in 2013 has pitched in the majors this year. The Indians drafted lefty Kyle Crockett from Virginia and he pitched in three games in May. his path 2013: A-, A, AA 2014: AA, Majors, AAA He is currently in AAA. Paco Rodriguez is a a Dodger lefty reliever from Florida. He was drafted round 2 in 2012. 2012: A, AA, majors 2013: majors 2014: Majors, AAA He is currently in AAA. Both pitchers started below high A.
  10. jorgenswest
    Mauer, Dozier, Hicks and Escobar have essentially the same season OBP after tonight's game (344-348). Is Gardenhire platooning Hicks and Santana in CF? No. Must be a coincidence. Gardenhire also realized his greatest fear. The Twins lost the DH today when Santana moved from DH to CF. In the future, he might be able to keep the DH by using Pinto there. Santana would be available to back up CF from the bench or maybe play him in CF and Hicks in RF. Both are hitting better than Kubel.
  11. jorgenswest
    I was fun watching him blow away Kenesaw State tonight. Consistent 98-99 on the gun. I'd love to see him in July. The jump from Kenesaw State to the AL is quite steep though.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am seeking similar college relievers who have been successful. Sorting by fastball velocity. Craig Kimbrel comes up first. Kimbrel was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He arrived in the majors in May 2010. He didn't stick and returned in September. His path 2008 R,A,A+ 2009 A+,AA,AAA 2010 AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors Is that path too conservative? Burdi would be up for good at the end of 2016. Kimbrel was a year younger when drafted.
  13. jorgenswest
    Plays CF, 2B, 3B. Short. Doubles power. They need him now. Fond memories of Cesar Tovar come to mind. Unfortunately, I don't think the process of signing and playing in the majors will be that quick. He is really an option for 2015. So is Rosario.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Rochester guys are going to need to adjust to the majors. They may not perform significantly different than Correia this year in terms of winning. I am still hoping the Twins will begin investing major league innings into Meyer and May soon.
  15. jorgenswest
    Oswaldo Arcia is a few months older than Jon Singleton. Should the Twins be thinking about giving Arcia a similar deal?
  16. jorgenswest
    On FIP... While it is more predictive than ERA at large enough sample sizes, the sample isn't large enough yet. Since it is HR based, it takes quite a while for that rate to stabilize. xFIP relies on HR/FB which would stabilize earlier at around 400 fly balls. Correia hasn't even faced 400 batters yet. So at this point FIP doesn't describe good luck or bad luck, it is still too volatile at this sample. Strike out rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and fly ball rate are passing the small sample threshold and should be considered. Have they changed over the last year? Ground balls and walks are lower. Fly ball rate is greater. Strike outs about the same. So no, I would not want my manger talking about FIP at this sample. The observations of the coaching staff on Correia 's effectiveness pitching have much more value than FIP.
  17. jorgenswest
    Arcia swings wildly. Pitchers make him look bad. Oliva only once had a k/bb rate of 2 (it was exactly 2) and that was a year where his strike out rate was less than 10. It was several years before Puckett had a rate under 2. Oliva was famous for saying, "If you like a pitch, you swing." He did barrel up on balls out of the zone. His bio on SABR write about his near perfect and aesthetically pleasing swing. His aggressive approach and confidence did put fear into pitchers that he would make solid contact on pitches outside the zone. I don't think anyone who saw both players would see any similarity in their swing or approach.
  18. jorgenswest
    Arcia high strike out rate combines with low walk rates will lead to more inconsistent play. His walk rate will improve and the Twins and Gardenhire will need to be patient through the slumps. I am not as sure about the Oliva comparison. I don't remember him swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn't walk or strike out much. His strike out rates were just below 10% his first two years. He didn't need to see many pitches before he barreled up on the ball. His rates were low because he put the ball in play before he got to three strikes or four balls.
  19. jorgenswest
    Article on the Hardball Time sire remembering Cesar Tovar. A favorite of almost any Twin fan in the 60s and early 70s http://www.hardballtimes.com/card-corner-plus-1974-topps-the-offbeat-life-of-cesar-tovar/
  20. jorgenswest
    Can we throw in Mike Pelfrey?
  21. jorgenswest
    Would you trade him for Stephen Drew? I prefer Escobar and his high 90s heat. Good pick.
  22. jorgenswest
    That's true. However, strikeout and walk rates will be the first to pass the small sample size threshold. His career rate is 5.5%. That is Puckett territory. It worked for Kirby.
  23. jorgenswest
    Jackson does have a greater likelihood of a significant major league career as a RF. Gordon is the bigger risk. Shortstops are really hard to find. Risks need to be taken.
  24. jorgenswest
    We have your breakdown of each pick and your thoughts on the Twins. Thank you. What is your draft board 1-5?
  25. jorgenswest
    OK. He did have a terrible April with the bat and continued getting starts. They could have handed the job to Jay full time. If they didn't after his April, I am not sure why they would now unless somebody have them a great offer for Bourjos.
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