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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Kepler has 610 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has 411. Just went through the Cardinals. Other than the recent return of Wong, players seem more ready when they arrive. Of the guys that started in their organization, most have over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA. Molina had 547. He was ready defensively but struggled early at the plate. It wasn't until his 4th season that he had an OPS above 700. It was 595 in his third season. We would be calling for his release here with that performance. It is not a bad plan to develop players in the minors and give them long looks at each level. It will not hurt the development of either Kepler or Buxton to send them down. Bouncing guys back and forth without a plan isn't helpful. While the Cardinals are giving most of their guys over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA, the Twins are calling up Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and Rosario with around half that of the Cardinals. I don't think it is working. If the return of Santana means Kepler or Buxton gets more time in AAA, it isn't a bad thing. If they decide to keep Buxton up for his defense, they may need to be patient with his bat through 2017.
  2. jorgenswest
    He has two position for which he has played 900 innings in his career. The other positions have samples not near enough to look at UZR. Of all third baseman his career USR/150 is only better than Ryan Braun. Braun played 3B in 2007 and the Brewers found him a new position. Of all shortstops, his UZR/150 is only better than Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar. Gordon hasn't played SS since 2013. Villar persists until Arcia arrives. Poor defense leads to extended innings, shortened starts and stressed bullpens. Hallmarks of a losing team.
  3. jorgenswest
    He is 27. BP had him the top 100 prospects in 2012. Some good results in 2014-15. Like Pressly, there is a chance he becomes a set up man on a winning team's bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    He inability to field will make it so difficult to sell him. Two double play ball throws to Dozier today. One was bad but Dozier did a great job of staying in the bag and getting the ball. The other cost 2 runs. Even on the early fielding play to his right, his feet work put him in a poor position to throw and Mauer received the ball in foul territory. I have been thinking his only position is 3B. After today, I can't imagine any winning team would see him as a starting solution anywhere in the field. Utility fielders won't get much return.
  5. jorgenswest
    Listening to Ryan this morning, I think it will be Chargois. He implied that he wanted him to have more innings at AAA but didn't have other options. They have another option now. Maybe Jepsen will come up with an injury by tomorrow.
  6. jorgenswest
    Catchers that could be free agents this winter. Wilson Ramos(29) Jason Castro(30) Matt Wieters(31) The problem with committing to a catcher as a free agent is they don't play long into their 30s and decline sooner than other positions. I do like Ramos, but if the cost is 4 years it is very possible the Twins will be eating two of those.
  7. jorgenswest
    Vielma is a long way away. He has just 66 plate appearances in AA. No walks yet. Very low ISO throughout his minor league career. He is closer than Gordon but I would hang onto Nunez and Escobar for next year.
  8. jorgenswest
    It would help their assessment if Plouffe and Suzuki are moved soon. Let's see Sano at third. Let's see the defense that Murphy and Centeno can provide from catcher. Let's give Rosario and Arcia long looks in the outfield. Move Dozier also and look at Santana or Polanco at 2B. I don't know how they get a look at Vargas short of an injury or flipping him with Park for a time. If he brings his AAA OPS of mid 700s towards 800, the Twins need to see him for a few months too.
  9. jorgenswest
    Gonsalves, Jay and Stewart are a long way from the majors. The step from high A ball in the FSL where mistakes are fly ball outs to AA is huge. The continued step into AAA where more experienced hitters aren't as fooled by off speed offerings is another significant step. Give them two more years to navigate AA and AAA. Mixed in will be some starts in the majors with varied success. Hope that one of the three can be counted on as a mid rotation starter entering 2019 with the other two getting shots at the back end (assuming the Twins don't continue to spend a large chunk of their budget on veterans filling the back end).
  10. jorgenswest
    By 500 innings the various ERA estimator metrics converge with ERA. If they didn't converge, they wouldn't have value. They all paint pictures of a pitchers ability to prevent runs scored. The purpose of the metrics is to try to get a better picture in a smaller sample. FIP stabilizes before ERA and is more reliable than ERA when looking at a single full season from a starting pitcher. Short of that full season neither is very reliable. since fly ball rate stabilizes earlier than home run rate, xFIP stabilizes earlier than FIP. They all paint a picture of the ability to prevent runs scored. When the sample is large enough ERA (and ERA+ for context) paints a good picture. The sample used was large enough. Looking at a large group of similarly aged pitchers and performance of their prime suggested that the Twins might expect Santana to perform as a number 3/4 starter his first year and 4/5 in 2016. With luck he will still be performing in the middle of the number 5 starters at the end of the 4 years. The picture for Nolasco and 4 years wasn't as bright. Essentially they paid 100 million dollars the upside of filling the back end of their rotation. It was easy to see that it was a bad decision at the time. The Twins can only get out of this hole by developing or acquiring young team control starting pitching. Multiyear free agent contracts to any decline phase pitcher guarantees a cycle of mediocrity. Though mediocrity would be a huge step up from the performance this year.
  11. jorgenswest
    They won't get it done in free agency next winter. There are no worthwhile free agent pitchers. Just more Santana's and Nolasco's.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think I agree that he will become a free agent (assuming the Twins don't tender). If he is returned to the 40, wouldn't the Twins have the option of tendering and retaining team control through 2018? Did they give up team control when they outrighted him?
  13. jorgenswest
    In a redraft wouldn't Bradley go in the top 10 if not better? There aren't 30 good players to have emerged from that draft. Wouldn't Trout, Donaldson and Syndegaard go in the top 3 or even number 1? By the time you get to the 20s the players in those redrafts wouldn't be very exciting. How does a redraft make sense if the only team withe the benefit of hindsight is the Twins?
  14. jorgenswest
    Awful. It would be a disaster defensively. Nunez can't play 2B. Perhaps swapped with Escobar it would move from distaster to significantly below average.
  15. jorgenswest
    Trevor May is on the DL with back trouble. As a starter in the minors he was reliably healthy. His first injury was last year a couple of months after being moved to the bullpen. His comment as reported by Mike Baradino at the end of last season "May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have be easier to ward off he’d remained in the rotation. In his starter days his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts." http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/10/05/twinsights-bullpen-revelation-trevor-may-would-rather-start-in-2016/ He now has back trouble a second time in less than a year of relief work. While thereis no way to know if he would have had trouble with his back had he remained in a starting role, I hope the Twins will consider returning him to the rotation. They can give him a long rehab and stretch him out before returning him to the majors. Once he returns, there is no shortage of ineffective starters to replace.
  16. jorgenswest
    http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/
  17. jorgenswest
    Sell High... How long does it take to establish a high level? I don't think it can be done in a half season. GMs aren't dumb. Players don't ride a roller coaster of value. Suzuki's value didn't change significantly after a good first half in 2014. Nolasco's value is not going to change if he were to string a handful of good starts before the deadline. Establishing value takes years of play. Nunez is having a good year and has also put together a few good years. His OPS from ages 27-29 is .766. His OPS through age 26 was .692. It should be better in the prime but that is a little more increase than typical. A mid 700s OPS is probably around what teams should expect for the remainder of this year. Assuming a winning team values defense at SS, he probably fits best as a 3B. A mid 700s OPS at 3B would rank 18th among team OPS from 3B. That is a new high in value that he has established over the last three years. His previous level was DFA by Yankees and a return the same as the Twins were able to get for Butera. The Twins should listen to offers but there could be more upside in keeping him (if he really is an 800 OPS talent) than the upside in the return.
  18. jorgenswest
    I enjoy Sickel's books every year. A deep organization might have 35 prospects C or better. The vast majority are below that level. The real decision was to tender or not. Getting back a non prospect in trade is irrelevant. They could have saved 4.5 million. That isn't very much money on the market though Trevor Cahill, Jeremy Blevins and Joe Blanton were in that neighborhood and doing OK. I would not have advocated going after any of those three. The problem isn't Milone. He is paid below the going rate of a number 5 starter. The commitment in his contract is one that is small enough so that if doesn't pitch well they don't keep throwing out there. The problem is the commitments to three other back end starters that they can't easily let go. Since 2012, Milone has a better ERA+ than Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. They are all below average, Nolasco more below average than the other three. Their performance and decline was predictable. Milone is the only wise signing for the back of the rotation of the 4.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins have to go for upside. If they end up with the 15th best player in the round, it will be a disappointment. Go back 10 years. The player ranked 15th in WAR drafted in the first round (not including supplemental) of the 2006 draft is Hank Conger. An aberration? Maybe. In 2005 it is Chris Volstad. In 2007 it is Pete Kozma. The safe pick lands them a back up catcher, fringe starter or utility man off the bench. It is far better to go for a guy with upside that may never see the majors. If they end up with the 15th most productive player in the round, that player will have little impact on the future success of the Twins. FYI- the Twins drafted Matt Garza, Chris Parmelee and Ben Revere over those three years. All have a WAR rank in the round better than the spot they were drafted.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am not sure I would do the trade either but I do think it is the level of return that the Royals can expect. The Royals won't need to dump him. There will be enough interest. I don't have enough confidence in the Twins ability to help Ventura maximize his talents.
  21. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine any expectation that the Twins could have received a return of a C prospect for Milone this winter. I looked through all the trades last winter looking for returns in trade for starters similar to Milone. Of course, there aren't many trades for back end starters during the winter since teams can sign free agents and even find pitchers to take a minor league deal. Charlie Morton was traded for David Whitehead. Whitehead is 24 and in AA. He currently has a career WHIP of 1.486 and K/9 of 5.7. The return was not near a C prospect. Jesse Chavez was traded for Liam Hendriks. Chavez has shown the ability to pitch in relief. It seems unlikely the Blue Jays would have taken Milone over Chavez in a deal for Hendriks. Hendriks has returned to his previous form after last year's outlier season. The Blue Jays are using Chavez in the pen. Jeremy Hellickson was traded for Sam McWilliams. McWilliams is 20 and after 2 seasons in the GCL he had posted a 4.8 K/9. He is not near the level of a C prospect. In any case, wouldn't the Phillies have chosen Hellickson's upside over Milone if given the choice?
  22. jorgenswest
    I would offer Plouffe and Gonsalves. I wonder if the Royals would prefer Nunez over Plouffe. His offensive skills are a better fit for their line up. On the other hand, the Royals have shown commitment to rostering players with plus gloves.
  23. jorgenswest
    It would be unwise to extend him based on two months or a half season. It would also be unwise for a team to trade for him valued at his half season performance.
  24. jorgenswest
    Nunez was DFA'd by the Yankees. Similar to JR Graham, they had 10 days to make a move and the Twins stepped in and acquired him. Even though he had an option left the Yankees did not only wanted to remove him from their 25 but also their 40. They did not feel he could play even a poor 2B and kept Dean Anna (as well as Solarte) in a utility role. His poor defense is real and for that reason he doesn't comp well with Zobrist. His bat both last year and this year makes him one of the top 30 shortstops or third basemen even with the bad glove. His ultimate role for a team might be starting 3B. He has enough bat and it isn't as demanding defensively as SS. Teams in need of a 3B must be considering making the Twins an offer.
  25. jorgenswest
    Molitor could also have had the players back. He doesn't need to be fully honest with us or the press. Why not just take the responsibility?
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