jorgenswest

There are almost no meaningful in season metrics for relief pitchers. There just isn't enough sample. At this point, you could look to changes in ground ball rate and strike out rate from career or last three season norms. It is still too early to point to a change in walk rates for any of the Twin relievers. The pitch level data would tell more. Has there been a drop in velocity? Has there been a change in spin rate?... Compared to the last three years, Belisle's ground ball rate is the lowest it has been and his strike out rate is better than his year with the Rockies but lower than his seasons with the Cardinals and Nationals. He did face more pitchers in the NL increasing those NL strike out rates. His velocity is in line with that of the last three years. There is little else on his fangraphs page useful to support an argument that he brings a different level of skill from the previous three seasons. The front office would be wise to ignore most of the batted ball data and standard statistics at this point. The skilled eyes of a trained staff are vital in this assessment. Breslow is a different case. He hadn't been effective for the last three years. The question coming into camp was whether some changes he made in the offseason would lead to better results. He also is best used as a situational pitcher. Data in his sample against only left handed batters is very small and virtually useless in this partial season sample. Comparing the last 4 seasons to when he was more effective, there is a drop in velocity that continues this year. Is he their most effective option to get out a single left handed hitter? The eyes of the staff can best make that decision. Given that 114 of 131 batters faced have come in low leverage situations, I think we know what the eyes of the staff think. There is a lot of low leverage work in the Twins bullpen, perhaps Breslow brings value in the bullpen while not pitching that is worth giving him a good share of the low leverage load.

Turley threw 99 pitches tonight. A good start giving up 3 hits while striking out 6 and walking 2. It doesn't seem like he would be in the plan to start on short rest Saturday. Gee doesn't seem like a good option either. He hasn't pitched in 2 weeks and throwing anything more than a few innings tomorrow would prevent him from going Saturday. It is hard to imagine he will be ready to throw more than 3-4 innings Saturday if things go well.

Turley is listed as starter tonight. If his start is shortened (not due to performance), it will be a sign he will be back. There is rain in the forecast in Buffalo today. Gee has not pitched in two weeks. Did he go to Rochester or did they send him somewhere where rain can sent a possibility? Selfishly I would be most interested in seeing Romero but I get why it might not be good for him or the Twins.

Rochester and Chattanooga have had 6 games in the previous two days leaving 6 pitchers that line up well for Saturday. Hurlbutt, Slegers, Melville, Romero, Rodriguez and LeBlanc. Romero is on the 40. Turley pitched the 22nd and Gee last pitched on the 14th. Could it be Romero?

I never saw any confirmed (from multiple sources) report that it was more than DeLeon.

Relievers go from effective to ineffective very quickly. One injury at 33 and a downtick in velocity might be all it takes. Any multiyear extension seems like a bad idea. If he will take it, overpay on a one year extension. If 3/21 is the market, would 1/10 be enough?

Agree. Though I do believe if they find a better closer he is still useful coming in with men on base earlier in the game. With someone on first, he might be the best option to get a double play. Not sure he is my choice with runners on second and third and a strike out is needed. I need Andrew Miller for that case.

Give him a shot as a reliever. If his velocity isn't enough to be successful, let him go and eat the contract. If he isn't successful as a reliever, he isn't going to be successful as a starter.

I don't think Santiago can finish four innings in 60 pitches. Do you think he will be backed up by Gee? That might stretch out Gee to be ready for the double header Saturday. On the other hand, they could send Gee down when Santiago returns also.

If they aren't going to start Duffey, Gibson is among the best 5 major league ready starters. Go with him this year until he isn't. His last 2 starts against a good team have been OK. He needs to earn more trust before his manager is comfortable his third time through. Inderstandlw with back to back starts against the same team.

It seems wise to wait a day or two before putting anyone on the DL. Hopefully Granite was on above flight if they are unable to go today, but the Twins 11 games in 10 days. I wouldn't want Kepler or Sano to miss that many games unless really necessary.

The supply of pitchers that are number 5 or near number 5 quality isn't so big that other than the Dodgers teams aren't going to have a AAA rotation filled with them. That might be an argument why you don't give up on Duffey as a starting pitcher a year after he had the best xFIP and SIERA among Twin starters. Starting pitchers are in very short supply. They didn't do it, but bullpen pieces for the 6th/7th inning are easier to find.

Maybe hosting games there will leave Latin American players with a favorable impression of the organization.

i would add Tyler Duffey as a possibility.

All players giving their heart to this sport deserve better respect. I am absolutely certain that the Twins from the office does not think any of the players in their system are trash. I would really appreciate if we could refrain from calling humans trash or portray those thoughts on other humans.

Is it possible they think the other pitchers are more likely to be successful? There is no way assess a relief pitcher from minor league statistics that are available. The samples even in a full season sample are too small. Go back to 2014 and you will only find 77 innings of AA and AAA data. They see the players every day. They have access to much better data. I hope their assessment is correct.

Ordinarily love reading the list. Turley's performance took a little luster off this list for me. I was sure reading here that he would have an impact and stick. Reinforces that minor league data in partial sason samples are poor indicators of major league readiness.

Further evidence that minor league statistics in a partial season sample are poor indicators or major league readiness. The eyes of a skilled staff are critical. I hope we have those skilled eyes.

I think we disagree in how we value experience in AA and AAA. Given that he has no AAA time, I don't think he is likely to be successful in the majors in August. Once he has shown sustained success in AAA, it will be time for him to struggle in the majors. This is a pitcher who just passed 100 innings in AA. I think there is a lot to learn with 15 to 20 starts in AAA. I think a midseason move to AAA is best for his development. Moving to the majors without the development time in AAA could slow his development. With adequate development, I think he can help in his first year. I don't think you speed up that process by skipping significant time in AAA and going to the majors.

Yes. Double header coming next week. Unless Turley shows something soon, Gee is probably the next one in the queue. Maybe Turley will earn another start with his performance today.

Prior to the Texas series near the end of April Buxton worked with Torii Hunter after a month of struggle. At the time he had strike outs in 27 of his 58 plate appearance. A rate of 47%. http://www.startribune.com/twins-hope-extra-swings-torii-hunter-help-byron-buxton-break-slump/420382233/ Since that work with Torii, Buxton has struck out 43 times in his next 164 plate appearances for a rate of 26%. A significant drop from his career rate of 35% prior to working with Torii. Strike out rate becomes stable reasonably quickly and 164 plate appearances is enough to support the possibility of a skill change. Of all of the off season additions, Torii may prove to be the most valuable.

Absolutely. Good point. Though I don't expect he will be helpful this year. I also don't expect a waiver claim to be helpful. Pavano and Rauch far outperformed the first 3/4 of their seasons after joining the Twins. Gonsalves seems almost as likely to surprise with a good 6 weeks. Pitching will be very expensive in July and though the Twins did find inexpensive pitching as suggested the wise one, I wanted to add that those deals took place after the trade deadline.

The Twins can wait until August as they did with Pavano and Rauch and get a cheap waiver deal on a veteran having a bad season. Should they wait to see which leftover veterans can pass through waivers after the trade deadline? They certainly will have more leverage at that time.

By what measure? I tried wOBA, RC+ and neither was that bad. I am thinking it must be WAR but WAR has a significant problem comparing across positions and doesn't in any way project future value. Playing LF he will get significant positional adjustment that he wouldn't get as a CF. The reality is the sum of the CF WAR is almost twice the sum of all LF WAR and left fielders as a group have the lowest combined WAR mostly due to positional adjustment.

If they felt Randy Rosario was ready, it would have good to have had patience with him. Busenitz will turn 27 this year. Given the long term of his minor league performance, he is more likely a 13th/14th pitcher that shuttles back and forth rather than a guy you invest a few years into. When Hughes and Santiago return, he will likely move back to Rochester. I would prefer him over Breslow and Hughes but acknowledge they need some guys with options that can be rotated through. As long as they don't DFA him, we will see him again. At his age, he is going to need to perform when he gets the chance.