jorgenswest

There are two teams with winning records the last three seasons in the Grapefruit League. The Twins and Tigers. In fact, the Twins have the longest string of winning records and haven't had a losing season since 2007 thanks to the performance of players like Aaron Hicks, Luke Hughes, Cole DeVries and Matt Maloney. ... and it means nothing. Spring training records and individual stat lines have no meaning. They shouldn't be used to argue that one player or another should make the roster. Think otherwise? Let's argue here. Let's avoid arguing the meaning of these numbers in every post about who should make the roster. I would suggest that we avoid using any spring training stats, but that isn't reasonable. The best I can hope for is that they would simply be ignored. They still have a place. I look at them. They tell a story of the games. They add to my enjoyment of following the Twins in the spring. If Luke Hughes or Aaron Hicks or Miguel Sano have a multi home run game, I enjoy the moment. I also realize that they can not be used to argue whether a player should make the team. I am not suggesting that battles for roster spots are not won in spring training. They will be and should be. The Twins staff will see these players every day. They will see the bat speed, the approach at the plate, the defensive fundamentals and range, the movement on the pitches and the effectiveness of a new pitch. Players will improve in strength or have worked their tail off this winter to get in better shape. Parker may be able to show video of an improved swing. The experienced coaching staff will see the skills and evaluate. The jobs will be won or lost in those eyes. It can't be the numbers. Let's not use them to support arguments about roster spots. When used to argue roster, let's ignore them. Meanwhile let's look forward to the Twins taking the field and continuing their reign as the Grapefruit Kings.

Thanks for the reasoned assessment. Long term, any investment of innings into Meyer, Gibson or any of the three under team control out of options guys will help in future years. What's is this year's cost (in wins) risk in giving them starts over Correia or even Pelfrey?

Mike Berardino reported yesterday that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to gibe the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has shown to be a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. Pitch Framing Data Does it matter that Suzuki is a poor at framing pitches? Perhaps he makes it up in working with pitchers and pitch selection. If a catcher has an impact on pitcher performance, how might it show up in the stats. FIP uses the defense independent stats of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher might impact home runs, but if he impacts anything it will be strikeouts and walks. Suzuki's has worked for two clubs in each of the last two years. Add 2011 and there is a sample of over 12000 batters faced. How does he compare to the 12 other catchers who caught for Oakland or Washington in the last three years? [TABLE=width: 576] Year Team Suzuki Others Suzuki Others Suzuki Others k/bb k/bb K% K% BB% BB% BF 2013 OAK 1.86 2.84 17.06% 19.66% 9.19% 6.91% 381 2013 WSN 2.78 3.31 19.68% 21.15% 7.08% 6.38% 2795 2012 WSN 2.6 2.69 20.88% 21.80% 8.02% 8.13% 1547 2012 OAK 2.15 2.75 17.54% 19.32% 8.16% 7.04% 2720 2011 OAK 2.13 2.67 18.46% 20.18% 8.67% 7.51% 4811 3yr TOT 2.31 2.84 18.79% 20.45% 8.13% 7.20% 12254 [/TABLE] Over three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Every year over the last three and on every team, pitchers who happen to be throwing to Suzuki strike out fewer batters and walk more batters. Small sample size? It is over 12000 batters. Maybe he has had teammates that are very good catchers? It was 12 different guys on two different teams. The Twins needed a back up catcher. The free agent and trade market for catchers dried up quickly and only the catchers with poor framing numbers remained. Suzuki appears to be the best of what was left. Signing a veteran catcher to start in 40-50 games seemed a good move. Before spring training, Ryan has said he expects him to start. It seems the plan all along was to seek a starter. If that is the case, is Suzuki the right guy? [TABLE=width: 576] [/TABLE]

Great stuff Parker

He projects better. Last three seasons wRC+ Drew 92,80,109 Peralta 122,86,123 Both will likely move away from SS before end of contract. Perralta has more bat to make that work.

I used play index to find all 30 year old starting shortstops from 2001 to 2010. There were 17. Of those 17, five were still starting at SS at 33. Rollins, Jeter, Gonzalez, Cabrera and Tejada. Others with good enough bats changed positions like Michael Young and Carlos Guillen changed positions. I think it is unlikely that Stephen Drew will be a solid starting SS in 2016. I wouldn't give up a pick for a shorter contract.

I am little more skeptical about the defense. The given span was 5 years. At that length, why not the whole career? Why not just the two years since injury? The 5 years include 2009-2011 which were the only three years that he didn't have a negative in either UZR or DRS. I think it reasonable to question how many more years Drew can play well defensively at shortstop. It may be a factor in his continued availability. If teams are giving up a pick, they want to get some longer term value. Is he still a good shortstop in 2016? Do the Twins want a liability at that position at a time many of the younger players reach the majors?

It is essential long term that the Twins develop starting pitching with several years under team control. They can't do that with short term mediocre starters in the rotation. Meyer needs to be in the rotation early if not opening day. He needs to adjust to the majors with a reasonably fresh arm. The a Twins don't need a repeat of those high pitch count games that Gibson had in AAA. Gibson needs to be in the rotation opening day. Correia seems like he would be a good fit in the pen. He holds on runners. He maintains his performance with runners on base. He has a long record of health. He can be called on to start for a dtd pitcher without needing to call up someone from AAA. Pelfrey is the opposite. A poor fit in the pen. His performance drops with runners on base. If Worley, Deduno or Diamond get the opportunity to displace Pelfrey and find success, it will get a good sign for the long term.

There are other options. Phillips was mentioned above. Infante and Johnson are free agents. David Adams and Corban Joseph have minor league OBPs better than Rosario and have more experience at the upper level of the minors. Rosario's much younger age makes him the better long term prospect, but not the better option for 2014. Dozier home run surge the second half helps, but there is little else to distinguish him for the two Yankee minor leaguers. He probably doesn't sustain the increase in HR/FB rate next year. I don't see the motivation on the Yankees part to make this deal.

The Dodgers entered this season trading for Ramon Hernandez. At the time if his release, he was their best hitting catcher by OPS. He is also a historically poor receiver. Yeager referenced this skill as they changed from Hernandez to Federowicz. The Dodgers have shown with their Hernandez, Federowicz and Butera roster decisions that they have shifted in how they value defense at catcher. That shift happened after the start of this season. I am am not sure how Ellis measures up. There is some info in the link below Source Studying the art of pitch framing by catchers such as Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, and others - Grantland Back to the Twins... Do they need to make a similar shift?

I think Meyer needs to open with the team next year. He will be 24. The clock is ticking on his velocity. The a Twins do not need to worry about control for a pitcher. Injuries will occur before control expires.

I am not sure why a Butera is almost a run better than Doumit. It isn't Pavano though. Pavano pitched very poorly in 2012 in a injury shortened season. The Twins need to assess how much of that run and how much is due to the skill of the catcher. One run is huge. A half a run is huge. The difference between Minnesota and the top pitching and defense in the AL in 1.17 runs. They were .57 away from the average pitching and defense. Doumit caught around 100 games the last two seasons. He wasn't the cause of the poor pitching. His defense made a bad situation much worse. I think the a Twins would have been better off making a bad situation a little better.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Fangraphs relies on FIP to calculate WAR for pitchers. Is FIP independent of the catcher? The following table shows pitching performance by catcher over the last two seasons. [TABLE=width: 500] Catcher Inn K/BB FIP Joe Mauer 1286 2.32 4.32 Ryan Doumit 865 1.65 4.78 Drew Butera 307 2.53 3.80 Chris Herrmann 228 2.18 4.44 [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Could this be random variation? Sample size? The number of innings for the catchers exceeds that expected of a starter in a full season. Is it possible that Butera always caught the more talented pitchers? The Twins haven't had a starter really stand out to make this difference. As the Twins make roster decisions for next year, can they move forward with any plan to play Doumit at catcher? Even if the difference between Butera and Doumit was half the the difference in FIPs, there is no way Doumit made up for that difference with the bat. Successful teams are playing catchers that can't hit. Drew Butera returns a real prospect in trade. The Twins need to start paying attention.

I don't think the Twins get optimal use of platoon advantage. I was surprised to see their position and acknowledged that they have several switch hitters. Gardenhire may have been able to take the current roster and get a few more wins. Different roster construction may have allowed more. I think the Indians and A's position on the list was intentional on their part. In the Indians case it will be the difference in making the playoffs.

I should have added runs scored rank. Cleveland and Oakland are third and fourth in runs scored. They may not have several great individual hitters but as a group they score a lot of runs. Boston is first. Baltimore fifth. They all get better than average platoon advantage. Detroit is second in runs scored and the only one in the top five that get below league average platoon advantage.

Two topics that appeared in the forums led me to wonder which teams are getting the platoon advantage. How did the Indians do it? I look at their numbers and see a combined 6.1 WAR from Jan Gomes and Ryan Raburn. Those cheap additions will be the difference between contending for the wild card and being on the fringe. Francona has found a role for them to put up fantastic numbers. We also debated about how platooning might help the Twins. I wondered how often teams are getting the platoon advantage. I guess I could have waited two more days, but I don't think the numbers will change significantly. Below is a table listing the percent each AL team was able to have the platoon advantage in a plate appearance. I could have included NL, but the DH gives the AL teams a different context for controlling the platoon advantage. [TABLE=width: 300] TeamCLE OAK SEA BAL MIN BOS TBR TOR AL HOU DET NYY KCR LAA TEX CHW Advantage70.5% 70.4% 67.3% 61.3% 61.3% 60.7% 59.8% 59.1% 59.0% 57.2% 56.7% 54.8% 54.5% 53.5% 53.2% 43.8% [/TABLE] There are many ways of increasing the platoon advantage. Managers can use a traditional 1 for 1 platoon. Managers can manipulate the batting order so that the top of the order has hitters with the advantage. Managers can make more frequent use of pinch hitters. Teams can seek switch hitters. General managers can provide bench players that can be used in platoon and pinch hitting roles. I look to the top and I am not surprised. The front office of the Indians, Orioles and A's have found inexpensive pieces like Raburn, Valencia and Moss and hired managers that utilized their talents well. I can imagine that Plouffe would thrive in such a situation. I was a little surprised that the Twins find themselves with Baltimore. The Twins have rostered several switch hitters. That helps. It would help more if they could hit from both sides. As the Twins make roster decisions for 2014. There is no question they need to improve starting pitching. There are few inexpensive routes towards that goal. They also desperately need to improve the offense. Will they look to Cleveland and Oakland's use of the platoon advantage as an inexpensive route towards improving the offense?

Other solutions... Abreau Sano (no guarantee he can play 3B) Plouffe I really think it will be Mauer. Brain injuries trump stubborn.

My interest in the bench is platooning. The most likely place to find a platoon piece is on a corner. The typical platoon player will have a good bat on his platoon half and limited ability to defend anywhere up the middle. A 3 man bench requires all three players to be solid up the middle. Those guys usually aren't very good hitters. A 5 man bench allows the possibility to platoon at two of the corners. Is there a way to reconfigure the current pitching staff use in an 11 man staff? Can this idea make it possible? I think some team will figure Out howto teturn to an 11 man staff. There are players out there that could have a Bill Robinson type career if the someone can figure out how to roster him.

Willhammer is correct. The third time through will often come up sometime in the 5th inning. They need to get through that inning for this to work. Too much burden on the bullpen otherwise. It is still a worthy idea. I am not as certain on the 11 pitches. That would assume there is a big drop off on pitch 76 and pitch 76 was the same as pitch 100.

A second thought about roster composition. A return to an 11 man pitching staff would enable the bench flexibility to platoon. Is there a way to do this with a 7 man bullpen and retain the effectiveness of the relievers?

[TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]PA K/BB OPS 1st 1260 2.32 .790 2nd 1191 1.65 .806 3rd 858 1.28 .850 4th 45 1.25 1.139 [/TABLE] The table above shows performance by Twins starter the 1st through 4th time through the line up in 2013. At first glance, it appears that the third time through the line up is a significant drop off. However, it is not quite a dramatic as it looks. Those 350-400 fewer plate appearances are mostly missing from the bottom of the opponents batting order. That wouldn't account for the entire difference or the near halving of k/bb ratio. The k/bb ratio takes a big hit just going to PA#2. Relievers rarely go through a line up twice. In their first time through the line up this year Twin relievers have posted a 2.74 k/bb ratio while allowing an OPS of .655 in 1895 plate appearances. It might be worth a shot. While I can't see a team with an ace going this route that doesn't describe the Twins situation.

Nice angle.

The reason the Twins are a good match is because of Sano and Buxton. One of them would have to part of the package. It is a waste of time to speculate otherwise.