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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Everyone would want 2+ years of Realmuto. Everyone would want 6 years of Lewis. Given the choice, where do you stand? I am with Lewis. Last off-season I was on the other side but that was when Realmuto had a chance to impact three seasons. In spite of the hope of the last few games, the real opportunity is 2019- and 2020. One of the Astros or Nationals will pay up. Packages of several players won’t be enough. The Marlins should seek the very best prospect in return for Realmuto. Lewis may not be enough.
  2. jorgenswest
    I agree. I don’t want to part with Lewis. However wouldn’t every teams option 1 look better? The Twins would never try to acquire that top tier player in trade.
  3. jorgenswest
    If Kyle Tucker is in play, Lewis isn’t going to be enough.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think the offer will help the Marlins force another team to take that step.
  5. jorgenswest
    If Lewis is off the table, I don’t think they need to make the call. Teams do trade prospects like Lewis. Someone will and the Twins will be left watching.
  6. jorgenswest
    There must also be some selection bias in there. Minor leaguers with very high rates are probably not spending a lot of time in the majors and get taken out of the group. Is Gordon’s low rate a reason to be encouraged?
  7. jorgenswest
    The only thing the Twins can control in terms of keeping Escobar is making a qualifying offer. I hope he takes the offer. If not, the return is a comp pick. A prospect of similar ranking to Mejia’s at the time of that trade is better value than a draft pick in the 30s. The Twins can compete for Escobar in the free agent market whether he is on the team in August or not.
  8. jorgenswest
    The return for Nunez was Mejia who made at least one top 100 list. That return is better than a comp pick and something they should accept for Escobar as they approach the deadline.
  9. jorgenswest
    If Dozier has a strong second half or Escobar a solid second half I would rather overpay on a one year deal through a qualifying offer. I don’t want that second or third year where they are ineffective yet still on the team due to contract. For Escobar I would want a return surpassing a comp pick. For Dozier it needs to approach comp pick. That bar really isn’t very high. More than half of the players drafted in that pick range never reach the majors. There is about a 10% chance of a very good player.
  10. jorgenswest
    Maybe he never forced them to address their flaws knowing that with change comes struggle. With struggle more losses. Was it more important to him to win games or develop players? Those flaws didn’t get exposed until the majors. Could they have been addressed in the minors?
  11. jorgenswest
    He was competing with two very good defensive catchers. Compared the the defensive bar of Vazquez and Leon he was moved off the position. The Twins have a lower defensive bar at the catcher position. Similarly Brian Harper came up with good defensive veterans like Tony Pena, Joe Ferguson, Edd Ott and Bob Boone in Pittsburgh and California. As a young catcher his defense didn’t match up. He was moved off catcher with Pittsburgh, failed to hit and ran out of options. The Twins gave him another shot at catcher. Though his defense never compared to Pena the Twins didn’t have a Pena in front of him. He was probably pretty close to average but moving off as a young player set his reputation.
  12. jorgenswest
    Yes. In addition, he doesn’t need a league average BABIP with his peripherals. He just needs to get back towards his norm which is much better than .239. He would have an OPS around .800 when he gets back to his norm.
  13. jorgenswest
    Did Mientkiewicz prioritize wins over development? What would that mean for his players as they transition to the majors? Are they left with fundamentals/approach that worked in AA or A ball but not in the majors? Probably not. Sano came up with a pretty good approach. It doesn’t matter today anyway. Drastic measures were needed and keeping Sano and Buxton down for a long stay in the minors might be the best hope to right their careers. That takes time. Send them to instructional also. It might be best to see them again next spring.
  14. jorgenswest
    How would a team with the record of the Red Sox have space for Swihart if he has no talent? Why not DFA him? He is certain to go through if you are correct.
  15. jorgenswest
    So definitive. How are you so certain?
  16. jorgenswest
    I want a good defensive catcher.
  17. jorgenswest
    Kemmer is organizational depth. Wade is a prospect. It is very encouraging to see his improved ISO this year. Continued work in AAA will help.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is it worth pursuing Blake Swihart in combination with a prospect? The Red Sox don’t use Swihart at catcher but Leon and Vazquez set a pretty high defensive bar.
  19. jorgenswest
    I hope they are also. Does anyone wonder about Wade’s very high IFFB% of over 30% this year. Does it mean anything? I really don’t know but it is much greater than the major league high last year. Markakis is 6.5% and 8.6% for his career. This seems very different. Players do have greater rates in the minors that are sometimes double their major league number but I wonder what that number says about his contact. Maybe nothing.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am curious about the vast difference in infield fly ball percentage in Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade and wonder how much it matters projecting their bats as major league hitters. I was able to find a few articles on IFFB% but those authors leave wondering also. One claim is that players with a lower IFFB rate tend to post higher BABIPs. Another claim is that minor league IFFB rates are greater than major league rates. A wonder is whether this is selection bias and those with greater IFFB rates don’t tend to make it in the majors. Here is what I noticed... Nick Gordon had a 2.3% IFFB rate this year in AA and AAA. He consistently is among the lowest in his league. Lamonte Wade has posted among the greater rates of 34.6% in AA and 28.6% in AAA. For context, Todd Frazier had the greatest IFFB% in 2017 at 18.9% and Freddie Freeman was 0%. Joey Votto is always low and last year he was at 0.5%. And I wonder... What does this mean projecting forward? I don’t have answers but it is something I want to study and blog further. I would appreciate any thoughts.
  21. jorgenswest
    After 1000 plate appearances early last year Aaron Gleeman spoke about how Rosario had the poorest OBP in the history of baseball for left fielders with at least 1000 plate appearances. Scary. It is important in combination with patience approaching age 27. If an organization believes in a player’s skills they have to be patient. Hitting major league pitching is incredibly hard. Hicks or Murphy would really help this team. They didn’t have enough patience and judge far too early. The key for both is they would contribute defensively while their bats develop. The Twins could have afforded to be patient.
  22. jorgenswest
    His AA strike out with the Twins this year was 31.7% (101 batters) vs his AA rate of 29.7% (175 batters) with the Yankees. I am not sure how to compare AA with AAA. His walk rate in AA was also greater compared to the Yankees. I am not very hopeful but I do think missing more bats is the key to his usefulness in the majors.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am puzzled by Garver. I thought the trade of Murphy was an indicator of the front office’s confidence in his defense. They could really use Murphy’s defense right now.
  24. jorgenswest
    They weren’t patient enough with Hicks. They weren’t patient enough with Murphy who could be giving them solid defense at catcher. They need to have patience with Buxton. I would keep him down all year and then start him the next two years. I wouldn’t give up on his talent until 2000 plate appearances and approaching age 27.
  25. jorgenswest
    Low walk rates for pitchers in the minors doesn’t translate well to the majors. It often is an indicator that the pitcher isn’t missing a lot of bats. Missing bats leads to longer counts and more walks. If the change in those measures is driven by more missed bats it is a positive step towards being useful in the majors.
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