nclahammer

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball.
 
In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the time of the trade. He had been in the Yankee organization since 2015. He had thrown 121 innings over those years with 137 strikeouts and 91 walks. He would not pitch due to Tommy John surgery in 2018 and had yet to pitch above Low A.
 
They have some similarities.
They both had injuries that caused them to lose a season.
They both had big strike out and walk numbers early on.
They both needed to be put on the 40 man roster this off season and start their options clock.

Keith Law ranked Luis Gil as the Yankees 14th prospect writing...
 
He was ranked 5th in the MLB pipeline and 10th by Fangraphs.
 
Keith Law ranked Dakota Chalmers as the 19th best prospect writing...
 
He was ranked 23rd in the MLB pipeline and unranked by Fangraphs.
 
Here is a recent article on Chalmers from Baseball America following his successful AFL season.
 
Both have significant command issues as shown. Both look to be relievers. Luis Gil will be 22 this year and likely needs to start in High A where he has only three games of experience. He has three options to figure out the strike zone and gain experience at the higher levels. Dakota Chalmers is 23. He will likely start in AA. He also has three options to gain command of his pitches.
 
The Twins acquired Jake Cave for Luis Gil. He has given the 2.3 fWAR as their 4th outfielder in two seasons. The Twins have 4 more seasons of control.
 
The Twins traded Fernando Rodney to acquire Dakota Chalmers. They gave up control through 2019. Rodney netted -0.1 fWAR for the A's before he was released and then part of the Nationals World Series team (0.5 fWAR).
 
Would you trade Chalmers for Gil today?
 
Chalmers is closer. He might help in the pen this year if the Twins went that direction with him. Gil will likely start the year in high A and still be given the chance to be a starter. His value to the Yankees would be to show better control in the first half as a starter and then moving him at the deadline. Gil is further away with a history of shoulder trouble. Any injury set back and it is hard to imagine that he will be ready before his options run out. I will be interested in where they both start and whether Chalmers is in the pen or rotation.
 
I would probably trade Chalmers for Gil. I like the upside of that arm and the possibility of having that trade piece at the deadline. Chalmers may be ready to help this year though. I see them both in a similar place as pitchers with a history of arm trouble, swing and miss stuff and command issues. They both need spots on the 40. In the moments when I regret the trade of Gil for Cave I need to remember appreciating the acquiring Chalmers for Rodney.

I just asked my wife if my Twins Zubaz still existed.
 
I have to ask. They’ve seen better days. Their greatest wound is an inch and a half ripped seam in the crotch, rendering them useless for anything public. I’ve thought about mending the tear, but the rest of the Zubaz are worn so thin I imagine they’d tear in ten other places like ice crackling during a spring thaw.
 
Do I wear them expecting they’ll bring me closer to the Minnesota Twins as I slumber? Absolutely. Pajamas should always be a bridge to pleasant dreams.
 
In truth, I often dream of going to Twins games. Usually I’m just wandering Target Field, trying to meet up with some group of people I’m supposed to join at the game. Once, despite being in my early forties, I dreamed I was the first runner-up to be the Twins ball boy. They asked me to field a grounder and toss the ball to the coach. When I failed as miserably as I would while I was awake, the other dude got the job.
 
I actually made the team one evening, but it was a nightmare. Sure, I was excited to be a Minnesota Twin. But I also knew I suck at playing baseball. In my dream, I was taking up a roster spot with no skill. The dilemma - do I tell Coach I shouldn’t be there or wait until he figures it out and drink in the joy of baseball?
 
Maybe my Twins Zubaz are like a dreamcatcher in reverse, letting out the best parts of baseball dreams and sealing in the existential doom of regular living.
 
Whether or not your dreams come true, it’s fun to play pretend you’re on the team. If you’ve got your own version of my Twins Zubaz, share some details in the comments. How far do you go? Some nights, I break out the Twins socks and a TC t-shirt and when I wake up, I’m still a guy in his early forties. A guy in his forties with the smile of a goofy twelve-year-old.
 
My wife will probably kill the Zubaz when I’m not looking. They’re one hole away from being invisible and she preys on weak and wounded clothing. When that day comes, I’ll have to get a new pair immediately. The new pair won’t be as soft and worn-in. They’ll get into game shape in no time, though. It’s spring training for sleep slacks, too.
 
Pleasant dreams, Twins Territory.

It`s nice to have money like NYY to be able buy expensive, proven, developed, polished players. These exceptional players I will convey them as "diamonds". Most teams have to settle for what`s left over in FA or try to scout, draft, develop & trade for prospects that have great potential to become "diamonds" or what I`ll call "diamonds in the rough". They are & should be valued & hard to come by because teams don`t want to give them up. Some get lucky get a prospect which quickly shine & develop into stars other prospects need a lot of patience. Stars like Cruz & Donaldson developed later in life. When a "diamond in the rough" has a set back & develop slower some teams & fans are ready to devalue & dispense of them which normally proves regrettable. Of course a true evaluation is needed to determine if indeed you have a diamond or a lump of coal. But once it`s determined you have to be patient. I believe Romero could be a "diamond in the rough".
Pertaining to pitching teams like Cleveland & LA have a system to eye & develop "diamonds in the rough". Cleveland like us are low market they never are buyers of "diamonds" but always sellers, which produces resources to obtain more "diamonds in the rough". LA & Cleveland hold onto their "diamond in the roughs". This is what I aspire for the Twins, w/ Wes Johnson to obtain & develop these "diamonds in the rough" where we have a steady influx of aces & cull out when needed.We need to hold onto our "diamonds in the rough" like LA so I was disappointed when we traded Graterol. LA really develop their pitchers so when you get a pitcher from them, they aren`t much up side for improvement. On the other hand a team like PIT does not, so a pitcher from them, there is a lot of up side for improvement. Therefore a pitcher like Archer I am very high on. He could have been very cheap but now his stock is constantly rising. People look at him & say look at his stats even at Tampa they weren`t that impressive. At Tampa, everyone saw his potential so PIT got him & couldn`t develop him. With new coaching at PIT, Archer will take off but not as much as if we had him here at MN, he should have been pursued. Jon Gray is another "diamond in the rough" which his stats don`t show his true value. At Colorado the ball really carrys so they stress GP% & pitchers are limited to that style.
MN has a lot of very good pitching prospects but I featured Romero, Graterol, Archer & J Gray because they are under valued. Although I enjoy watching "diamonds" pitch, I get excited about "diamond in the rough" because that`s where the greatest value & opportunities lay.

1) The infield defense is slightly suspect and below average. -Sano, Arraez and Polanco all have below average defensive stats
2) Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios prove to be below average front line starters. Yes they've proven themselves as #3's. Can they repeatably beat other teams 1's and 2's?
3) Byron Buxton is delayed and/or hurt again
4) Mitch Garver and the rest of the offense return to normal temperature instead of red hot
5) Injuries- This applies to any team but 5 starters (Sano, Cruz, Buxton, Donaldson and Kepler) have all battled the injury bug in recent years. Not too mention 5 of the 7 starting pitchers (Odorizzi, Bailey, Maeda, Hill, Pineda)
 
All this said the Twins should be a contender, I'm just saying the hay isn't in the barn yet.....

My last Opening Day roster projection (version 2.0) was put out on February 10th. Not much has changed since then, and I feel good about what I came up with. The end of the position players come down to a two-way battle in my mind, and that would be between The Turtle and Rake Cave.
 
After jumping into relevance during 2018, Astudillo came back to earth a year ago. Cave was acquired in exchange for Luis Gil and has served in an adequate fourth outfielder role since. Now entering 2020 with one of the best rosters in baseball, it will be about production and function when considering who will grab that coveted 26th roster spot.
 
Let’s get to the tale of the tape.
 
What Does Willians Do Well?
 
When considering the functionality of Astudillo, you’d be hard pressed not to immediately notice his flexibility. No, not in terms of limberness, but in the sense of positional opportunity. Over the past two seasons he has played six different positions each year and calling him a primary anything may be a stretch.
 
On top of being able to move him all over the diamond, there’s his ability to put the round bat on the round ball. He’s got 301 major league plate appearances and has struck out just 11 times. That 4% strikeout rate is in line with the 3% mark he set in the minors over 2,500 plate appearances as well. In a league dominated by power, commanding the zone to that extent is a feat in and of itself.
 
What Doesn’t Willians Do Well?
 
This is where strengths also become weaknesses for the artist famously known as La Tortuga. Rocco Baldelli is afforded the ability to play Astudillo all over the diamond, but defensive metrics suggest it’s not an opportunity he should be excited about. He’s a below average catcher, small target at first base, poor at third, and substantially stretched in the outfield. He’s a utility player in that he “can,” but the utility is lost in thinking whether he “should.”
 
Also, about that strikeout rate. Last season Astudillo’s swing tendencies were exploited to the tune of a dismal .678 OPS. He still didn’t strike out at all, but because he doesn’t take walks either, he’ll never be a strong OBP guy. He has a very good ability to hit the ball, but a poor ability to discern what pitches he should be attacking. A 40% ground ball rate and 30% hard hit rate aren’t going to result in many positive outcomes. Aggressiveness works against him for the most part and opposing pitchers have exploited it.
 
What Does Cave Do Well?
 
Andrew Thares recently did a great job breaking down Jack Cave over at Twins Daily. His 2019 was exponentially better than starting outfielder Eddie Rosario, and he played a key role after Byron Buxton went down. Finishing with an .805 OPS in 72 games, Cave posted a .296/.377/.556 slash line over his final 50 games (39 starts 142 AB). He certainly fans plenty but doubling his walk rate to nearly 10% was a good adjustment.
 
In the field Cave is limited to just the grass, but he contributes in all three positions. Although he’s an average at best outfielder, it’s not as though he’s a liability. Centerfield is not the place you’d want to put him, but he’s plenty adequate on the corners. Given the volatility involved with Minnesota’s starting centerfield option, the ability to cycle players through makes a good amount of sense.
 
What Doesn’t Cave Do Well?
 
I’m not sure Cave’s greatest hinderance is that there’s something he doesn’t inherently do well on his own as much as it’s the hand he’s currently being dealt. He’s a fourth outfielder on a team that has one of the better outfields in all of baseball. Although Eddie Rosario could be replaceable, that doesn’t appear to be a blueprint that will happen internally at the moment. On top of that, acquisitions in the infield have made Marwin Gonzalez more of an outfielder (a role he has been defensively superior at) pushing Cave further down the ladder.
 
From a personal contribution standpoint, Cave does have some opportunity for growth in terms of contact rate. He’s just below 70%, and given the 52% hard hit rate in 2020, more bats on balls is a good thing. He owned a .358 BABIP despite just a .258 average. Sure, the counting numbers aren’t there yet but that could turn quick.
 
At the end of the day, I think there’s little argument to be made that Cave isn’t the better player of the two. What this could come down to is the more ideal positional fit, and right now, Astudillo has that working in his favor.
 
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Sunday, Manfred described the Commissioner’s Trophy, the statue awarded to each season’s champion, as a “piece of metal.” Could this errant statement put him in line to be another victim of the scandal?
 
We have had some good ones like A. Bartlett Giamatti, Fay Vincent, and Peter Ueberroth and we have a mix of mediocre and bad. Here is a summary going to the first commissioner - Landis.
 
 
Which brought to mind a question I have long had about sports commissioners - what IQ test do they have to pass?
 
 
The World Series trophy is the Commissioners Trophy with a flag for each city in the league. It is like the Lombardi Trophy ( a classier name) and the Stanley Cup. Players careers are focused on winning this trophy but Bleacher Report gave us this insight as he joins Crane, Hinch, and a host of others with foot in their mouth disease, ""In an effort to make a rhetorical point, I referred to the World Series trophy in a disrespectful way," he said. "... It was a mistake to say what I said."
 
 
"In an interview with ESPN's Karl Ravech earlier this week, Manfred called the Commissioner's Trophy a "piece of metal" when talking about the possibility of stripping the Houston Astros of their 2017 World Series title amid the ongoing fallout from their sign-stealing scandal."
 
 
He is supposed to be above that - right? Bowie Kuhn has been the MLB lawyer before becoming the commissioner and was named defendant in the Flood vs Kuhn antitrust lawsuit. He barred Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays for appearing at a Casino event - even though they did not gamble. Kuhn refused Atlanta's desire to sit Aaron for a three game series so he could break the record at home - Kuhn was not in attendance when Aaron did hit 715. He is in the HOF.
 
 
Bud Selig hated to get booed so after the tie all star game where he made the right decision he immediately made the wrong one and said the winner of the All Star Game would be the league that got home field advantage in the World Series. He also worked with Mr Pohlad on something called contraction! You might remember his uneven handling of PEDs, yet he is in the HOF and the players are not.
 
 
Lieutenant General Eckert was the fourth commissioner of baseball - he had not seen a baseball game in ten years when he was chosen. He refused to call games when JFK and MLK were assassinated and he was fired because the owners did not think he would handle a possible strike. Writers called him the unknown soldier.
 
 
Ford Frick was the third commissioner and had been a sportswriter. "Writer Jerome Holtzman described Frick's term as commissioner by saying that he "sailed a smooth course and seldom descended from his throne. When asked why he absented himself from the many battles below, he often said, 'It's a league matter.'... In retrospect, he understood his role. He was a caretaker, not a czar."" He was named to the HOF (which he helped found) and is the name on the annual writers award.
 
 
Happy Chandler, working to avoid a strike and to maintain the reserve clause worked with the Pirates - Chandler worked with Pirates officials. Part of Chandler's intervention included organizing a team of replacement players as a contingency plan; the team would have included Honus Wagner, then 72.
 
 
The defections to the Mexican league and the threat of a strike by the Pirates prompted owners to form an advisory committee, chaired by Larry MacPhail, to suggest needed changes that would calm the discontent among the players. The commissioner then stripped the language that said racial bias was the only reason for segregation in the game. He is in the HOF
 
 
Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis oversaw the Black Socks scandal, ""Regardless of the verdict of juries," the commissioner said in a statement, "no player that throws a ball game, no player that entertains proposals or promises to throw a game, no player that sits in a conference with a bunch of crooked players and gamblers where the ways and means of throwing games are discussed, and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever again play professional baseball." Overall his reputation is on the Mt Rushmore of commissioners, but he could have risen even higher if he had led the way to integration since his father was a union fighter at Kenesaw Mountain. Yes - he is in the HOF.

Over the past few seasons there have been more than a few guys signed that have drawn a groan from Twins Territory. What the initial analysis doesn’t take into account is that the Twins have generated a juggernaut in terms of infrastructure, and it's paid dividends in recent seasons. This time around, it’s Matt Wisler looking to generate a return.
 
Early on this winter the front office tabbed former Top 100 prospect Matt Wisler as being worthy of a major league deal. He combined to throw just over 50 innings in the majors last season, and the results generated a 5.61 ERA. Giving up nearly two homers per nine innings, the counting stats were hardly enticing. But then you take a look under the hood.
 
Wisler posted a 4.23 FIP and an even better 3.83 xFIP. His 14.9% whiff rate and 37% chase rate were career highs, and his 11.0 K/9 wasn’t far off from doubling his career averages. The longball has been an issue for a while, but it’s certainly plausible to see what the Twins like.
 
A season ago Wisler had his slider averaging nearly 84 mph (you guessed it, a career high) while flipping it a whopping 70% of the time. He’s abandoned the sinker, went to a four-seam, and became a two-pitch pitcher. In targeting Sergio Romo again for 2020, as well as bringing in Jhoulys Chacin, it seems pitching coach Wes Johnson is looking to tinker with slider-dominant arms.
 
Minnesota is not some sort of a magic cure for the average pitcher, but the infrastructure now in place has produced. Ryne Harper was a 30-year-old rookie when he put up a 3.81 ERA a year ago, and he may be on the outside looking in because of the overall strength shown by the current relief corps. Matt Magill turned sporadic Show time into two consistent years of big-league run. Although he fizzled down the stretch for the Twins, Magill is now in line to be the Seattle Mariners closer after a strong finish.
 
Things don’t always work out the way you plan. Anibal Sanchez was jettisoned after Lance Lynn was signed, and he went on to have a career year with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. Nick Anderson was never given a shot internally and now is one of the best relievers in baseball. The process being in place does not guarantee a no-fault result. What is true though, is that Minnesota can now be seen as a destination for arms to thrive.
 
Maybe Matt Wisler will be a slider-fastball pitcher that can’t keep the pill in the yard and the next step won’t be taken. In a bullpen that should be expected to be among the better units in baseball though, it’s worth finding out if he can’t be a dominant middle relief option and venture down that path under the tutelage of Johnson.
 
We’ve reached the point that assessment of acquisitions shouldn’t be based around what a player was before coming to the Twins organization, but instead what they will become after getting here.
 
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Forget the teams - who knows who wins or loses until after the year, or longer. Did the Twins win the Kurt Suzuki trade? The Aaron Hicks Trade? The John Ryan Murphy trade? The Wilson Ramos trade? The first year is not enough to judge (although potentially the Betts trade is for a one year player). Injuries, slumps, high expectations all play into the team win or loss, but the players factors are not the same as the team.
 
As I look at benefits to individual players I see a different pattern of potential winners and losers.
 
Mookie Betts - he wins. He would have won if the trade had not happened because he is going to get a Trout like contract and now he has a west coast audition to go with his East Coast play. Yet, the teams have not figured out that one great player does not elevate the team - this is not the NBA - and Mike Trout has never been in a WS. Trout, Harper, Betts - all far over paid, so yes, he wins, but the Dodgers will win the west (they won without him last year and the year before and would have won without him this year). Will the Dodgers win the World Series - they will if their pitchers lead them or if Mookie Betts has a crazy year like Bobby Richardson of the Yankees, or Dusty Rhodes of the Giants, or Scott Podsednik of the White Sox, or Jim Leyritz of the Yankees, or Kurt Bevacqua of the Padres, or Brian Doyle of the Yankees? Those are not memorable names or players yet they were the biggest reason for their teams success. Notice it is not Mantle or other big names on this list and history is filled with even more obscure names. So will Mookie win them a world series? No, but he might be on the team that does win and if he does that big contract is waiting.
 
Graterol - he wins - the Dodgers Bullpen is aging and Jansen is not as good as he once was so Graterol jumps into a great position if he stays in the pen. The Dodgers have lots of successful arms and seem to know how to use them. If he moves to SP he will succeed there too with good fielding and good hitting all around him. Much better than Red Sox - no green monster, a deteriorating team, and a questionable staff.
 
Kenta Maeda wins - with the Dodgers he is in the bullpen after they got Price and they have so many ready arms he is expendable. With the Twins he is expected to win the World Series! Yes he is now our #3 pitcher until Pineda returns and then he is number four and after free agency calls Odorizzi he will rise again next year.
 
Luke Raley loses - if he thinks he was blocked by the Twins prospects and starters he is now back in the Dodger prospect factory and will lose more until he is traded again.
 
 
Connor Wong - wins - they say that the Red Sox need catchers - he will find a place on the catcher bench.
 
Jair Carmargo - loses - the Twins have Garver, Rortvedt, Jeffers - young and versatile. But hey every team needs a catcher in the minors. His only hope is another trade.
 
Jeter Downs - not sure - probably a win. He has a good name for a shortstop. Bogaerts will eventually move from SS and probably not that far in the future and Jonathan Arauz does not have dazzling Milb stats so Downs moves into the number two position. With the Dodgers his window was not open.
 
 
Alex Verdugo - wins - he has shown that he has talent. Expectations in Boston are not that he will replace Betts, but he will start and he could like the monster. And now he does not have Luke Raley looking over his shoulder! I think he will thrive.
 
David Price - wins - yes he is a salary dump, but he now moves into the Dodger rotation replacing Ryu and Maeda. He is with Walker and Kershaw - not bad and his expectations are less. There are no DHs, there is good fielding. What is lacking is a great pen, but hey, they got Graterol out there now. I think he might become a star again if health allows.

The three-team mega blockbuster involving the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers is finally complete.
 
At this point, most Twins fans are aware of what happened - a deal was in place on February 4th, sending Graterol to Boston as part of the return for offloading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers. However, that soon changed after Boston came to the conclusion that Graterol was not destined to be a starting pitcher. This was a conclusion that the Twins publicly announced well in advance of the trade. Chaos, medical speculation, and finger pointing ensued, and the entire trade between the three teams was put on ice.
 
This was perhaps the most dramatic trade saga of my Minnesota Twins fandom, maybe ranking behind the Johan Santana rumors that dominated the entire 2008 offseason.
 
I will spare you all the back-and-forth rumors between Boston getting cold feet and the revised agreement between the three teams, as this is a massive movement of players. Instead, the changes in the Twins aspect is highlighted below:
 
2/4 Twins Agreement V1
Twins trade Brusdar Graterol to Boston.
Twins acquire Kenta Maeda from Los Angeles.

2/9 Twins Agreement V2
Twins trade Brusdar Graterol, 2020 Comp B Draft Pick, and Luke Raley to Los Angeles
Twins acquire Kenta Maeda, $10M in cash assets, and Jair Camargo © from Los Angeles.

The second version is much more complex, but paints a better picture of the Twins 2020 mindset. While the delay was agonizing, irritating, and heart-burn inducing, I think the Twins used time to their advantage and improved their haul from the first version.
 
Let’s review what changed from the first trade to the second, and how the Twins sacrificed future unknowns for increased flexibility to improve the 2020 club at a later date.
The 67th Pick In the 2020 MLB Draft
 
Here’s a look at the Twins’ last 25 second round picks - ranging from pick number 37 to 92.
 


There’s a lot of variability here, with 71% of the bWAR coming from the combination of Scott Baker and Jesse Crain. The Twins have failed to receive value from the second round in the last decade, but the second round picks from the Falvine regime are legitimate prospects within the system. The jury is out on anyone drafted from 2016 onward.
 
Make no mistake - the Twins are taking an unprecedented risk for this organization by trading a draft pick this high, especially after losing the #99 pick for signing Josh Donaldson. However, there’s a very realistic chance this pick doesn’t reach the MLB level. If the player were to reach the majors, it would likely be in year outside of the Twins current competitive window. There’s plenty of second round draft talent currently in the system to supplement the current core.
 
Another way to look at the value of this pick is by equating it to a monetary value. Fangraphs placed the value of the 67th pick in 2019 at $4.1M. That factors in a signing bonus subtracted from projected future value, based on historic WAR from players picked in that slot. That’s an interesting way to look at this part of the trade, considering the dollar amount that Los Angeles is providing.
 
$10M in Cash Assets
 
Cash. Don’t worry, this isn’t meant to line the pockets of the Pohlads. This is spending money for the 2020 Trade Deadline in late July/early August. This allows them to acquire an asset at the deadline using more financial capital, and less prospect capital.
 
Judging from their pre-Donaldson free agent signings, it’s clear that Falvey and Levine crave financial flexibility. Here are several ways to look at this incoming cash, beyond use in a trade scenario:
Covering the majority of Kenta Maeda’s base salary ($12.5M through 2023)
Covering Maeda’s full 2020 contract, if he hits the majority of his incentives.
Pays for the #67 Comp B draft pick, with roughly $5.9M in excess value.

This is a huge benefit over the previous agreement, as it protects the Twins if Maeda flames out, or allows more budget room to acquire a pricier trade target in July. The $10M from Los Angeles will go to valid use in many scenarios.
Luke Raley for Jair Camargo
Luke Raley boomerangs back to the organization that dealt him to Minnesota for Brian Dozier in 2018. In exchange, the Twins are receiving a low-level catching prospect in Jair Camargo.
 
Camargo is a young catcher at 20 years old, and played at Class A last year in the Great Lakes league. His offensive line was middling with a .642 OPS, but he is rumored to have a strong exit velocity from his bat (90 MPH+) with a high hard hit percentage. The Twins seem to like that offensive profile, and the fact it's coming from a catcher is extra appealing. It never hurts to add catching depth at any level.
 
The Twins are giving up Raley, who was a fine prospect, but he suffered through an injury for the majority of 2019. He projects as a corner outfield platoon/bench piece, and that role is valuable to MLB clubs. However, the Twins outfield depth is immense, with a young starting core on the MLB team, and multiple top 100 ranked outfield prospects behind him in Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff.
 
Even with blockages in front of him, and top prospects behind him - Raley was competing alongside multiple outfielders at a similar level of development. Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Brent Rooker are all fellow outfielders with similar ages and projections to Raley. All of these similar corner outfielders were occupying 40-man roster spots.
 
The major benefit in trading away Raley to Los Angeles, is that it immediately opens up a 40-man roster spot for the 2020 team. Camargo is years away from being added, and is essentially a lottery ticket at a premium position. For now, the open 40-man roster vacancy creates a large amount of flexibility. The open spot can be used for Jhoulys Chacín, an injury replacement, or a future acquisition.
 
Brusdar Graterol Is Gone - But To A Different Opponent
 
Fair trades are supposed to hurt, right? This aspect did not change, as pitchers who throw 100 MPH+ do not grow on trees.
 
It still hurts to lose Graterol, but the same analysis that applied a few days ago remains the same. The Twins are betting that Graterol will remain in the bullpen, and are filling an area of need in the starting rotation, from an area of strength on the 2020 team. Unlike Boston, Los Angeles is fine with Graterol’s likely reliever projection. The Twins are hoping Graterol doesn’t turn into Aroldis Chapman.
 
So why is the version of the trade more beneficial to the Twins, in relation to Brusdar? Simple, the Twins won’t have to face him nearly as much over the next few years if he’s pitching in the National League, compared to two guaranteed series per year against Boston. Of course, that could change with a few late October match-ups against Los Angeles, but we’d all be very pleased if that’s the case. It’ll be much easier to root for him in Dodger Blue for the next few years.
 
The End Result
 
The one constant between the two versions of this trade is that Kenta Maeda is still coming to the Twins, as the #3 starter to open the season. The Twins had to get a bit more creative after Boston shied away from Graterol, but Los Angeles was a flexible trade partner.
 
While the first version of this trade was already risky with the Twins shipping away Graterol’s sky-high potential, the second version adds even more risk to the equation. The loss of the Comp B draft pick and Luke Raley could come back to sting in their own rights. However, I’m glad the Twins doubled down, as the increased roster and financial flexibility for 2020 are the only known factors in this entire deal.

In a bizarre and frustrating twist, the Red Sox are staunchly refusing to get anything less than Graterol (and more) from the Twins. It just ain’t gonna work with Boston, Falvine.
 
Kenta Maeda, with his underrated toolbox, would look great in Minnesota. Since his rookie season in 2016, Maeda ranks second to Max Scherzer among all pitchers with at least 1,000 at-bats against right-handed hitters (.199). In a right-handed heavy league and division, his prowess is welcomed with open arms.
 
A large pull to Madison Bumgarner was his ability to pitch at an extremely high level in October. On a much lesser but comparably impressive scale, Maeda has a 3.31 ERA in 24 postseason games. Most of his appearances came out of the bullpen, but I foresee Maeda pitching the first four or five innings against the Yankees or Astros this October.
 
Brusdar Graterol is an immense talent. His ability and upside have been tarnished in recent days by both the industry and Twins fans convincing themselves that he really isn’t that great. He is special. I wasn’t against this Graterol-for-Maeda swap, but I don’t want to see Brusdar go. Keep him as an overpowering gun in the 2020 bullpen if you can. He is an asset on and off the field for Minnesota.
 
The Twins farm system is so incredibly deep with MLB-ready arms and bats. I am of the belief that they could put together a package for the Dodgers to acquire Maeda. I think he’s going to be traded regardless, so why not cut out the Red Sox, shift the focus away from Graterol, and group two or three top 20 prospects for Maeda?
 
The Dodgers can work separately for Mookie Betts and David Price, and the Twins can exit this circus with Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox. Stash Graterol in an already great bullpen, pencil in Maeda as your number three starter, and let’s go to battle starting March 26th in Oakland.
 
Would the Dodgers push to grab Graterol for their own World Series caliber roster? Probably. Say no. Flex your muscles of depth in the farm system and work a little magic to keep arguably your best pitching prospect while obtaining Maeda, who makes this Twins team that much better. This has been a wild ride, but the Twins can come out on top, and in a big way.
 
What do you think? Comment below!

For all intents and purposes, it appears as if the mega-deal involving the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers is dead. At least as it was initially constructed.
 
To quickly recap: Los Angeles would have received outfielder Mookie Betts and pitcher David Price from the Red Sox, Boston would have received outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and pitcher Brusdar Graterol from the Twins, and Minnesota would have received pitcher Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.
 
But, again, the trade is reportedly holding on via life support as the Boston Red Sox - amongst blow back that they did not receive enough value in return for their All-World right fielder - balked after obtaining the medical records of Graterol from the Twins, according to the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal III.
 
What has been most confusing during this whole ordeal is deciphering why Boston became so concerned about Graterol’s health and how they justified that this meant they required more trade compensation in return, particularly from the Twins. After all, Graterol’s injury history isn’t exactly a secret; the 21-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery when he was a teen and missed a chunk of time during the 2019 season while recovering from impingement in his right shoulder.
 
According to Neal (via the Boston Globe), after the deal was agreed to in principle, the Red Sox were provided Graterol’s medical files, which “[included] magnetic resonance imaging exams and other images, trainer notes and virtually every detail about a player’s medical history since his entry into professional baseball.” It was apparently these images and notes that caused Boston’s knees to buckle.
 
So what could these images and notes have revealed that would cause such concern on the part of the Red Sox? This is where the landscape gets potentially foggy.
 
Advanced imaging techniques - such as magnetic resonance, radiographic pictures, CAT scans, etc. - provide great value in diagnosing athletic injuries. While athletic trainers, physical therapists, and orthopedic surgeons are trained to diagnose injuries by hands-on techniques, the severity and extent of the injury as well as the specific structures involved cannot be determined with 100% certainty - or at least near 100% certainty - without the use of imaging.
 
However, the use of advanced imaging often reveals silent “pathology” - or incidental findings; I use pathology with quotations as perhaps the more correct term would be anatomical variation. If anatomical variation is detected, but it is absent of pain and dysfunction - the characteristics used to define injury - is the athlete truly injured? Do these findings predict risk of future injury?
 
These questions are difficult to answer with any amount of certainty as the first is largely philosophical whereas the second has yet to be sufficiently researched. So, perhaps these questions should be reframed in this manner: Absent of imaging, would a team be hesitant to acquire a player of Graterol’s caliber knowing what they know about his injury history? The obvious answer is no as the Red Sox were willing to do just that as late as last week.
 
It would be one thing to conclude, as both the Twins and Red Sox apparently did, that Graterol would be best off as a reliever in the long-term based on his past injury history. It is entirely different to use his past medical history and images to demand further trade compensation - in such a public way, no less - after the deal has already been agreed upon.
 
As the linked clinical commentary from the Journal of Orthopedic and Sports Physical Therapy above states, it is common to find pain free, fully functional anatomical variation in the rotator cuff and glenohumeral labrum of the baseball pitcher’s throwing shoulder. Brusdar Graterol, an intriguing talent and 21-year-old kid, has had his health dragged through the mud based on past images and notes that may or may not have an impact on his future health and performance. That is what has been most disappointing about this entire process.

The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
 
Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.

Late last night we heard rumblings of a deal held up due to a questionable physical between the players exchanged with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins. This morning we found this to be true, as Ken Rosenthal confirmed. The deal is currently in limbo, as we wait to find out the next step between the teams exchanging Mookie Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.
 
Rosenthal reports today that the physical in question is that of Brusdar Graterol's. What is truly ridiculous is the wording given behind the hold up. Essentially Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have decided that they see Graterol as a reliever long term. Totally fine. What's the next step the Red Sox take however? Of course, they're asking for more.
 
Graterol was already reported to be Boston's number one prospect if the deal went through. The 21 year old flamethrower hovered around the 3-5 mark in the Twins system. They also received Alex Verdugo, a 23 year old who put up 2.2 wins in only 106 games last season. It may not seem like a lot for Mookie Betts and David Price, but Boston stands to lose Bett's for nothing but a draft pick. As for Price, his injury history is arguably worse than Graterol's, with the difference being that he's 34 and owed almost $100m over the next 3 years, all to be paid by the Dodgers if the deal goes through.
 
The Red Sox have watched teams around them improve all offseason. Meanwhile, it seems that their goal has been to offload Betts. They even brought the Twins in on it to be a third team to make things work. They likely identified a piece they wanted in return, ultimately being Graterol. His injury history was public knowledge up to this point. The Twins even announced that they were using him in the bullpen going forward. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that they get down to dotting the i's and crossing the t's and all of a sudden have an issue with all of this.
 
This leads me to my point for writing this other than to rant about the Sox trying to gouge our Twins farm system. I love Kenta Maeda and was very excited to have him pitching in a Twins jersey. That being said, he's projected to slot in as our number 3. Very valuable, but there's a cap on that value. I also love Graterol and was sad to see him go. I believed it was a fair trade, though I recognized that there was a chance the Twins already regret the trade down the line.
 
The Twins were already projected to win the Central fairly handily before acquiring Maeda. Maeda however, didn't even move the needle that much.
 

 
The Twins were trying to be active in the trade market, but this isn't a bona fide ace that's fallen into their lap. The front office shouldn't be pressured to feel like this is a deal that needs to be done at all costs. Worst case scenario, Graterol is throwing 100 mph gas out of the bullpen to open the season and we continue to pursue trades elsewhere.
 
For the Red Sox to ask for more than Verdugo and what would be their number 1 pitching prospect, a 21 year old flamethrower who's already showcased his ability to get outs at the Major League level, is ridiculous. They're likely sitting in 3rd place in the east in 2020 with little salary space to work with (which they suddenly care about). They're in no position to decide a top prospect's future mid trade and demand more.
 
If the Red Sox want to play hard ball and pretend they hold all the cards, I say let them. Let them try to compete with the Yankees and Rays who make active attempts to get better while the Sox sit dormant for the next 3 offseasons while being weighed down by the remaining $96m owed to the 34 year old David Price. Let them enjoy one last season of Mookie Betts before cashing him in for a draft pick. Don't offer another piece, whether it's cash or a prospect. If Graterol is wearing a Twins jersey to start 2020, that's far from a failure.

Jhoulys Chacín has signed to a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins, according to Robert Murray. This move raises the floor of the starting rotation with no risk, and Chacín has a history of being a dependable mid-rotation starter. However, that history was clouded by a terrible 2019, which is why the Twins were able to sign Chacín to a minor league deal.
 
Chacín’s major league career to this point can be summarized in four acts:
 
ACT I: Colorado High (2009 - 2013)
608 IP, 37 W, 41 L, 3.61 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 126 ERA+, 9.6 fWAR
 
Chacín broke into the league with Colorado in 2009 at the age of 21 for a cup of coffee. He pitched extremely well during the majority of his Rockies tenure, considering the environment that the Denver altitude brings. Chacín posted a 2+ fWAR in each of his first two full major league seasons in 2010 and 2011. Chacín was injured and ineffective in 2013 (5.14 FIP with a 0.4 fWAR), but he would go on to post a career high 4.1 fWAR in 2013.
 
ACT II: Injuries, releases,and minor league deals (2014 - 2016)
234 IP, 9 W, 16 L, 4.81 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 86 ERA+, 2.2 fWAR
 
The shoulder-related injuries at the end of Chacín’s Rockies tenure led to his release in March of 2015, and Chacín spent the next two years signing minor league deals. After cameos of five games each for Arizona (2015) and Atlanta (2016), Chacín was traded by Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels where he had decent success as a swing-man (29 games, 17 starts). That season was the first sign of Chacín’s renaissance, as he would post a 1.6 fWAR with the lowest FIP of his career (4.01).
 
ACT III: Career Renaissance (2017 - 2018)
373 IP, 28 W, 18 L, 3.69 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 112 ERA+, 5.7 fWAR
 
Fresh off the heels from his impressive stay with the Los Angeles, the San Diego Padres gave Chacín his first major league deal for the 2017 season. Chacín rewarded San Diego with a 2.3 fWAR season in 180 IPs. He also posted the highest strikeout rate (20%) since his 2010 season, driven by the increasing use of his slider. Chacín threw his slider for roughly 20% of his pitches in his career to that point, but in 2017 it jumped to 35.3%.
 
Chacín used his 2017 success to sign the largest contract of his career with Milwaukee prior to the 2018 season, for two years and $15.5M. Chacín had an even better season in 2018, posting a 2.4 fWAR and a 4.03 FIP. He also made the first postseason appearances of his career, going an effective 2-1 in three starts, with a 1.46 ERA against the Rockies and Dodgers.
 
ACT IV: Rock Bottom? (2019)
103.1 IP, 3 W, 12 L, 6.01 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 67 ERA+, -0.1 fWAR
 
This is the area I want to dissect with the most detail, because Chacín’s 2019 is the reason why that the Twins are signing him to a minor league deal on February 1st.
 
Heading into 2019, Milwaukee was certain that Chacín was going to be a cog in the starting rotation after his strong regular season and postseason results. That was sadly not the case, as everything that could go wrong for Chacín, did. Milwaukee ended up releasing Chacín in late August after 19 starts. The Boston Red Sox picked him up on August 31st, but Chacín would post even worse numbers in five starts to end the season.
 
Chacín’s troubles in 2019 can be explained most simply by changes in the contact, and a few unlucky trends. Chacín’s hard hit rate of 42.3% ranked among the 7th percentile for major league pitchers (MLB average was 34.5%). The hard contact was coming in a new area for Chacín - in the air. Chacín is known as a groundball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of 46.6%. In 2019, his groundball rate was the lowest of his career at 37.5%, and his linedrive and flyball rates increased accordingly.
 
More danger came with more flyballs, as Chacín averaged 2.18 HR/9 last season, and hitters had a HR/FB rate of 21%. While increased flyballs will lead to increased home runs, home run rate can fluctuate wildly. Chacín was tied for the 8th highest HR/FB rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings last season, something that should regress a bit in future seasons.
 
Balls contained within the fences also found holes against Chacín. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), was also inflated last year at .307 (45h highest in MLB), compared to his career BABIP of .281. The abnormally high HR/FB and BABIP numbers from Chacín suggest that he was unlucky when the ball was in play or in the air.
 
It's also important to point out that Chacín went on the injured list in July with an oblique strain after two rough outings, so it’s possible some of his woes were health-related. However, in any way you slice it - changing contact trends, bad luck, or injury - Chacín had a terrible 2019 season.
 
Reasons For Optimism?
 
The Twins signed Chacín as they are probably enamored by his slider (much like fellow offseason acquisition, Matt Wisler). Chacín’s slider use continued to rise in 2019 to 49.5%, which is extremely high for a starting pitcher.
The performance of his slider did decrease a bit, as the league knew what to expect from scouting reports. However, Chacín still easily outperforms the MLB average across several Statcast metrics.
 


The use of his slider can probably be assisted by his sinker/four-seam fastball combo becoming more effective. These pitches combined for over 44% of his pitches thrown in 2019, with dreadful results - a .652 SLG on his sinker and a 1.000 SLG (!) on his fastball.
 


 
 


 
Both the sinker and the fastball have been below average for Chacín dating back to 2015, but they became borderline unfathomably terrible last season. The only signs of optimism is that he had a higher whiff rate on both of these pitches, which helped increase his strikeout rate to a career high 21.5% in 2019 (one of the only bright spot metrics for Chacín in 2019).
 
Luckily, Wes Johnson has shown a tendency to add a few miles per hour to fastballs, or help pitchers develop a cutter or splitter (Chacín has thrown both minimally in the past), that can offset the frequently thrown slider. If Chacín can refine his repertoire of non-breaking ball/offspeed pitches, his flyball and home run rate should decrease closer to his career norms.
 
Overall, this is a very low-risk bet for the Twins that allows starting pitching insurance for the early stages of the 2020 season. The Twins can now afford to have one rookie pitcher in the starting rotation, rather than two, until the return of Michael Pineda in mid-May.
 
Despite all the concerns about 2019, Steamer projects Chacín to have very similar seasons to the rookie trio of Smeltzer, Thorpe and Dobnak:

Chacín: 137 IP, 7.41 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 5.05 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 1.2 fWAR
Smeltzer: 75 IP, 7.21 K/0, 2.74 BB/9, 1.77 HR/9, 5.03 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 0.4 fWAR
Thorpe: 42 IP, 9.16 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 1.55 HR/9, 4.40 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 0.5 fWAR
Dobnak: 90 IP, 5.95 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.47 HR/9, 5.03 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

With the performance so closely matched, I’d rather Chacín take up one of the two open rotation spots based on his experience and string of 2+ fWAR seasons just a few years ago. If Wes Johnson and the Twins can help Chacín develop a counter to his slider, Chacín should rebound a bit to become a serviceable back-end starter. With all the starting pitching reinforcements coming later in the season, the Twins just need Chacín to be a serviceable bridge - but he has the potential to be more.

A couple of weeks ago, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Twins signing free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, I checked in with sportsbooks at William Hill and Elite to see what effect the addition of the Bringer of Rain was having on the oddsmakers' views of the Twins' chances of winning their Division, the American League Pennant and the World Series in 2020.
 
As it turned out, the bookies weren't exactly joining in Twins' fans euphoria. The odds had shifted very little or not at all.
 
As I wrote then, however, I decided to follow this throughout the rest of the offseason (maybe even into the season) and see whether things change. In addition, I also noticed a few other interesting lines as I perused the William Hill and Elite Sportsbook sites this morning.
 
First, let's take a look at what's happening with the Twins' odds for the 2020 season.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jan-30-2-scaled.jpg
 
The long and short of it is that there isn't a lot of movement and the differences between the two sportsbooks are shrinking or even disappearing, in some cases.
 
The one bet where it still pays to shop around is with regard to Minnesota's odds to repeat as the American League Central Champions. At William Hill, the Twins' odds have moved from -175 to -160, so they're becoming bigger believers as time moves on. But if you want to put money on the Twins to win their Division, you still want to go to Elite to do it. They continue to list the Twins as an even-odds favorite to repeat. (A $100 bet on the Twins at William Hill will win you just $62.50 if they win the Central, where the same bet gets you $100 at Elite's 1-1 odds.)
 
William Hill has brought their odds on the Twins winning the AL Pennant and the World Series directly in line with Elite's line, which hasn't changed since we checked in a couple of weeks ago. William Hill has brought their projected regular season wins total back a half-win, to 91 1/2 wins, however. Elite is where you want to go if you want to bet the over on Twins wins, however. They're at 90 1/2 wins. I couldn't find where I checked what Elite had for Twins Total Wins a couple of weeks ago.
 
So, that's the story on the Twins. But let's move on and look at where else you might want to have some fun.
 
In the last article, I pointed out that, if you're inclined to throw you're money away, you could get much healthier odds on the Tigers and Royals to win the World Series at William Hill than at Elite. That's still the case. In fact, the odds against the projected AL Central doormats are getting even longer. At William Hill, the Royals have moved from 200-1 to 250-1, currently. Previously at 500-1, the Tigers (along with the Orioles) are now at 750-1. At Elite, the Royals and Tigers sit at 125-1.
 
But if you're really looking to flush your money down the toilet... I mean... if you're looking for a value-buy, check out the Orioles. At Elite, the Orioles get you a measly 100-1 odds. But at William Hill, they sit right there with the Tigers at 750-1! I mean, if you're going to throw $100 on a long shot, do you want to get ten grand when it pays off or would you prefer $75,000?
 
Silly talk right? Yeah, but I bet there's one member of my immediate family who, assuming he reads this, is sitting there right now thinking hard about that Orioles bet.
 
There are a couple of more realistic (relatively speaking, anyway) options to give some thought to, though, when you compare odds being offered at these two books.
 
The Red Sox are still sitting at 5-1 odds to win the American League on Elite, but you can get 12-1 on the same bet at William Hill. Have to say, 12-1 on a Boston AL Pennant is pretty tempting.
 
If you think the AL East is just too tough for the Red Sox to fight through, how about a team that's in a Division most people see as much easier to win? How are you feeling about Cleveland, for example? Yeah the Twins are loaded on offense, but Cleveland still has pitching and defense and that's what wins championships, right?
 
Again, stay away from Elite, where they offer just 7-1 odds. You can get twice that (14-1) on Cleveland to win the American League at William Hill.
 
You might start to think that William Hill is simply the place to go for better odds, right? Not always, no. You know the Angels have been making some pretty strong moves. Maybe you think the Astros will falter when they're forced to use trash cans just to collect trash. The Angels front office seems to think this is the year to go for it. What if they're right?
 
If you want to get on the Halos' bandwagon, you turn your attention away from William Hill (where they offer just 10-1 odds to win the AL Pennant) and give Elite your business, taking them up on their 17-1 offering for the same bet.
 
Believe it or not, though, they also play baseball in the National League! Let's take a peek over there.
People in Minnesota may not be aware of this, but the Chicago Cubs have a pretty big following (especially down here in Eastern Iowa). I know, there's no accounting for taste, but some people were just raised poorly and we shouldn't hold it against them.
 
Most of these people, you would think, learned a long, long time ago never to bet on the Cubs. But some of them, still drunk on finally winning it all a few years ago, might be optimistic enough to consider putting some money on the Cubbies in 2020. If that describes anyone you know, the place to go is William Hill, where you can get 12-1 odds on the Cubs winning the National League (vs. just 6-1 at Elite) and an even healthier 25-1 on a Cubs World Series Championship (compared to 12-1 at Elite).
 
Yes, that means you get the same return at William Hill for the Cubs "merely" winning the NL Pennant that Elite is requiring a Cubs World Series trophy to get.
 
Of course, if you want the longest odds on Cubs bets, you might want to wait a few days. Now that Kris Bryant lost his case and is under club control for the extra year, it's only a matter of time before he's traded, right? That should bump the odds up a bit.
 
I guess that's enough to ponder for today. Maybe we'll check back in about the time Spring Training is getting underway.

Ted Schwerzler wrote a great article that the Twins need to target the Pirates as a great trade possibility now.
I totally agree! But I`d like to present possibly another in the near future & that`s the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had a losing record last year, well out of contention of any play off possibility. This off season they didn`t do anything but yet they believe they still have a chance to make it this year, so they said they don`t want to trade. Now w/ the Arenado situation, I believe they will have to trade him. I believe Arenado really wants to win it all so he finally woke up & realized that the Rockies aren`t going anywhere therefore he wants out. He has an opt out option after next year & when the FO realizes that he`s going that route they have no choice other than to trade him. W/o Arenado & a very weak farm system they`ll have to take the route of rebuilding.
 
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/its-time-to-break-up-the-rockies/
 
That brings up Jon Gray, he`s been compared as the next Gerrit Cole
 
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/twins-daily-finding-the-next-gerrit-cole-a-rocky-proposition
 
Since this article I`ve been dreaming of a Jon Gray trade. Gerrit Cole wasn`t that great w/ the Pirates but when he arrived at the Astros his career took off. If we get Gray I believe he`ll become an ace for us. Although I don`t know for sure ,I`ve heard he`s not satisfied at Colorado. I know Colorado is looking for a high prospect catcher but hopefully they`ll get it when they trade Arenado so we don`t have to use our high catching prospect. Then we can trade pitching & outfield prospects. It`ll cost us a couple of high prospects.
Many teams will be after him so we need to be ready
What do you think?

Today the Pittsburgh Pirates swapped Sterling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pair of prospects. In completing that deal, it’s another reminder that the trade market has yet to truly take off, and it makes a good amount of sense that the Minnesota Twins be involved.
 
We still have yet to see any organizations move a big pitcher. Nolan Arenado looks to be on his way out of Colorado, and Mookie Betts could certainly be headed somewhere else if Boston is ready to deal. Going into the offseason it appeared that the Twins were well positioned to make a move, and nothing has changed to suggest otherwise.
 
Right now, there’s a decent level of redundancy in Minnesota’s farm system, and there’s a strong mix of impact prospects alongside depth talent. The organization is not only going to have a substantial amount of decisions to make on the 40-man roster prior to 2021, but there’s going to be more than a handful that are extremely difficult.
Expecting the Twins to land either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg would have always been a pipe dream at best. Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu would have completed Derek Falvey’s quest for an impact arm, but one was an upside play while the other has significant injury concerns. Doling out cash on either could have went up in smoke, and the long-term effects may be more costly.
 
This is where we should again begin thinking about the trade market. After Josh Donaldson was signed by Minnesota, it appeared to put a bow on their offseason. Realistically though, neither Rich Hill nor Homer Bailey represent the necessary addition to calm concern out of the gate. Bailey is more a Kyle Gibson replacement than anything, and Hill’s impact may not be felt until October. Just recently clearing the previous high in payroll, there should still be room to squeak out a few more dollars.
 
We haven’t entered a scenario in which it becomes necessary to move either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff but listening on offers and pursuing arms can be done knowing everything else is taken care of. Donaldson is more than an exciting addition on his own, but he wasn’t brought here for four years to sit back and carry the load. Minnesota made an aggressive move like that with the idea that talent can be supplemented as a whole and getting the entire 26-man help is a must.
 
I have no idea if the Twins are content with the rotation as it stands today. It’s certainly not in shambles, but there’s also clear opportunities for growth. Maybe they’ll play a handful of games before deciding that something else needs to be done. What I do know is that making a trade remains a very sensible action, the assets are there, the timing is right, and the market is beginning to reveal itself.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I’m going to dive into blogging here and see where it goes. Sometimes, as a writer, the hardest thing is to come up with an idea that’s worth writing about and that people will actually be interested to read. I expect that to be my struggle, but I’ve got what I think will be an interesting series to kick things off, and maybe that will be the extent of my contributions. Time will tell.
 
In any case, nobody wants to read about me. You want to see what information you can glean about our Twins. Given the rampant discussions on Twitter and on various blogs regarding the state of the Twins’ pitching staff, I thought it would be interesting to do a series on the numbers underlying the starters currently projected to be in the mix for the Twins.
 
While I’m sure others will make starts this season, here are the guys I’m hoping to work my way through for this series:
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Devin Smeltzer
Lewis Thorpe
Randy Dobnak
 
By way of framing the series, I think there are pretty clearly three different groups. The known (but in some cases misunderstood) quantities, the new veterans, and the prospects.
 
When the season starts, we know Pineda and Hill will not be in the rotation, and we know Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey will be (barring injury, of course). That being the case, I decided to start off by diving into the three prospects (a term I’m using loosely, given the MLB experience they got last year), starting with Dobnak.
 
A common question we hear, read, and think to ourselves as we are trying to fall asleep: “Can Randy Dobnak be a key piece of a successful playoff run?” I can cut to the chase and just say the answer is yes, but if you want to know why, go ahead and keep reading the words.
 
Let’s start by looking at Dobnak’s surface-level stats:
28.1 IP – lots and lots of caveats about the small sample
7.31 K/9 – not inspiring, but we will need to take a look at his swinging strike rates
1.59 BB/9 – elite, but let’s see how often he’s really in the strike zone
1.59 ERA – wow, but a lot of this depends on the above
2.90 FIP – also wow
3.77 xFIP – still wow, but we will need to look into his batted ball tendencies because 0.32 HR/9 is the reason for the jump from his FIP to his xFIP.

Okay, so we have a few things to dive into:
Swinging Strike Rates, which are generally highly correlated to K/9
Zone Percentage, which is highly correlated to BB/9
Batted Ball Tendencies, which are going to be a bit more difficult to use to extrapolate, given the small sample.

Getting hitters to swing and miss, and throwing strikes are generally skills the pitcher possesses (or does not), while the results – K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. Fluctuate due to randomness, umpire tendencies, opponents’ skill, etc. (esp in small samples).
 
Here’s what we see for Dobnak on those plate discipline skills:
43.8% of his pitches were in the strike zone
12.9% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike

Putting those numbers into context, 61 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the median pitcher would be the one whose result was 31st among qualified starters. For swinging strike, it turns out that is a couple of familiar names: Jose Berrios and Homer Bailey at 10.8 percent. Looking at zone percentage, there is a three way tie among Jeff Smardzija, Mike Soroka, and Bailey again at 42.6 percent (a bit of a preview of the Bailey post. Hmm). By now you’ve surely noticed that Dobnak’s numbers were markedly above the median.
 
In fact, his zone percentage of 43.8% would have tied him with Zach Eflin for 20th among all qualified starting pitchers, just a tick below Noah Syndergaard at 43.9 percent. His swinging strike rate of 12.9% puts him in a three way tie with Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw, who were tied for 14th among qualified starters. Obviously good company.
 
It gets better. If you look at qualified starters who posted at least a 12.9% swinging strike rate combined with a 43.9% zone percentage – that rare combination of being in the zone and missing bats – here is the list you get for 2019:
Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2%
Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6%
Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2%
Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2%
Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5%
Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1%

Just missed:
Clayton Kershaw
German Marquez
Lance Lynn
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor Bauer
Walker Buehler

Does this mean Dobnak is in the company of these elite aces? Of course not. What it does suggest, though, is that his success was not a fluke. He displayed an elite combination of skills in missing bats (which generates strikeouts) and living in the strike zone (which prevents walks). This suggests that he has considerable upside. He also threw essentially a major league innings load last year – compiling more than 160 innings across 4 levels from High A to the majors. This suggests he’s capable of providing the Twins with volume as well as quality, something that is not always the case for prospect pitchers.
 
There are reasons to be worried, though. The difference between Dobnak’s FIP and his xFIP was driven by an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/FB rate. The lowest HR/FB rate among qualified starters was 9.3%, and given Dobnak’s 42.5% hard hit rate, it’s safe to assume more of those fly balls will reach the seats going forward. That said, if he regresses to the mean in HR/9 and posts 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s obviously a serviceable starting pitcher. And, given that FIP and xFIP were driven by his 7.31 K/9, if those swinging strikes turn that into a 9.00+ K/9, he has considerable upside to deliver a lower ERA.

One of the best part of the offseason is the hope every fanbase has for their team in the upcoming year. Twins fans have not had this much hope in quite some time. With high hopes come high expectations from many fans. I am no different so here are 5 of my predictions for the 2020 Minnesota Twins.
 
1. Byron Buxton will play in 130 games and receive MVP votes.
The boldest part of this prediction is Buxton staying healthy for 130 games. He has played in 130 games in only one season so far with the Twins wwhich was 2017. That year he was a below average hitter with an OPS+ of 93 and he still received some MVP votes. I expect hit to be an above average hitter and with his defensive value the MVP votes are sure to come.
 
2. Luis Arraez will again bat over .300 and make the All-Star team.
While some may expect some sort of regression with Arraez he is such a pure hitter .300 seems like a definite possibility. With that I think he can be one of the top 2-3 overall second basemen in the American League. Sure Jose Altuve is probably ahead of him but guys like Gleyber Torres and Whit Merrifield are expected to play other positions this year. This leave him having to battle for votes with a lot of unproven guys, decent veterans, and some better guys like DJ Lehmahieu. Based on this I do not see it as unreasonable for Luis Arraez to make the All-Star game if he is batting .300 again.
 
3. Jose Berrios will become the true ace our starting staff really needs.
Some of you may be thinking Berrios is already at this level as he has made the All-Star game the past two seasons and has been the best starter the Twins have had in a few years. I would agree that he is a top 30 or so starting pitcher but I think this is the year he pushes toward the top 10. It has been well documented that Berrios puts up much better number in the first 4 months of the season than he does in the August and September. This will be the year he figures out how to stay fresh and effective throughout and entire season and make a push for the Cy Young award.
 
4. The Twins will acquire another starting pitcher that excites the fan base.
I am unsure of who they will target but I do think the front office will make a trade for a decent starting pitcher before the offseason is over. Some realistic targets would be Matthew Boyd, Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, and a handful of others. I like the idea of getting someone with at least two years of team control as Michael Pineda and Jose Berrios are our only starters around past this season. I believe the front office sees the opportunity in front of them and will seize it by trading for a pitcher sooner rather than later.
 
5. The Twins finally win not only a playoff game but a playoff series!
I know this might be tough to believe but I think it is actually possible for the Twins to win not just a single game in the playoffs but three out of five. I see too few flaws in this team for them not to win at least one game against a team the caliber of the Astros or the dreaded Yankees. On top of this I think once there is smoke there is fire and the Twins will get a series win. After that it is only two more and your the 2020 World Series Champs!

According to KSTP's Darren Wolfson, Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco will likely resume "baseball activties" - often hitting off a tee, fielding drills, etc. - as early as this week after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure in November to address impingement in his right ankle. This good news follows the report last week by the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Phil Miller that centerfielder Byron Buxton was on track in his recovery from a left shoulder labrum repair.
 
Ankle impingement is a broad term that refers to structures in the ankle being "pinched" due to soft tissue injury, boney deformity, and/or excessive/restricted joint motion; there are multiple joints in the ankle: the talocrural joint allows for dorsiflexion and plantarflexion (pointing the foot up and down) and the subtalar joint allows for inversion and eversion (rolling the ankle in and out).
 
There are various locations within the ankle in which tissues can become impinged upon, though the most common locations are at the anterior (front) and posterior (back) ankle, with anterior impingement being the most common.
 
Anterior impingement - also known as anterior impingement syndrome - often arises due to repetitive microtrauma (many instances of small trauma built up over time) and occasionally after lateral ankle sprains - also known as inversion or "rolling" ankle sprains. Anterior impingement syndrome isn't a very serious diagnosis, though it is often painful and can hinder an athlete's ability to perform at peak levels. Anterior impingement syndrome is often exacerbated by end range and/or repeated bouts of dorsiflexion.
 
This condition is often treated conservatively (i.e. rehabilitation) at first with emphasis placed on restoring pain-free range of motion, with arthroscopic surgery conducted if conservative rehabilitation fails. The arthroscopic procedure is often termed "debridement" as the structures causing the impingement are resected to open up more space. Outcomes following arthroscopic debridement of anterior impingement syndrome are good.
 
Posterior impingement syndrome is similar in concept, though it is often exacerbated with end range and/or repeated plantarflexion and may involve the Achilles tendon.
 
In all, Polanco appears to be recovering in line with the typical timeline following arthroscopic debridement procedures. This isn't a condition that is likely to be a long-term concern for Polanco and he should be return to game action in plenty of time for the beginning of the regular season.

Hello all. My name, as you could see from the byline, is Lucas Seehafer and I am a Doctor of Physical Therapy and strength and conditioning specialist working in the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul area. I've been a fan of the Twins since the early 2000's and figured the Twins Daily community may enjoy some insight into the field of sports rehabilitation and performance. If this is the type of content you enjoy, I can be found on Twitter at @sportkinematics and many other sites, including A Wolf Among Wolves, The Step Back, and (soon) Forbes, where I cover athlete health and performance.
 
In what can only be seen as encouraging news, Minnesota Twins centerfielder has been cleared to begin swinging again, according to The Minneapolis Star Tribunes' Phil Miller.
 
Miller reports, "[buxton] will be limited to hitting off a tee or doing other basic drills while his shoulder gains strength, but the Twins expect Buxton to progress to hitting off a pitching machine by early next month. He could be ready to hit live pitching when the Twins hold their first full-squad workout on Feb. 17."
 
Buxton has not been able to swing since undergoing surgery in early September to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, which he originally injured after crashing into the centerfield wall.
 
The labrum is a ring of cartilage found in the shoulder - also known as the glenohumeral joint - that serves to deepen the socket; the labrum improves the stability of the shoulder by increasing the surface contact area between the bones of the shoulder - the humerus and the scapula - as well as by creating a vacuum that keeps the head of the humerus in contact with the socket of the scapula.
 
The labrum is often torn in one of two areas: the superior - or top - aspect or the anteroinferior - or bottom front - aspect.
 
The first kind of tear is known as a SLAP lesion; SLAP is an acronym for superior labrum anterior to posterior. This type of labrum tear is commonly seen in the dominant shoulder of overhead athletes as the primary mechanism of injury is repeated, forceful throwing.
 
The second kind of labral tear is known as a Bankart lesion and these are most frequently seen after an anteroinferior dislocation of the shoulder, the most common type of shoulder dislocation. It is likely that Buxton suffered a Bankart tear as his injury was originally - and erroneously - reported to be a partial separation; a separation of the shoulder involves the acromioclavicular joint, whereas a dislocation involves the glenohumeral joint.
 
Overhead athletes are usually cleared to return to higher-level, sport-specific activities by about four months post-Bankart repair, regardless of which shoulder, their dominant or non-dominant, was operated on; Buxton is almost exactly four months post-op.
 
The reason for this is pretty simple: the repaired labrum needs to be protected as much as possible while it is healing and the strength of the rotator cuff - the group of four muscles near the shoulder that assist the labrum in stabilizing the shoulder, amongst other things - needs to be sufficiently built up.
 
Throwing a baseball places a great amount of stress on the labrum of the dominant arm and, depending on the players handedness while batting, so does swinging (see the main image of this article).
 
All of this is to say that Buxton is right on track in his recovery process, which is good news for the Twins and Twins fans alike. Buxton will be brought along further in his recover program as his rotator cuff strengthens further and the Twins along with Buxton are able to determine how increasing the intensity of his workouts impacts his shoulder. As Miller states, barring any setbacks, Buxton should be able to progress to swinging at full-speed by mid-February and partake in game action during Spring Training or, at the very least, the beginning of the regular season.

In his fourth offseason at the head of the Minnesota Twins, there are two words Derek Falvey wishes he could take back, "Impact Pitching".
 
It's all the casual Twins fan has been talking about this offseason, up until the Josh Donaldson signing, of course.
 
The fact of the matter is that the Twins were agressive in pursuing their "Plan A" options for the offseason in free agents Ryu, Bumgarner, and Wheeler. It just didn't work out, mostly because of forces outside of their control.
 
To me, the Josh Donaldson signing signaled that the front office is pushing their chips to the middle of the table in 2020. At 34 years old, Donaldson might only have two years of elite production left. Now might be the time to capitalize in making that final offseason move for "impact pitching" right?; not necessarily.
 
The Twins made a pair of early offseason moves to their staff with Odorizzi accepting their Qualifying Offer, Pineda coming back on a two year deal, and a pair of New Years Eve signings in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.
 
There is no doubt the Opening Day pitching staff still has some question marks but on paper this is a fine starting 5.
 
The question marks of course come from Pineda who is suspended for the first 39 games of 2020 and Rich Hill, who had "primary and revision" surgery and won't be back until "June or July".
 
Per Fangraphs Team Depth Charts 2020 Projections, the Twins starting staff projects to have a total WAR of 11.6, ranked 21st in MLB. Now, like I mentioned, this is because of the starts that should be made by Pineda and Hill in April - June will have to be made up by the likes of Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. Fangraphs projects that this trio will pitch 169 total innings - which may be too many for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. But if things shake out like the Twins hope, they will have a fine starting 5 for the second half of the year, not even factoring in a potential July 31st trade. But they have to get there first. That's the key.
 


 
As of right now there are two options the Twins have to add to their existing rotation, trade or sign a remaining free agent.
 
Sure, trading for a Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, or Jon Gray would be nice. However, it seems that with each day closer to Spring Training, that possibility dwindles.
 
What if they went a different direction...
 
What if they were able to sign a pitcher with starting experience who can bridge the gap in April and May to fill in until Pineda's return?
 
What if once he is not needed in the rotation anymore he can be added to the bullpen to strengthen the back end of baseball games?
 
What if he actually happens to be a very good reliever?
 
Enter, Collin McHugh.
 
Collin McHugh - The Starter
 
In 2016 - 2017, McHugh started 45 games for the Astros.
 
In 248 innings, McHugh posted a 4.14 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and a 8.7 k/9.
 


 
He missed quite a bit of time in 2017 with right shoulder tendonitis. In 2018 he pitched only in the bullpen (more on that in a minute).
 
In 2019, the Astros put McHugh in the rotation on Opening Day. On the surface his numbers are ugly as a starter.
 
In 8 starts, he posted a 6.37 ERA in 41 innings with a 9.2 k/9 allowing an OPS of .808 (yikes).
 


 
But let's break this down a bit and only focus on the first six starts he made in 2019, as that really is all the Twins would need out of him before Pineda is back on May 10th.
 


 
McHugh only had one rough start. If you eliminate that outing, 5 of those 6 starts were very good. He threw 28.2 innings, struck out 36 batters, had three quality starts (one out away from 4), and allowed 8 runs - a 2.51 ERA.
 
That tells a much different story.
 
Collin McHugh - The Reliever
 
As stated earlier, in 2018 McHugh became a full time reliever. He was outstanding posting a 1.99 ERA, 2.72 FIP, a 11.7 k/9 in 72.1 innings. He also pitched in 4 playoff games that year allowing zero runs in 4 innings.
 
After he was done starting in 2019, he went back to the Astros bullpen posting a 2.67 ERA, a 10.7 k/9, in 27 appearances across 33.2 innings.
 
 


 
Solid.
 
Do I think the Twins still need an "impact" SP to propel them to postseason success? Sure. Do I think the July 2019 Twins rotation could be very solid? Of course. But, they have to get there. Collin McHugh would help the Twins do that and add depth to an already established bullpen core for the second half of the season. A very hybrid and cost effective approach to bolstering the Opening Day Twins rotation. They can always wait to make their "impact pitching" move until the July 31st deadline. Signing McHugh would allow them the flexibility to do that.

Last week I wrote a blog titled 127 Feet where I tried to answer the question "Should Miguel Sano play 1B or 3B in 2020?". Well, that question has been answered in a BIG way by the Twins front office with the news of Josh Donaldson signing with the Twins.
 
So, I am repurposing some of the points I made in a prior blog to show the history of slugging, right handed 3B, transitioning to 1B.
 
My focus will be on Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Zimmerman.
 
I will be evaluating them in two different ways:
 
1. Their defensive and offensive metrics in their last season as a full time 3B
2. Their defensive and offensive metrics in their first season as a full time 1B
 
The defensive metrics I am using are a combination of your typical, pre-analytics, back of the baseball card stats, errors and fielding percentage, and more modern metrics like defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR), and UZR/150 which is just that stat scaled to an average number of chances for a season.
*Note: You can find more info on these stats from Fangraphs. I realize they have their limitations ie. UZR doesn’t factor in shifts and is a "relative positional average" compared to the other players in the league at that position, some positions are obviously harder to play than others as is the case here.
 
But nonetheless, this is what we are going to use for this exercise.
 
As a rule of thumb, negative (-) = bad
 
Miguel Cabrera:
 


 
Let’s start with Miguel Cabrera who Sano drew early comparisons to at the beginning of his career.
Cabrera started as a SS with the Marlins but quickly converted to 3B and stuck there until 2008 - his first year in Detroit. He was a full time first basemen until 2011, then the Tigers moved him back to 3B for the 2012 and 2013 seasons (his back-to-back MVP seasons) before ultimately moving him back to 1B for good in 2014.
 
He was never a strong defensive 3B (career -58 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150)
 
Offensively in 2007, his last year on the Marlins, Cabrera was solid, of course, with a .320/.401/.565 and 34 homers.
 
Defensively however, that was a different story.
 
In 1,310.2 innings he committed 23 errors, had a fielding % of .941, -19 DRS, and -5 UZR/150.
In 2008, his age 25 season, he moved to first base full time (for the first time). His metrics relative to his 1B peers were much improved from 3B.
 
In 1,245.2 innings his fielding % was .992, -7 DRS, and a -4.2 UZR/150. Not gold glove worthy but no doubt an improvement from the prior year. Offensively, his stats took a “dip” but he was still a very solid player.
 
Albert Pujols:
 


 
Personally, Fat Albert is one of my favorite baseball players of all time. As I kid, I wore #5 because of him. I know nobody cares - so moving on.
 
Drafted as a 3B in the 13th (!!!) round in 1999, Pujols quickly made his way to the majors making his debut in 2001. He made the Opening Day roster after H.O.F. 1B Mark McGwire said not putting Pujols on the team “would be one of the worst moves of his (Tony LaRussa’s) career”.
 
Pujols is a little odd compared to the rest of the group because the Cardinals never really had a true position for Albert until he moved to 1B full time in 2004. In years 2001 - 2003 he played 3B and LF because the Cardinals had *checks notes* 34 year old Tino Martinez at the first sacker in 2002. So, for the data below I combined his 3B metrics from 01 and 02.
 
In total, he played 96 games, 727.2 innings, committed 16 errors, had a fielding % of .938 and -6.9 UZR/150. (DRS apparently was not tracked prior to ‘03).
 
In his first year at 1B in 2004, his age 24 season, he made the transition flawlessly. In 1,338 innings he had a positive 7 DRS and 3.7 UZR. Offensively, he was a monster winning a silver slugger, finishing top-3 in the MVP voting, and was an All-Star.
 
Pujols of course remained at 1B the rest of his career, picking up Gold Gloves in ‘06 and ‘10 before ultimately limping out the rest of his days as the Angels DH.
 
I think Sano would take even a fraction of Pujols’ career as his ceiling.
 
*Note a couple things about Pujols and Cabrera: They both transitioned from 3B to 1B at relatively young ages. Miguel Sano will be 27 in May, 2020. He will be older than both these players when they made the switch.
 
Ryan Zimmerman:
 


 
Drafted as a 3B, the Nationals first ever pick in a Major League draft was Ryan Zimmerman.
 
He made his Major League debut in the year he was drafted (2005) and played 3B until 2013.
Overall, he was a VERY solid 3B (Gold Glove winner in 2009, if you care about those things) where he posted a positive 52 DRS, and 33.5 UZR for his career in 9925.2 innings. Shoulder injuries led to his downfall.
 
However, we are going to focus on his last year at the position and his subsequent move across the diamond.
In 2013, his aged 28 season, Zimmerman played 1,245.2 innings, committed 21 errors (.945 fielding %), and a -13.7 UZR/150. Offensively, he was solid posting a 124 wRC+ in 633 PA’s. This is all coming off of a shoulder surgery after the 2012 season, mind you.
 
At the end of the 2013 season, he was having injury issues again to the point where 2014 was basically a wash. His spot at the hot corner was taken by a fella by the name of Anthony Rendon. So in 2014, Zimmerman played in LF. It wasn’t until 2015 he took over at 1B.
 
His first year at 1B was solid defensively when he played. He only got into 93 games but played 792.1 innings of 1B, only made 4 errors (.995 fielding percentage), -1 DRS, and -.1 UZR/150 - not bad!
Offensively, he was barely above league average. It wasn’t until 2017 where he returned with authority. Again, keep in mind his health.
 
Overall, a very good transition over to 1B from 3B for Zimmerman.
 
Edwin Encarnacion:
 


 
Last on this list is the parrot-keeper himself, Edwin Encarnacion. Edwin has had an interesting career to say the least. People forget he started as a 3B (albeit a butcher of one, more on that in a minute).
 
Edwin was drafted in the 9th round by the Reds in the year 2000 as a 3B. Does anyone know who the Twins selected #2 overall that year? Bonus points if you do. It was Twins legend, Adam Johnson (who?) Adam Wainwright and Chase Utley were taken later in the first round. Sorry to pour salt in the wound...
 
He played there through his 2010 season, his first full one on the Blue Jays. I think they said, uh, yeah, I’ve seen enough.
 
In 95 games, 841.2 innings he made 18 (!!) errors. But somehow *only* posted -4 DRS and a positive .5 UZR/150.
After that he pretty much was positioned as a part-time DH and 1B.
 
His first “full” year at 1B was in 2012, his aged 29 season, when he broke out offensively. He played 68 games at first, 583.1 innings and was serviceable despite a -9.2 UZR/150. Note, it is tough to use this stat for less than a full season’s worth of data.
 
For his career at 1B he played 4,170 innings from 2011 - 2019 and was not awful with -20 DRS across all years and a -3.8 UZR/150.
 
Comparatively, his 3B career numbers (hold your laughs) were -52 DRS, -48.4 UZR, and 114 errors across 5,751.2 innings. He was much better defensively relative to the 1B in the league than 3B.
 
Miguel Sano:
 


 
Now, you probably are wondering, how does Miguel Sano compare to these players? Here you go.
 
Across 91 games in 2019 at 3B, Sano committed 17 errors (.926 fielding percentage), -5 DRS, and a -19.9 UZR/150.
 
Additionally, I looked at Sano’s career defensive metrics at 1B. Again, SUPER small sample size. He’s played 233 innings there, -2 DRS, and a -5.3 UZR/150. That is without dedicating 100% of his focus to the position. From his press conference yesterday, he said he is committed to play wherever the Twins put him. Now, that position is 1B
 
https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1217254719078518784?s=20
 
Sano is young and athletic enough where there is hope that he should be able to transition into an average defensive 1B relative to the rest of the league. It helps he has spent some time there. It's not a completely new position like him playing RF in 2016 (gasps).
 
In every scenario listed above, each player was a better 1B than 3B relative to their peers at those respective positions. Fans should not worry too much about Sano as there is no doubt Donaldson at 3B and Sano at 1B upgrades the entire Twins infield for 2020 and beyond.

Tonight Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. It's the largest in franchise history by nearly double the financial commitment, and it's the first major commitment placed by the new front office. Early into the decade or not, this one is something that will go down in history.
 
Last offseason I touched on Donaldson as a guy that the Twins should target. Coming off of injury it seemed like he could be a guy that they nail for a one-year deal and utilize as a massive superstar. Unfortunately he chose to make good in his hometown state, but the opportunity presented itself again. While the front office looked to be dragging their feet, and Donaldson was obviously angling for the largest payday, and eventual resolution was reached.
 
Although Donaldson is known for punishing baseballs into the stratosphere, he presents a far greater impact to a team like the Twins. With such strong infield defense at the hot corner, a reconfiguration of bodies on the corners should give the overall unit a boost. Rocco Baldelli's club was not good up the middle on the dirt last year, and Josh Donaldson has an ability to change that. We'll wait and see how Miguel Sano adapts to first base, but the assumption should be net zero at worst.
 
After possessing the second best lineup in baseball a year ago, the Bomba Squad just landed a guy who posted a .900 OPS on his own. There have been injury concerns in recent seasons, but a clean bill of health allowed performance to reign supreme in Atlanta. Adding that level of production to a group that tallied an .832 OPS is unheralded, and one way to combat staunch pitching.
 
There's certainly reason to gripe about what Minnesota has done on the mound. Michael Pineda and Rich Hill are nice additions, but neither are available from the outset. Falvey and Levine have built the rotation to compete when it matters, and this club will have a lineup capable of pounding the opposition to a pulp.
 
At this point there's no other option for those tossing out the "Pocket Protector" remarks and doubt towards the front office than to take a lap. Spending has always made the most sense when there's opportunity and sustenance behind it. We've reached that window, and the men in charge have made good.
 
Now, it's time to Bring the Rain.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into 2019 one of the biggest storylines was that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. New manager Rocco Baldelli had a rag tag group of arms, and there were more question marks than anyone would have liked. Fast forward a year and Wes Johnson transformed that narrative allowing 2020 to keep the unit entirely off the radar.
 
When the team broke from Spring Training down in Fort Myers last year, only six players were truly relievers. The group consisted of Taylor Rogers, Trevor Mayer, Blake Parker, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryne Harper. Of those, only three remain.
 
Over the course of 2019 that unit took on a considerably different feeling. From one of uncertainty to a relative strength, new faces were added, and steps forward were taken. When the dust settled, Minnesota’s unit posted the 3rd highest fWAR in baseball, and were on par with the vaunted Yankees relief corps. The 3.92 FIP was the best in baseball, and while they didn’t have the best strikeout rate, a 2.9 BB/9 led the sport as well.
 
Fast forward to today and the bullpen is all but settled. The Twins have some pieces to add on the roster, but this isn’t an area that needs work. With a 26-man roster for 2020, an eight-man staff to start out the year makes a good amount of sense. The names that make the most sense are Rogers, May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Cody Stashak, and Matt Wisler. As a holdover from 2019, Ryne Harper could also push to eek his way in.
 
This configuration includes hard throwers, bat missers, and guys with a strong ability to hit their spots. Breaking balls are present in the arms of Romo, Duffey, and Wisler. Littell and May can both shove, while arms like Rogers, Clippard, and Stashak are well rounded overall. This group doesn’t have names like Chapman or Britton, but you can bet that on performance alone, there’s household contributors to be utilized.
 
After needing to replace four-fifths of the starting rotation from last year, it’s there that the Twins will find the most question marks for the year ahead. Give credit to Wes Johnson stepping in and immediately establishing himself as a viable and impressive pitching coach at the Major League level. The rotation is now buoyed mainly by veterans, but the supplementation of younger arms will need to be positioned with opportunity for success.
 
Last season there was a good deal of changes made on the fly in the pen and being able to successfully navigate those waters provides a blueprint for the year ahead. No team will ever have enough pitching, and while Minnesota has flip-flopped the avenue in which they are needy, an infrastructure that fosters success is clearly in place.
 
We don’t yet know how the Twins relievers will perform in the year ahead, and volatility on that part of the roster is to be expected. Given where the narrative was just a season ago however, the development and change are to be celebrated.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz