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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    I'm not sure that logic follows. Men are overwhelmingly represented when it comes to sentences for violent crime. I would hardly call those laws sexist. The fact that a specific group is overrepresented doesn't automatically mean a law is unfairly targeting that group, or that the law is racist, sexist, ect. There's no doubt those players are returning to a country where regulations are lax and drugs like stanozolol aren't difficult to procure. That's unfortunate, but it's reality. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the ease with which Dominican players can obtain these drugs is a major contributor to the disproportionate number of them that are suspended. If you want to argue that these players should be better educated about what they can and cannot consume then I'm with you. If you want to argue that the severity of these suspensions is ridiculous and they're knee jerk reactions for the heat MLB took for the steroid era then I'm on board. Ultimately though, the responsibility falls on the player to make better decisions about what they're ingesting, regardless of whether the person handing them pills is a friend. These players have an enormous resource at their disposal, i.e. the Twins organization, and they're choosing not to use it.
  2. KirbyDome89
    1. Agreed, Mauer has to continue to play well. 2. Maybe I'm not as high on Morrison as others, but if we're placing bets on whether he's closer to 17' or the guy from 12'-16' I would lean towards the latter. 3. If Rooker's bat is forcing him onto the roster why can't he be the platoon RH OFer the team needs? If 1B is his eventual destination that's fine, but if he's currently capable of playing a corner OF spot at even a tolerable level that would be huge coup. 4. IMO Sano isn't a big factor in the Mauer decision. If he shows he's incapable of picking up a ball at 3B I don't particularly want to seem him roaming around at 1B either; slot him into the DH spot and let him spell Mauer in the field. Yes, the demands of 1B aren't as great, but I'll pass on moving on from a gold glove defender with a solid bat just to keep a guy whose ceiling is adequate defensive play onto the field. 5. Yes, he took a discount to stay in MN. He was an MVP, and an offensive monster at the catcher position. The idea that he couldn't have gone to larger markets and made more $$ isn't based in reality. If the Twins are willing to give him honest answers about his role and what direction they see the team moving in the next few years, and Mauer is content with those answers, then I think he certainly would be willing to do another hometown deal.
  3. KirbyDome89
    Totally... Apart from local media calling him "the softest of stars," for failing to recover from off season knee surgery in what they considered a reasonable time frame, or "brittle," for moving to 1B after multiple concussions affected his vision, or having his commitment to the team, his work ethic, and his presence in the clubhouse questioned by extension, yeah, I'd say he's had a really easy go of things....
  4. KirbyDome89
    "As such, the Twins owe it to themselves to get a good long look at Kinley." I think they owe it to themselves to have an honest look at Kinley. He shouldn't make the roster simply because they lost Chargois and/or Burdi to bring him in. Two wrongs don't make a right. Hopefully you're right and they work out a trade or just send him back.
  5. KirbyDome89
    FTFY
  6. KirbyDome89
    Sure, if these short deals are a stop gap to a more secure rotation I'm on board. My contention was that constant churning to fill out 2 or 3 spots might be even less reliable than a long term deal.
  7. KirbyDome89
    There's no arguing most of the benefits associated with a short term deal, but I'm not sure rotation through FAs is one of them. FA pitchers aren't signing short term deals because it's in their best interest. Those guys are signing 1 and 2 year deals because their hand is forced by recent issues regarding health and/or ineffectiveness. Yes, you're avoiding the backend of long term deals, but you're also taking on a significantly higher performance risk in the short term, and then you're compounding that risk by rotating arms through every year or two. If you're reshuffling the deck that often what are the chances you continue to hit on a high enough percentage of arms to fill out half a rotation? If we were talking about one or two spots near the bottom of that 8-10 man range I would be totally on board, but right now the plan is to find at least 2, maybe 3 arms, (depending on how Gonsalves and Romero turn out) to slot into that top 5 range. IMO there's plenty of downside to that strategy.
  8. KirbyDome89
    5 of their 10 "best," starters are gone within that two year frame. I would qualify that as a need. Right now they have Romero, Gonsalves, and ....? Saying they'll spend the $$ cleared on big time FAs in the future is nothing but false hope.
  9. KirbyDome89
    There's a strong desire by some to reaffirm that the current FO > the former. A convenient way of doing this is holding up positive moves the current FO makes and proclaiming the previous regime was incapable of doing anything similar with no regard given to the validity of such proclamations. The old FO has become a punching bag for hyperbole. Their failures necessitated a change, but the topic has become polarized to the point where acknowledging that direct comparisons aren't necessarily fair or viable in some areas is a "defense."
  10. KirbyDome89
    TR never had this kind of money to work with either. MN was a lower tier payroll every season during his first tenure, and when he came back after 2011 the Twins started slashing $$ and "rebuilding." It's disingenuous to say he was incapable of making the moves we've seen when he never really had the opportunity to do so.
  11. KirbyDome89
    That has been my contention the whole time. I'm not sure why pointing that out is being "tough," on the FO but hopefully he makes good on proving himself.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Of course, K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are all factors in FIP. The point was that they all moved in the wrong direction, and the HR rate shockingly so. I agree, some guys just seem to get by with wider margins between ERA and FIP. They're the exception to the rule. His FIP-ERA pre TJ was usually around .5, which I believe would put him into that "exception," group, but last season that FIP-ERA margin tripled. Even for a guy who typically has an ERA lower than his FIP that's an alarming spike. He's coming off a season missed with TJ surgery, followed by a year where his peripheral stats dipped to career lows, and now he's pitching in the AL. That doesn't instill a ton of confidence in me.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Yes, the market was certainly was down; Darvish moved from 6/160 to 6/126 and JD Martinez "settled," for 5/110. Teams are adjusting their approach to FA but $$ is still being spent; Wade Davis just signed the largest relief contract ever and Eric Hosmer somehow was able to coax an eighth year out of San Diego. It's fair to say most FAs didn't get exactly what they were looking for, but the upper tier players still walked away with significant deals. Lynn just isn't anywhere near that group and I think that the interest/offers he received reflected that. Yeah his career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but his 2016 TJ surgery followed by a 2017 season where he posted a career high 4.82 FIP, a decreased SO rate, an increased BB rate, and a HR rate that nearly doubled in the NL makes me nervous.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Odorizzi was acquired straight up for Palacios, and Lynn wasn't fielding interest anywhere near the level he'd hoped for. MN isn't pulling one over on TB and the rest of the league with these acquisitions. There are reasons the Twins were able to bring these two in for "virtually nothing." They each have question marks after their respective performances last season. Yes, they're better than Mejia and Hughes, and I said as much in an earlier post, but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. I gave the FO credit for pivoting and solidifying a starting rotation that badly needed it, but I'm not going to pretend like either of these two are front end talent. Realistic would be a better adjective for those who don't share your confident outlook.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Darvish. That back half of the contract is usually rough, but I think it's almost universally accepted at this point that you view the last few years as payment for the expected immediate production. We're banking on Lynn and Odorizzi reverting back to better form. Morrison has to prove he's the guy who slugged an OPS+ of 135 last year, and not the guy who has been about average the 5 years prior to last. Of all those players I think Darvish is the safest bet to have the steadiest and most productive season. Barring injury, I think Chicago can reasonably expect X amount of production out of him. I don't think the same can be said for any of Lynn, Odorizzi, or Morrison. They're all question marks when it comes to this season. Look, the FO did a nice job adding depth to the starting rotation this offseason. If this was plan B after Darvish, then count me in. Lynn and Odorizzi aren't sexy but they're better than Mejia and Hughes. At this point I think more has to go wrong than right for the Twins to not be in the WC hunt, which is a big step from where they were a few months ago. That said, it's still a rotation full of mid to back end guys. I was hoping for more quality than quantity.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Not exactly exciting, but for one year it's hard to complain. Short term, "value," deals seem to be the MO of this FO. Hopefully the long term $$ is being saved for a slew of extensions for the core.
  17. KirbyDome89
    That's a fair point. If you could assure me that the $$ saved on a Dozier deal would be allocated entirely towards an area of greater need (hello starting pitching,) then I would be much more receptive to the idea of letting him go. I bring this up in a lot of threads, but they've put all their eggs in the development basket so I feel like every move this club makes hinges on what happens with the current core of players. How many of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, ect are sticking around past 21' or 22'? If all or a majority of those guys decide they're going to test FA what are the chances the Twins are willing to sign even half of them? It's likely in the best interest of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios to test FA, and depending on how Rosario and Polanco perform over the next season or two they might find themselves in that same boat. If a good portion of the current core is gone within the next 4-5 years, the Twins might be better off trying to maximize they currently have, and I think retaining Dozier is a step in that direction.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Exactly. He's so much more valuable to a good team. IMO the decision to hold onto him after losing 100+ games a few years ago, and the decision to let him walk now that the Twins look like they're opening a window of contention conflict. I'm all about building from within, but if we're being realistic the chances of any MI prospect stepping in and replacing Dozier's production are slim. I've read other posts that suggest other players aside from Gordon or whoever ends up at 2B continue to improve and pick up the slack, but wouldn't the team still be better off with Dozier + the improved supporting cast? The spark notes version is that it isn't as easy as just plug in prospect X and everybody improves so the team rolls along. If the Twins are serious about trying to win while Buxton, Sano, ect are all still under rookie deals/early arbitration then it's going to a hell of a lot easier with Dozier than without him.
  19. KirbyDome89
    He has been consistently inconsistent. I'm not sure why we're supposed to put more stock into a handful of games against bad teams and expanded rosters rather than almost 2 years of entirely underwhelming pitching.
  20. KirbyDome89
    There's a difference between working to get a good deal, and flat out lowballing. Also, insulting offers do exist. I've spent a decent amount of timing buy/selling motorcycles and parts. I never offer the asking price, nobody does, but I'm always aware of market value for bikes/parts and I'm careful to make sure that my offers, while always slightly in my favor, aren't egregiously one sided. Say I offer $3.5K cash and leave myself wiggle room up to $3.7K in negotiations before I bow out on a bike listed at $4K. That's very different than offering $1,200 or some other number well below the bike's value. Honestly, those are the kind of lowball offers you receive via text because the individual is either too embarrassed to ask over the phone/in person, or they know it's a long shot and they don't want to waste their time talking. At that point I ask the same question raised above; why bother? The market this winter is clearly depressed. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Twins trying to take advantage of that, in fact I think they should, but to me 2/20 feels more like a text offer, and Lynn obviously felt the same way.
  21. KirbyDome89
    "Value,".... Joking.... Kind of....
  22. KirbyDome89
    This. 1) Dozier leaving is a big loss offensively. It isn't as easy as just plug in Gordon and the bats keep rolling. 2) Are we sure most if not all of this young core will be here after 4 years? If they're going to be "too expensive," then I'd rather pay Dozier and maximize the current window. 3) I understand letting him walk saves $$ but Mike made a good point above. What are they going to do with that money?
  23. KirbyDome89
    Not that RBIs are particularly telling but he has basically driven in 100 runs from the leadoff spot each of the past few seasons. That number would jump significantly if the Twins decided to hit him in the 3 or 4 hole. He has been delivering for a while now.
  24. KirbyDome89
    There have plenty of moves to question this offseason but letting Gimenez go isn't one of them.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Meh, I think a healthy Chargois is a better use of a 40 man spot than Kinley or even Sanchez. Kinley belongs in AA. Sanchez should be on a minor league contract and he's coming off a string of terrible seasons. I wouldn't make a habit of giving up a healthy pitcher with real upside while holding onto guys like the two mentioned. Chargois has his own flaws but he's a better pitcher than a few of the guys on the 40 man.
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