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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Darvish. That back half of the contract is usually rough, but I think it's almost universally accepted at this point that you view the last few years as payment for the expected immediate production. We're banking on Lynn and Odorizzi reverting back to better form. Morrison has to prove he's the guy who slugged an OPS+ of 135 last year, and not the guy who has been about average the 5 years prior to last. Of all those players I think Darvish is the safest bet to have the steadiest and most productive season. Barring injury, I think Chicago can reasonably expect X amount of production out of him. I don't think the same can be said for any of Lynn, Odorizzi, or Morrison. They're all question marks when it comes to this season. Look, the FO did a nice job adding depth to the starting rotation this offseason. If this was plan B after Darvish, then count me in. Lynn and Odorizzi aren't sexy but they're better than Mejia and Hughes. At this point I think more has to go wrong than right for the Twins to not be in the WC hunt, which is a big step from where they were a few months ago. That said, it's still a rotation full of mid to back end guys. I was hoping for more quality than quantity.
  2. KirbyDome89
    That second tweet is particularly interesting. I'm curious how much a one year deal with a chance to reset his value for next offseason influenced his decision. I guess without details of the other offers it's hard to tell, but I would guess those other offers also included more years of team control at a lower AAV.
  3. KirbyDome89
    Not exactly exciting, but for one year it's hard to complain. Short term, "value," deals seem to be the MO of this FO. Hopefully the long term $$ is being saved for a slew of extensions for the core.
  4. KirbyDome89
    That's a fair point. If you could assure me that the $$ saved on a Dozier deal would be allocated entirely towards an area of greater need (hello starting pitching,) then I would be much more receptive to the idea of letting him go. I bring this up in a lot of threads, but they've put all their eggs in the development basket so I feel like every move this club makes hinges on what happens with the current core of players. How many of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, ect are sticking around past 21' or 22'? If all or a majority of those guys decide they're going to test FA what are the chances the Twins are willing to sign even half of them? It's likely in the best interest of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios to test FA, and depending on how Rosario and Polanco perform over the next season or two they might find themselves in that same boat. If a good portion of the current core is gone within the next 4-5 years, the Twins might be better off trying to maximize they currently have, and I think retaining Dozier is a step in that direction.
  5. KirbyDome89
    Exactly. He's so much more valuable to a good team. IMO the decision to hold onto him after losing 100+ games a few years ago, and the decision to let him walk now that the Twins look like they're opening a window of contention conflict. I'm all about building from within, but if we're being realistic the chances of any MI prospect stepping in and replacing Dozier's production are slim. I've read other posts that suggest other players aside from Gordon or whoever ends up at 2B continue to improve and pick up the slack, but wouldn't the team still be better off with Dozier + the improved supporting cast? The spark notes version is that it isn't as easy as just plug in prospect X and everybody improves so the team rolls along. If the Twins are serious about trying to win while Buxton, Sano, ect are all still under rookie deals/early arbitration then it's going to a hell of a lot easier with Dozier than without him.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Dozier wasn't the only piece that could've been moved. I'm not buying the notion that there was no package MN could have put together to bring in pitching. The term equity is being skewed if you're suggesting that Dozier was enough to land a top pitching prospect. No team was going to make that 1-1 swap, and for good reason. It's hard to say no trade was available or no market could have existed if the Twins were asking for a return which was pricing everybody out. You can't claim that exploring the opposite of the decision regarding Dozier isn't possible because it never happened, yet in the same breath claim that moving him for JDL would've certainly been a "bad," move. I believe judging a decision based on the circumstances when it occurs is most important, but subsequent events/details also effect how it's viewed. If we're using JDL's most recent injury to reaffirm that trading for him would've been a disaster, then the inability to add impact pitching, and the seemingly foregone conclusion that Dozier is walking are also admissible when forming an opinion. Or we can go the chaos theory route. A butterfly flaps its wings, blah blah blah.....we'll never know how anything could've turn out.
  7. KirbyDome89
    He has been consistently inconsistent. I'm not sure why we're supposed to put more stock into a handful of games against bad teams and expanded rosters rather than almost 2 years of entirely underwhelming pitching.
  8. KirbyDome89
    You're right, pitching is more difficult to find. That said, the notion that it takes 2 willing participants to get a deal done works both ways. Last year was the first time Dozier put together a season that was consistently good from start to finish. He had that crazy end to 16' and he was an AS in 15' but sandwiched between those two was nearly an entire season of uninspiring play. The notion seems to be that LA was coming up short in offering value for Dozier, but I find it hard to believe that if the roles were reversed, Twins fans would view giving up a guy like Bellinger or a top pitching prospect for Dozier as fair value. Trade packages weren't limited to only involving Dozier, and MN wasn't constrained to only working with LA. The decision not to trade Dozier wasn't a bad one, it just may not have been the right one. He has provided plenty for the Twins. The issue is the subsequent action, or lack thereof, to address the reason he was being shopped. When you add that the fact he isn't likely to return after this season, it makes the whole thing even more head scratching.
  9. KirbyDome89
    There's a difference between working to get a good deal, and flat out lowballing. Also, insulting offers do exist. I've spent a decent amount of timing buy/selling motorcycles and parts. I never offer the asking price, nobody does, but I'm always aware of market value for bikes/parts and I'm careful to make sure that my offers, while always slightly in my favor, aren't egregiously one sided. Say I offer $3.5K cash and leave myself wiggle room up to $3.7K in negotiations before I bow out on a bike listed at $4K. That's very different than offering $1,200 or some other number well below the bike's value. Honestly, those are the kind of lowball offers you receive via text because the individual is either too embarrassed to ask over the phone/in person, or they know it's a long shot and they don't want to waste their time talking. At that point I ask the same question raised above; why bother? The market this winter is clearly depressed. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Twins trying to take advantage of that, in fact I think they should, but to me 2/20 feels more like a text offer, and Lynn obviously felt the same way.
  10. KirbyDome89
    "Value,".... Joking.... Kind of....
  11. KirbyDome89
    I think he's more valuable to a team that is nearing or at contention rather than one coming off a 100+ loss season. Keeping him was a "win now," move which was fine, the issue was that they really didn't do much to set the team up to win beyond retaining Dozier, and now with the Twins starting to open a window of contention, it seems they're content to let him walk. You're more bullish on replacing him than I am. I don't think it's as easy as everybody picking up the slack. They're going to miss his bat in the lineup. I don't think praise is in order when they haven't addressed the issue that warranted the Dozier trade talks. That isn't the same as blaming the FO.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Maybe he helps them slug their way past the WC game this season. Who knows. I never said the decision to hold onto him damaged the team. The point of moving Dozier was to bring back pitching help, so I was on board with trading him. They decided to keep him, and that has turned out to be a good move, but they haven't done much to improve a poor rotation. Like I said, Dozier has provided value, but I'm not going to applaud the FO for the decision not to trade him, when they've done little to address the area that necessitated trading him, and to boot they're seemingly willing to let him go for a compensation pick. He can't be too valuable to trade then suddenly not valuable enough to extend.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Right now Dozier is clearly more valuable than De Leon. JDL may have been the best offer they were going to get, and at the time I was in favor of moving Dozier. I would've been in favor of almost any market value deal for Dozier. The fact JDL hasn't been able to stay healthy doesn't mean the decision to forego any trade for Dozier was the right one. The impetus for trading him was the lack of pitching. That's still a massive problem for this franchise. We can pat the FO on the back for not making the JDL deal, but it has been 2 years now and the Twins are still in bad situation in regards to pitching. The whole point of a Dozier trade was to help fix that. This isn't an extreme case of "I'd rather try and fail than not try at all," and Dozier clearly has provided value since the decision to hold onto him, but I have a hard time getting too excited. It looks like he could be on his way out the door this offseason, and the pitching staff once again is set up to be a major weakness.
  14. KirbyDome89
    This. 1) Dozier leaving is a big loss offensively. It isn't as easy as just plug in Gordon and the bats keep rolling. 2) Are we sure most if not all of this young core will be here after 4 years? If they're going to be "too expensive," then I'd rather pay Dozier and maximize the current window. 3) I understand letting him walk saves $$ but Mike made a good point above. What are they going to do with that money?
  15. KirbyDome89
    Not that RBIs are particularly telling but he has basically driven in 100 runs from the leadoff spot each of the past few seasons. That number would jump significantly if the Twins decided to hit him in the 3 or 4 hole. He has been delivering for a while now.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I would be extremely disappointed if it was MN passing on almost any kind of extension that bought out FA years. That's a really good question. Even if Buxton never becomes the hitter we hope he will, they probably still save some $$ buying out those arbitration seasons, and we know the FO/ownership loves "value." Maybe Buxton enjoys might enjoy some of the security security provided. IMO this is really the only type of extension that makes sense if I'm Buxton and it probably works out for the Twins too. From a fan perspective it's underwhelming.
  17. KirbyDome89
    There have plenty of moves to question this offseason but letting Gimenez go isn't one of them.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Yeah they might as well hold onto him until the end of ST. Absolutely 0 harm in that. IMO the "ST stats don't really matter," sentiment is starting to become a pretty convenient shield. He hasn't been an effective pitcher for a while now. Poor ST performances at this point should be big red flags, not shoulder shrugs.
  19. KirbyDome89
    A lot of the pitching in ST isn't MLB level either.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Meh, I think a healthy Chargois is a better use of a 40 man spot than Kinley or even Sanchez. Kinley belongs in AA. Sanchez should be on a minor league contract and he's coming off a string of terrible seasons. I wouldn't make a habit of giving up a healthy pitcher with real upside while holding onto guys like the two mentioned. Chargois has his own flaws but he's a better pitcher than a few of the guys on the 40 man.
  21. KirbyDome89
    I'm cringing at almost the entire rotation to start the year. The Twins are banking on A LOT of things to work out in their favor. Scary....
  22. KirbyDome89
    FWIW Chargois isn't hurt. When the Twins placed him on waivers the prevailing sentiment was "can't pitch from the trainer's table, the guy is always hurt...." It's true, he has dealt with injuries for a good chunk of the past few seasons, but right now isn't one of those times. MN tried to sneak him through and they got caught. IMO that's a mistake. There are others on the 40 man who are infinitely more expendable.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Burdi and Chargois. As the 40 man stands now there's no reason Chargois had to go, and Burdi wouldn't have even needed to be added back until the end of May.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Injuries. Nobody wants to see them and there's no such thing as good timing but they're inevitable. I would love to see some of the young arms have a chance to throw some MLB innings before they're 26 y/o fringe 40 man decisions. Obviously all development rates are different, and injuries in the minors can halt progress. However, you never know how long an arm is going to last, and having young, live arms on the major league roster gives the Twins the best chance to maximize the return on their investment.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Oh for sure, I don't think anybody thought Dozier was going to hit 40+ HRs again. Idk if the FO is banking on Morrison hitting 30+ HR this season, but they must think he's going to be significantly better than he was the 5 seasons before this last one.
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