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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    I don't think anybody is very high on Mejia, but a day old ham sandwich is still better than licking dirt. We're talking about the lesser of two evils here, but given how bad Hughes has looked recently, and in the not so distant past, it isn't like we're splitting hairs when picking a side.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Since win probability was brought up multiple times I don't think it was assumption to believe it was part of the argument. HIs point was that neither Hughes nor Mejia move the needle much. My contention was that he's using the wrong gauge.
  3. KirbyDome89
    That isn't selective quoting. You're literally implying that because the Twins won't be favored in those games, the differences between all those guys vying for that 5th spot are insignificant, and therefore a cost can't be associated with whichever way the decision goes. There is no "best option," if, as you say, the difference between the pitchers won't change anything significantly. Those are two contradicting claims. Either Hughes is equivalent to Mejia and/or all other options, or as you contend, one pitcher is the best option, in which case failing to give that guy the 5th spot costs this team a greater opportunity to win those games. Period Idk if you're talking about win probability as a statistic, or if you're setting personal odds. If you're trying to use actual win probability to analyze individual performance then good luck.
  4. KirbyDome89
    So tank those games? It's Hughes vs. Mejia or another option to start those games. The opponent and win probability are irrelevant.
  5. KirbyDome89
    They might not be favored in any of the other games in either of those series. That doesn't mean they won't throw their best available pitcher and try to get a win. I'm not sure why the two starts in question should be any different.
  6. KirbyDome89
    1. Agreed, Mauer has to continue to play well. 2. Maybe I'm not as high on Morrison as others, but if we're placing bets on whether he's closer to 17' or the guy from 12'-16' I would lean towards the latter. 3. If Rooker's bat is forcing him onto the roster why can't he be the platoon RH OFer the team needs? If 1B is his eventual destination that's fine, but if he's currently capable of playing a corner OF spot at even a tolerable level that would be huge coup. 4. IMO Sano isn't a big factor in the Mauer decision. If he shows he's incapable of picking up a ball at 3B I don't particularly want to seem him roaming around at 1B either; slot him into the DH spot and let him spell Mauer in the field. Yes, the demands of 1B aren't as great, but I'll pass on moving on from a gold glove defender with a solid bat just to keep a guy whose ceiling is adequate defensive play onto the field. 5. Yes, he took a discount to stay in MN. He was an MVP, and an offensive monster at the catcher position. The idea that he couldn't have gone to larger markets and made more $$ isn't based in reality. If the Twins are willing to give him honest answers about his role and what direction they see the team moving in the next few years, and Mauer is content with those answers, then I think he certainly would be willing to do another hometown deal.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Totally... Apart from local media calling him "the softest of stars," for failing to recover from off season knee surgery in what they considered a reasonable time frame, or "brittle," for moving to 1B after multiple concussions affected his vision, or having his commitment to the team, his work ethic, and his presence in the clubhouse questioned by extension, yeah, I'd say he's had a really easy go of things....
  8. KirbyDome89
    So they pay a real price now i.e. giving innings to a lesser pitcher and limit themselves to start the year for the chance that a hypothetical plays out? If Enns is getting starts in a 4 man rotation then the season has likely gone sideways already, but for the sake of argument even if it hasn't, they cross that bridge when they get there.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Unless somebody is of the belief that Hughes still has something left and/or he's on equal ground with Mejia in terms of expected contribution, I really don't understand how or why having the lesser pitcher in the rotation is being rationalized as ok. It's not. I care about Mejia going north for the same reason I cared about Berrios starting last season in the rotation; you want your 5 best pitchers in the rotation at all times. If there's a better option than Mejia then by all means put him in your pocket, but that isn't the case. How is having a better pitcher starting in AAA advantageous compared to having him pitching for the Twins? Why start at a disadvantage? it's illogical to think that they're equally well off starting a worse pitcher for any amount of time. All games matter. The point is to give yourself the best chance to win each one and if you don't think Hughes is the better pitcher, but you're handing him starts to preserve depth, then you're not doing that.
  10. KirbyDome89
    "As such, the Twins owe it to themselves to get a good long look at Kinley." I think they owe it to themselves to have an honest look at Kinley. He shouldn't make the roster simply because they lost Chargois and/or Burdi to bring him in. Two wrongs don't make a right. Hopefully you're right and they work out a trade or just send him back.
  11. KirbyDome89
    Well if they're holding onto him simply for depth purposes and that forces him into the starting rotation then it does matter. I don't think anybody is accusing the FO of trying not to win games, but I also don't think it's inconceivable that Hughes salary is the driving force for him "getting another look." It wasn't pretty last year but the FO got a pass because the rotation was awful, the team wasn't expected to any good, and it was their evaluation period. Hughes wasn't good. At all. Now coming off a second surgery and looking pretty much the same as he did at this point last year, why are we expecting anything different? Like I said, it really just comes down to whether he's better than some of what they have behind him, and to this point I don't think he has shown anything to say he's any different than the guy we saw last year. IMO Mejia can top that.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Yes and no. You're right, Hughes performance one way or another is guaranteed. I don't think he has shown anything in the last couple years to suggest that he'll be anything other than a guy who's going to labor through innings. It's tough for that type of pitcher to consistently keep their team in games if they're throwing bp and trying to get by on smoke, mirrors, and luck.
  13. KirbyDome89
    The depth argument in favor of holding onto Hughes doesn't make much sense. It doesn't sound like you're carrying much water for Hughes, but I don't currently see a positive outcome for the situation. Sure, by definition putting better pitchers behind him improves depth, but that's hurting the team in the short term just to keep a guy, who's essentially a replaceable waiver wire flier at this point, in the starting lineup. IMO there isn't any good way to rationalize not having your 5 best pitchers starting the season. The fact we're even talking about short hooks for a veteran pitcher like Hughes should tell us all we need to know about whether or not he belongs in the rotation.
  14. KirbyDome89
    FTFY
  15. KirbyDome89
    Exactly. This team isn't good enough to just give away Ws. If Mejia is the better pitcher (and he is) then he should have that 5th spot if they're moving back towards a five man rotation. 1.5 months of extra time between MLB starts isn't going to derail his development.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Sure, if these short deals are a stop gap to a more secure rotation I'm on board. My contention was that constant churning to fill out 2 or 3 spots might be even less reliable than a long term deal.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Can you think of an offseason where TR had nearly $30M to spend, the market was down, and key large market teams weren't players in FA? There are certainly ways the new FO has improved operations. I don't know why we can't just be happy with that. IMO the two FOs have made a lot of similar moves, but there's an effort to view the recent ones as glass half full and the previous ones as glass half empty.
  18. KirbyDome89
    There's no arguing most of the benefits associated with a short term deal, but I'm not sure rotation through FAs is one of them. FA pitchers aren't signing short term deals because it's in their best interest. Those guys are signing 1 and 2 year deals because their hand is forced by recent issues regarding health and/or ineffectiveness. Yes, you're avoiding the backend of long term deals, but you're also taking on a significantly higher performance risk in the short term, and then you're compounding that risk by rotating arms through every year or two. If you're reshuffling the deck that often what are the chances you continue to hit on a high enough percentage of arms to fill out half a rotation? If we were talking about one or two spots near the bottom of that 8-10 man range I would be totally on board, but right now the plan is to find at least 2, maybe 3 arms, (depending on how Gonsalves and Romero turn out) to slot into that top 5 range. IMO there's plenty of downside to that strategy.
  19. KirbyDome89
    5 of their 10 "best," starters are gone within that two year frame. I would qualify that as a need. Right now they have Romero, Gonsalves, and ....? Saying they'll spend the $$ cleared on big time FAs in the future is nothing but false hope.
  20. KirbyDome89
    There's a strong desire by some to reaffirm that the current FO > the former. A convenient way of doing this is holding up positive moves the current FO makes and proclaiming the previous regime was incapable of doing anything similar with no regard given to the validity of such proclamations. The old FO has become a punching bag for hyperbole. Their failures necessitated a change, but the topic has become polarized to the point where acknowledging that direct comparisons aren't necessarily fair or viable in some areas is a "defense."
  21. KirbyDome89
    TR never had this kind of money to work with either. MN was a lower tier payroll every season during his first tenure, and when he came back after 2011 the Twins started slashing $$ and "rebuilding." It's disingenuous to say he was incapable of making the moves we've seen when he never really had the opportunity to do so.
  22. KirbyDome89
    That has been my contention the whole time. I'm not sure why pointing that out is being "tough," on the FO but hopefully he makes good on proving himself.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Of course, K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are all factors in FIP. The point was that they all moved in the wrong direction, and the HR rate shockingly so. I agree, some guys just seem to get by with wider margins between ERA and FIP. They're the exception to the rule. His FIP-ERA pre TJ was usually around .5, which I believe would put him into that "exception," group, but last season that FIP-ERA margin tripled. Even for a guy who typically has an ERA lower than his FIP that's an alarming spike. He's coming off a season missed with TJ surgery, followed by a year where his peripheral stats dipped to career lows, and now he's pitching in the AL. That doesn't instill a ton of confidence in me.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Yes, the market was certainly was down; Darvish moved from 6/160 to 6/126 and JD Martinez "settled," for 5/110. Teams are adjusting their approach to FA but $$ is still being spent; Wade Davis just signed the largest relief contract ever and Eric Hosmer somehow was able to coax an eighth year out of San Diego. It's fair to say most FAs didn't get exactly what they were looking for, but the upper tier players still walked away with significant deals. Lynn just isn't anywhere near that group and I think that the interest/offers he received reflected that. Yeah his career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but his 2016 TJ surgery followed by a 2017 season where he posted a career high 4.82 FIP, a decreased SO rate, an increased BB rate, and a HR rate that nearly doubled in the NL makes me nervous.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Odorizzi was acquired straight up for Palacios, and Lynn wasn't fielding interest anywhere near the level he'd hoped for. MN isn't pulling one over on TB and the rest of the league with these acquisitions. There are reasons the Twins were able to bring these two in for "virtually nothing." They each have question marks after their respective performances last season. Yes, they're better than Mejia and Hughes, and I said as much in an earlier post, but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. I gave the FO credit for pivoting and solidifying a starting rotation that badly needed it, but I'm not going to pretend like either of these two are front end talent. Realistic would be a better adjective for those who don't share your confident outlook.
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