KirbyDome89

I agree with Tom, it's nice that the Twins are on the other side of the "play the game the right way," argument. I'd love to see Molitor, Dozier, and the rest of the team that was vocal about their displeasure towards opponents earlier in the season do the same here and call out Cash, Archer, ect. for acting like asses. Throwing at Escobar because you're pissed after imploding is one of the weakest things I've seen in a while. TB should be embarrassed but hey, Dozier shouldn't have clapped his hands.....

Odorizzi? I get the feeling if the offer was the other way around Twins fans would feel insulted,

Current potential and career peak are two very different levels. Dozier's career hasn't been nuclear. Last season was the only one where he was consistently good for an entire calendar season; before that it was Jekyll and Hyde with him. Mauer is right near his production level in three of the last four seasons. I hoped 17' was a slight return to form but that may be the outlier, and this might be who Joe is now. For as good as Polanco was in the second half last season, he struggled quite a bit to start the year. We have no idea where his true production level lies, so banking on second half Jorge seems like a stretch. Morrison will no doubt hit a few more HRs if the Twins continue to feed him ABs, but I doubt the extent to which he heats up is significant enough to do much damage for reasons I alluded to in another post. Kepler is on pace to be pretty much the guy we've seen the last two years; expecting more is asking him to play above what we've seen from him so far in his young career.Buxton would immediately help the defense but asking anything from his bat is too much. Sano has a better chance to contribute on offense, but right now he isn't playing more than two games in a row at A ball. There's still no timetable for his return. If (hopefully when) either comes back what value they do provide is likely too little too late.I'd love to see Romero and Gonsalves get some innings. Who knows what they'll get out of Gonsalves but Romero would be an improvement over Lynn and the current rotation through the 5 spot. We're not getting 17' first half Ervin. He's barely touching 90 as of right now. Expecting him to come back and immediately be a plus pitcher is again asking too much. So many "if's." Yeah, it takes a certain amount of blind "Homerism," to point out a hole in the Indians' ship, especially when the Twins are Swiss cheese.

Right, I'm not arguing what the numbers are, but we disagree as to their underlying cause. I think his poor season has more to do with his approach at the plate, how other teams pitch/play him defensively, and diminished skills with a small amount of "bad luck," sprinkled in. Ninety games and 300 PAs is massive sample in which to be unlucky. It's not a coincidence that as his HR numbers went up last season, and have trended up this season, his FB/GB rates have essentially reversed. His K% has been stable over those years, but it also made a significant jump for the mid teens to the low 20s after he arrived in TB. He's seeing a significantly higher % of fastballs this year, yet his K rate has been stable, which suggests that he isn't handling that pitch as well as he used to. I would consider that a sign that indeed his skills are sliding. If he's guessing or "cheating," on some pitches that might explain the increase in his IF fly ball rate. His pull % has also gone up despite teams shifting against him. He's 300 PAs into the season already; I'm not buying that he's simply pressing. Can some of the BABIP dip be due to "bad luck?" Sure, I would bet that his slash line isn't indicative of where his skill level lies. We're in agreement that 17' was an aberration but I think it's more likely we see the 15' version of Morrison rather than 14' edition moving forward.

Yeah, it's asking a lot for 5+ players to all start playing well above where they have for the bulk of the season, and all at roughly the same time. Just look at that list.... Cleveland isn't a juggernaut by any means but you have to put some serious blinders on to start poking holes in that team while ignoring just how flawed the Twins roster is. Paper is irrelevant; they've played 89 games to this point and so far we can safely say this isn't a good team.

I'd love the movie but I'm not remotely confident in it coming to fruition. Even if the Twins manage to win every remaining game against Cleveland, which is a monumental task in itself, they need the Indians to completely reverse the course they set during the first half of the season. That's far from controlling their season. The Twins didn't exactly look great last night either. Apart from a few Ws against a historically bad team last weekend they've ranged from terrible to not good over the last 2-3 weeks. That isn't a team that's going to "win out." His K% is about the same as it was the last 2 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's making more outs in the air after shifting his focus to hitting more HRs. I'm not sure Morrison is a guy you want hitting GBs anyway. We're also ignoring the fact that he's about to turn 31. At some point those career numbers that are buoyed by his performance in his mid to late 20s becomes the peak and not the norm. "Bad luck," seems to be a placeholder until optimism can no longer be justified.

I'd buy that Thibs negatively impacts their offensive games. I'm not sure there's an excuse for the defense either pretends to play.

No, likely not, but LA, Boston, Philly, and maybe Utah and Denver look like they'll be good for years to come. I'm not arguing that the Wolves are in a good situation. If Towns can't recruit anybody to MN (likely) and nobody is willing to take Wiggins (likely) they don't have a ton of options other than drafting talent. I don't think there's any chance Butler stays here if both Wiggins and Towns are on the team; hell, he might just be on the way out regardless. I got my hopes up about the Wolves trading for Kyrie last summer when he was interested in going to MN. In a perfect world they could make a Wiggins/Kyrie swap work and roll the dice on Butler & Kyrie staying. If both leave then they're back to tanking, and at least they're out from under that Wiggins contract. That's the pipe dream. If Butler bounces then yeah, playing the lottery might be their only hope, and it seems likely they'll go that route. If he's willing to sign an extension then I think the Wolves have to hope Wiggins becomes that third star and supplement around those 3. It's far from ideal, but that's the bed they made by giving him that extension. Is it likely that the Wolves or any other team supplant GS during that time? No, but again that applies to every other team as well. My only disagreement is the notion that because they won't be a favorite to reach the WCF they shouldn't try to compete.

Pennant race? The Twins won't get to play the O's and Royals the rest of the season. The 06' comparisons have been beaten to death but it was over a month ago that matching the pace necessary to make the postseason was nearing 06' territory. Rightfully, most were skeptical. That was with 3/4 of the season left to play. We're at the halfway point now and since then the Twins have only damaged what little chance they had. They play 162 games; the fact that their chance of reaching the postseason is > 0% isn't particularly meaningful. They don't control their own destiny either. Sure, they have a handful of games remaining against Cleveland, but they also need the Indians to collapse, as much as they need to maintain a torrid win pace. If you want to hold out hope that they'll make a historical second half run, then more power to you, but for all realistic purposes this team isn't contending. I don't want next year's Lance Lynn. I have 0 interest in a pitcher with iffy peripherals, coming off a serious injury. There's a reason MN signed him for 1 year, and no other teams expressed real interest, and Lynn has shown us exactly what that reason was. I'd bet that money ultimately decides where Escobar ends up, not a few more meaningless second half Ws. Yes, it'd be borderline negligent for the Twins to pick up Morrison's option. He's been flat out awful apart from a few decent weeks in May. You don't slash .192/.289/.357 because you're "unlucky." The team won't have to look far to find an improvement over that. Grossman just doesn't serve a purpose on this team anymore. He only tenable attribute, getting on base, is no longer a strength. You're right, they have a handful of guys who should be replacing him.

I'm not advocating that they don't look to trade for talent. I'm saying the price they'll ultimately have to pay seems a bit high for only 2 years of said talent.

IMO the sticking point here is the price to be paid for a potential short term tenure. 1) Not all prospects are created equally. Yes, they’re volatile, but Kiriloff, Lewis, and/or Romero have a much better chance of becoming productive major league players than even a 3-4th round pick this year. These guys aren’t locks, no prospects are, but too often players with varied skill sets across all levels of the minors are all grouped together as lottery tickets. 2) The question isn’t whether the Twins should make the move because they’re uncertain of their ability to contend in the next two years. I agree that the time to contend is supposed to be now. The goal shouldn’t be pushing the window back. If we’re talking 2020 and beyond there’s a good chance most of the current core is gone, and we’re looking at once again moving the goalposts for being competitive. Teams can, and should, be building be collecting pieces leading up to, and during their window of contention. 3) Even though this team is supposed to be contending, and adding Realmuto certainly helps, there is a point where the price becomes too great. Like I said, if the Twins were able to work out an extension, or I believed they would be willing to win the bid for him in FA then I can stomach what they’d give up. If he’s only here for 2 years then making the move for him, especially given the situation with Buxton and Sano, seems like a bigger gamble than holding onto minor league talent.

I would wager that lesser touted arms are even more volatile, which is to say that not all prospects aren't created equally. A shutdown bullpen is nice, but you need a starting staff capable of getting you through a 162 game season + at least 5-6 innings per playoff appearance. We've seen firsthand how subpar starting rotations can drag a bullpen down.

The return won't be more than lottery tickets, but why at least take that chance? They honestly have nothing to lose by moving off guys on short term deals. There are plenty of relievers who frankly should be getting innings so I don't see a problem with trying to move Rodney or Duke. Belisle never should've been on the roster, so there's another spot. Is there really any point in continuing to feed ABs to Morrison or even Grossman? Buxton will be back up at some point and while I'm not a huge believer in Cave, he could certainly slide into the DH spot at that time. I'd take a bag of balls for Lynn and let Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia, and Slegers work through the rotation.

I think it's that last part that is all too often ignored.

High level arms are going to take this team further than an elite catcher. The Twins can get by with an average catcher and good to elite position players; they aren't going anywhere in the postseason without multiple high end arms. This organization has shown no desire to add those types of pitchers in FA so growing it is our only hope at the moment. That doesn't mean Romero or Graterol will be top of the rotation guys but right now they're the best shot this team has at building a rotation that won't be bounced in a divisional round matchup. The question is whether what you're giving up is worth potentially only 2 years of service.

A healthy GS leaves everybody with an almost 0% chance. There's always going to be a better team. The solution can't always be to gamble on the lottery and hope to time the ascension perfectly. Aside from giving up Towns, I'm open to nearly any move available to make room for Jimmy. If he doesn't want to stay, then they can move on to the decision of whether or not to trade him. Willingly letting a superstar walk, while banking on finding another in the lottery isn't any more appealing than dealing with GS or LA.

Giving up pitching like Romero or even Graterol kind of seems counter productive. I get that nothing is promised with Graterol, but this organization needs pitching help as much as they need a catcher so giving up either on top of Kiriloff might be a bit much for me. It really comes down to whether the Twins can, or in reality are willing, to extend or resign Realmuto. We're not going to like what they have to give up to get him. I can probably live with the price if they lock him up beyond 2020.

I mean exhaust every avenue in trying to find a way to get Butler, Towns, and Wiggins on the same page. When Jimmy was healthy last year this team was near the top of the West. They aren't as far from serious contention as that Houston series would have us believe. I agree, superstars are incredibly difficult to obtain, so I'm not sure why there's a rush to move on from one legitimate superstar (Butler), with Towns only a few steps behind. IMO the Wolves have at least 2 in the hand, so I'm not a huge fan of giving that up for the chance to draft another player of that caliber. Admittedly I'm not high on Wiggins; he's exhibit A as to why playing the lottery doesn't always work out in your favor. Maybe we have different definitions of mediocrity. With Bulter, Towns, and Wiggins all playing as expected, not necessarily hitting their ceiling, just playing at a level we know they're capable of, it isn't a stretch to say that the only teams objectively better than the Wolves in the West are GS and Houston. There's no such thing as perfect timing with these decisions. If the goal is to wait out GS and LA then what do you do with Utah and Denver? Both those teams are loading up on young talent. What if they're elite level teams by the end of that run? Do the Wolves continue to call it quits?

Agreed, the Wolves face an uphill battle in the West, but I don't think that necessarily means they should pack it in. Nobody in the league can touch GS. It's a bummer that their rise coincided with other teams in the conference ascending as well, but I'm not sure a prolonged tank is the answer. What happens if after that 4+ year period they still aren't favorites to make the conference finals? Continue tanking? If cap space or Butler's refusal to stay forces them to reassess that's one thing, but IMO they should be making every effort to mend the locker room situation and make things work before even talking about blowing the team up. If the organization wants a shake up, relieving Thibs of both roles would be a nice start. Just saying...

Given what we've seen I'd say there's a better chance the Twins are the one doing the dumping. Can they sell 19' draft picks yet?........

More than a little, but the team performance definitely hurt him. Brantley must be a popular guy amongst the players to be voted in outright.

I think we learned more about the Orioles than the Twins this series. I thought I knew what bad baseball looked like after watching the Twins. Baltimore just got swept in 4 games by a team that was 2-11 in their last 13 games coming into the series. Yuck.... Not that I think the outcome of this series or the next will change the Twins' plan for the deadline but hollow victories against two awful teams shouldn't change their stance.

I certainly have my disagreements with Molitor's decision making, but the heat he takes for poor fundamentals makes no sense to me either. Those are things players learn before the minor leagues, and they're reinforced on their way to the major league level. If players are called up without understanding how to throw to the correct base, bunt, run the bases, ect. then that's a developmental failure. It isn't unfair of Molitor to expect players that players have the ability to execute basic fundamental plays. I have a hard time pinning poor fundamentals squarely on the new FO because a lot of the roster spent their time in the minors under the old regime. There are a good number of players who have been coached in the minors under this new group, so the current FO gets a seat at the table too. You're right, they were given a lot of credit for Buxton's "turnaround," last season, and in general they received praise for the success the team had. I think I fall in the same camp as you; if the FO can soak up the success of last season, then they should be held responsible for the disaster that is this season. Saying that the FO can't share blame because Buxton, Sano, and Dozier aren't "their guys," is having your cake and eating it too. Personally, I didn't give them a ton of credit for last seasons run, because they didn't really do much of anything in the offseason, or during the season, to help the team. They ran through a string of awful waiver claims to patch a rotation together and they waffled back and forth at the trade deadline. They had their "observation," year so they got a pass for inactivity, and I can't really blame them for not immediately turning to FA to bolster a 100+ loss team during the first months of their tenure. The core of this team was intact when Falvey and Levine took over, so if I can't give them a ton of credit for the WC last year, I can't completely throw them under the bus for the results this season. That's the best case to be made for giving them another year or two. I think everybody acknowledges that the struggles of Buxton, Sano, and Dozier are the largest culprit for the way this season has gone. That doesn't absolve the FO from any blame, especially when their action/inaction has directly, and tangibly contributed to how awful this season has been. I like the last point you made, and I don't think it's really talked about. If the FO really didn't want Molitor after last season then why hand out the extension? I have a hard time believing that he gets another 3 years without the blessing of the PBO. IMO he's become kind of a scapegoat for some of the roster mismanagement of the FO.

I agree that at the core of the down season is the failure of Buxton and Sano. I'm not certain criticism outside that is "picking at the edges," though. Odorizzi and Lynn both had serious question marks when they came over, and we've seen why in each case. Odorizzi has quietly been worse than his 17' campaign that had people worried. Lynn's mission to prove that teams indeed can hand out a bad one year contract has gained much more attention. Morrison is a black hole. I was high on the Reed signing, but he's been awful. That's 2/3 of their FA "haul," that has played a significant role in this disaster of a season, and that's not counting Rodney's inability to actually close out games. The fact that Wilson, Petit, LaMarre, ect. made the roster is an indictment. Having an actual 4th OFer instead of a journeyman who got hot during ST would've been a good idea. If they were so down on Garver's ability to catch then why not add a serviceable major league catcher?

I haven't seen anybody blame the FO for Buxton, Sano, Dozier, ect. regressing, but they shouldn't get to contribute to the mess and then shrug off any blame for how this season has gone. Hughes had no business throwing any innings as a starting pitcher this year. None. He was cooked prior to last season. Haley and Kinley soaked up a valuable roster spot for a month before each doomed experiment mercifully ended. Pitching was, and continues to be, a need for this team; forcing bad/ill-equipped arms onto the roster is part of the problem.