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d-mac

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Everything posted by d-mac

  1. d-mac
    YES to all points here!
  2. d-mac
    I'm with you on this Brock. I wasn't expecting much, but I've been blown away by his performance and his nasty curve. That thing is legit. And he gets ground balls. That sets up a bit of dilemma for next year. With those bad contracts to Hughes, Nolasco, and now Santana, what do we do with these young starting pitchers? In a perfect world I'd roll with Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, and Milone. That's a cheap, young, and effective rotation. But we've got 3 below average aging vets on scholarship blocking them now.
  3. d-mac
    Hindsight is always 20/20. But you aren't wrong in that inflation is a consideration in the time value of money, but it's not the guiding principal of the concept. Opportunity Cost means that time is a resource. It's the question of "If I do X instead of Y, what do I give up by doing so?" People's time on on God's green earth is limited. So as a practical example- if I choose to go see a movie tonight at 6:30, I won't be able to watch the Twins game. The opportunity cost of going to the movie (beyond the financial cost of the ticket, popcorn and soda, and the gas I spent to drive there) is that I give up the opportunity to watch the Twins game. In financial terms that means that even after assuming zero inflation and zero interest rates, $1 today is always worth more than $1 tomorrow. I can exchange that dollar for goods and services sooner (and have more time to enjoy said good or service) than if I waited till tomorrow.
  4. d-mac
    If that's the case is why don't we see more good to elite players forgo pre-arb contracts in order to maximize their free agent earnings? Other than Scott Boras clients, that is. My thoughts are that: A.) 2019 dollars are may be only worth 80 cents in today's dollars. Intuitively most people understand that and don't have to be an economist or finance expert in order to do so. $30(.8)= $24. B.) Financial security and stability is strongly valued, especially so in such a high risk profession as professional athletics. And C.) Law of diminishing returns show up. $10 million is a lot of money to all of us, but the difference between $20 and $30 million is not that great. Even after taxes are removed, all a family's needs and wants that are satisfied at $30 million can be satisfied for $20. Taking these factors into account lead me to conclude, that given a choice between a big payday today or an even bigger payday in the future, even when accounting for inflated baseball salaries most people would choose the money today. Furthermore, the assumption that baseball salaries will continue to outpace inflation by a magnitude of 2 to 3 times means that team revenues must continue to grow at least an equivalent rate indefinitely. While certainly possible, if not likely, we logically know that is not a certainty.
  5. d-mac
    Time value of money has nothing to do with inflation. It's about opportunity cost. #Economisted
  6. d-mac
    Forgot about him. Ryan is definitely not that bad. Cherington may not be the best, but in my mind he's modern GM from outside the org with experience. I think that's a huge upgrade.
  7. d-mac
    Ryan never went on a full-rebuild because the front office somehow thought 2011 an aberration and that they could compete for short term mediocrity in '12 and '13. Instead it was sorta half-assed rebuild that lacked a unified goal or process other than draft better (high draft picks help with that) and keep butts in the seats at the same time. We still ended up losing a ton of games and failed to take every opportunity to amass young talent. Compare that to the Cubs and Astros. Relevant because they started their rebuilds around the same time and they whole-assed their rebuilds. They are significantly ahead of us in terms of young talent on the roster and I think that their outlooks have them contending for championships (that's the goal isn't it?). The Twins are merely going to be good-enough for the Al Central, yet again- an approach that resulted in a multitude of playoff losses in the past. That is my biggest beef with Ryan- not his years spent refusing to modernize this team- likely a major contributing factor that caused us to fall in this predicament in the first place- but his half-assed rebuild.
  8. d-mac
    Yes, please. Ryan is a god-awful GM. Anybody is an upgrade at this point. Except maybe Arizona's GM.
  9. d-mac
    Nick Blackburn? Or was he already in his arb years when he signed his deal,
  10. d-mac
    Time value of money. A dollar today is always worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
  11. d-mac
    Yes, and they still aren't good. Which is why I'm still skeptical of him going forward.
  12. d-mac
    A. He did that at a higher level, and B. he was doing that 29 years ago. To put that into perspective I'm expecting my first child in February and I wasn't even born in 1986. The game is completely different now, especially pitching.
  13. d-mac
    Agreed. At what point is he not raw? He wasn't as raw as some people make him out to be and this is his third year in pro ball. I'd like to give him and the Twins the benefit of the doubt, but at this point he's fighting history. And if he really hasn't been throwing his slider for two years, at what point will the kid-gloves come off? I have a hard time believing shelving a plus pitch for two years, and then suddenly picking it back up the pitch will still be plus. I can't imagine the shelf life of quality breaking pitches is too terribly long.
  14. d-mac
    Kiley basically nailed it. Stewart- as far as I'm concerned is a non-prospect at this point. It frankly doesn't matter how many ground balls he gets. What matters for success in the high minors and majors is strikeouts and limiting walks. Stewart has done neither so far. And when Kiley says, "when stuff downgrades, it doesn't come back," he means that if a pitcher can't miss bats in A-ball he's not going to suddenly learn how to miss bats at the next level. Let me put this in perspective- Kohl Stewart has a K/BB ratio so far this year in A+ of 1.66 and a K/9 of 5.1 in 110.2 innings. Nick Blackburn had a K/BB ratio of 3.30 in 131 innings in A+ and a K/9 of 5.2. Kohl Stewart is sub-Blackburnian. Food for thought.
  15. d-mac
    May is no longer a "legit starting candidate" at this point. He's a starting pitcher- elect. Just that the Twins are preventing him from being sworn in.
  16. d-mac
    Were you watching Buxton's first attempt at the majors? He was as overmatched Aaron Hicks his first go-around. To be perfectly honest, he needs more time in the high minors to learn some plate discipline and really should be in AAA the rest of the year.
  17. d-mac
    If our bullpen is bad (which it is) then why isn't May pitching more innings? 3-4 inning appearances means less for Bowyer, Duensing, and co.
  18. d-mac
    Gibson, May, and Berrios should be in the rotation next year. Full stop. This team needs its young core they've developed to be let off the leash finally so we can see what they can do. Trade Milone and dump Nolasco. That was easy, wasn't it? The Twins have painted themselves into a corner with 3 averag-ish major league starters (when healthy) getting paid free-agent rates, exactly the kind of thing I was worried about when they signed Santana. Not only is it expensive, but it makes the roster inflexible. May, Gibson, and Berrios can do what Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have done, but for a fraction of the cost and should they falter- they have options. The free-agent signings can't be optioned. And we all know Terry Ryan and the Twins' M.O., they aren't going to do what I suggested above, but instead we'll be stuck with 3 declining average to mediocre vets on scholarship.
  19. d-mac
    I would assume so, for that type of trade. Let's go get a legit catcher. I don't think Arcia has a place on this team long-term. Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Buxton are all much better fielders. Arcia fields as bad Elmon Young (Delmon without the D) and has yet to prove that he has enough plate discipline to stick in the majors. Maybe we can package him with Plouffe and Milone for something? Probably doesn't have a ton of value, but some team will probably take a chance on his power.
  20. d-mac
    ABW is, who he is. He's got no protection in the line-up and he's finally being exposed. The other hitters did just fine with Allen. Besides, isn't this his first year as AA hitting coach?
  21. d-mac
    One of these things is not like the other. http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100612053841/muppet/images/7/7e/Susanthesethings.jpg April: 10-12 May: 20-7 June: 11-17 July: 12-13 Aug: 1-2 Why is it cherry picking to remove the statistical outlier? They are -6 in run diff. The only thing that is keeping them in the hunt is their anomalous month of May. I think that this team is finally getting exposed as a paper tiger.
  22. d-mac
    No, just no.
  23. d-mac
    Unfortunately I've run out of likes for today. This certainly deserves two likes.
  24. d-mac
    Why wouldn't he? He's a lefty under team control. That means that the Jepsen trade will likely end up costing us three players, plus the $5million or so he is owed through the end of next season.
  25. d-mac
    Well you have to think there is a reason why the Rays would want Hu and Tapia back for Jepsen. They clearly value them. And I'd bet good money on the Rays scouts before I'd a penny down on the Twins scouting department.
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