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d-mac

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Everything posted by d-mac

  1. d-mac
    You did not just quote bleacherreport. I can't take you seriously. But in case you were wondering, McCutchen seasoned in the minors with over 550 PA's at AA and over 800 PA's at AAA before he made his debut in 2009, where he immediately started hitting in a crappy Pirates' line-up. Buxton has had a grand total of 271 PA's at AA and 59 at AAA. Not to mention McCutchen walked more and struck out less than Buxton in the minors.
  2. d-mac
    Here are Buxton and Gomez's numbers from their AA seasons: .283/.351/.489-19% K rate. .281/.350/.423- 20% K rate Which one is which? Gomez's first taste of the majors- 139 PA's .232/.288/.304- 19.4% K rate, 5.8% BB rate; 52 wRC+ For comparison Buxton had 138 PA's, hit .209/.250/.326- 31.4% K rate, 4.3% BB rate; wRC+ of 54 The comparison is extremely apt. Maybe the comparison to Gomez is inconvenient to your narrative?
  3. d-mac
    HOOOKAYYY. Buxton had one good game and now he's ready? He's hitting .200/.261/.300 with a 36% K rate against a bunch of AAAA players. In light of his spring and September stats, I'd say his bat is not ready for primetime yet. Just because he's a top prospect in baseball means jacks*** when his weakest tools are contact and pitch recognition. Such a significant portion of this team's success is tied to his success (not to mention all the $ they've spent on them) I'd hate to see the Twins throw it away by tossing him to the wolves before he's ready.
  4. d-mac
    Oh boy.
  5. d-mac
    I think what should happen is Buxton starts the year in AAA (he's looked as awful this spring as he did during his cup of coffee) and Sweeney, Arcia, and Santana make the team. Reevaluate in a month. I bet Santana doesn't make it to Memorial Day with the club.
  6. d-mac
    Basic economics, if tickets were too expensive based on the market, nobody would go to games. But the Twins still sell plenty, even with the crappy product on the field the past couple of years. It's supply and demand. Also, bear in mind moving from the Dome to Target Field cut seating capacity by roughly 16%. All things being equal, a 16% drop in supply would increase ticket prices by 16%. An accompanying increase in demand would "justify" a further increase in prices. I think Thrylos hit the nail on the head pretty well. With Target Field, the Twins are marketing themselves to the entertainment & experience crowd versus the hardcore fans like us, who'd watch them play ball anywhere- even if their home park was the Waste Management landfill.
  7. d-mac
    Less expensive mediocrity.
  8. d-mac
    He probably won't ever. What I know about Koreans is that they are extremely polite- it's a big deal in their culture. Because bat flipping is controversial here, he's probably going to shelve it.
  9. d-mac
    I don't think base stealing from occasional pinch running appearance to be all that valuable. Even if we are only talking about 200 PA's, I'd rather have someone with the track record of a .700 OPS hitter vs a .500 OPS hitter. Much more valuable 5-10 steals of second base. Not to mention if Sano is in right, wouldn't we want a defensive replacement for him late in the game?
  10. d-mac
    A. Yes, I think it is imperative for Buxton to get AAA reps. B. I also think Sweeney would be better than Santana, a converted infielder. I'd rather have Buxton skip AAA than have Santana starting on this team for any length of time.
  11. d-mac
    In what world is Mastroianni more valuable than Sweeney? He's a .212/.274/.289 career hitter. Sweeney's worst year (2014) he hit .251/.304/.338, the same year Mastroianni hit .116/.136/.186. Your comparing a replacement level player vs. someone with 8 career WAR. Sweeney's only 6 months older. Obviously, the caveat is that is he healthy? But if he is, what's not to like?
  12. d-mac
    And Buxton was a wRC+54 last year. Your point? Sweeney has a track record of being a solid player. If this team is going to be a contender in 2016 we can't tolerate sub .600 OPS players in the line-up. The risk of Buxton OPS'ing .550 in April and May is a lot higher than it would be for Sweeney.
  13. d-mac
    I know this won't be a popular opinion, but I'm ok with Rosario/Sweeney in LF/CF to start the year while Buxton's bat marinates in AAA. Yes, he was out of baseball last year, but Sweeney is a career .276/.333/.380 (wRC+ 94) career hitter. Plus he's been an above average defender in CF and plus defender in the corner over his career. He'll be a fine place holder for a few months, then when Buxton is ready, a great 4th outfielder and defensive replacement for Sano.
  14. d-mac
    Hicks was rushed. He was not ready. I don't know how any sane person that watched his first two seasons in the majors could come to any other conclusion.
  15. d-mac
    Rosario was a plus defender in LF. But Buxton? SSS, but fielding metrics say no. Nor is it a given that his bat will heat up.
  16. d-mac
    I still think Buxton is not ready for the majors, let me put this in perspective: Player A: .192/.259/.338; wRC+ 62; BB% 7.7; K% 26.8; UZR/150 -11.0; fWar -0.5 Player B: .209/.250/.326; wRC+ 54; BB% 4.3; K% 31.9; UZR/150 -8.4; fWar -0.6 Can you guess who is who? Player A was Aaron Hicks in his debut 2013 season, in which it is now universally agreed upon that he was rushed to the majors too soon. Player B was Buxton's 2015 debut, which I would argue was worse than Hicks' debut season. Buxton cost the Twins nearly as much as Hicks did, but in only 60% of the plate appearances. For those of you say his defense outweighs the liability with the bat, although small sample size, UZR disagrees with you. And for what it's worth, Hicks was a liability in the field in both 2013 and 2014. 2015 was the first year he actually didn't cost us runs in CF. I'd be very wary of throwing Buxton to the sharks before he's ready. Ultimately, it could be a detriment to his development and stunt his bat.
  17. d-mac
    LOL. I know I shouldn't laugh at other people's mistakes and the misfortune of the poor valet for being in the same place at the same time as Delmon Young. But it's too hard not to laugh about this.
  18. d-mac
    This isn't the Strib comment section.
  19. d-mac
    I have no idea what DRA is, since I don't follow BP much, but I don't have a ton of confidence in something that differs from xFIP and SEIRA by that much. But I don't think Hughes, Santana, or Gibson are as good as you think they are. Let's do some comparisons: xFIP SEIRA* Santana: Career: 4.18 4.11 2015: 4.42 4.43 Gibson: Career: 4.07 4.22 2015: 3.95 4.12 Milone: Career: 4.22 4.23 2015: 4.22 4.39 Duffey: 2015: 3.64 3.83 Hughes: Career: 4.17 3.95 2015: 4.31 4.39 May: Career: 4.09 3.72 2015: 3.96 3.53 *Fangraphs doesn't have splits for SEIRA, so they are not adjusted for starter/reliever.
  20. d-mac
    I like this pick up. He has rated as an above average defender at all 3 outfield positions according to fangraphs, plus a career wRC+ or 94 is not bad for a CF with plus defense. I am not confident at all with Buxton as our starting CF out of spring training- he was woefully overmatched last year in his small sample size look. Roll with Sweeny as our starting CF out of spring training so Buxton can get two months worth of AAA PA's would probably be ideal. Sweeny would give us a very quality bench and 4th outfielder option.
  21. d-mac
    I think you are really digging too deeply into splits- every pitcher is going to be worse with runners on, and moreso for starters than relievers. But I'll indulge you. We really aren't comparing May to the general MLB population, are we? We are discussing whether or not he belongs in the Twins rotation. If I had to guess, that isn't exactly a Twins' pitch to contact (i.e.,try to induce double plays avoid walks and passed balls/wild pitches) philosophy. So I would expect to see other pitchers the Twins developed with the same problem and also the players the Twins brought in to have that gap expand after they've been indoctrinated.
  22. d-mac
    You possibly could be right and he was injured. But I still think a career ERA of 4.46 and xFIP of 4.17 as a starter is worse than what May could do. Hughes (nor Santana for that matter) has never been a shining example throughout his career.
  23. d-mac
    What issues exactly? All I see are 775 innings of a solid K/9 being maintained through all levels of the minors and a questionable walk rate. Then in 2014 it appears he has made an adjustment and significantly cut down his walk rate in AAA and then carried it over to the majors this year. You completely dismiss the possibility out-of-hand that he maybe, possibly, made an adjustment?
  24. d-mac
    You seriously did not just compare Davis to May. Davis had 3.5x more starts as May in the majors and an ERA of 4.57 and xFIP of 4.50. May>>>>>>>>> Davis.
  25. d-mac
    Upside? You said it yourself, "...entering his age 30 season." Decline in fastball velo. Check. Decline in strike out rate. Check. Spike in contact rate. Check. Career high in HR/FB. Check. He's trending the wrong way, Brock. He's got a career 4.34/4.06/4.10 (ERA/FIP/xFIP). Last year, 4.40/4.70/4.31- that looks a lot more like 2011, 2012, and 2013 with the Yankees. He's throwing more strikes and a lower velocity than ever before and with a lack of a third pitch is not a good combination.
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