d-mac
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Everything posted by d-mac
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#FreeTaylor
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Their drafting/scouting department and their player development/coaching philosophies are on two different wavelengths. They need to get on the same page and have a unified strategy, otherwise they are going nowhere fast. Maybe they need to make some personnel changes in the minors. The hitters come up with 0 plate discipline and no pitch recognition and the power arm binge is all for naught as we are stuck with the same low-strikeout pitchers in the majors that are laughable out of date.
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I just think we agree on most things.
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I think it's pretty damning of the Twins drafting and player development of pitching the last few years. They draft (and trade, you could probably count Meyer, too) all of these power arms both starters and bullpen arms. But their player development side (especially for the relievers that were highly drafted and had success at high levels in college) try to turn them all in to strike throwers and revamp their mechanics, maybe they think they can limit injuries this way (a spectacular fail there), I don't know. The result is that none of them have made the majors or even been able to have success above high-A ball or even stay healthy.
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Like Nick says above, why?
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We don't know that, now do we? It was never tried. Again, I don't know how much more I could possibly stress that the draft time scouting reports said he was "nearly major league ready." To me that means refine command and be up within a year. Turns out that was not the case. Either he is 1. injured, 2. the changes the Twins made were wrong, or 3. the scouts were wrong about him. There are only 3 options. Which one is it? The second part was also our plan, but just starting out at a higher level- that is the only difference between our plan's first year.
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Molitor Hints At Six-Man Rotation
d-mac replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While, I'd prefer the Twins to send Pelfrey to the bullpen when Santana comes back, I think it's great that the Twins are thinking outside the box here. We'll just to have to see how it goes, if they decide to go this direction. Of course, each pitcher will likely react differently and... we shall see. -
Twins Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Month - June 2015
d-mac replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's that time of the month already? I always enjoy these summaries on our top performers, Seth! Keep up the good work! There absolutely is no reason why the entire top 5 shouldn't already be at the next level up, other than maybe Muren with his recent promotion to AA. -
I think your missing his point. He's saying that by starting him at A+ last year and then promoting him to AA would have exposed these issues sooner, and they could have been addressed in the off season and during spring training. By exposing them this year, they are wasting valuable development time and bullets in that arm. Going to A ball was a complete waste of time. He was sold to us as being nearly major league ready- he is exactly the kind of pitcher they should be aggressive with from day one.
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And in fairness I hate drafting college relievers in the top 5 or 6 rounds, so I'm going to use every available bit of ammunition I can find to complain about it. I think it's dumb, a fool's errand to to try to turn arms that couldn't cut it as a starter as an amateur and try to turn them into a major league pitcher with all the same risks of injury that a starter has. Individual bullpen arms are fairly fungible. You can find them just about anywhere. Failed starters- Most of the greatest Twins' bullpen arms in recent memory were failed starters- Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins- and I think Pelfrey could be a great power arm in the pen, and Taylor Rogers could have a long career as a killer LOOGY. You can sign them to minor league deals- both Casey Fien and Jared Burton were minor league deals. Rule 5- Pressly looks to be a solid arm going forward and I see the same potential in Graham. So, drafting relievers should be a mid-round thing. Find a reliever with a big fastball or a killer breaking ball, sign him for $100k and see if he can cut it. Not a lot of risk there. But wasting big money on college relievers- not to mention the opportunity cost of forgoing hitters and starters in the early rounds of the draft makes it a no-win situation. Still a lot of risk with the little upside value a single bullpen arm provides over a career makes the cost-benefit analysis look bad.
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He has? I wasn't aware he admits his mistakes.
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Twins Sign Dominican SS Wander Javier
d-mac replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with both of you guys here. They put all of their 4 million proverbial eggs in one basket. It's really hard to predict what a 16 year old from a third world country is going to turn into. I'm sure the Twins are convinced that this is a can't miss prospect, but I'd prefer if they had spent it on 4 $1 million dollar kids. I think the odds of getting a productive major leaguer are better that way. And if they are going to go over- just do it and spend money like drunken sailors. No need to pussyfoot around. Sign as many top guys in a year as they can. -
And so you have insider knowledge? Last time I checked you aren't Seth or Jeremy.
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Well, then they should never have drafted him. He was touted as "quick to the majors" and nearly major league ready bullpen arm with big velocity. If they needed to tinker with him in order for him to have success in the majors and the only way to do so lowered his velo and ruined his control then I don't know how anyone can view that draft pick as anything but a failure. And if this isn't an indictment on the strategy of drafting college relievers, then I don't know what is.
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I think that's a bit of over-simplification. I think they tend to be waaaaayyyy too aggressive when promoting hitters from AA to AAA to the majors, or in many cases straight to the majors from AA. Conversely, I think the ARE too conservative when I comes to promoting pitchers. I also think they move players up too slowly through the low minors (Rookie ball through the Midwest League) and that is even more the case with college players.
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- miguel sano
- kennys vargas
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The people who made that mistake are still in charge now. That's why this is relevant. Also, unicorns aren't real.
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It's not that Vargas was ever much of a prospect. His best defensive position has always been DH, he was old for each of the minor league levels, IIRC, and never showed much game power.
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Think of all those roster moves that would have to be made though! So much work.
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14 man staff. It's the new thing. MOAR PITCHERS!
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It's probably the roster move that doesn't strain too many of Terry Ryan's brain cells. Because sending Vargas to AAA, sending a AAA player to AA and calling up Sano involves too much thinking. I mean the only other, but not very logical reason would be to send Vargas a message. I don't what that would be, he doesn't seem like the kind that goofs off, he just can't hit major league pitching.
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Hughes's xFIP is identical to his ERA, which is a bit misleading because it assumes a major league average HR/FB rate, which in Hughes' case may not hold up. SIERRA does not and that says 4.21. So I'd say even at best. His K% is down big compared to last year. Nolasco isn't healthy and may need surgery so I wasn't considering him. And we'd have to be banking on Santana replacing Pelfrey or Milone, which we would both agree would be the right decision, but based off the Twins' media it sounds like they were hinting at Santana replacing May in the rotation yesterday. Which is apparently because the Twins are so outdated when it comes to pitching decisions that they base it off of ERA and seniority. Furthermore, we have to hope we get good Santana, and not bad Santana. He's a career 4.17 ERA pitcher that every three years throws up a 5 spot in the ERA column. And we have to assume his elbow stays intact, which was likely the reason why he was on PED's in the first place. He's literally like the only person to ever successfully return from a UCL tear with only rest and rehab.
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Fuld was cheap. And he was worth 2.9 fWAR last season, and 13.7 runs above average defensively and 4.3 runs above average on the basepaths. Career 5.3 fWAR and a career 20.9 runs above replacement defensively. Pelfrey is not cheap. My point whether or not you perceive Fuld or Pelfrey to return greater value is moot when you consider the financial cost. Baseball is still a business, last time I checked. Butera and Fuld didn't make significantly more than major league minimum when they were traded. Pelfrey is getting paid $5.5 mil/yr to be a replacement level pitcher. Why give up something in a trade AND pay his salary? It makes no logical sense.
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They've certainly improved. But I'd hardly call a 13th best ERA and the 22nd best xFIP solid. That's with the worst K/9 rate, yet again in the majors and having the 6th highest LOB% and 13th highest BABIP resulting in the 7th highest WHIP. We better hope that Santana comes in and pitches well and TR and Co. make the correct choice in moving Pelfrey to the pen, because there's only downside here.
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Fuld had some value as a speedy 4th outfielder and a plus defender. Butera was perceived to have plus defensive value before (most, i.e. not the Twins) realized that pitch framing is really the only catcher defense matters. Pelfrey is a replacement level starter. Most teams have a AAA starter they can insert for a fraction of the cost. No value.
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In today's run scoring environment, a 4.50 ERA is essentially replacement level- i.e., terrible. The Twins' pitching has been so horrible the past few seasons, to the point where as fans, we haven't been able to experience the rapid increase in quality pitching that the rest of baseball has seen. In other words- us Twins fans have no idea what a good starting pitcher looks like in today's game.
