d-mac

Or it's a symptom of an organizational problem with coaching/development.

Do you, like, believe in anything?

Interesting that there are exactly 4 relievers with more than one meltdown so far this year. The Twins have two of them.

I like Harrison's walk rate. Always have. Hopefully he'll put it together sooner, rather than later.

So we have a GM with logical reasoning capacity and emotional maturity of a 4 year old? That's redic... Wait, no. That explains a lot actually.

Because our line-up needs more K's.

I'd hardly call 27 young for a SS. 26-29 is physical prime for a position player. Middle infielders and CF's fall off sooner defensively and speed-wise.

Probably because you'd do a better job of assembling the team and making better roster decisions than Ryan. I feel like most of us could.

Free up at 40 man so Mastro can play in CF while Buxton gets a half a season in AAA.

Twins, throwing young players under the bus for as long as I can remember.

I feel like making a ton of movement with the roster at this point is likely just shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic, IMO. I would send down Buxton, possibly Rosario, bring up Mastro to handle CF and get Kepler in left. Buxton and Rosario need more time in AAA to see AAAA junk ballers for a few months and learn some better pitch recognition and plate discipline.

Thanks! I was originally going post it in a forum, but when it got long-winded and a bit rant-y I figured i post it as a blog. Like you, I also haven't come to the conclusion he should be gone based on these past seven games. Where I'd disagree is that TR needed to stabilize things after Smith. In my opinion, it is impossible to separate the Bill Smith era from the Terry Ryan era. When Terry "stepped down" he was still a senior advisor to Bill Smith. Then, when things went south, he took over for Smith. Smith, instead of being fired, was just reassigned inside the organization. In hindsight it just appears that Smith was only promoted to take the blame of "negotiating" a contract with Hunter and trade Santana.

I just vomited a little bit in my mouth. The FO is never going to be cleaned out if that's the case. Fans are just going to leave in droves and never come back if that's their cavalier attitude to success.

Dear God. If that's true, this team will never sniff the playoffs again. How can you motivate your employees with only carrot, and never a threat of the stick?

As I had mentioned in my post, I just can't see how they can justify keep TR around on a business decision level. He's spent so much of the Pohlad's money, and has very little by the way of results to show for it. The only explanation is that it's a hobby and they don't really care about making money or winning. Or that they are just such poor business people and couldn't make a profit running a hot dog stand.

I agree about waiting until the offseason to fire TR, unless they have somebody from OUTSIDE THE ORGANIZATION ready to come in. If they replace TR with Antony I will boycott the Twins. They wouldn't deserve my money or my eyeballs. The state of the bullpen is 100% TR's fault, not the coaches. He's done just an absolute crap job at assembling it. And I agree on the starting pitching. I'm more than satisfied with the job Neil Allen has done.

As much as I supported getting rid of Gardenhire, it was hard to blame him for the poor seasons. No manager could have won with that line-up. With Molitor we have/had the expectation of contention this year. Instead the team comes out playing like a dumpster fire (not even good enough to be compared to hot garbage) and a number of their young players that should be progressing, have taken a step back... a BIG step back. Is the manager to blame for that? Probably at least some of the blame. Bruno should be given two weeks to turn the offense around. No improvement by then, replace him with Chad Allen. If the team doesn't turn around and is on track to lose 90+ games at the All-Star break, then absolutely you have to make a change by dumping Molitor. I mean the team has to at least show fans that they are committed to winning and aren't satisfied with poor performance after 5 seasons of "rebuild" (not really a rebuild), when they should start to be winning.

I liked your post because you mentioned my blog! I agree with a few things, however I think you vastly overestimate Ryan's successes. He has been the "official" GM for 17 full seasons, and had a whopping 7 winning seasons, 4 playoff teams, and 1 single post season series win at the helm. All of them came when the AL Central was historically weak. For Godsakes, the Tigers lost over 110 games on multiple occaisions. An average GM should at least win close to half the time. He's only had winning seasons ~40% of the time. Even if I grant you the caveat that during his first stint the team had severe financial limitations, it's delusional to even entertain the idea he's anything more than an average GM, and thus there should be no reason for ownership to have kept him around this long. But the Twins do have the resources of a median team now. He's spent an awful lot of the Pohlad's money to loose a lot of games in his second stint. I believe he spent more $ per win than any GM (I.e., least effecient) from 2011-2014. I just don't understand how that even makes since from a business perspective.

Actually, 0 teams have. But that just makes your point stronger.

How do we not know that it's just age related? He's 33. Fastball velocity is one of the first things to go. That's usually a death knell to a reliever that usually only has one or two quality pitches. Let's put it into perspective: There are 13 pitchers in the majors that saved over 100 games between 2012 and 2015. Only 4 were older than Perkins (Rodney, Papelbon, Soriano, and Nathan.) Of those four, just one, Papelbon, is still a closer, but he pitches on one of the worst teams in baseball and the closest in age to Perkins. Soriano is retired, Nathan's career is effectively over and Rodney has been demoted to set-up man. Comparing him to Papelbon, you'll see that he also had a fairly significant drop in FB velocity between his age 30 and 33 seasons. And other than Perkins only 3 (Chapman, Jansen, and Holland) pitched on the same team all four seasons. I'm not saying Perkins is done, but at this point that's a fairly safe bet.

At what point do changes with the FO/coaching staff get made? How much patience should we have with the status quo? This is a team that was expected to improve and contend this year. As a self admitted pessimist I always have low expectations, but this team has underperformed even my wildest nightmares. Obviously, this team will not lose every game and will improve, sample sizes are fairly small yet and won't continue to be sub-Buterean with RISP, but if this team continues on it's current trajectory should changes be made and if so, when? 1.) If this team is still leading baseball in K% come early May, Bruno needs to go, IMO. None of the young hitters have learned anything resembling plate discipline and many of them have regressed. None of them had issues with plate discipline in the minors (Sano's strikeouts notwithstanding). The evidence is pretty damning, IMO. And I was a big supporter of Bruno after what he did with Dozier. But even Dozier is looking like he has regressed in terms of plate discipline the past two seasons. 2.) Molitor is starting to look like a bad choice as a manager. Batting Rosario and Santana second are indefensible decisions. Not playing Arcia at all until the 5th game is indefensible. Sac bunting early in games is indefensible. And the running game is something else. He has been uber aggressive with base stealing, but this team as a whole is so poor at base running it's costing this team runs, which is a trend that carried over from last year. And it's not that this team is slow, there is plenty of speed on the roster, the runners are just very unskilled. I prefered both Dougie M and the bench coach from the Red Sox org they interviewed over Molitor. But I was fine with the hire and approached it with an open mind, but I think it's fairly obvious at this point that Molitor was not the right man for the job. 3.) And of course everybody here knows my thoughts on Terry Ryan. I've been calling for him to be canned for several years now. I had always thought was not the right to guide the team through a rebuild- the last time he rebuilt the Twins, it took almost a full decade, not to mention he's a complete idea dinosaur when compared to most GM's today. Needless to say, I've been highly critical with how he's handled the rebuild. I felt it's been half-a**ed a bit. He never fully committed to tearing down the obviously bad teams in the early part of this decade. He had many chances to sell high and trade away established/veteran players and acquire more young talent, but instead chose to save face with the fans after he promised in the media to contend every year (even though nobody believed it). Both Willingham in 2012 and Suzuki in 2014 should have been traded at the deadline for anything that could have been had. Based on their ages, their values could not and would not ever have been higher. Predictably, the aging Willingham couldn't stay on the field the next two years before retiring and Suzuki has regressed and aged into being one of the worst starting catchers in baseball. Not to mention Perkins never being shopped was also indefensible. That was the lowest of low-hanging trade-able fruit: an all-star closer in his prime on a team that was losing 90 games a year. Predictably, when the team is expecting to contend the aging Perkins, due to decreasing fastball velocity is all but washed up. Not only did Ryan do a disservice to the Twins by not trading Perkins for young talent, but did a disservice to Perkins himself by wasting the prime of his career on crummy teams with no shot at winning. INDEFENSIBLE. Resigning players after career seasons has also been a pretty indefensible. After failing to trade Suzuki at the deadline in 2014, he was EXTENDED for two years (with a vesting option for 3, WHY?) after having a career year at age 30 as a catcher which had followed two seasons of terrible offense. While, the extension of Suzuki was indefensible, I have to admit the original signing of Suzuki going into 2014 on a one year deal after Mauer had moved out behind the plate (should have been done way sooner, but I won't go there) was fairly astute. In 2013 Suzuki cut down his K% from the previous year and saw a significant jump in line-drive %, yet saw one of his worst BABIP seasons of his career. But compounding the lack of selling after his hot start was the extension. That shows a clear lack of understanding of aging curves for catchers, BABIP, and the principle of buy low/ sell high. Another astute signing that was ruined by extension after a career season was Phil Hughes. Hughes was a great value signing- a flyball pitcher with a good K/BB rate that was being penalized by an extreme hitters' park in a division filled with hitters' parks. He was signed to a team-friendly three years, $24m. Hughes was a solid #3 signed to a reasonable contract through his prime. But after a career year, where he pitched like a high-end #2 starter, he was extended for 3 additional years at $58m and included paying him $1.2m more for years he was already under contract. WHAT?! WHY?! Terry must have been drunk, that's the only explanation. Pitchers are fickle, they get injured or become ineffective for no reason. In Hughes' case he's an extreme fastball pitcher that relies on velocity, fastball command, a deceptive short-arm delivery, and lacks a quality third pitch. As predictable as the sun rising in the morning are pitcher injuries, and sure enough, Hughes got injured this past year, his fastball velocity was sapped, and because of his lack of a third pitch has turned into a pumpkin. This shows a lack of understanding basic awareness of pitcher injuries, how age affects fastball velocity (research shows average fastball velo maxes out between age 24-26 seasons, Hughes will be turning 30 this season), and lack of the buy low/ sell high (bought low, but bought again really, really high). Ryan has filled the rotation with middling free-agent 3/4 types that have pushed more talented (i.e., higher upside) and less expensive pitchers to the pen (May) or left them in AAA (Berrios). You'd think with a strike-out challenged, potential limited starting rotation he would have assembled a lock-down bullpen. Guess again. Outside of Perkins this bullpen is and has also been strike-out challenged and filled with minor league free-agents and rule 5 selections. The one time he goes outside the org (Jepsen), he traded for a reliever at the deadline, when relievers are the most expensive as contending teams get panicky about their pens. After telling the public that the pen was the top priority, signed a couple of minor league free-agents and filled it with a talented, young starter misallocated to the bullpen. Ryan and the Twins appear to be all in on the fireballing college relievers they've drafted (not going to touch the ridiculousness of drafting college relievers in the top few rounds) the previous few years. None of them have debuted with the team yet. Typically, teams that draft top college relievers and push them to the majors by the following season, because the value that top college relievers provide are a quick turnaround time to the majors. Remember, pitchers get hurt, and peak velocity occurs between ages 24-26. None of the fireballing relievers have pitched above AA. Some have had TJ surgery, and the older relievers are already using their peak velocity innings in the minors. Finally, the Ryan FO has married itself and the short and long-term success to the risky strategy of depending 100% internally drafted, signed, and developed prospects. What happens if a few of the prospects end up being busts when all is said and done? Trading for areas of need, whether it be prospect for major leaguer, major leaguer for prospect, or prospect for prospect, has to this point almost entirely been eschewed. Trading Hicks for Murphy was a good start, but indefensibly Suzuki is still starting over Murphy. Forcing Buxton into the majors before he is ready (detrimental to the team and his long-term development), with a real lack of alternative options is pretty indefensible. It's maddeningly obvious he's overmatched and they are repeating the same mistakes they made with Hicks. Plus, forcing Sano into a position he's never played before while he's still trying to establish himself in the majors is so incredibly short sighted. Plouffe is not the future, Sano is. And now if by some miracle everything goes according to plan, then Kepler is blocked. Bottom line: this team is walking a tightrope based on Ryan's strategy, a lot will have to go right for this team to be a perennial contender. TL;DR Version: After ranting for a bit about Bruno, Molitor, and a lengthy rant about Terry Ryan, what say you Twins Daily? If the current trend of this team continues, what changes do you think will likely happen, or what do you think should happen? And when? What would you do? If you don't think any changes should happen, then why? Do we or should we fire Bruno if the Strikeouts and lack of progression for the young hitters continue? How soon? Do we replace Molitor at some point or give him more leash if this team tanks? If I were the owner, I'd obviously clean house in the FO immediately. But if the rebuild fizzles and the Twins never seriously contend in the next few years, do you think Pohlad finally sweeps out the Old Boy Club in the front office?

When you lead baseball in strikeout rate... and by a fairly significant margin, 23rd in ISO, and 18th in walk rate, you're not going to score a lot of runs. Obviously things will get better, we are not going to lose every game and the sample sizes are still fairly small, so weird splits happen. But this offense looks like it's going to be bad this year, unless this entire team has a radical adjustment at the plate. This team is also 8th in BABIP (.320 right now, league average is generally .297-.299). That won't hold up either. So where do we expect the adjustment to come from? A team with a bunch of singles hitters, that walks at a below average rate CANNOT lead baseball in strikeout rate and expect to compete for a playoff spot.

Hi there Reusse!

Sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought we had moved from talking about career splits to their full 2015 season stats. Either way, Nunez has slightly better career splits against LHP than Suzuki, not much of a difference, I'll give you that. But based on age I think that going forward Nunez has significant enough of chance to out-hit Suzuki vs LHP. And if you are going to bring in Nunez to run for Suzuki, then why not just let him hit for Suzuki.