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d-mac

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Everything posted by d-mac

  1. d-mac
    I'd hardly call him a constant, consistent, or any of those adjectives. in his 12 year major league career he has had an ERA- of 109 (x2), 114, 128, and 133. Also 86, 81, and 80. The other four years have been 95-99. He's had some pretty decent years and a couple of disasters. His performance has been incredibly inconsistent in his career.
  2. d-mac
    That alone should be a fireable offense. Anybody could look up their fangraph pages and make the correct call.
  3. d-mac
    I don't think Santana is as good as people are giving him credit on TD for. Of the Twins pitchers he had the second lowest BABIP (after Milone) last year. He had a xFIP and SIERA of 4.42 and 4.43, that's Mike Pelfrey level! He was super lucky to have a 4.00 ERA last year. This year he's got xFIP of 4.23 and SIERA of 4.39 and career high walk rate leading to an awful 2:1 K:BB ratio.
  4. d-mac
    For those that think May was a terrible, washed, up, no-future starter at 25- I've got some stats. And no, they don't support your opinions. All pitchers that started more than two games in 2015 for the Twins (Sorry, J.R. Graham). Numbers as starters: Duffey: 10 GS, 58 IP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.83 SIERA Gibson: 32 GS, 194.2 IP, 3.95 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA May: 16GS, 83.1 IP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.86 SIERA Nolasco: 8GS. 35.1 IP, 4.21 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA Milone: 23 GS, 127.2 IP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA Hughes: 25 GS, 152.1 IP, 4.30 xFIP, 4.39 Santana: 17 GS, 108 IP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA Pelfrey: 30 GS, 164.2 IP, 4.45 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA So May was #3 in xFIP and #2 in SIERA (like xFIP, but it adjusts for batted ball type) last year. He was our second best starter last year. Also, what the hell were we paying Pelfrey for?
  5. d-mac
    It's so logical that my brain hurts trying to understand any counter argument.
  6. d-mac
    You want to talk about walks? As a starter in 2015 May's walk rate, 5%, was only second to Hughes' 2.5% on the team.
  7. d-mac
    I prefer this response: https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/378800000697945639/a7eeae038851851a2b0507cca1917b04.jpeg
  8. d-mac
    http://rs738.pbsrc.com/albums/xx24/CityFolkAlbum/Reactions/badumtss.jpg~c200
  9. d-mac
    What's the difference? They're on pace to lose over 110 games.
  10. d-mac
    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
  11. d-mac
    I'm not about to put Buxton in the leadoff spot until he proves at the major league level that he can get on base at a consistent rate. If his power develops and he still K's at a high rate, he may be a better fit in the middle of the order. Polanco on the other hand, really hasn't had the same contact and strikeout issues that Buxton has- and has considerably less power. As far as the #3 hitter goes, contrary to traditional baseball sensibilities it is statistically the least important spot in the first 6 spots in the lineup. The #3 spot is more likely to come up with 2 outs and least likely to lead off an inning than any other spot. Since Mauer doesn't hit for a ton of power, yet has one of the top OBP rates in the game, that makes him the least ideal hitter on this roster for the #3 spot. Conversely, the #2 spot has the highest correlation to run production in the first 6 spots. Putting your best OBP hitter there makes sense. And you're correct, based on Kepler's minor league track record, he may be an ideal candidate to eventually replace Mauer in the line-up, just in the #2 spot, not the #3 spot. As far as Dozier goes, he's had 499 plate appearances since July 1st, 2015. He has hit .210/.283/.369 in those plate appearances. He's been a replacement level player over that time. So he is the definition of replaceable. He'll also be turning 30 in 2017.
  12. d-mac
    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
  13. d-mac
    Heh, Randy Bush, hehehe. Apparently I'm 12 years old.
  14. d-mac
    We need to be patient and let Buxton, Kepler, and co get their AAA time in this year. But by Opening day next year I'd like to see: 1. Polanco- 2B 2. Mauer- 1B/DH 3. Arcia- RF(vs L Park) 4. Sano- 3B 5. Park- DH/1B (Arcia vs L) 6. Kepler- LF 7. Cervelli- or- Ramos- or -Saltalmacchia -C (I'd go after a FA catcher next year) 8. Escobar- SS 9. Buxton- CF Bench- C- (one of Murphy/Centeno/Turner/Garver) IF- Beresford OF- Rosario Misc BE- ?? Rotation- Santana Duffey Berrios May Meyer/Gibson Pen- Pressly Tonkin Abad Hughes Rogers (LOOGY) Chargois (CL) Burdi (SU)
  15. d-mac
    Career FIP minus is a better comparison. Gibson FIP- 104 Blackburn FIP- 115 Ervin Sanatana FIP- 104 Gibson has an elite groundball rate- Blackburn had a league average GB rate. Gibson's K% is 33% higher than Blackburns. Not to mention Gibson's slider had one of the highest swinging strike rate last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unusually-compelling-kyle-gibson-just-a-tweak-away/ Blackburn was a bad pitcher. Gibson may be an enigma inside a paradox, but he has the stuff to be a #2 or 3 starter.
  16. d-mac
    Melanoma
  17. d-mac
    He could also be traded too, teams are always looking to add bats.
  18. d-mac
    I think there are plenty of good catchers that'll be appropriate at 56. Okey, Rorvedt, Murphy, Cumberland. I personally don't like all glove, no hit catchers (pitch framing and selection are really the only traits that matter to me as a catcher), so I'd avoid Johnson and Rogers.
  19. d-mac
    Where the Twins are picking this year, I'd prefer to go with a college bat in the 1st round. Maybe bank some money- then throw a bunch of cash at high upside HS players with their next 4 picks. It'd be hard for me not to pick Will Craig (Dude can hit AND can draw a walk, figure out his position later) at 15. Go with Rortvedt at 56, if he's there or Gavin Lux. Then HS arms after that. I'd stay away from college pitching like the plague this year.
  20. d-mac
    This. 1000x this. At this point cleaning house and going outside for new perspective become the best business decision. The good 'ol boys club is so inefficient (i.e., lack of winning relative to the budget) I just don't understand how ownership can justify keeping it intact. Also, have you seen how empty the stadium is? Management's underperformance has to be hurting ownership's profit margin at this point, not to mention they've probably missed out on the era of the mega-huge tv deals other teams have gotten. The Twins are simply not putting a product on the field that consumers want to buy and are doing so at a high cost. Then again, it shouldn't be surprising that Jim Pohlad is a terrible businessman. He just inherited the company from good 'ol pops who made his fortune as a crony capitalist by buying distressed assets during the depression, rent seeking, and later acquiring other existing companies and getting sweet deals from politicians. He didn't create any value by producing or improving upon a good or service that consumers demanded.
  21. d-mac
    The Twins can talk about wanting "power pitchers" 'till they're blue in the face. But until they get over their organizational fear of walks nothing will ever change. I would gladly trade a few extra walks for more K's and fewer extra base hits. Hard contact and extra base hits are more damaging than walks. Why else would the homerun multiplier in the FIP formula be 13 and the BB multiplier only 3?
  22. d-mac
    But...but... I like Vanimal!
  23. d-mac
    The roster would be a total "camel."
  24. d-mac
    We tend to agree on most things. It's ok to have a friendly disagreement from time to time.
  25. d-mac
    Hey, post-deadline waiver trades are a great place to pick up average to mediocre relievers, because they can usually picked up for a bag of balls. Which, is probably what Jepsen would have gone for in August or the offseason. If TD told Terry Ryan to jump off a bridge, should he do it? Wait... don't answer that. Most of the time I think many of us here at TD would do a better job as a GM than Ryan, however, making a deadline move just to appease a fan during a season that turned out to be a mirage is not a good idea.
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