Ted Schwerzler

Baseball fans, you've made it. At this point in the winter, the offseason is nearing its conclusion, and you are about to be rewarded with the month long grind that is spring training. For the Minnesota Twins, a team coming off of a breakout season a year ago, there's some key steps to be taken in the month ahead however.
 
As pitchers and catchers embark on sunny Fort Myers, the Twins will soon be in full swing over at the CenturyLink Sports Complex. Now in his second season as manager, Paul Molitor will have a few narratives he needs to force playing out. Should Terry Ryan's relative inactivity this offseason fail to hurt the Twins, it will be because of the internal scenarios making the best of themselves.
 
Here are the key areas of focus for the Twins as they build towards their return to Target Field.
 
Cement for the pen
A season ago, you'd have been hard pressed to find a bigger problem area for Molitor's club than in the relief arms it employed. Going into 2016, the only guarantees in the pen are Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen. From there, the expectation would be that Trevor May and Casey Fien are included in the group. Fernando Abad is the likely lefty, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Ricky Nolasco probably figures into the situation as well. When camp breaks, Minnesota absolutely must have answers in relief.
 
Sano falls smoothly in right
 
Terry Ryan was hesitant to trade Trevor Plouffe, and for good reason. Minnesota held onto their third basemen, and that forced Miguel Sano to find another way into the field. Bringing Byung Ho Park into the fold, just bringing a bat to the park was a thing of the past for the Twins slugger. Now expected to take over for Torii Hunter in right field, Sano needs to make it work. A good athlete, and less than large defensive shoes to fill, Sano could very well succeed in his new role. Down in fort Myers, the Dominican native will need to do everything he can to push himself and get the stumbles out of the way prior to games counting.
 
Have bat, will travel for Byron Buxton
 
The Twins uber prospect Byron Buxton made his big league debut in 2015, and it was anything but ideal. His defensive prowess showed immediately, but his offensive game left Twins brass hoping for mediocrity. In his second big league season, Buxton will need to flash the offensive tools he's displayed on the farm. During spring training, Buxton will need to put balls in play, get on base, and cause havoc on the basepaths. It needs to be a big step forward for baseball's best prospect, and it'll start down in Florida.
 
Welcome Park to the big leagues
 
Terry Ryan shocked much of the baseball world this offseason when his Twins made the winning bid for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. After two seasons in which he hit a combiner 100+ homers in the KBO, his power has to be his saving grace in the big leagues. Adept with the glove, it's the offense that Minnesota is relying on Park for. His average can dip, and with the strikeouts, it will. Park needs to get a couple of longballs under his belt down in Fort Myers, and his transition to the MLB game needs to happen as smoothly as possible.
 
Non-roster, non-issue
 
Almost more than any other season of memory, the Twins non-roster invitees for 2016 spring training are compiled of a star studded list. From Jose Berrios to Nick Burdi, the group is definitely pitcher heavy this time around. Considering the Twins are looking for front running rotation talent as well as bullpen arms, that's a good situation to be in. Down in Fort Myers, the non-roster guys need to step up. Berrios could do some serious work in regards to pushing himself closer to the 25 man, and Nick Burdi or Jake Reed could begin to force the Twins hand sooner rather than later.
 
Health above everything
 
Although depth is something this Twins team may have more than any other in the past, relying on it early isn't a good plan. Considering there's plenty of position and roster battles that will play out throughout the year, the last thing Paul Molitor wants is to see things decided by injury. Whether on the field or off of it, Minnesota needs to leave the Grapefruit League as healthy as they entered it.
 
The 2016 Minnesota Twins do not need to see all of these key areas play out to perfection to accomplish big things in the year ahead. However, the more they can count on out of the gate, the better chance they'll have to build on what was a successful 2015. We're almost there, and the smell of the freshly cut grass is more than apparent.
 
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A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had a glaring hole in the middle of their infield. While their were some concerns as to what might happen behind the plate with Kurt Suzuki being a regression candidate, it was a shortstop that bigger answers were needed. Danny Santana was given the starting role out of spring training (a move I agreed with), and he hung onto it for far too long. Then Eduardo Escobar emerged.
 
Following just under 100 games of Santana accumulating errors and failing to make plays, Paul Molitor turned the role over to former utility man Eduardo Escobar. Forever tied to Francisco Liriano for the Twins, Escobar was more than ready for the main stage.
 
In 2014, Escobar played 98 games at shortstop before going into 2015 spring training as the underdog. A year ago, he ended up starting 71 games at short, and has erased any doubt that he belongs there in the year ahead. Behind a strong offensive output, Escobar gave the Twins production they had not been capable of since J.J. Hardy owned the position.
 
During his 2015 campaign, Escobar slashed .262/.309/.405 on the season. He followed up his 35 doubles in 2014 with 31 last year, and set a new career high with 12 homers (doubling his previous best). His 58 runs batted in and 28 walks were also new high water marks. There were a few hot stretches that bolstered the Venezuelan's overall numbers, but it was consistency that got him through the year.
 
With his glove, Escobar may have made even bigger strides. In over 700 innings during the 2014 campaign, Eduardo was worth -6 DRS (defensive runs saved). He improved that number to a positive 2 mark in over 600 innings during 2015. Escobar also set a new career best UZR improving from 21 in 2014 to 2.6 a season ago.
 
There's some reason to believe that things keep happening for the Twins shortstop as well. His .301 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was down more than 30 points from where it was a year ago. His 13 point average dip from last year took the brunt of that difference. It's somewhat of a curious change as his hard hit rate stayed relatively the same a season ago (28.5% as opposed to 29.2% in 2014). Arguably, the biggest deficiency Escobar saw in his contact was a near 5% dip in line drives. With that number falling, it's easy to see why the average followed suit.
 
I have some concern that Escobar sudden power jolt may not be consistent. He'd never hit more than six homers in a season previously, and his home run to fly ball ratio pushed 10 last season, again nearly doubling the 2014 mark. Having hit just over 38% of batted balls in the air, Escobar could face some regression in the upcoming season. It was a 4% jump over his 2014 mark, and a new career high.
 
At the end of the day though, Escobar took the main stage and ran away with the starting role. The Twins needed someone to step up and hold down the role for the immediate future. Despite Engelb Vielma being a defensive wizard, and Nick Gordon being the presumed future, along with the signing of Wander Javier, Minnesota needed an answer now. Escobar provided them that and should continue to do so in the years ahead.
 
The way in which Francisco Liriano left Minnesota was less than ideal, but the return he provided continues to pay dividends.
 
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Keith Law, ESPN's Baseball Insider, posted his much-anticipated prospect analysis this week. First he launched his 2016 organizational rankings, and then he followed up with his pre-2016 top 100. With the Twins once again having a loaded system, ranked third overall by law, they had seven prospects show up in the top 100. As with all rankings, there's discussion, and that's where Off The Baggy comes in.
 
Looking at the organization rankings, there's not much to complain about with the Twins positioning. Despite graduating Miguel Sano and a host of other prospects a season ago, Minnesota trailed only the Braves and Dodgers when it came to organizational rankings. The Twins seven top 100 prospects also was in a three-way tie for first (with the other aforementioned organizations) as the most by any team in baseball.
 
The prospects themselves are where things start to get interesting for Law. As with all players, some evaluators are going to see certain skills and detractors in a higher light. Law has provided some ammunition for discussion, while also being incredibly fair across the board.
 
He has Byron Buxton sitting second behind only the Dodger Corey Seager on his top 100 list. Seager plays shortstop and is regarded as a premier talent. While Buxton's plus-plus tools also put him in the premier category, it's hard to ignore the hiccup that was his MLB debut. No doubt Minnesota is hoping for better out of their former first round pick, and it should come in 2016.
 
Despite his debut, Law still sees plenty of promise in the Georgia native. He notes, "a star even if he hits .240, as that would probably come with 50 steals, 10-12 homers and big defensive contributions." That being the floor for Buxton puts the Twins in a very good place. Eduardo Escobar smacked 12 longballs a year ago, and Buxton's smooth swing should help him replicate at least that amount. He has a good feel for hitting at the plate, and very well could hit for average if things click.
 
Over the past two years, Law has been incredibly tough on Jose Berrios. If there's a prospect I've been opposite on, it's this one. Law doesn't like Berrios' arm action, and his short stature leads to flat fastballs. He notes that as Berrios reaches the big leagues, the balls leaving the park could turn into a problem.
 
Despite having kept the ball in the park on his way up the ladder, Berrios continue to draw Law's ire. He gave up 12 homers a year ago across Double and Triple-A. That number could inflate to the high teens in the big leagues, but I'd guess it still shouldn't be much of a concern. A season ago, Law noted Berrios being a third starter at best. Where things stand now, I'd hope he sees him as a two at worst, with ace potential. He has the makings of a very, very good option for Minnesota.
 
Following the top two guys, Max Kepler squeezed into the top 50 for Law as well. He put himself on the map big time a season ago, and Kepler looks like he could be a real star. He does so many things really well, and he doesn't do too much poorly. Kepler should have plenty of opportunity to make waves for the Twins as early as this year, and all of the waiting on him may finally come to fruition.
 
On the back side of the top 50, Law's first inclusion was somewhat curious to me. Putting Kohl Stewart at 53 seems to be incredibly high. The Texas native has had two seasons with declining strikeout rates and shoulder issues. He's been billed as a potential ace, but his low level struggles should be serious reason for pauses.
 
At some point, Stewart is going to have to step out from behind the narrative that he's still transitioning from a football player, and he's going to need to make his splash. doing so in 2016 at Double-A would be a very good start, and no doubt get him back on track. Depending on how the year ahead goes, he could be an option for the Twins in 2017, or he could fall even further off of my radar.
 
Rounding out the group is a trio of interesting names. Tyler Jay appears first and remains tough to project. As a left-handed reliever, he's probably close to big league ready. Minnesota no doubt drafted him in the first round to start however, and that transition is going to take more time.
 
I've talked plenty about Jorge Polanco, and he remains one of the most interesting prospects for me in the year ahead. I'd contend he could start on a handful of big league teams at second base right now. The Twins don't have room, and I'd struggle to move Trevor Plouffe to put Polanco and his questionable arm at the hot corner. He's either going to hit his way into the Twins plans, or maybe more likely, into some other organizations.
 
Last but not least, Nick Gordon makes the list. Of all the Twins prospects Law included, it's Gordon that probably gets chastised the most. No longer seen as an All-Star type by the ESPN Insider, Law suggest Gordon is "very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there."
 
Noting the change in long term belief in regards to Gordon, I struggle to see what Law is making such a brash decision off of. His evaluation is sound, but a half of a season at Low-A Cedar Rapids that started slow shouldn't be worthy of a complete reversal. Gordon slashed roughly the same at Low-A as he did in Rookie Ball, and it was his slow start that no doubt caused the dip in batting average. At just 20 years old, it's probably best to hold out on dropping his season until we see what he can do at either Fort Myers or Chattanooga in the not so distant future.
 
As the dust settles, Minnesota once again proves to have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Twins have done a great job of drafting talent of late, and it has no doubt contributed to the renewed excitement around the ballclub. We should continue to see those efforts pay off in the years to come.
 
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Looking at the state of the Minnesota Twins heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the word depth has come up often. Whether it be the surplus of young talent rising to the top of the system, the pitching staff and multiple arms competing to complete it, or the 25 man as a whole. For the first time in a while, the Twins have some depth working to their advantage. Quite possibly however, it could work to their disadvantage.
 
Some of the focus this offseason has been in regards to the starting rotation and the perception of depth among that group. Minnesota has three pitchers locked into starting roles including: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Behind them, a combination of Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, and Trevor may will slot into the final two spots. As it pertains to pitching, the fear is their is more quantity than their is quality options.
 
It's pretty easy to suggest some of those starting pitching concerns are overblown. The Twins starting staff is going to be better than it was a season ago, and even significantly isn't much of a stretch. No matter who fills out those final two spots (though it likely will be Duffey and Milone), there's plenty of insurance options directly behind them.
 
Looking at the 25 man roster however, the Twins have another area where their depth may come into question. Looking at what the projected bench may be, Minnesota could find itself in some interesting spots. The goal for playoff and World Series team's alike is to have a better 25th player than that of your opponent. Some nights, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Twins to accomplish that feat.
 
Paul Molitor should have Eduardo Nunez, John Ryan Murphy, Oswaldo Arcia, and Danny Santana at his disposal on a nightly basis. Of them, you'd be hard pressed to argue any one of them is a complete player and offers immense upside for a 2016 Twins squad needing to squeeze out a few extra wins. Nunez is with the Twins on a one-year, arbitration deal, while Santana and Arcia are out of options, and Murphy is looking to carve into the starting lineup.
 
A season ago, Nunez hit .282/.327/.431 in 72 games for Minnesota. That was easily the best slash line of his career, and a great deal better than the .267/.308/.388 career mark he's posted thus far. His 1.1 fWAR was nearly a full win above his previous career best, and considering his -0.6 fWAR career mark, a significant jump for a single season. Nunez also batted above .300 (.314 to be exact) on balls in play for just the second time of his career (the other time was in a 38 game sduring 2012 for the Yankees).
 
Nunez's hard hit rates didn't change much last season, and his contact rate actually dipped a little. He's still going to provide the Twins positional flexibility, but the offensive production is likely more mirage than it is indicative of what's to come.
 
Then there's Danny Santana. If there's a guy that knows about BABIP it's Santana. After hitting .319/.353/.472 in 2014, Santana's inflated .405 BABIP brought him back down to earth. Minnesota gave him an incredibly long leash a season ago, and in 91 games he slashed a terrible .215/.241/.291. His -15 DRS (defensive runs saved), and 16 errors at SS in just 66 games were beyond bad, and he's since been moved back to the outfield.
 
Santana is out of options in 2016, and that forces the Twins hand. He should be deployed as a super utility player that doesn't defend anywhere exceptionally well. His infield defense has been covered, and he's just a bit below average in center (a position in which he should only spell Byron Buxton). For Santana though, it comes down to whether he can hit at all, and a season ago, the Twins didn't see it.
 
That brings us to Arcia, who like Santana, absolutely needs to hit. Of the group thus far, Arcia no doubt presents the most offensive upside. He's just a year removed from a 20 homer output, and the hulking Venezuelan has real power when he connects. The issue is that doesn't happen often enough.
 
Despite posting a nice .276/.338/.379 slash line in 19 games with the Twins, the power didn't show itself enough to get him extended run. He reeled off a nice home run stretch at Triple-A in 2015, but he finished with an awful .199/.257/.372 slash line in 79 games for Rochester. He's never posted below a 15.0% swinging strike rate, and last season, he nearly swung and missed 20% of the time. With the Twins a year ago, he also chased pitches out of the zone nearly 50% of the time.
 
A bad outfielder (-27 DRS in 204 games played), Arcia has to hit to give the Twins any real benefit. Molitor can't afford to play him and Miguel Sano in the outfield at the same time, and coming off of the bench cold may not help his bat. Arcia, like Santana, is out of options, and without his bat catching fire, could do more harm for Minnesota than good.
 
Finally, the club will have a capable big league catcher to swap with Kurt Suzuki for the first time in a while. Gone are the days of calling up Four-A type players like Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann. Murphy is far from a set-the-world-on-fire type, but he's got promise to develop into a nice big league starter. With Minnesota looking to avoid activating Suzuki's player option for 2017, the starting role should become Murphy's role sooner than later.
 
In his career, Murphy has never played more than 67 games at the big league level in a season. Over the last two years for the Yankees however (99 games) he's slashed .280/.324/.394. There's probably more doubles power than home run reliability there, but he looks the part of a capable big league hitter. Most importantly for the Twins is that Murphy possesses capable receiving skills as well as the ability to throw would be base-stealers out (did so at a 28% clip in 2015).
 
Paul Molitor is going to ease Murphy into the starting lineup, but he's more than a throw in secondary catcher. While not an offensive juggernaut, his role on the Twins bench is much more in line with future promise than his counterparts.
 
At the end of the day, planning to fill out your bench with starting caliber players isn't a realistic strategy. What the Twins have though may be more a by-product of their situation, and not exactly the depth on the 25 man roster you'd like to see. It's tough to envision top prospects like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler coming up to the big league level in a reserve role, but the Twins could probably advance their overall ability be considering it at some point.
 
Should the Twins move towards a second playoff push in 2016, it will likely be some combination of their bench out producing expectations, and that bench transforming. No doubt making waves in October is about getting production from your best players, but the Twins will also be looking to push the envelope when it comes to the guys that round out the club as well.
 
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This offseason, few areas had more of an emphasis on them than that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. While the situation as a whole needed addressing, it was the left handed contingent that no doubt left the most to be desired. Having significant deficiencies in late innings a season ago cost the Twins, and there appears to be two strategies at play when it comes to fixing things moving forward.
 
On the left-handed side of the relief picture, the Twins have moved on from roster staple Brian Duensing. Arguably sticking with him a year or so too long, Duensing was the epitome of the Twins shortcomings in relief a season ago. He owned a pedestrian 4.25 ERA, stuck no one out (4.4 K/9) and walked too many batters (3.9 BB/9). Heading into 2016 with Glen Perkins as the lone left handed option, the Twins needed to seek outside help.
 
In scouring the market, the deal the New York Mets handed to Antonio Bastardo (2 years, $12m) seemingly provides the most uproar when it comes to the Twins handling of their pen. An affordable deal in an otherwise ballooning relief market, Bastardo on his own could have made sense for Minnesota. With how Minnesota acted prior to him being signed however, their stance on the left all but makes sense.
 
Early on in the offseason, the Twins targeted left-handed reliever Fernando Abad, formerly of the Oakland Athletics. His K/9 rate (8.5) was a career high a season ago, but it was the ugly ERA (4.15) and FIP (5.50) numbers, along with decreased velocity (down nearly 2 mph on his fastball) that led to him earning just an MiLB deal. The Twins were noted to believe that Abad had been tipping his pitches per LaVelle Neal, and Parker Hageman of Twins Daily broke that down wonderfully. What the signing of Abad indicates is a stance in belief of an internal process, and the work of pitching coach Neil Allen.
 
Minnesota is almost assuredly going to roll with Abad come Opening Day. Brought in as a non-roster invitee to spring training, Abad has the potential to earn a couple million should he make the team. In using this approach, Terry Ryan put faith in his coaches, as well as the internal belief that Abad has more to offer. From the moment the deal was struck, it became illogical for the Twins to offer a multi-year deal with Bastardo or anyone else of similar situation.
 
Had the Twins decided to bring in a more certain left-handed reliever, and on a multi-year deal, the plan with Abad likely would have been moot prior to even getting off of the ground. Sticking to the belief that he will work had to be the plan all the way through. As an insurance policy should things go wrong, the Twins could look to double down on another MiLB type deal.
 
Internally, Minnesota would turn to the likes of Mike Strong, Pat Dean, or Taylor Rogers for left-handed relief. A more proven veteran option could include someone like Neal Cotts or Matt Thornton. Both have the likely possibility of landing an MLB deal, but Minnesota could ask nonetheless. With the Abad situation playing out as it has however, the Twins are best served to put no one in front of him for a roster spot at this point.
 
That leads us to the second strategy that Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins seem to be leaning towards. Although one of the largest roster issues at the top is relief pitching, it's actually one of the organizations greatest strengths as well. On the farm, the likes of Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, J.T. Chargois, and Mason Melotakis are not far off. Obviously varying in expectations, each of them could be called upon to be key contributors in relief during the 2016 season.
On the right-handed side of the bullpen, Minnesota decided to make no moves. Although Brandon Kintzler was brought into the fold, he appears to be more minor league depth than anything. There was no move for Tyler Clippard, or anyone else of significant substance for that matter. By all estimations, that should signify an aggressive approach internally.
 
The Twins won't be moving on from Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, or Trevor May any time soon, but that would appear to be where the sure things in the bullpen end. Should Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin or someone else falter, pulling performers that have been drafted in the organization is a noble idea. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and even Alex Meyer all have the ability to bring a level of velocity and strikeout totals not witnessed in relief for Minnesota in quite some time. The biggest contingent to this strategy is Minnesota actually following through on it.
 
Having not made guaranteed moves at the major league level, Minnesota cannot be shy about aggressively asking its prospects to come up and contribute. I see the group of Burdi, Chargois, and Reed all making a big league debut by the end of July, and that would be a successful follow up to the way the offseason was handled. Slow playing those prospects while not making a more certain move at the top would remain contradictory.
 
As things stand now, the Twins are still likely listening in on what the market is dictating. The two worst moves that they could make at this point are simple however. Signing a left-handed reliever to a multi-year deal for guaranteed money, or signing any right-handed pitcher to anything but a multi-year deal. We've addressed the former and the implications it would have against any strategy employed with Fernando Abad. The latter, barring Tyler Clippard walking through the door, would negate a desire to reap the fruits of your system. A caveat to the second situation, is that Ryan and company must follow through by going internal for a relief boost.
 
On paper, it appears that the Twins have more strategy than they are being credited with when it comes to filling out the pen. It remains to be seen whether or not that ends up resulting in action.
 
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We are quickly coming to a close on the month of January, and that can only mean one thing, pitchers and catchers begin to report to spring training soon. For the Twins many of those players will funnel down to Fort Myers following the conclusion of Twins Fest. With a handful of exciting non-roster invitees this season, Minnesota should have plenty of competition for the active roster. The question is, who makes it come Opening Day?
 
We've taken a look at the lay of the land in the AL Central, and the Twins look poised to be right in the thick of things. How far they fluctuate up or down should have plenty to do with what contributions they get from new faces, and which cornerstones continue to produce. Much of the active roster appears to be a forgone conclusion, but there's a few cracks for players to force their way in.
Here's how I expect the Twins to kick things off April 4th at Camden Yards:
 
Rotation (5)
Ervin Santana
Phil Hughes
Kyle Gibson
Tyler Duffey
Tommy Milone

Santana and Hughes could no doubt flip-flop for the Opening Day starter role. Santana finished the year off on a hot streak, while Hughes is looking for a return to 2015 form in the year ahead. Regardless of who starts game one, the combination of those two will be looked upon to shoulder the load of holding down Minnesota's rotation.
 
More than any other starter in 2016, I expect Kyle Gibson to take another big step forwards and expand upon what was a nice season a year ago. Tyler Duffey has shown he has the stuff to belong in the big leagues, and his sophomore season will be about continuing to make hitters miss despite a new level of familiarity.
 
Rounding out the group is the lone lefty of the bunch, Tommy Milone. More than capable as a back-end starter, Milone as a 5th highlights the Twins rotational depth (something we haven't seen in recent years). Both Duffey and Milone will be pushed for continued success by the likes of capable arms on the farm such as Jose Berrios.
 
Starting Lineup (9)
Kurt Suzuki C
Joe Mauer 1B
Brian Dozier 2B
Eduardo Escobar SS
Trevor Plouffe 3B
Miguel Sano LF
Byron Buxton CF
Eddie Rosario RF
Byung Ho Park DH

The infield remains unchanged from how it finished a season ago. Suzuki will rotate catching duties with John Ryan Murphy, but should get the first crack. Mauer remains at first while Brian Dozier looks to put together a complete season of All Star caliber play. With Trevor Plouffe remaining with the club, his bat and glove keep him at the hot corner.
 
Patience paid off sticking with the lottery ticket acquired in exchange for Francisco Liriano. Eduardo Escobar was one of the best shortstops in the big leagues after settling in down the stretch, and while regression is probably due, he's more than a capable starter. Newly acquired slugger Byung Ho Park gets DH duties, and then we get to the outfield.
 
Sano in left is going to be interesting considering the ground to cover. Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham have both been a warm body in the role previously, and there's some reason to believe the Sano experiment could work. He should be aided by the speed of both Buxton and Rosario to his left out in the grass.
 
Bench (4)
Danny Santana Util
Oswaldo Arcia OF
John Ryan Murphy C
Eduardo Nunez Util

A four man bench is filled out by two players the Twins are likely going to be forced to bring north (for better or worse). Santana actually projects well as a super utility type that could play both the infield and outfield, even if it's at a less than ideal clip. He should spell players around the diamond, and if he can hit, could find himself in the lineup 2-3 times a week. Arcia, like Santana, is also out of options, and the Twins are best served to give him every chance to succeed. Whether getting starts in the corner outfield, or as a bench bat, it's 2016 or bust for the Venezuelan slugger.
 
Avoiding arbitration, the Twins agreed to a new one-year deal with Derek Jeter's former replacement, Nunez. He'll spell players on the left side of the infield, and we should also avoid seeing him in the outfield this season (thankfully). Monitor's bench candidates will be filled out by backup, and hopeful eventual starter, John Ryan Murphy. Looking to replace Suzuki in the near future, the Twins could flip flop the vet an Murphy relatively early on.
 
Bullpen (7)
Glen Perkins Cl
Kevin Jepsen SU
Trevor May SU
Casey Fien
Fernando Abad
Ricky Nolasco
Alex Meyer

Despite having relief questions, there aren't any at the back-end of the Twins pen. Glen Perkins is looking to stay healthy for a full year, but he's coming off a third straight All Star trip. When he's healthy, he's among the best in the game. Bridging to him will be the likes of the Twins two other sure things in the pen, Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May.
 
From there, things get more interesting. After avoiding arbitration with Casey Fien, Minnesota will reward the reliever for a strong finish to the 2015 season. He remains the only sure thing of this final group. Brought in on a minor league deal, Fernando Abad appears to have the inside track as the token lefty in relief. That leaves two spots, and one almost certainly to be claimed by the massive contract of Ricky Nolasco. Minnesota needs Nolasco to perform for anyone else to have interest in him, and doing so could prove value to the Twins as well.
 
That leaves one opening, and it may come as somewhat of a surprise. While Michael Tonkin could claim the spot, I'm giving it to former top pitching prospect Alex Meyer. In relief to end the year, Meyer pitched extremely well and was deserving of a September call up. An immensely higher ceiling than other options, Meyer could go one to be one of the Twins best in relief. He's going to need to earn it in the spring, but I'd have a hard time betting against him.
 
Just Missed
Max Kepler
Kennys Vargas
Ryan Pressly
Michael Tonkin
J.R. Graham
It would be fun to consider Jorge Polanco and Jose Berrios as just missed type players, but I think we'd be fooling ourselves. Whether Berrios deserves an Opening Day inclusion or not (he does), his exclusion isn't performance related whatsoever. For Polanco, missing 25 man shot comes down to being a man without a role. His bat is ready, but he can't field and he's stuck behind Dozier at this point.
 
For the guys that may have had a shot, there's just a little knock on each of them. Kepler gets to feel the roster crunch, and will likely have to wait for Minnesota to sour on either Santana or Arcia first. He shouldn't be a 4th, and will likely get regular outfield starts when called upon. Kenny's Vargas finds himself in an opposite scenario, controlling his own destiny. Likely destined for a bench bat role, he absolutely has to hit. Not doing so last year hurt his chances, and he'll have to make noise with his bat to get back up.
 
The trio of pitchers left off is a group of familiar names. Ryan Pressly has been very effective when healthy, but he's coming off an injury that saw him spend nearly all of the season on the DL. With a couple of other options, the Twins can afford to take it easy with him. For Tonkin, the decision to leave him off is a difficult one. He's out of options, and that very well could get him the job. He was sent up and down far too often last year, and it will depend on whether the Twins decide to stick with him for a fair amount of time or not. J.R. Graham rounds out the group after being a Rule 5 guy a season ago. he worked well when hidden, but was exposed far too often and could benefit from some more time on the farm.
 
As the Twins get set to embark on Fort Myers, there's really not a whole lot of unsettled business. While guys at the top may feel comfortable, it's in relief that there seems to be the most contention to make waves. Who does so will be worth monitoring, and as always, there's that spring training surprise.
 
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Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins.
 
In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins.
 
Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated.
 
A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however.
 
In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts.
 
From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff.
 
So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers.
 
Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162.
 
At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion.
 
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Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins.
 
In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins.
 
Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated.
 
A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however.
 
In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts.
 
From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff.
 
So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers.
 
Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162.
 
At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion.
 
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Thus far, the Minnesota Twins major moves this offseason came before free agency got underway. The club signed Byung Ho Park and traded for John Ryan Murphy. Despite having a rather ineffective bullpen a season ago, the club hasn't really addressed the situation to this point. With the way the market has shaped up however, that may be the best choice.
 
So far, the Twins have taken fliers on players like Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler. Signed to minor league deals with spring training implications, it's essentially Terry Ryan and crew asking veterans to prove it. Rather than doling out big money, they've taken the path of least resistance. If that was the only thing the Twins had going for them, I'd have much more concern. The reality is, they don't.
 
The Pittsburgh Pirates just inked former fireballing closer Neftali Feliz to a one-year deal just shy of $4 million. Last season Felix owned a 6.38 ERA split between the Rangers and Tigers. His strikeout rates dipped again, and he continued a career long path of less than ideal walk rates. In fact, Feliz hasn't been reliable (mostly for health reasons) since 2011, a year after he won the Rookie of the Year.
 
With deals like that of Feliz floating around the market, and many teams looking to replicate the dominant bullpen that the Kansas City Royals patented, money has gone over the top. Tony Sipp, who was just a short time removed from a DFA action, will play for a $6 million average annual value over the next three seasons. Thanks to the Royals, and the emergence of bullpen importance, the relief market has exploded. In Minnesota's case though, the best route may actually have been to stand pat.
 
There's a pretty logical argument to be made that it will be Abad who emerges from spring training with a big league roster spot. No doubt both sides could see the mutual benefit of one another, and Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for the Athletics. As a low risk placeholder, Minnesota could have done significantly worse.
 
What makes the Twins best suited to take the plan of action they seem to have embarked on though is not the minor league signings they have inked, but instead their own internal option. Among my 2016 Top 15 Twins Prospects, ten players are pitchers. As of this moment, four of those ten are already relievers. As they saying goes, failed starters make some of the best relievers, so it's safe to assume a transition of at least a couple more will take place.
 
Thus far, the Twins have begun to roll the ball down the path of clearing the way for the fruits of their labor to be unleashed. In drafting players like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois, the Twins have compiled strong relief arms. Rather than go over the top on an inflated pitching market, Minnesota controls its own fate from within the internal talent pool.
 
Looking at what Feliz has been for the majority of his career, there's a solid argument to be made that at least one of Reed, Burdi, or Chargois outproduces him in 2015. Alex Meyer seems to factor into the Twins bullpen, and Tyler Jay could eventually return to that designation as well. As a whole, Minnesota has plenty of projectable contributors already within the organization.
 
Should the Twins decide to slow-play the aforementioned pitching prospects, or not use them at all, it would be quite the unfortunate step backwards. They've opened the door to reworking their relief corps into a strength through internal options, but the process has to continue. Both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor must be aware and willing to call upon the young arms that truly can help at the next level. By not signing big deal relievers, there's no impending road blocks for the Twins to continue along the current path. The organization must continue to remember that as those prospects begin to force their hand.
 
In all situations, choosing a cheaper or less risky route isn't completely ideal. With the organizations current makeup however, and the handful of solid relief prospects, the Twins may have started down a road that makes a lot of sense in the year ahead. The biggest mistake at this point would be to turn around.
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While the offseason has been somewhat slow for the Minnesota Twins, they made one big splash in signing Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. Although Park is not a prospect joining the fold on a big league deal, he'll be one of many Twins rookies in 2016. With one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, it's the home grown prospects in the Minnesota organization that also provide plenty of excitement.
 
As much as the Twins should be looking to address their deficiencies on the big league roster from outside of the organization, they could potentially have numerous answers from within. Despite graduating a couple of key prospects a season ago, Minnesota still boasts some impressive youth. Without further ado, let's get into it. Your Off The Baggy, Top 15 Twins Prospects:
 
1. Byron Buxton CF
 
Buxton just barely makes the cut, and it literally is by the slimmest of margins. He didn't accumulate the 45 days of service time due to injury, and he ended up with 129 at-bats a season ago (two shy of surpassing the required 130). He'll enter the upcoming season with a legitimate claim to AL Rookie of the Year honors, and he'll have a decent amount to prove. Buxton stumbled out of the gate for the Twins a season ago, but his .301/.383/.489 minor league slash line is going to show up. Expect him to break out in a big way this season.
 
2. Jose Berrios SP
 
Behind Buxton, there is no Twins prospect with more excitement tied to them. After an impressive 2014 season that saw the Puerto Rican rise three levels in the Twins system, he followed it up by being even better last year. Berrios owned a 2.85 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts, and compiled a 9.9 K/9 mark at the highest minor league level. He's taken plenty of criticism about his stature and sustainability while dispelling all of it along the way. Berrios has impact starter written all over him, and this should be the year it appears in Twins Territory.
 
3. Tyler Jay SP
 
2016 will mark Jay's first full year working as a starting pitcher. Drafted as a reliever in the first round out of Illinois a season ago, Jay was going to be pushed in his professional debut. Placed at High-A Fort Myers, Jay struggled before settling in to end the year. His strikeout stuff played well, and his biggest detriment was an inflated BABIP by batters facing him. It will be interesting to see how Jay transitions to the rotation, but as a fallback option he's a legitimate lock-down reliever. As the 6th overall pick in the 2015 draft, a reliever wouldn't be ideal, but I think Jay has the chops to stick as a starter, and be a very solid one.
 
4. Nick Gordon SS
 
At points during the 2015 season, it appeared the Twins had no answer in sight at shortstop. That changed with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. It is shortstop-of-the-future in Gordon though who may have impressed the most. After a slow start to the year, Gordon turned in a .308/.349/.430 slash line from July 1 through the end of the season. He has doubles power, and his instincts at short are beyond great. I'd expected him to succeed in a similar fashion in the year ahead. A jump to High-A Fort Myers will test him, but the 20 year-old has all the makings of a very special player going forward.
 
5. Max Kepler OF
 
If Nick Gordon had the most impressive 2015 season among infield prospects, it was Kepler claiming that award for outfielders. After laying waste to Double-A Chattanooga, Kepler was given a September cup of coffee with the Twins. His .322/.416/.531 Double-A slash line was exceptional, and he's already pushing for big league playing time. There's a very outside chance he breaks camp with the Twins, but regardless, he should see plenty of action for the Twins in the year ahead.
 
6. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
It was Berrios who dominated the upper levels of the Twins system in 2015, but it was Gonsalves who was making a mockery of Single-A talent. At Cedar Rapids, his ERA was a sparkling 1.15. It rose to 2.95 at High-A Fort Myers in 15 starts, but still was more than impressive. Gonsalves ended up with an 8.8 K/9 rate a season ago. Unfortunately, it dipped to 6.2 per nine at Fort Myers, but it's fair to chalk it up to his first experience at that level. He's going to start at Fort Myers in 2016, with a chance to make his Double-A debut at some point. Just 21, Gonsalves is trending in the right direction.
 
7. Jorge Polanco 2B
 
Polanco takes a bit of a drop in the rankings this year, but it's less about his performance than it is of those around him. Polanco essentially replicated his 2014 that landed him in the big leagues for a brief five game stint. He slashed .288/.339/.386 between Double and Triple-A in 2015. As of right now, Polanco's bat is more than ready for the next level, but it's his glove that leaves plenty to be desired. He made 20 errors in 83 Double-A games at shortstop, then followed that up with another eight in just 19 at the Triple-A level. Polanco is a second basemen through and through, but the Twins don't have a need there. I still am of the belief that Polanco's greatest asset to Minnesota is as a trade chip.
 
8. Taylor Rogers SP
 
Including Rogers within the top 10 is a great development for the Twins. Not only is he another strong pitching prospect, but he's the second lefty of the group. Rogers was the anchor of the Triple-A Rochester rotation in 2015, and for good reason. Across 27 starts, how owned a 3.98 ERA while limiting walks to just 2.3 per nine. Although Rogers isn't a strikeout guy (just 7.0 K/9 for his career), he flashed well in the Arizona Fall League (2.88 ERA 7.6 K/9). I think he's probably more of a reliever at the next level, but that's far from a bad thing for a team needing bullpen help.
 
9. Nick Burdi RP
 
Although Burdi's 2015 saw a demotion for the fireballing prospect, it's hard to look at it with too much disdain. He struggled with walks early at Double-A Chattanooga, and then eventually was able to figure things out. On the season, he posted an 11.7 K/9 and his flawless Arizona Fall League performance (8.0 IP 0.00 ERA 1.1 BB/9 12.4 K/9) leaves plenty to build off of heading into the spring. He should be given a look by the Twins over the summer, and he has the stuff to be a key cog in the late innings of an important game.
 
10. Kohl Stewart SP
 
For the second straight year, the Twins 2013 first round pick took a step backwards. Once again dealing with injuries for a portion of the season, Stewart saw his strikeout rates take another dip. After dropping to 6.4 K/9 in 2014 (from 10.8 in his debut season), Stewart fanned batters at just a 4.9 K/9 clip at High-A Fort Myers. He kept his walks in check issuing just 3.1 per nine, and in turn experienced just a slight rise in his ERA (3.20). Stewart was once projected as a top-of-the-rotation starter but that luster has since worn off. The year ahead may be the most important of Stewart's career, and righting the ship could go a long ways for his future prospects.
 
11. Adam Brett Walker OF
 
Arguably one of the hardest prospects in the Twins system to project future success for is Walker. For the second season in a row, he was a home run hitting machine, this time around with 31. The flip side to that is he struck out a ridiculous 195 times at Double-A. Walker's strikeout rates aren't good, and the competition is only going to get better as he moves up the ladder. If Walker can somehow figure out how to harness that power while still having some discipline in regards to the strike zone, he could transform himself into an impact player at the next level. Right now, he's a power hitter that's a long ways off from being a reliable contributor.
 
12. Alex Meyer RP
 
Entering 2015, there was plenty of reason to argue Meyer had a legitimate claim to a rotation spot. After following up a 4.4 BB/9 rate in 2014, Meyer declined to 4.7 in 2015. His strikeouts were still there (9.8 K/9 in 2015), but his ERA ballooned to 4.79 at Triple-A Rochester despite making just eight starts. Minnesota probably hasn't completely moved on from Meyer as a starter, but he has the makings of a very solid reliever. If he can show a better hold on his command early in 2016, expecting him to be one of the twins best relievers is not out of the question.
 
13. J.T. Chargois RP
 
Healthy again after missing multiple seasons, Chargois pitched in the Twins organization for the first time since 2012. Splitting time between Fort Myers and Chattanooga, Chargois made easy work of both levels. He owned a 9.9 K/9 rate on the season and compiled a 2.62 ERA. Although he doesn't throw quite as hard as Burdi, he's plenty capable of blowing the ball by hitters. Very close to major league ready, Chargois is another name that should be an internal options for a needy big league bullpen.
 
14. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Thorpe did not pitch in 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 20 year-old Australian reached Cedar Rapids at the age of 18 before going under the knife a season ago. He's going to be eased back in, but pitching in Iowa at some point during the 2016 season should be the expectation. His 2.96 career ERA combined with an 11.2 K/9 career number suggests he still should remain a very exciting prospect.
 
15. Jake Reed RP
 
In a system seemingly filled with pitching prospects, it's Reed who rounds out the Burdi/Chargois group. All three profile as impact bullpen arms, and Reed fits a similar mold to the aforementioned two. His strikeout rates are lower over his career (8.5 K/9), but he's also walked just 2.5 per nine in his two minor league seasons. Reed struggled and was demoted from Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, but it's not indicative of what is to come. His Arizona Fall League performance was dominant (10.2 IP 1.60 ERA 8.4 K/9) and he has a chance to get to the big leagues this summer.
 
Minnesota has a good grouping of both hitters and pitchers among their top prospects. With a major league roster looking for talent to push the overall ceiling, the graduation of internal prospects should help to accomplish just that. The Twins continue to have one of the deepest farm systems as 2016 begins, and it should benefit them in the seasons ahead.
 
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Going into the offseason, the Twins had laid the groundwork for a competitive team in 2016. They had their deficiencies, namely the bullpen, that needed to be addressed. For the most part however, the organization had internal pieces that could be expected to be counted upon in the year ahead. After bringing in a power bat in the form of Byung Ho Park, the lineup seemed to be in a good place.
 
What could elevate it even further though, is the resurgence of a once counted upon offensive member.
The most damning statistic for the Twins in the year ahead has to do with repeating a non-repeatable statistic. Despite finishing the season 83-79, Minnesota used clutch situations to their advantage at a very high rate. Looking at FanGraphs, there's two very alarming statistics when it comes to the 2015 Twins. The team owned a +10 in BaseRuns and trailed only the Royals (5.05) in the clutch category, with a mark of 3.81.
 
First, BaseRuns is a comprehensive team metric that evaluates all of the plays a team was involved in. With the Twins being ten over the average, they performed above the expected result at a very high rate. At the same time, the Twins were also exceptional in clutch situations. With zero being a baseline, many players find themselves somewhere between -1 and 1. FanGraphs equates a player below -1 in clutch situations as poor, and anything above 2.0 as being excellent. While not singling anyone out, the Twins as a whole were a 3.81.
 
What these two metrics tell us is that Minnesota experience a very high rate of success in categories that are hardly possible to be consistently replicated. If a player was to try harder or play better in high-leverage situations, the argument would have to be made that they were not doing the same in lower-leverage situations, a silly proposition.
 
This brings us to a player on the Twins that can be considered the gold-standard when it came to clutch performances a season ago. Joe Mauer.
 
Playing in a career high, 158 games for Minnesota, Mauer slashed a career worst .265/.338/.380 while hitting 10 homers, 34 doubles, and driving in 66 runs. What's astonishing is just how good Mauer was with runners in scoring position a season ago. In 161 plate appearances, Mauer slashing .352/.466/.456 with nine extra base hits, and 52 runs batted in. In those situations, his walk to strikeout ratio was also 30/27. Conversely, when Mauer batted with the bases empty (394 plate appearances), his slash line was an ugly .232/.284/.349. In those situations, his strikeout to walk ratio was a lopsided 27/70.
 
So what does this tell us? Understandably so, Mauer was a better hitter with runners on bases. Forcing opposing pitchers to be careful to limit damage and not go directly after Mauer, Joe was able to take a more calculated approach at the plate. This led to an increased output, and allowed a very professional hitter to exploit his opponents. When it comes to Mauer's approach in 2015, there's also some interesting developments.
 
Minnesota noted a desire to have Mauer pull the ball more. Hitting coach Tom Brunansky was working with Mauer to yank the ball with power, rather than his more typical ground balls to the right side of the infield. As a whole, Mauer pulled the ball 30.5% of the time, his highest career mark since 2012 (32.1%). This in turn led to one of his lowest opposite field hitting seasons, going the other way just 32.1% of the time. On top of the difference in his spray chart, Mauer's level of contact was somewhat odd.
 
Posting the worst mark since 2011 when he hit 18.8% of batted balls "soft," Mauer owned a 16.5% "soft" hit rate. What was positive is that his "hard" hit rate climbed to 29.2%. Owning a career 33.4% "hard" hit rate, Mauer would see a generous increase in his production across the board should he return to his 3.7% mark from 2013.
 
When considering what Mauer did in high-leverage situations during 2015, his plate discipline is the biggest area needing improvement. A guy who has swung at just under 22% of pitches outside of the strike zone, took hacks at a career worst 27.6% of pitches missing the strike zone last year. On top of chasing more often, Mauer also swung and missed at a career worst 6.2% of pitches. Those two developments no doubt contributed to Mauer's career worst 112 strikeouts.
 
So, where do we go from here? Well, that's up to Paul Molitor. With Byung Ho Park and Miguel Sano now set to be regulars in the Twins lineup, Minnesota has their three and four hitters set. Putting Trevor Plouffe in that mix as well, the five hole is probably spoken for. That leaves Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton in position to compete for the top two lineup spots, giving Mauer the positioning he looks destined to succeed in, the six hole.
 
In his career, Mauer has batted sixth just five times (starting just one of those games). He owns two doubles in four at-bats, a negligible sample size. What's important though, is just how good Mauer is with men on base. Over the past two seasons, the Twins first basemen has slashed .303/.418/.418 with runners on base. In those at-bats, he's also owned an 86/89 strikeout to walk ratio. Thanks to the likelihood of baserunners batting from the six hole, Mauer's production should be assumed to be the best since 20134, the last time he was an All Star.
 
Steamer projections have Mauer getting 610 plate appearances across 136 games in 2016. They suggest he'll turn that into a .274/.355/.390 average with 30 doubles, nine homers, and 61 runs batted in. The strikeout to walk ratio is also projected to remain similar at 108/67. Should Molitor attempt to squeeze Mauer somewhere in his top five, I could see those numbers being very accurate. The disagreement comes from the hope that Molitor makes the sensible change.
 
Batting Mauer sixth in an improved lineup should yield much more positive results. I'd guess Mauer plays more than 136 games in the year ahead, but regardless, his line in the new batting spot should look something like .290/.397/.400. The doubles production should remain right around 30, with the home runs checking in just shy of the double digit mark. Expect another uptick in runs batted in, which would give the Twins a producer in the bottom half.
 
While some veterans may take a lineup adjustment as a demotion, Mauer should see it as an opportunity. Returning more closely towards the production his career was once synonymous with seems most plausible in this scenario, and that's something Mauer would be on board with. Minnesota will experience some regression from hitters in the year ahead, but don't be shocked when it's Mauer going the other way, being the definition of resurgence.
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Last season, the Minnesota Twins welcomed the big league debuts of a handful of prospects. From Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to Alex Meyer and Max Kepler, Target Field saw an influx of prospects. In 2016, the anticipation may not be as high as it was for some of those prospects, but it could arguably carry a bigger impact. With some key roles left unfilled thus far in the offseason, it could be internal options that prove the most valuable.
 
A year ago, Eddie Rosario was my proverbial pick to click. Way back in March, he was the guy I dubbed 2015's version of Danny Santana the year before. Even before his impressive spring, Rosario seemed like the guy who would get the early callup and take off running. He did just that.
 
Rosario led the big leagues in triple, he amassed 11 defensive runs saved and picked up 16 outfield assists. While he didn't take walks hardly at all, and swung at what seemed like everything at the plate, Rosario had a very nice first year in the big leagues. Now, Minnesota is ready for a couple of guys to take the torch in the year ahead.
 
Here's who we should see debut in 2015 based upon their arrival dates:
 
Jose Berrios- May
 
At this point, there's nothing left for Berrios to prove in the minor leagues. He followed up a 2.77 ERA in 2014 by owning a 2.87 ERA in 2015. His 9.5 career K/9 is much needed in the Twins rotation and while improving at Triple-A, he actually decreased his walk rate (below 2.0 for the first time since Rookie League). During Spring Training, Berrios should get some significant "prove it" type chances with the Twins. I don't think he immediately heads up north with the club, but he should be there within the first month and a half. Expect him to get at least 20 starts for the Twins in the year ahead.
 
Taylor Rogers- May
 
Few areas on the Twins roster are more up in the air than the bullpen. Last season, it was the Achilles Heel of the team, and fixing it remains a priority in the year ahead. Rogers is one of the most immediate internal options. Although he has worked almost exclusively as a starter in his four MiLB seasons, he projects as a nice left-handed long relief option. Rogers doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but he also limits damage. He followed up a 3.98 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 2015 with an impressive 2.88 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. When the Twins need to call on someone to work relief innings long term early in the season, it should be Rogers name that is called.
 
Nick Burdi- June
 
Something about a bullpen that features Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, and Burdi sounds extremely enticing. Maybe it's that the fourth name mentioned there throws absolute gas. Burdi would become the first Twins pitcher in a while to register triple digits, and he strikes out batters often along the way. In 2015, Burdi ran into some trouble with walks and took his lumps with a demotion. He responded strong in the Arizona Fall League however owning a 12.4 K/9 while walking just 1.1 per nine. A fast start between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Rochester should have him to the big leagues in early summer.
 
J.T. Chargois- July
 
Pitching for the first time since 2012, Chargois finally turned in a healthy season in 2015. He owned a 2.62 ERA in 48.0 IP split between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga. Chargois is a hard thrower as well, and registered a 9.9 K/9 last season. His walk rate (4.7 BB/9) could use some work, but he'll be moved aggressively in the season ahead. Now 25, I would expect to Chargois to get time at Triple-A Rochester before being a middle-of-the-summer option for the Twins. He's another arm that should elevate the overall ability of the Twins pen.
 
Jake Reed- July
 
Bullpens are generally a fickle thing, as is pitching in general. Knowing that the Twins will experience some turnover this season, it's comforting to note all of the strong internal options. Reed likely rounds out the list of top tier pen types. Like Burdi, Reed struggled at points in 2015 but ended on a strong note. He turned in a 1.69 ERA in the fall league, and sat down batters at an 8.4 K/9 clip. Command is the last piece needing to be focused on for him, but Reed should see his debut mid-summer and be a key cog in an improved Twins bullpen.
 
Adam Brett Walker- September
 
Unlike a season ago, hitters making their big league debut for the Twins is somewhat sparse in 2016. With Max Kepler already having made his big league appearance, and Byung Ho Park not being considered a prospect, it's Walker that is the first name on the list. The power for the 24 year-old is no doubt real, he smashed a career high 31 homers a season ago. What is also real, and very scary, is that he strikes out a staggering amount. With 195 strikeouts in 133 games last season, Walker is far from comparisons to Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds or Chris Carter. None of them struck out at the rate he does in the minor leagues, and Walker could push towards 250 strikeouts at the big league level if something doesn't change. Regardless, a similar power output in the year ahead should give him a September call up. A stronger plate discipline will be needed for him to stick.
 
Pat Dean- September
 
Just a bit ago, Major League Baseball held its Rule 5 Draft. The Twins protected lefty Pat Dean from being selected by adding him to the 40 man roster. There's no doubt the club likes him and his 2.82 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 27 starts last year is a good reason why. Dean is 26 and owns just a 5.3 K/9 in his six professional seasons. He also walks no one however, issuing free passes at a 1.7 BB/9 career rate. He's not going to be a high profile roster addition, but in September, he could get a serious look in a bullpen audition role.
 
Mason Melotakis- First One Out
 
This is more speculative than anything, and Melotakis probably has less than a 50% chance of debuting in 2016. He missed all of last season due to injury, but has previously pitched as high as Double-A. Another guy the Twins protected from the Rule 5 Draft, Minnesota sees that Melotakis has some good stuff. In his 16.0 Double-A innings, Mason owned a 2.25 ERA combined with a 9.6 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9. He's almost guaranteed to start no higher than Double-A, and will need to be eased back in. If he puts together a nice 2016 season though, the Twins could give him a cup of coffee look at the end.
 
If 2015 was the year of the offensive prospect, 2016 is going to highlight the pitching prowess of the organization. While Berrios should factor into the rotation nicely, it's the bullpen that will see the most use out of the incoming arms. For a team looking for relief help, it couldn't be better timed. Minnesota is in a position to fix one of their most glaring weaknesses with some very capable internal options. After seeing six debuts in 2015, there's eight above, and that excludes Park. Let the youth movement continue.
 
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Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone with Terry Ryan and the Twins going home empty handed. It wasn't unexpected, albeit a bit frustrating. Regardless, a lot of money was spent the past few days and it got me to thinking. I'm on record saying that Bryce Harper is going to get a $500 million contract. Then it got me to wondering, who's in line for the next Twins payday, and how big will it be?
 
Let's address the elephant in the room first. Yes, the Twins paid Joe Mauer $184 million for eight years of his talents. Yes they were absolutely right in doing so. No, Mauer is not the same player he was, and unfortunately, the value was sapped significantly when Mauer was forced to move from behind the plate. Yes, moving Mauer from catching was the correct and sensible move. No he will never and should never catch again. No, the Twins aren't hamstrung by that contract. No, payroll does not come from attendance or new stadiums, it comes from lucrative TV deals (something the Twins don't have). Yes, Minnesota can afford to spend in the future.
 
Ok, deep breath, I think we covered all of the points of contention there. So now who's next in line for a big cash dump? Let's think a ways ahead here. He's not a free agent until 2022, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2019, but Miguel Sano is going to get paid.
 
To make this exercise a bit more simple for ourselves, let's assume that the Twins don't extend Sano early (though they should look into doing so). By the time Sano hit's free agency in 2022, he will be 29 years old. He'll have played in the big leagues for seven seasons, and likely be established as one of the best power hitters in all of baseball.
 
In looking at what kind of player the Twins may be signing at the age of 29, we need to take into consideration what some of Sano's numbers may look like at that point. In his first 80 games at the major league level, Sano launched 18 homers and drove in 52 runs. On a 162 game basis, that's 36 long balls and 105 runs batted in. Six seasons of that type of production, plus his 2015 performance would have Sano somewhere around 230 homers and 680 runs batted in. Factor in the consideration Sano can be relied upon for 20 plus doubles a year, and an OPS north of .800 and you have a legitimate top five or ten power guy.
 
By means of providing a complete assessment of talent, Sano's fWAR should be considered. In just 80 games during 2015, Sano gave the Twins 2.0 fWAR (a 4.05 mark across 162 games). That number would have been 20th best in the AL in 2015. Also, considering Sano added no value by playing the field, it's an even more impressive mark.
 
Looking at some of the massive contracts given out to power hitters lately, we can try to pencil in a thought process for Sano. At the age of 25, Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins. Averaging 4.15 fWAR thus far in his career, Stanton cashed in. Harper is a few years from free agency, but as mentioned, is likely to get $500 million. He'll be 26, and has averaged 4.85 fWAR thus far in his career. Both of those players are in a tier above Sano, especially considering their defensive value.
 
Trying to find something more comparable, we should probably look a bit higher up the age scale. In fact, we may not need to look any further than this year's free agent class. Enter Chris Davis. The Orioles slugger is on the market at the age of 29 (turning 30 in March). At the moment, Davis has launched 203 homers and driven in 549 runs. He's recorded 168 doubles and owns an .835 career OPS. Essentially, Davis is everything the Twins would hope Sano could be.
 
With that in mind, the talk is that Davis is being floated contracts in the $150 million range. His strikeouts are a problem, but he's shown some positional flexibility playing in the outfield as well as first and third base (sound familiar?).
 
It would seem possible, accounting for inflation, that the Twins offer Sano a seven-year, $170 million contract at the age of 29. The average annual value would check in at $24.3 million (just above Mauer's $23m AAV). Should he exceed his current production, or the market dictate it, I could see the price going up to somewhere around $190-200 million as well. Minnesota would have their superstar locked down until his age 36 season, and would spare itself from the scary cliff that is the years closing in on 40.
 
Right now, Miguel Sano is working on losing some weight and getting used to the outfield. Should things go smoothly for both him and the Twins over the next several seasons, this interesting little exercise could absolutely be the future that awaits the exciting Dominican slugger. Only time will tell.
 
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For the better part of the last six months, the biggest pitching name the Minnesota Twins have been linked to is a starter from the San Diego Padres. After inking Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Ervin Santana to big contracts, it's James Shields that the club has been tied to recently. Looking to shed the contract of Nolasco in a swap for Shields, one has to question whether Shields is anything more than another bad contract and big name.
 
Looking at a potential trade during the 2015 deadline period, the Twins and Padres became linked to one another. San Diego is motivated to shed Shields' deal, as the Twins are with Nolasco. Ricky has thrived in the National League, and is a West Coast guy through and through. There seems to be definite reasons for Nolasco to be excited about the idea. What Shields would bring to the Twins should be cautioned however.
 
While he's known as Big Game James, it's worth noting Shields exorbitant payroll number first. He's owed $21 million in 2016 and can opt out of his deal the following season. If he does not, Shields would be paid $21 million in each 2017 and 2018, with a $16 million team option in 2019 (with a $2 million buyout). That equates to at least $65 million over the next four seasons (when Shields would be 37), with the potential to cost up to $79 million. By that representation, the $24 million Minnesota owes Nolasco over the next two season, seems like peanuts.
 
So why would the Twins and Terry Ryan believe this deal is of benefit to them?
 
As things stand currently, Ricky Nolasco has given the Twins just 35 starts over the past two seasons. He pitched in just nine games in 2015, and owns a 5.64 ERA in his time with the Twins. His 4.15 FIP suggests he's been better than that number suggests, but his 6.9 K/9 mark is below his career average, and pitching in the American League hasn't done him any favors. Though Nolasco did have a good stretch before getting injured yet again in 2015, he's been put on the backburner and doesn't appear to have a place in the 2016 rotation.
 
The interesting wrinkle to any potential trade is that James Shields doesn't seem to be a perfect fit for the Twins rotation either.
 
Last season in San Diego, Shields owned a 3.91 ERA that was hiding a career worst 4.45 FIP. His strikeout totals hit a career mark at 9.6 K/9, but so did his walks (3.6 BB/9). He led the big leagues in home runs surrendered, and while he did pitch 202.1 innings, it was his lowest total since his debut season in 2006.
 
That's the bad when it comes to Shields, but there's also some good to be had there. Just a season removed from pitching in the AL Central with the Royals, Shields owned a 3.18 ERA during his time in Kansas City. He struck out batters at a 7.4 K/9 clip and averaged 228 Ip per year. His 2.2 BB/9 mark was lower than his career average, and his 3.53 FIP was much better than what happened in San Diego.
 
In acquiring Shields, the Twins would need to make decisions on how they would like to attack the 2016 season. First of all, Shields is not exactly a ground ball pitcher. He gave up fly balls on 34% of the balls put in play against him a season ago. With Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler in the outfield that may not be a problem. Having Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia out there could make it catastrophic.
 
Then there's the issue of rotation construction. Right now, the Twins should go with a starting five of Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, and Tommy Milone. That leaves Trevor May to be an asset in the bullpen, and Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Logan Darnell all as depth options. Shields would likely bump Milone from the group, but he isn't a guy that fits in the pen, and he's wasted down on the farm. Ideally, you want quality arms over quantity in depth, but this configuration would put Berrios in an uphill battle to push anyone out barring injury.
 
As things stand, the Winter Meetings are going to bring more clarity to the situation. Much like the trade deadline rumblings between the Twins and Padres, everything could go up in smoke. If the two teams are willing to swap bad contracts, that's one thing. If San Diego is asking for prospects in return, taking on that salary risk may make it less than worthwhile.
 
Shields is an upgrade over even a healthy Nolasco, but there's plenty of scary outcomes that lie ahead. If Minnesota loses prospects and Shields walks, it hurts. Should Shields fall off and play out the remaining dollars, that stings as well. Regardless, it's a tread with caution scenario that may have no win in sight.
 
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More often than not, the Minnesota Twins don't take the stage front and center when the audience becomes national. As a small market club, the organization is more noticed for being the underdog story it was during the 2015 season. However, with the Twins signing of Byung Ho Park, this offseason has provided a handful of fireworks already.
 
Looking to get more of a national perspective on the state of the Twins, and where the belief the the organization is going, I had the privilege of speaking with Chris Cotillo. Cotillo covers Major League Baseball over at SB Nation's MLB Daily Dish. He's a Lead Writer there, and is often noticed breaking stories all around the league.
 
Gaining momentum as a national source after breaking the Ricky Nolasco signing, Cotillo has a special tie to the Twins. Here's how he see the organization now and going forward:
 
Off The Baggy: Last season, the Twins were one of the most surprising teams in all of baseball. With the production and season they had, what surprised you most about the team in Paul Molitor's first year?
Chris Cotillo: I think everyone who covers baseball was surprised to see them hang in until the end like they did. They really showed a great mix of veteran leadership (Hunter, Mauer) and young talent (Sano) and overcame significant adversity (Santana suspension) along the way.
OTB: With a farm system ready to overflow, the Twins should have plenty of top tier youth contributing at the big league level this season. What do you think are some realistic expectations for Byron Buxton in the season ahead?
 
CC: Buxton has taken a backseat to many other young stars around the game, but I think it's time for a breakout campaign from him. Center field is his now after the Twins traded Hicks, so I expect him to be an everyday star there who can show his five-tool abilities in a prolonged major-league stint. It's tough to predict stats for someone who does so many things well, but I have high expectations.
OTB: In somewhat of a surprising move, the Twins ended up winning the bid for Korean slugger, Byung Ho Park. What do you see Park contributing during his first year in the big leagues?
 
CC: Pretty much everyone was surprised by that move, and it will definitely set off a chain reaction of moving parts involving Mauer, Plouffe and Sano. Park will provide some pop in the middle of the order at a time where right-handed power is at a premium.
OTB: Looking at the free agent market, the Twins biggest offseason deficiencies were behind the plate and in the bullpen. They traded for John Ryan Murphy to fix their catching woes, but do you see them making any signings the rest of the way? If so, some names to watch?
 
CC: I could see a couple of bullpen additions for sure. There are tons of second-tier relievers out there behind O'Day-- Soria, Kelley, Lowe, Badenhop, Hunter, Madson among them.
OTB: Speaking of John Ryan Murphy, what is your take on the Aaron Hicks trade? Classic swap of two players better fit in their new situation, or did the Twins give up on Hicks just as he was about to get going?
 
CC: I really like the trade for both sides, it is the classic change-of-scenery deal. Murphy was obviously blocked by McCann in New York, and as I said before, it's Buxton time in Minnesota. Hicks may break out and be a long-term option for the Yankees in center, but Twins fans will have to look back and remember that this trade truly did make sense at the time.
OTB: Minnesota no doubt has playoff aspirations in 2016 after the season they just had. An increased level of talent should be on the 25 man throughout the season, but what one thing needs to improve for them to get back to the Postseason?
 
CC: For me, the rotation is a little bit scary. If they are going to be serious about a postseason run next season, I would like for them to trade from that deep farm system and get a bona fide ace.
 
While Cotillo is just one of the many national writers covering the game as a whole, the Twins have pushed the envelope and are begging to be noticed. After a strong 2015 and an aggressive start to the offseason, 2016 should continue that trend in a big way.
 
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Whether you're new here or not, a quick glance at a handful of the articles at Off The Baggy should give you a glimpse of what I'm about. Not a full blown sabermetrician, I find myself using statistics to tell a big story more often than not. In this post however, there's very little reason for numbers to quantify anything. With what the Twins gave us in 2015, and where they appear headed, there's plenty of obvious reasons for thanks.
 
Following four dismal 90 loss seasons, the Twins turned things around big time under first year manager Paul Molitor. Posting their first winning seasons since 2012, September was fun again in Twins Territory. While the playoffs ended up being out of the picture, there wasn't a game that wasn't much watch down the stretch. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Over the summer, Terry Ryan, Molitor, and the Twins brain trust introduced fans to names they had only heard of at the minor league levels. Alex Meyer, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano all made their big league debuts. Eddie Rosario shined in 2015, and Max Kepler was even there at the end. Getting contributions from players like Tyler Duffey was only icing on the cake. Turning the franchise around will happen on the backs of the emerging talent, and the season provided plenty of glimpses of that. For that, we can give thanks.
 
On top of turning a page in the record column, the Twins did so by improving across the board. What has been arguably the worst stretch in team history, Minnesota made pitching a relative strength in 2015. Although the bullpen still struggled and the strikeout numbers weren't anywhere to be seen, depth emerged for the first time in a while. Monitor will have at least eight options to consider when filling out his 2016 rotation, and bullpen spots could be claimed by some hard throwing prospects. Pushing the needle further in the year ahead is going to start on the mound, and Minnesota has some answers. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Though young, the offseason has provided plenty of excitement for the Twins. Starting with the out-of-nowhere bid for Byung-Ho Park, and stretching to the acquisition of catcher John Ryan Murphy, Terry Ryan has not stayed put. Park gives the Twins another legitimate middle-of-the-order power bat, and Murphy has the ability to be a long term answer behind the plate. Expect more moves to be coming, but Minnesota hit the ground running this offseason. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Looking at what has taken place, and what can be expected, the Twins should be in a much more predictable place entering 2016. Although previous seasons have been predictable, it's been for all of the wrong reasons. The 2016 version of the Twins won't finish last in the division, and they have a very strong chance to push for a playoff spot. In having areas of improvement targeted, and coming off a big step forward, it's playoffs or bust in the year ahead. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Then there's you. Stepping away from the on the field action, there's no doubt I'm thankful for you, my readers. I enjoy doing this, it isn't a job for me, and it's a hobby turned into so much more. Whether you follow me on Twitter, or read here at Off The Baggy, it's you that makes covering this team so much more fun. For all of the interaction, debates, questions, and tweets, I thank you!
 
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, give thanks for baseball, the Twins, and for all you have going in your life!
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Whether you're new here or not, a quick glance at a handful of the articles at Off The Baggy should give you a glimpse of what I'm about. Not a full blown sabermetrician, I find myself using statistics to tell a big story more often than not. In this post however, there's very little reason for numbers to quantify anything. With what the Twins gave us in 2015, and where they appear headed, there's plenty of obvious reasons for thanks.
 
Following four dismal 90 loss seasons, the Twins turned things around big time under first year manager Paul Molitor. Posting their first winning seasons since 2012, September was fun again in Twins Territory. While the playoffs ended up being out of the picture, there wasn't a game that wasn't much watch down the stretch. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Over the summer, Terry Ryan, Molitor, and the Twins brain trust introduced fans to names they had only heard of at the minor league levels. Alex Meyer, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano all made their big league debuts. Eddie Rosario shined in 2015, and Max Kepler was even there at the end. Getting contributions from players like Tyler Duffey was only icing on the cake. Turning the franchise around will happen on the backs of the emerging talent, and the season provided plenty of glimpses of that. For that, we can give thanks.
 
On top of turning a page in the record column, the Twins did so by improving across the board. What has been arguably the worst stretch in team history, Minnesota made pitching a relative strength in 2015. Although the bullpen still struggled and the strikeout numbers weren't anywhere to be seen, depth emerged for the first time in a while. Monitor will have at least eight options to consider when filling out his 2016 rotation, and bullpen spots could be claimed by some hard throwing prospects. Pushing the needle further in the year ahead is going to start on the mound, and Minnesota has some answers. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Though young, the offseason has provided plenty of excitement for the Twins. Starting with the out-of-nowhere bid for Byung-Ho Park, and stretching to the acquisition of catcher John Ryan Murphy, Terry Ryan has not stayed put. Park gives the Twins another legitimate middle-of-the-order power bat, and Murphy has the ability to be a long term answer behind the plate. Expect more moves to be coming, but Minnesota hit the ground running this offseason. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Looking at what has taken place, and what can be expected, the Twins should be in a much more predictable place entering 2016. Although previous seasons have been predictable, it's been for all of the wrong reasons. The 2016 version of the Twins won't finish last in the division, and they have a very strong chance to push for a playoff spot. In having areas of improvement targeted, and coming off a big step forward, it's playoffs or bust in the year ahead. For that, we can give thanks.
 
Then there's you. Stepping away from the on the field action, there's no doubt I'm thankful for you, my readers. I enjoy doing this, it isn't a job for me, and it's a hobby turned into so much more. Whether you follow me on Twitter, or read here at Off The Baggy, it's you that makes covering this team so much more fun. For all of the interaction, debates, questions, and tweets, I thank you!
 
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, give thanks for baseball, the Twins, and for all you have going in your life!
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Back in October, I wrote about the Twins and their seven players headed to the Arizona Fall League. The focus was on what each of them needed to improve or work on over the next two months, and how they could end 2015 on a high note. Over the weekend, each of them became Arizona Fall League champs, and it was because of their success that the title was claimed.
 
As I tweeted out over the weekend, baseball is no doubt a team sport, however it was the Twins group that carried this team during the title game. Taylor Rogers got the start and went 3.0 scoreless, striking out two and picking up the win. Adam Brett Walker drove in three of Scottsdale's six runs, and the game was closed out by both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. To put it mildly, the Twins stars shined over the weekend.
 
Looking back at the Fall League as a whole, the majority of the Twins prospects did themselves some considerable favors. Starting with the two guys who have now won back-to-back AFL titles, Rogers and Reed, 2016 is shaping up to be a great year.
 
Rogers was second in the Twins minors leagues in innings pitched this past year. He's a lefty who has good command and looked impressive for most of the Triple-A season. He established himself as Scottsdale's ace in the AFL and his 2.88 ERA and 21 strikeouts across six starts was a very good way to end the year. He may begin the season with Rochester, but he's a definite bet to contribute for the Twins in the year ahead, likely out of the bullpen.
 
After an impressive showing a season ago, Reed improved in his second AFL stint. Pitching in 10 games, the former Oregon Duck surrendered zero earned runs. He threw 10.2 IP giving up just six hits while striking out ten and walking just four. If the Twins are going to improve their bullpen in 2016, giving Reed a shot at some point would seem to be a good idea.
 
Staying with the bullpen, Nick Burdi was equally impressive in the Fall League. He gave up his lone run on a solo homer in the title game, but was lights out otherwise. Burdi was an inclusion in the Fall Stars game, and his command was impeccable owning an 11/1 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. Trevor Hildenberger also did some really nice work in relief this fall. His 12.2 IP were second highest for Scottsdale in relief. He owned a 2.13 ERA and struck out 12 while walking none. Although he played at Fort Myers a season ago, the strong showing against superior talent bodes well for his 2016 trajectory.
 
Then there's the offensive side of things. Starting anywhere but with Adam Brett Walker would be misguided. His Fall was very similar to the rest of his 2015, very mixed. While he was also the hero in the title game, it was his strikeout numbers that continue to cause reason for pause. His final slash line rested at .240/.326/.493 with five homers and 18 RBI. The issue though is that the strikeout week actually got worse. In Double-A this year, Walker averaged 1.65 K per hit, 1.47 per game, and 6.29 per home run. In AFL action, he averaged 1.94 per hit, 1.75 per game, and 7.0 per home run. Those numbers are going to determine whether or not he can contribute at the next level.
 
It's almost a certainty that Walker starts 2016 at Triple-A, and as a top 10 Twins prospect, Minnesota wants to see him succeed. However, he is not going to be a viable contributor at the big league level based on power alone. He's well behind the likes of Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn in their minor league careers. In the year ahead, it's about making more contact, working on plate discipline, and reducing the ugly strikeout numbers.
 
Rounding out the offensive grouping for the Twins in the fall are two catchers who had vastly different results. Stuart Turner continued along the path of being a defensive guru who can't hit. He slashed a Scottsdale worst .171/.306/.220 and totaled just two extra base hits in 12 games. The Twins still have significant reason to hold out hope (lack of catching depth being one of them), but Turner needs to hit in the year ahead.
 
On the other hand, Mitch Garver shunned his regular season numbers by having an impressive fall campaign. The backstop slashed .317/.404/.512 across 12 games and cranked out five doubles and a homer. He handled the bat well in 2014 before taking a step backwards this past year. If the fall production can carry over into 2016, Garver could vault himself up the ladder and into the Twins plans sooner rather than later.
 
As a whole, the Twins deep farm system was extremely impressive during action down in Arizona. It was pitching that owned the season, but the group set itself apart. Knowing that the big league club is getting ready to turn the corner, a couple of these contributors should be expected to be front and center in the revolution.
 
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Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the front office's cry for calm prior to the season, the inevitable reality that the talent just wasn't there came to fruition. Once Glen Perkins broke down in the second half, the lone bright spot was now gone. In 2016, the goal will be to change the course, and it's possible two of the best additions may currently be pitching in Arizona.
 
For what the Twins have in pitching depth throughout their organization, there's also some key contributors who should be very close to their big league debut. Both drafted early in the 2014 draft, Jake Reed and Nicky Burdi are taking the Arizona Fall League by storm.
 
A month or so ago, I wrote a primer on what the focus needed to be for each of the Twins inclusions in the Fall League. For Burdi, the focus was no doubt going to be on his command, in that piece I said, "Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League." Often connected due to their path and pedigree, I touched on Reed as well. In talking about the former Duck I said, "Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up." We now find ourselves at a point of evaluation.
 
With just four games left in Arizona Fall League action, both Burdi and Reed have the bulk of their action behind them. To show for it, each pitcher has been nothing short of spectacular. For Burdi, he's pitched 7.0 innings allowing just two hits and zero runs while striking out nine and walking none. Reed has followed suit going 8.1 IP surrendering just four hits, no earned runs, and owning an 8/3 K/BB rate. In the ERA column, both pitchers have a flawless mark.
 
It's probably a certainty that the Twins will look through the free agency market and trade offerings for options to improve upon the pen. For both Burdi and Reed however, it looks as though they once again should have a very strong possibility of surfacing, and contributing, for the Twins this upcoming season.
 
During the fall, Burdi has regularly pushed the radar gun into the triple digits. He's notched 1-2-3 innings, and he's struck out sides. Reed has picked up saves, he's been used in high leverage situations, and he's gotten some very strong hitters out. Against competition that would rank among the best either player has seen on a consistent basis, both Twins prospects have excelled considerably.
 
With turnover needing to happen for Paul Molitor's relief help, a decision to go younger may not be a bad idea at all. Although both Reed and Burdi will need to continue the success out of the gate in the upcoming season, they should (and likely will) be given some time during big league spring training. If both players can show that the Fall League is what should be expected, and the hiccups of 2015 were just that, Molitor may have two really good arms ready to make a splash.
 
Affiliated during the Fall League with the Twins, Scottsdale owns a league best record and is in position to take the title. Helping them to get there no doubt has been both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The next contribution they make could come at a much higher level.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the front office's cry for calm prior to the season, the inevitable reality that the talent just wasn't there came to fruition. Once Glen Perkins broke down in the second half, the lone bright spot was now gone. In 2016, the goal will be to change the course, and it's possible two of the best additions may currently be pitching in Arizona.
 
For what the Twins have in pitching depth throughout their organization, there's also some key contributors who should be very close to their big league debut. Both drafted early in the 2014 draft, Jake Reed and Nicky Burdi are taking the Arizona Fall League by storm.
 
A month or so ago, I wrote a primer on what the focus needed to be for each of the Twins inclusions in the Fall League. For Burdi, the focus was no doubt going to be on his command, in that piece I said, "Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League." Often connected due to their path and pedigree, I touched on Reed as well. In talking about the former Duck I said, "Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up." We now find ourselves at a point of evaluation.
 
With just four games left in Arizona Fall League action, both Burdi and Reed have the bulk of their action behind them. To show for it, each pitcher has been nothing short of spectacular. For Burdi, he's pitched 7.0 innings allowing just two hits and zero runs while striking out nine and walking none. Reed has followed suit going 8.1 IP surrendering just four hits, no earned runs, and owning an 8/3 K/BB rate. In the ERA column, both pitchers have a flawless mark.
 
It's probably a certainty that the Twins will look through the free agency market and trade offerings for options to improve upon the pen. For both Burdi and Reed however, it looks as though they once again should have a very strong possibility of surfacing, and contributing, for the Twins this upcoming season.
 
During the fall, Burdi has regularly pushed the radar gun into the triple digits. He's notched 1-2-3 innings, and he's struck out sides. Reed has picked up saves, he's been used in high leverage situations, and he's gotten some very strong hitters out. Against competition that would rank among the best either player has seen on a consistent basis, both Twins prospects have excelled considerably.
 
With turnover needing to happen for Paul Molitor's relief help, a decision to go younger may not be a bad idea at all. Although both Reed and Burdi will need to continue the success out of the gate in the upcoming season, they should (and likely will) be given some time during big league spring training. If both players can show that the Fall League is what should be expected, and the hiccups of 2015 were just that, Molitor may have two really good arms ready to make a splash.
 
Affiliated during the Fall League with the Twins, Scottsdale owns a league best record and is in position to take the title. Helping them to get there no doubt has been both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The next contribution they make could come at a much higher level.
 
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The day after the World Series comes to a close may be one of the saddest in baseball. With the realization that the offseason has officially commenced, it's time to buckle in for the winter. For the Twins, 2016 represents that start of what should be a renewed run of playoff contention. To accomplish that, modeling after both World Series teams seems to be a good starting place.
 
In taking a top down view at both the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals, both teams have relatively apparent strengths. For the Mets, it was no doubt a pitching staff of fireballers that could all be regarded as true aces. From Harvey to Syndergaard, and those in between, the Mets don't miss a beat. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year isn't their number one, and Zack Wheeler didn't factor in at all during 2015. It's safe to say the Mets are plenty strong in the pitching department.
 
Then you have the Royals, and their foundation built on creating havoc and sustaining leads. A lineup full of guys that simply put the ball in play, backed by a bullpen that doesn't surrender runs. While Ned Yost isn't always the cleanest in his execution, it's the combination of putting pressure on the opposition while breathing easy with a lead that makes his club dangerous.
 
For Minnesota, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have yet to accomplish either of those teams qualities thus far. There's no doubt the Twins lineup has been given a boost with the emergence of young stars, but the fact remains that there are some significant holes. On the mound, both starting pitching and relief work pales in comparison to the World Series finalists.
 
A rotation composes more a good-not-great types, the Twins don't project to be like the Mets on the bump any time soon. Owning one of the worst bullpens in baseball this past season, Minnesota knew a lead was never safe. Despite a strong first half from closer Glen Perkins, there were apparent deficiencies from the get go. For the Twins to turn the corner, taking bits and pieces from the two November squads would be a good start.
 
Looking at what the Twins should have in the rotation to start 2016, not much will change. Jose Berrios or Trevor May could be added into the grouping, but at least from the start, a true ace doesn't appear to be on the horizon. While every team would love to have a go-to number one, Minnesota has to look no further than the Royals to see that isn't necessary. Getting quality outings on a nightly basis to keep you in games is much more sustainable. Fixing the bullpen makes that strategy much more workable.
 
In trying to copy the offensive production of both squads, ironing out a more complete lineup has to be a goal. Working around the inclusion of players that can't advance the order, Paul Molitor would have plenty more tools to work with. The Royals created runs on the basepaths, and by protecting the zone. The Mets took the approach of the longball, and working counts. While no doubt Kansas City's plan of attack is more sustainable, both approaches (with complete lineups), should produce positive results.
 
At this point, the Twins can effectively rule out being either the Royals or the Mets. What they can do however, is focus on what they do and don't want to emulate. Building a stronger bullpen, while filling out a complete lineup is a good start. Having a more advanced defense than New York, it's not out of line to suggest the Twins can put together something plenty special on their own.
 
Only two teams advance to the series that matters most each year, but in watching it unfold, the Twins can make the necessary tweaks to draw much more even.
 
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Last night, Torii Hunter decided to officially hang up his cleats after 19 seasons playing Major League Baseball. Having spent the majority of his career with the Twins, the fan favorite no doubt will go down as one of the most celebrated Minnesota sports figures ever. What he should not do though is see his number hung from the rafters (er above Barrio in left field). Instead, his next stop should be the mound for a ceremonial first pitch.
 
There's little denying that Torii Hunter gave both the Minnesota Twins and the game of baseball a significant amount of lift. He was a nine-time Gold Glove award winner, he went to four All Star games, and he won two Silver Sluggers in his career. The Arkansas native belted 353 career home runs, tallied 2,452 hits, and drove in 1,391 runs. By all measurable standards it was a great career.
 
That also presents the issue for Hunter in regards to retiring number 48. It was great, but not exceptional.
As things stand currently, the Minnesota Twins have retired just seven numbers. Those include Kirby Puckett, Harmon Killebrew, Kent Hrbek, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Tom Kelly, and Bert Blyleven. Four of those players are in the Hall of Fame, one is an eight-time All Star, another is a two-time World Series manager, and the final is somewhat of a by-product of being a hometown hero. So, where does Torii fit among that grouping?
 
In terms of statistical quantification, Hunter has compiled a career 41.6 fWAR. That number is higher than only Tony Oliva (40.7 fWAR) and Kent Hrbek (37.6 fWAR). It trails significantly behind Kirby Puckett (66.1 fWAR), Rod Carew (72.3 fWAR), and Bert Blyleven (102.9). Hunter's best season by fWAR standards came in 2012 (with the Angels) when he posted a 5.2 mark. On a per season basis, he's averaged just 2.19 fWAR. To put that into context, Eddie Rosario posted a 2.3 fWAR for the Twins in 2013.
 
When deciding whether or not to retire Hunter's number, it's probably less about the numbers than the other factors surrounding it. Looking back on his career, you'd be hard pressed to argue that Hunter's value across Twins Territory was not first and foremost felt through an emotional attachment. He was fun to watch, played the game the right way, and got it done. As noted above though, he was great, but not exceptional. Allowing him in the club opens up a difficult door.
 
Looking back at some of the teams Torii was best known for, there's two other names that would seem to be in his class. Both Brad Radke and Joe Nathan could have a similar claim to make should Hunter's jersey be no more. Radke owned a 38.7 fWAR despite being a pitcher and playing for only 12 seasons (he also was with the Twins for all of them). While Nathan can't be quantified through WAR, his Twins record saves total comes full circle.
 
In total, the suggestion is far from Torii Hunter not being celebrated, he absolutely should. However, he should not be revered, and the honor of a number no longer being available should remain a sacred right of passage. Hunter has my vote to throw out the first pitch on Opening Day 2016, but leave the jersey retiring to those who achieved more.
 
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For Twins fans, this is a position that Minnesota has not been in for quite some time. Experiencing a starting rotation drought that had the Twins five at the bottom of baseball for years, a new wave is being ushered in. Now with depth, and improved quality on the mound, Paul Molitor has some tough choices to make going into 2016. However, with more arms than openings, it may be time to consider a more aggressive quality over quantity approach.
 
As always, there's five openings in the starting rotation. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson are absolutely locked in for three of them. That leaves a slew of arms including Ricky Nolasco, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, and even Alex Meyer to fight over the final two spots. While not all of those options are ideal, a handful of them are. That said, Minnesota could opt to make an aggressive move that may pay dividends both now and into the future.
 
Formerly a first round draft pick back in 2009, Minnesota selected Kyle Gibson out of the University of Missouri. As a college pitcher, he was expected to accelerate through the farm quickly. Tommy John surgery derailed the debut somewhat, but he surfaced at the age of 25 in 2013. Now 73 big league games under his belt, Gibson turned in a 2015 worthy of turning some heads.
 
In 32 starts, Gibson owned a 3.84 ERA. It was backed by a 3.96 FIP and a 1.289 WHIP. His 6.7 K/9 mark was a career best and his 3.0 BB/9 tally was in line with his past totals. Gibson also allowed a career low 8.6 H/9 and was virtually one start away from compiling his first 200 inning season. By all standard statistics, Kyle Gibson's 2015 was a breakout year.
 
Then there's the advanced statistics. They tell a very similar story. Over the past year, Gibson allowed hard contact on just 27.3% of his pitches, in line with his career totals. He also generated ground balls on over 53% of his pitches put into play. While he gave up more home runs than at any other point in his major league career, that may have been his lone blemish. Gibson's 35.7% out-of-zone swings were a career high, and he pushed his swinging strike percentage to 9.8 (also a career best).
 
So why then would the Twins look to trade a young pitcher at the top of his game? The answer is two fold, and not necessarily cut and dry.
 
First and foremost, Kyle Gibson is not nearly as young as you'd believe. 28 years old on October 23rd, Gibson is most definitely a late bloomer. While he is under team control until 2020, and doesn't hit arbitration until 2017, the expectation should be that his prime could be somewhat muted. As much as team control is an asset to the Twins, it is also a commodity to a trade partner in any scenario as well.
 
Then things circle back to the idea of the rotation construction for the Twins. At his best, Gibson may be a number two starter, but more likely is a three or four. Minnesota is in a position to begin a window of competitiveness for years to come. The rotation is currently comprised of arms that would likely top out as a number two starter at best. Moving Gibson could clear the way for that to change.
 
Both May or Berrios could immediately pick up Gibson's slack, and may have higher ceilings. Any move that would send Gibson away from the Twins would also need to command quite a return. Taking on a veteran, or a higher ceiling prospect with front of the rotation stuff could be something that would move the needle for Terry Ryan.
 
While a significant longshot, and something I myself am not even convinced I would entertain, there's definite reason to explore what the return for Kyle Gibson would look like. With the Twins entering a time where they should again be good, raising their own floor through higher ceiling acquisitions needs to be a part of the strategy. Whether Gibson is a part of the Twins future or not, his potential to help Minnesota could come on the mound just as likely as it could come off of it.
 
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After the season the Minnesota Twins just had, it's hard not to get excited about what's to come in 2016. For an organization that has lost 90 games each of the past four seasons, a winning year and Wild Card run was much needed. Now, the way in which Terry Ryan attacks the offseason will help to lay the blueprint for what's ahead.
 
Today, MLB Trade Rumors rolled out their offseason outlook for the Twins (go read it, it's very good). After author Steve Adams appeared way off base on the Twins going into the season, he couldn't have repeatedly hit the proverbial nail on the head more often than he did in his outlook. The Twins find themselves at an interesting crossroads. Somewhere in the middle of hoarding prospects and making monumental moves, the organization has some big decisions to make.
 
On the pitching side of things, the Twins have much more quantity than they have quality. That isn't to say the rotation isn't in a better place than it has been in years, but there is a solid group of three and four starter types. Lacking a clear ace, an upgrade would only make sense if it's of the top tier variety.
 
In the bullpen, that isn't the case at all. With relief pitching being a problem area throughout 2015, the Twins absolutely have to add some quality arms. Another year of Kevin Jepsen will help, and graduating some of the Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and Jake Reed group will also, but Minnesota will need more. Bringing in at least one more reliever is going to be a must.
 
On the offensive side of things, the Twins have more logjams than anything. Trevor Plouffe hamstrung by a top prospect and a deteriorating first basemen. Oswaldo Arcia is out of options, and Torii Hunter may end up undeservedly stealing a roster spot. There's little arguing against that the Twins have more bodies than they have positions to fill.
 
That brings us to the crux of the offseason, the splash the Twins should be looking at making. After competing ahead of schedule, and before getting contributions from some top notch prospects, Minnesota is probably closer than many would have imagined. Banking in on that and running with the success would be a well placed plan for Molitor's squad.
 
A splash should come in the form of a very active offseason. Whether by way of trade or free agency acquisitions, the Twins need to push for quality, while taking hits in the quantity department. MLB Trade Rumors looked at Jose Reyes as a trade target at short (I don't love that), Jordan Zimmerman in the rotation (that would be a fit), and maybe a Matt Wieters, Austin Hedges, Mike Zunino, or A.J. Pierzynski addition behind the plate (I could get behind that). All of those moves would get the ball rolling for heightened expectations in the year ahead.
 
There's no denying the Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball. With that, they have a handful of prospects that may be best served in getting the big league club where it needs to be. Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, Kohl Stewart, and maybe even a Stephen Gonsalves type are all players that could be best utilized by Minnesota in upgrading their current roster. While the talent for those players would be missed, waiting on them to contribute at the highest level may not be the best strategy.
 
As I noted prior to the end of the season, Terry Ryan has proved adept in the trade market over the past two seasons, and that bodes will for this winter. There's no denying that the Twins can't afford to stand pat though, and making bold moves should be something that the organization explores.
 
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In 2015, the Minnesota Twins exceeding expectations by an immense amount. Expected by man to once again finish at the bottom of the AL Central and hope to stave off 90 losses, first year manager Paul Molitor had his club doing anything but. While ultimately the club came up just shorty of the playoffs, it was a season of much more good than bad.
 
Going into 2016, the year in which the Twins should begin to be a serious contender once again, understanding who contributed most is important. Taking a look at the roster, it's time for you 2015 grades to be handed out. Sticking mostly to 25 man roster guys (with a few exceptions), here we go:
 
Catchers:
 
Kurt Suzuki (C-)
 
Suzuki headed into 2015 fresh off of a stellar 2014 season. An All Star and recipient of a shiny contract extension, the bar needed to be reached was set incredibly high. Unfortunately, Suzuki reverted back to what he's been in the big leagues, a run of the mill veteran catcher. Owning a -0.1 fWAR on the season, Suzuki was a defensive liability (throwing out an MLB worst 15% of base stealers), and he did little at the plate. He'll be back in 2016, but he has some serious improvement to work on.
 
Chris Herrmann (D)
 
It's hard to fault a guy like Herrmann for being on a big league roster. He doesn't belong there, and it's indicative of the Twins catching issue. He isn't anything special behind the plate, and his .146/.214/.272 slash line across 45 games was pathetic. Crazy enough, he produced a higher fWAR (0.1) than Kurt Suzuki in 2015.
 
First Base
 
Joe Mauer ©
 
If you've yet to gather it yet, a C is being used as the middle ground, and that's exactly where Joe Mauer was in 2015. Owning a 0.3 fWAR, he was just above replacement level for the 2015 Twins. The power numbers were up, but everything else was down, and he's here to stay. Forget the contract (it doesn't matter at this point), Minnesota needs Mauer to replicate his success with RISP across a few more situations in 2016. His .309 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the lowest of his career, but his 29.2 hard hit percentage is probably a large part of the culprit there.
 
Second Base
 
Brian Dozier (B+)
 
While we've reached into the B tier for the first time, this grade should have been even higher. Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate on the way to his first All Star game, and then the second half came. For the second year in a row, he's collapsed down the stretch, and it was a massive detriment to the Twins playoff hopes. In total though, Dozier owned a 3.4 fWAR and his 28 homers were a new career high. 2016 needs to be a more consistent and full season from Dozier if the Twins are going to make October noise.
 
Shortstop
 
Eduardo Escobar (
 
The Twins had faith in Danny Santana despite him being primed for regression. When everything hit the fan in the field, Escobar was there to pick things up. He carried the club offensively in September, and made any notion of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly. Earning the spot for the foreseeable future, Escobar compiled a 1.5 fWAR in just 127 games. No longer just a utility man, the Twins continue to cash in on Francisco Liriano's return.
 
Eduardno Nunez (C+)
 
A guy that could have been a DFA candidate prior to the season, Nunez actually came up big for the Twins. Providing positional flexibility, he also brought the lumber more often than not. In limited at bats, he hit .282/.327/.431 with four homers. His 1.1 fWAR was among the Twins leaders, and his inexpensive contract made it all the more enticing.
 
Third Base
 
Trevor Plouffe (
 
For the second season in a row, Plouffe has improved as a whole. Likely a late-peaking player, Plouffe should be in line for a new contract this offseason. Whether or not the sides can come to a deal would seem another story. Plouffe followed up his 3.6 fWAR 2014 with a 2.5 fWAR this season. He set career highs in games, runs, RBI, and hits. Another solid season for a player the Twins once viewed as reaching the end of his rope.
 
Miguel Sano (A-)
 
Somewhat out of whack by playing only a portion of the year, it's hard to overvalue the production that the slugger gave the Twins. 2.0 fWAR, 18 homers, and 52 RBI in just 80 games, a full season would have been unreal. The strikeout numbers are likely going to set a Twins record (possibly as soon as next season), but his hard hit rate (43.2%) makes him incredibly dangerous each time he steps in the box. Whether he DH's for the next couple of years or not, Sano is already an incredible asset in Minnesota.
 
Outfield
 
Aaron Hicks (B-)
 
Making a monumental leap forward (as I'd suggested he would), Hicks became a regular for the Twins this season. Figuring things out at the plate, and continuing to be a defensive stud, he produced a 1.5 fWAR. Hicks will likely move to right field when Byron Buxton is ready to take over full time, but his outlook for the future has shifted. Once seeming like a lost cause, it would now appear he could be a legitimate 20-20 guy.
 
Eddie Rosario (B+)
 
With the other big names making debuts for the Twins in 2015, Rosario tends to get lost in the crowd. However, he put together a season worthy of ROY consideration on his own. His 2.3 fWAR was earned through his ridiculous defensive ability in left (both assists and DRS ranking among MLB's best), and his free swinging tendency. On base issues are still there, and he's going to need to strike out less in the future, but it was a great start for the Puerto Rican.
 
Torii Hunter (C+)
 
Hunter's grade is somewhat difficult to quantify for the Twins. He provided an immeasurable asset in the clubhouse, but was relatively mediocre on the diamond. His power played at times, but his dismal August was unfortunate. He picked things up in September, but there's no denying he was a defensive liability throughout the season. Hunter will be welcomed back by the Twins in 2016 if he wants in; I'm not sure he should be.
 
Byron Buxton (C-)
 
In his first 46 games at the big league level, Buxton was actually worht -0.5 fWAR. Coming almost entirely from his struggles at the plate, this season was more about growth than anything for Buxton. Now with an offseason to prepare for what he saw, expect 2016 to showcase more of the elite tools we've heard about. Showing off plus defense, and a better approach to conclude the season, Buxton's future remains bright.
 
Shane Robinson ©
 
Brought in as a fourth outfielder prior to some of the farm graduations taking place, Robinson absolutely did his job this season. He provided the Twins with outfield depth, and even hit for the first few months. He played above replacement level (0.2 fWAR) and was exactly what Minnesota expected of him.
 
Rotation
 
Phil Hughes (C+)
 
After an impressive first season with the Twins, Hughes was bound to take steps backwards this season. He continued to walk no one, but he also struck out batters at a much slower clip. Allowing what was trending towards (if not for DL time) a career high in home runs given up, Hughes has plenty to work on in the year ahead.
 
Ervin Santana (A-)
 
The suspension shot Santana's season down before it began, but once he was back on track, the Twins big payday looked great. Spare a couple rocky starts early, it was Santana down the stretch that looked every bit the part of an ace. Striking out batters at an impressive clip, while owning a sub 3.00 ERA across his final handful of starts, the Twins have to be excited about the top of their rotation in 2016.
 
Tyler Duffey (A)
 
After being tagged by the best offense in baseball, Duffey looked like a major league vet. He was striking batters out, he wasn't allowing runs, and his curveball was confusing major league hitters. Forcing himself into the rotation discussion for 2016, Duffey's debut was much more impressive than could have been expected.
 
Tommy Milone (
 
As somewhat of a swingman, Milone's role became more defined as the season went on. Becoming more of a reliable starter and more entrenched in the starting five, Milone was able to settle in late. He put up his fair share of clunkers, but he should be looking at an arbitration pay day from the Twins.
 
Kyle Gibson (A-)
 
It's hard to suggest that Kyle Gibson did anything but take a massive step forward in 2015. He was one of the Twins most consistent pitchers, and he was able to come up big when needed most. he set career highs across the board, and when the dust settled, ended up being the Twins starter called upon most by Paul Molitor. He may be trade bait going forward, but if not, he's going to help solidify what is a much improved rotation.
 
Mike Pelfrey (B-)
 
More often than not the subject of Twins pitching vitriol, Pelfrey was an integral part of this team. While he put up his fair share of clunkers, and he wasn't good on the road, it was often Pelfrey in big spots that kept the Twins afloat. Finally producing a season worthy of the money Minnesota had paid him, Pelfrey can enter free agency owning an ERA in the top third of the American League in 2015.
 
Ricky Nolasco (D+)
 
It's hard to grade a guy that can't stay on the field, but hopefully the Twins take care of that problem this offseason. Nolasco put together a nice stretch of starts prior to his ankle injury, but then missed the majority of the season. He returned in the final week and looked the part of a bad pitcher he has been for the vast majority of his Twins tenure.
 
Bullpen
 
Blaine Boyer (B+)
 
The season is over, so we can now take a breath on Boyer. His ERA was significantly better than his FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggested it should have been, at this point it doesn't matter however. A lottery ticket out of spring training, Boyer was a low cost option that gave the Twins way more than they could have bargained for.
 
Neal Cotts ©
 
Acquired for next to nothing from the Brewers, the Twins can't be too disappointed with the production. His numbers with Molitor's club were less than impressive, and I'm not sure he should be in the fold heading into 2016. Either way though, Cotts was markedly average in every way.
 
Brian Duensing (D)
 
Once again, the Twins offered Duensing arbitration over the offseason. Once again, Duensing proved to be the pitcher that doesn't miss enough bats, and provides very little out of the pen. His ERA was ugly, and his peripherals did little to help an already bad Twins bullpen. It would seem to be an egregious mistake if Duensing is asked to come back in 2016.
 
Casey Fien (C-)
 
Fien has been bumped from his setup role by the Twins, but still remains one of the better arms in their pen. That's indicative of the state in which the bullpen was in, as well as Fien's own struggles. He had an ok year as a whole, but he blew up big too often, and generally was hard to trust down the stretch. He'll be back in 2016, but needs to be a part of a better core.
 
J.R. Graham (D+)
 
Hidden and then over-exposed, Graham followed the tumultuous path of a Rule 5 draft pick. In a bad bullpen Molitor and Neil Allen had little choice but to deploy Graham at times. He held his own for the most part, but looked the part of a guy that had never pitched above Double-A. He'll head to Triple-A in 2016, and his next big league experience should be a different story. More beneficial to him than the Twins, Graham's experience this season should help his development long term.
 
Kevin Jepsen (A)
 
You probably can't overstate just how valuable Jepsen was the Minnesota. He came in at a critical time and gave the Twins everything they could have hoped for and then some. Saving games, pitching in high leverage, and being next to a sure thing in the 9th, Jepsen was a massive asset down the stretch. Under team control in 2016, Jepsen's acquisition was one of the best moves Terry Ryan has made in a while.
 
Trevor May (A-)
 
Converted from a starter to help a bullpen in desperate need, May was even better in relief. He ended up owning the 8th inning and operating as the Twins setup man. Giving the bullpen a strikeout punch with heightened velocity, May looked the part of a lock down reliever. He's going to be brought into spring training as a starter, but there's no guarantee that's the role in which he leaves it.
 
Ryan O'Rourke (C-)
 
Initially called upon to be a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), O'Rourke was quickly asked to do more. In a bad bullpen, having specialized arms is farm from an awarded luxury. While having to pitch in less than advantageous situations, he was exposed and looked the part of a minor leaguer out of place.
 
Glen Perkins (
 
Much like Dozier above, this is a grade that should be so much higher for the Twins opening day closer. Perkins was lights out prior to the All Star Break, and earned another trip to the game. Following that point though, he was nothing short of horrendous. Blown saves, DL stints, and ineffective pitching, Perkins hurt the Twins by continuing to trot out to the mound. Had the bullpen been in a better place, Minnesota would have been better off telling Perkins to head into the offseason about a month early.
 
Michael Tonkin ©
 
Tonkin was jerked around by the Twins more than any other minor leaguer this season. Called up and down multiple times, eventually pitching in 26 games, he has the ability to stay. Ending with a 3.47 ERA, he should be given a shot out of the gate in 2016, and likely provides a higher ceiling than some of the options that Molitor had at his disposal this season.
 
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