Ted Schwerzler

The year was 2017 and the month was August. Byron Buxton had just been shelved since mid-July, entered with a .604 OPS, and was ready to get back on the field. The Minnesota Twins needed a jolt to push towards the playoffs and man did his month of August provide it. A .973 OPS across 29 games ended up vaulting him onto the national scene and he was rewarded with an 18th place finish in the American League MVP voting. Fast forward to 2019 and we’re watching it happen again.
 
Right now, Buxton doesn’t own a .973 OPS, and no 29-game sample size has jumped off the page quite like that final month of summer did. However, it’s what Byron Buxton has done this season that is getting deserved recognition across the sport. He isn’t going to win an MVP award because Mike Trout exists, but behind arguably the greatest player to ever step on the diamond, Buxton is currently the second-best centerfielder in the game.
 
On May 13th Buxton had played 37 games for the Twins and his 17 doubles led all of baseball. He had just one homer, but his .275 average and .806 OPS were plenty promising. This date is significant as it was then that I offered the following thoughts on Twitter:
 

 
We’re now roughly a month out from that Tweet, and things have gone as expected. Buxton’s hard-hit rate since that date is 38.6%. He has jumped the 2% HR/FB rate all the way up to 25% and has six dingers. He still leads the American League with 21 doubles (trailing only Josh Bell’s 25 across baseball), but the longball is now being incorporated back into his game. I have long believed Buxton won’t hit for average as much as he’ll combine to hit for power. If the .270 sticks, so be it, but the .500+ SLG is exactly what I’d like to see.
 
You already know about the defensive acumen. Buxton leads baseball in Outs Above Average (10) and Actual Catch Percentage (94%). His 9 DRS is third in the big leagues, and his UZR is also off the charts. It’s fair to suggest that, when healthy, he’s the most dynamic player on defense that the sport currently employs.
 
What is great, and maybe less known, is that the offensive outburst looks sustainable. He’s decreased his chase and whiff rates. His contact rate is a career high, and the hard-hit rate is a substantial improvement. The ball is on the ground nearly 10% less than career averages, and he’s not just trying to beat out ground balls as has been previously suggested to him. This is a good hitter that allowing his tools to work and is creating absolute nightmares for opposing pitchers because of it.
 
It really doesn’t matter where he hits in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. I’ve talked about moving him up previously, and something like 6th or 7th seems to make sense. Even if he stays in the 9-hole though, this is a guy that’s settled in and finally comfortable showing off the ability that has been there all along.
 
While he won’t win the MVP award, he’s a top 10 candidate at this point in the season, and even that may be a bit too light.

Prior to the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi in exchange for Jermaine Palacios. At the time, Palacios was a second or third tier prospect that had some internal fanfare. Swapping him for a big-league starter was a no-brainer though. Jake’s first season with the Twins was mostly mediocre, but there was reason to believe he was better than the numbers.
 
Across 32 starts a season ago Odorizzi owned a 4.49 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and a 3.8 BB/9. He dropped his home run rate significantly, and while the WHIP was a career worst, a 4.20 FIP suggested a bit more was in the tank. Fast forward to where we are today and Odorizzi owns a league best 1.96 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. His 226 ERA+ leads the league and he has all the makings of a Cy Young candidate.
 
In terms of increased production, nothing has substantially jumped off the page. The step forward has been the culmination of tweaks made across the board. Jake now owns a strikeout rate of 28%, a 6% increase over his 2018 mark. The walks are down while both the homers and hits have tailed off as well. If there’s something substantial to note, it’s the incredible 83.6% strand rate.
 
Batted ball profiles suggest that hitters are producing the same type of contact against the former Rays starter. Hard hit rates are static over the past two years, and trajectories are also all in line. The difference in induced contact likely comes in the form of velocity and offering. Odorizzi has added 2 mph to his average fastball, and the 11% curveball usage is over double the rate that it’s been since any point following 2013.
 
You’d have been hard pressed to see comments with a positive tone regarding many of Odorizzi’s starts a season ago. Despite the mediocre results, and a bit better in terms of peripherals, there wasn’t much excitement about the possibility of a 2019 rebound. Today we’re in a place that Odorizzi is often looked upon as a certainty when toeing the rubber, and the results have followed. It’s hard not to be happy about the reality that the changes haven’t been dramatic.
 
If there’s an extension candidate in the Twins rotation, then Odorizzi is it. Still just 29 years old, he should have more than a few years of high-level production still ahead of him. Knowing Minnesota has a few rotation holes to fill for the year ahead, Odorizzi slotting in as one of the guarantees would be a welcomed presence. Unfortunately, by waiting through this season Minnesota will have to deal with an inflated price tag. At the end of the day though, the Twins aren’t hurting for cash flow and wrapping up a starter this good is something they should jump at.
 
Derek Falvey and Wes Johnson have helped to overhaul the Twins pitching process, and the infrastructure set up throughout the system makes it a sustainable solution for years to come.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the season the one real glaring area of weakness for the Minnesota Twins was their relief corps. Relying on unproven commodities like Matt Magill and Ryne Harper seemed lofty, and the high leverage arms came in the form of Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers. Fast forward to today and the pitching staff has performed admirably with the bullpen significantly surpassing fan expectations. If there’s a call to be made though, it may come from further down the ladder.
 
Today the Twins promoted Devin Smeltzer to make his major league debut against the Milwaukee Brewers. Smeltzer was acquired from the Dodgers last season in the deal that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles. After working solely as a reliever in Double-A last season for Minnesota, Smeltzer made five starts in Pensacola this year before four turns at Triple-A. He’s just 23 years old, and the promotion schedule has been an aggressive one.
 
In calling up Smeltzer to replace Michael Pineda in the starting rotation the wheels should begin spinning on who could be next. So far, we’ve seen both Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell from Rochester this season, but that’s about where the options end right now. Lewis Thorpe doesn’t have strong numbers and Stephen Gonsalves twirled just two innings before landing back on the Injured List. Given the aggressiveness shown by the Twins front office, and circumstance regarding available options, the next man up could currently be at Double-A.
 
Jorge Alcala was acquired as the key piece in exchange for Ryan Pressly. Pumping a triple-digit fastball, he’s put together a season that’s been significantly better than some of his surface numbers. Through 48 innings he owns a 4.69 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9. Where things look even more promising is that he’s been bit by a .357 BABIP and his FIP stands at 2.95 with a 3.27 xFIP. In short, there’s a good deal of bad luck going on, and much better peripherals than the gaudy ERA suggests.
 
Recently on the Twins radio broadcast, Derek Falvey offered up Alcala’s name as one the Twins may end up seeing as soon as this year. He’s 23 years old and has certainly advanced his prospect stock this season. Whether in a spot start or for some firepower out of the pen, it may be the Dominican native that emerges as the next most likely option.
 
Certainly, it’d be great for Minnesota if some of the relief arms at Triple-A Rochester got back on track, or guys like Gonsalves and Brusdar Graterol returned to a clean bill of health. As contingency plans though, we’ve seen the aggressive movement of players like Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, and others. The Twins will need to rely on some depth as the season goes along, and Alcala is providing that despite not being on the immediate doorstep.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Michael Pineda made a start for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night in California against the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up a home run to Mike Trout during the second at bat of the game, the opposition was leading 3-0 entering the 3rd inning. That was your que to go and do a quick Twitter search, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. The reality is we’re seeing a shift in expectations.
 
Entering play on May 22 the Twins pitching staff owned the 7th best fWAR in baseball. The 3.68 ERA of Minnesota starters was 7th in the sport and 4th in the American League. No longer is this group the pitch to contact, look for worm burners, pray for rain type of collection. There are strikeout arms at the disposal of Rocco Baldelli everyone stands to benefit from a systemic change throughout the organization.
 
This isn’t to give Michael Pineda a pass. His first six starts in a Twins uniform were to the tune of a 6.21 ERA and .913 OPS against. He made it through the sixth inning just once and failed to advance beyond the fourth on two separate occasions. Having missed all the 2018 season, and over half of 2017, some level of rust was to be expected. Add in that three of those starts came against the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies and it’s fair to see where danger may have been hiding.
 
Since his lackluster start Pineda has turned a significant corner. There’s no one foolish enough to suggest he’s a staff ace but a 4.50 ERA across 24.0 IP (four starts) is more than enough from the fifth guy in your rotation. He’s cut the opposing OPS down to .757 and while the homers still plague him, the 22/5 K/BB is plenty respectable.
Over the course of his career Pineda has always been a guy to get bitten by the longball. He’s got a career 1.3 HR/9 and has been at 1.7 dating back to 2016. He’s also always posted strong strikeout numbers and limited the number of walks. Avoiding damage by making a good number of longballs fall into the solo variety is a safe way to give them up if you’re going to toe that line.
 
There’s also a velocity decrease at play that could be hampering some of Pineda’s output. On the season he owns a 92.5 mph average, which is down from his 94.6 mph career mark. He didn’t see much warmth during Minnesota’s April, and the 93.3 mph averaging representing a season high came during an away game in Houston. As the summer trudges on, that will be something to monitor.
 
The rest of his peripherals suggest that we’re looking at a pitcher simply being dogged by the big blast. His 42.9% hard hit rate is a career worst by quite a bit, and it’s spiked the 46% fly ball rate and 18% HR/FB mark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, but so far has danced around danger well. A .286 BABIP is workable, and more fly balls kept in the yard should be convertible outs.
 
We’ll have to wait and see how future starts play out, but this is currently trending in the right direction. A 4.50 ERA isn’t going to have fans putting him in the discussion of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, or Martin Perez, but it’s a solid mark you can be happy with. We aren’t looking at a Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, or Hector Santiago situation here. Despite a fanbase that seems to still be treading carefully and waiting for the bottom to fall out, there’s a lot of handwringing over the production of a 5th starter that’s doing his job appropriately.
 
If you want to go out and throw your hands up each time Pineda toes the rubber and gives up three or four runs, be my guest. As much as I won’t be the one to stop those claims, I’ll also caution that he’s not an ideal fit for the bullpen, the depth behind him is currently uninspiring, and the most important factor is that he’s doing his job just fine. Minnesota could certainly afford to upgrade the fringes of its pitching staff, but that’s more matter of practice than it is an indictment on any one player.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Michael Pineda made a start for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night in California against the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up a home run to Mike Trout during the second at bat of the game, the opposition was leading 3-0 entering the 3rd inning. That was your que to go and do a quick Twitter search, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. The reality is we’re seeing a shift in expectations.
 
Entering play on May 22 the Twins pitching staff owned the 7th best fWAR in baseball. The 3.68 ERA of Minnesota starters was 7th in the sport and 4th in the American League. No longer is this group the pitch to contact, look for worm burners, pray for rain type of collection. There are strikeout arms at the disposal of Rocco Baldelli everyone stands to benefit from a systemic change throughout the organization.
 
This isn’t to give Michael Pineda a pass. His first six starts in a Twins uniform were to the tune of a 6.21 ERA and .913 OPS against. He made it through the sixth inning just once and failed to advance beyond the fourth on two separate occasions. Having missed all the 2018 season, and over half of 2017, some level of rust was to be expected. Add in that three of those starts came against the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies and it’s fair to see where danger may have been hiding.
 
Since his lackluster start Pineda has turned a significant corner. There’s no one foolish enough to suggest he’s a staff ace but a 4.50 ERA across 24.0 IP (four starts) is more than enough from the fifth guy in your rotation. He’s cut the opposing OPS down to .757 and while the homers still plague him, the 22/5 K/BB is plenty respectable.
Over the course of his career Pineda has always been a guy to get bitten by the longball. He’s got a career 1.3 HR/9 and has been at 1.7 dating back to 2016. He’s also always posted strong strikeout numbers and limited the number of walks. Avoiding damage by making a good number of longballs fall into the solo variety is a safe way to give them up if you’re going to toe that line.
 
There’s also a velocity decrease at play that could be hampering some of Pineda’s output. On the season he owns a 92.5 mph average, which is down from his 94.6 mph career mark. He didn’t see much warmth during Minnesota’s April, and the 93.3 mph averaging representing a season high came during an away game in Houston. As the summer trudges on, that will be something to monitor.
 
The rest of his peripherals suggest that we’re looking at a pitcher simply being dogged by the big blast. His 42.9% hard hit rate is a career worst by quite a bit, and it’s spiked the 46% fly ball rate and 18% HR/FB mark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, but so far has danced around danger well. A .286 BABIP is workable, and more fly balls kept in the yard should be convertible outs.
 
We’ll have to wait and see how future starts play out, but this is currently trending in the right direction. A 4.50 ERA isn’t going to have fans putting him in the discussion of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, or Martin Perez, but it’s a solid mark you can be happy with. We aren’t looking at a Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, or Hector Santiago situation here. Despite a fanbase that seems to still be treading carefully and waiting for the bottom to fall out, there’s a lot of handwringing over the production of a 5th starter that’s doing his job appropriately.
 
If you want to go out and throw your hands up each time Pineda toes the rubber and gives up three or four runs, be my guest. As much as I won’t be the one to stop those claims, I’ll also caution that he’s not an ideal fit for the bullpen, the depth behind him is currently uninspiring, and the most important factor is that he’s doing his job just fine. Minnesota could certainly afford to upgrade the fringes of its pitching staff, but that’s more matter of practice than it is an indictment on any one player.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Michael Pineda made a start for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night in California against the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up a home run to Mike Trout during the second at bat of the game, the opposition was leading 3-0 entering the 3rd inning. That was your que to go and do a quick Twitter search, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. The reality is we’re seeing a shift in expectations.
 
Entering play on May 22 the Twins pitching staff owned the 7th best fWAR in baseball. The 3.68 ERA of Minnesota starters was 7th in the sport and 4th in the American League. No longer is this group the pitch to contact, look for worm burners, pray for rain type of collection. There are strikeout arms at the disposal of Rocco Baldelli everyone stands to benefit from a systemic change throughout the organization.
 
This isn’t to give Michael Pineda a pass. His first six starts in a Twins uniform were to the tune of a 6.21 ERA and .913 OPS against. He made it through the sixth inning just once and failed to advance beyond the fourth on two separate occasions. Having missed all the 2018 season, and over half of 2017, some level of rust was to be expected. Add in that three of those starts came against the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies and it’s fair to see where danger may have been hiding.
 
Since his lackluster start Pineda has turned a significant corner. There’s no one foolish enough to suggest he’s a staff ace but a 4.50 ERA across 24.0 IP (four starts) is more than enough from the fifth guy in your rotation. He’s cut the opposing OPS down to .757 and while the homers still plague him, the 22/5 K/BB is plenty respectable.
Over the course of his career Pineda has always been a guy to get bitten by the longball. He’s got a career 1.3 HR/9 and has been at 1.7 dating back to 2016. He’s also always posted strong strikeout numbers and limited the number of walks. Avoiding damage by making a good number of longballs fall into the solo variety is a safe way to give them up if you’re going to toe that line.
 
There’s also a velocity decrease at play that could be hampering some of Pineda’s output. On the season he owns a 92.5 mph average, which is down from his 94.6 mph career mark. He didn’t see much warmth during Minnesota’s April, and the 93.3 mph averaging representing a season high came during an away game in Houston. As the summer trudges on, that will be something to monitor.
 
The rest of his peripherals suggest that we’re looking at a pitcher simply being dogged by the big blast. His 42.9% hard hit rate is a career worst by quite a bit, and it’s spiked the 46% fly ball rate and 18% HR/FB mark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, but so far has danced around danger well. A .286 BABIP is workable, and more fly balls kept in the yard should be convertible outs.
 
We’ll have to wait and see how future starts play out, but this is currently trending in the right direction. A 4.50 ERA isn’t going to have fans putting him in the discussion of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, or Martin Perez, but it’s a solid mark you can be happy with. We aren’t looking at a Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, or Hector Santiago situation here. Despite a fanbase that seems to still be treading carefully and waiting for the bottom to fall out, there’s a lot of handwringing over the production of a 5th starter that’s doing his job appropriately.
 
If you want to go out and throw your hands up each time Pineda toes the rubber and gives up three or four runs, be my guest. As much as I won’t be the one to stop those claims, I’ll also caution that he’s not an ideal fit for the bullpen, the depth behind him is currently uninspiring, and the most important factor is that he’s doing his job just fine. Minnesota could certainly afford to upgrade the fringes of its pitching staff, but that’s more matter of practice than it is an indictment on any one player.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the offseason a consistent narrative from the Minnesota Twins front office was one of patience. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consistently suggested that many of the near-future decisions would hinge on the production of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Back in early February I wondered if that reality didn’t make Sano and Buxton out to be scapegoats. Fortunately for all parties involved, one half of the duo has forced the hand of the Front Office.
 
Through the first 39 games Minnesota has 25 wins, is leading the AL Central, and owns the best record in all of baseball. This team is hitting a ridiculous amount of home runs, the starting pitching has been exceptional, and the bullpen has been far better than expected. Looking at the two-headed monster discussed from the outset, Byron Buxton owns an .816 OPS while being arguably the best defender in the game, and Miguel Sano is yet to step on the field.
 
Following the publishing of that February piece one large move was made that both addressed some payroll concerns, as well as adding significant talent to the roster. Marwin Gonzalez was inked to a two-year pact for $21 million. As arguably the best super-utility player in baseball, he provided a level of insurance against slumps and injuries all over the field. Called upon to start at third base from the get-go with Sano’s injury, he’ll now slot back into a versatile role once Miguel is activated later this week.
 
In fact, it’s the return of Sano that brings up this talking point sooner than the July 31st trade deadline. All we know about the Dominican slugger at this point is that he showed up to Spring Training in a shape reflective of a commitment level not yet seen from him. Despite an injury delaying his debut, he put up solid numbers in a very small rehab sample size. He also has a profile that fits in nicely with what this team is attempting to accomplish when he is right.
 
Looking for a floor, Miguel Sano is the hitter who owned a .679 OPS a season ago. There’s a ton of power, way too many swings and misses, along with some questionable-at-best defense over at the hot corner. His ceiling looks something like the 2015 version where he posted a .916 OPS across 80 games and showed both plate discipline as well as prowess. A reality lying somewhere in the middle, lots of home runs, a good number of walks, and a handful of swings and misses, would be an optimal outcome for Rocco Baldelli to dispose.
 
For the Twins, Byron Buxton already is that. He hasn’t flashed his peak, but he’s also nowhere near his floor. Performing at the level he is now, serious consideration for some personal accolades could be given, and he’s doing it within the structure of a team capable of making a run. For Falvey and Levine, the two linchpins of the equation are now forcing them to re-evaluate.
 
There’s no denying that the window is just beginning to open in Twins Territory. The division should remain down for some time, the farm system is among the best in baseball, and the big-league club has talent capable of high production for the next three to five years. Supplementing this team, and the ones that come after it is now a must, and it’s this front office that I’d pick to have in charge.
 
With the focus being put on Buxton and Sano, Falvey and Levine effectively said when we win, we’ll go to work. Knowing that this team has holes but is capable of more, there’s reason to believe additions prior to the July 31st deadline make a ton of sense. A bigger price tag may come with the earlier acquisition cost, but for a team looking to add in 2019 and beyond, reinforcements should be of the long-term view as well. Whether under team control into 2020 and beyond, or free agent deals with multiple years, commitment and buy in is where moves need to lean.
 
It’s not time to push Falvey and Levine on execution just yet, we haven’t even hit mid-May. If we’re through min-June before this club is adding additional talent though, they’ll have suggested a wait and see approach only to close their eyes. I don’t foresee that result taking place, and if trade returns like that of Brian Dozier or Jermaine Palacios are any indication, the duo at the top for Minnesota should be trusted with full authority.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

While sports trading cards have been a long-standing cardboard commodity, Topps previously introduced the digital collecting craze. In football it’s known as Huddle and in baseball its coined Bunt. Although there’s a digital aspect to these products, Topps used to produce a physical counterpart. In recent years the baseball Bunt brand has died off physically, and it’s been replaced by Big League. A cheap rip focused on subjects and child-sized fun, Topps has executed something everyone can get behind.
 
As sports cards have seen resurgence in popularity there’s no denying the lucrative aspect of collecting. For products like Big League though, it isn’t about the almighty dollar and instead provides an affordable avenue for the avid fan or new collector to participate in the longstanding hobby. With the Minnesota Twins being well represented in 2019, this is a product you should definitely check out.
 
Base Set
 
There are a total of 403 cards in the 2019 Big League base set. That’s a whopper in and of itself, but Minnesota’s cards are more manageable with 13 entries. You’ll find plenty of familiar faces in this group, but the standouts include C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and a Willians Astudillo rookie card. The Twins don’t have any players in the three base variation set checklists.
 
Inserts
 
As mentioned above, Big League is not about inserts or autographs. While both subsets are included, neither is the goal of buying into the product. For the Twins however, there is an entry in each of the three insert checklists. The Player’s Weekend Nickname, as well as the Star Caricatures set, includes Jose Berrios. Max Kepler represents Minnesota on the 10 card Wall Climbers group.
 
Hits
 
Just 52 autograph cards show up in total across the entire checklist, but Minnesota lands three participants. At the low price point, you can expect each of these to be of the sticker variety. Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios find themselves on the Big League autograph set, with each offering producing parallel cards as well. Willians Astudillo lands his first Topps RC auto in the 17 card Rookie Republic portion of the product.
 
If you’re looking for something to rip in bulk, a cheap item to enjoy the imagery, or a card offering that will appeal to younger generations, then Topps Big League is certainly a good bet. Make sure to look for it at your local retailer or hobby store on May 15.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It’s long been a thing in baseball that struggling or failed starting pitchers could simply head out to the bullpen and find another path to success. From the short burst outings, to avoiding multiple lineup turns, and even decreasing the total pitch mitch, it’s a whole different recipe beyond the outfield wall. Adalberto Mejia was thrust into this role for 2019, but it doesn’t appear to be going as smoothly as Minnesota may have hoped.
 
Let me start out by saying that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Only 27 games have been played, and with the Twins housed in the Midwest, weather has been the enemy more often than it hasn’t. There’s reason to believe that the Dominican native could settle in as the weather warms up, but the flip side of that argument is in the benefit provided to the hitter and batted baseball in those same circumstances. While not dismissing and of these realities, looking at the generated inputs is a must.
 
Prior to 2019 Mejia had operated solely as a starter for Minnesota. With a full rotation for Rocco Baldelli’s squad, the out of options lefty got moved to the bullpen. There was never any indication that this was a more logical path to success as it was a necessity to get all the pieces on the 25-man roster to coexist. Now that we have some actionable data to work with, we can start to make some comments regarding how the transition is working out.
 
Through 11.1 IP Mejia owns an ugly 8.74 ERA having given up earned runs in four of his 11 outings. On three of those occasions, the damage has been in the form of a crooked number. As expected, the velocity and strikeout rates have spiked a bit in short bursts, but the greatest problem has been a complete lack of command. He’s sporting a 7.1 BB/9 and an 11/9 K/BB ratio. Adding in the 8.7 H/9 and a HR/9 rate nearing 2.0 only helps to complete a recipe for disaster.
 
Typically, the thought process of moving a starter to relief would be in the hope that a smaller repertoire and enhanced velocity would provide a two-headed approach towards a more effective arm. Mejia has jumped his velocity, but only minimally. Averaging 93.8 mph he’s up one mph on his number from 2018, but there’s an argument to be made that more is in the tank once the weather warms up. Maximizing effectiveness in his offerings though, the pitch mix is far from specialized.
 
Utilizing the same repertoire as when he was starting, Mejia throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and has lightly mixed in a curveball. The four main offerings are all utilized at a relatively high clip, and the greatest change this season has been in muting the traditional fastball while turning to the changeup more often. The lack of specialization, however, is indicative of a guy without a true out pitch. There isn’t enough velocity on the fastball to make it a plus pitch, and just a 9% whiff rate doesn’t scream that any other offering is missing bats either.
 
If you could construct Mejia in the model that Minnesota would like to see, it’d be a lefty that is able to generate power from his size into his fastball. Pairing that one pitch with an off-speed slider or changeup would allow him to effectively keep opponents off balance. Just 2.8% of Adalberto’s fastballs have been whiffed on, with sliders generating a 3.7% whiff rate. That’s far too much contact allowed from a relief pitcher often tasked with keeping opportunities at bay. Add in that you’re giving out free passes at an alarming clip, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
 
At this point the Twins are getting closer to a point in which they’ll need to decide. It’s unfortunate to lose out on starting pitching talent, and there’s reason to believe that Mejia could bolster the back of a rotation. At almost 26 though, we’re getting to the point that there needs to be more of a plan than just reliance on stuff. He can’t go down without passing through waivers, so unless a flip-flop is being made with Martin Perez in the starting five now, continuing to employ him in the bullpen looks like a losing proposition.
 
As good as Taylor Rogers is, having him be your sole lefty in relief is probably not a path you’d choose to go down. Jake Reed deserves a shot in Minnesota but is of the wrong-handedness for this discussion. Right now, that leaves one of Andrew Vasquez or Gabriel Moya. Both of those guys could certainly take their lumps but investing in them as long-term relief solutions seems to be a better idea than fitting this square peg in a round hole.
 
We can wait another couple of weeks to see if warmth is able to correct any of Adalberto Mejia’s situation, but right now it looks to be larger than something the mercury can correct.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It’s long been a thing in baseball that struggling or failed starting pitchers could simply head out to the bullpen and find another path to success. From the short burst outings, to avoiding multiple lineup turns, and even decreasing the total pitch mitch, it’s a whole different recipe beyond the outfield wall. Adalberto Mejia was thrust into this role for 2019, but it doesn’t appear to be going as smoothly as Minnesota may have hoped.
 
Let me start out by saying that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Only 27 games have been played, and with the Twins housed in the Midwest, weather has been the enemy more often than it hasn’t. There’s reason to believe that the Dominican native could settle in as the weather warms up, but the flip side of that argument is in the benefit provided to the hitter and batted baseball in those same circumstances. While not dismissing and of these realities, looking at the generated inputs is a must.
 
Prior to 2019 Mejia had operated solely as a starter for Minnesota. With a full rotation for Rocco Baldelli’s squad, the out of options lefty got moved to the bullpen. There was never any indication that this was a more logical path to success as it was a necessity to get all the pieces on the 25-man roster to coexist. Now that we have some actionable data to work with, we can start to make some comments regarding how the transition is working out.
 
Through 11.1 IP Mejia owns an ugly 8.74 ERA having given up earned runs in four of his 11 outings. On three of those occasions, the damage has been in the form of a crooked number. As expected, the velocity and strikeout rates have spiked a bit in short bursts, but the greatest problem has been a complete lack of command. He’s sporting a 7.1 BB/9 and an 11/9 K/BB ratio. Adding in the 8.7 H/9 and a HR/9 rate nearing 2.0 only helps to complete a recipe for disaster.
 
Typically, the thought process of moving a starter to relief would be in the hope that a smaller repertoire and enhanced velocity would provide a two-headed approach towards a more effective arm. Mejia has jumped his velocity, but only minimally. Averaging 93.8 mph he’s up one mph on his number from 2018, but there’s an argument to be made that more is in the tank once the weather warms up. Maximizing effectiveness in his offerings though, the pitch mix is far from specialized.
 
Utilizing the same repertoire as when he was starting, Mejia throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and has lightly mixed in a curveball. The four main offerings are all utilized at a relatively high clip, and the greatest change this season has been in muting the traditional fastball while turning to the changeup more often. The lack of specialization, however, is indicative of a guy without a true out pitch. There isn’t enough velocity on the fastball to make it a plus pitch, and just a 9% whiff rate doesn’t scream that any other offering is missing bats either.
 
If you could construct Mejia in the model that Minnesota would like to see, it’d be a lefty that is able to generate power from his size into his fastball. Pairing that one pitch with an off-speed slider or changeup would allow him to effectively keep opponents off balance. Just 2.8% of Adalberto’s fastballs have been whiffed on, with sliders generating a 3.7% whiff rate. That’s far too much contact allowed from a relief pitcher often tasked with keeping opportunities at bay. Add in that you’re giving out free passes at an alarming clip, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
 
At this point the Twins are getting closer to a point in which they’ll need to decide. It’s unfortunate to lose out on starting pitching talent, and there’s reason to believe that Mejia could bolster the back of a rotation. At almost 26 though, we’re getting to the point that there needs to be more of a plan than just reliance on stuff. He can’t go down without passing through waivers, so unless a flip-flop is being made with Martin Perez in the starting five now, continuing to employ him in the bullpen looks like a losing proposition.
 
As good as Taylor Rogers is, having him be your sole lefty in relief is probably not a path you’d choose to go down. Jake Reed deserves a shot in Minnesota but is of the wrong-handedness for this discussion. Right now, that leaves one of Andrew Vasquez or Gabriel Moya. Both of those guys could certainly take their lumps but investing in them as long-term relief solutions seems to be a better idea than fitting this square peg in a round hole.
 
We can wait another couple of weeks to see if warmth is able to correct any of Adalberto Mejia’s situation, but right now it looks to be larger than something the mercury can correct.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the course of the past decade the Minnesota Twins have shown some scouting prowess in their findings down under. From the early stories of Peter Moylan and Liam Hendriks, to a recent hat tip pointed at James Beresford, Australia has produced big leagues in a Twins uniform. Although Todd Van Steensel displayed some nice minor league numbers, he got to Minnesota by way of the St. Paul Saints. The system still has more talent from down under, and one could be on his way north soon.
 
Lewis Thorpe has worked four times in 2019 for Triple-A Rochester. After two very bad outings against the same Lehigh Valley club to start the year, he’s settled in as the pitcher that previously appeared on top 100 prospect lists. Thorpe’s last two outings have seen him work 13.2 IP with a 1.98 ERA and .497 OPS against. He’s fanned 24 batters and walked just one. To call his work dominant would be putting it lightly.
 
As a lefty, Thorpe isn’t the traditional soft-tossing type. This is a guy who can blow the fastball by professional hitters, and his career 10.9 K/9 is plenty indicative of that reality. Since returning from both Tommy John surgery, and then mononucleosis, Lewis has picked up right where he left off. His walk rate hovers around 3.0 BB/9 which is probably a bit higher than you’d like but combatting that with solid hit and strikeout rates make for a strong profile.
 
To date Thorpe has just eight career starts at the Triple-A level. At just 23 years-old, that’s plenty impressive, but it’s also not a seasoned amount that reflects an immediate need for a promotion. Given the volatility at the back end of a starting rotation, we know that a need will arise in Minnesota sooner rather than later. Long term the Twins would like to see Thorpe come up and stick, but a spot start or something to get his feet wet could soon be on the horizon.
 
Over the past year we’ve seen Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves all make their debuts for the Twins. Thorpe trends more heavily towards the highly-touted prospect that Gonsalves resembles and could be handled in a similar fashion. That would mean he’d be destined for a later season role in which he’d stick long term. If the current level of production remains though, it’d be plenty logical for Rocco Baldelli to run him out on a day he simply needs a starter.
 
Back in February I opined that Thorpe was the guy to watch this season. He’s done very little to pump the brakes on that notion and making it a reality in the immediate future continues to become something to keep an eye on.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It’s April 24 and the Minnesota Twins have played 21 games during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. In that time, left fielder Eddie Rosario has taken the American League by storm being a co-owner of the home run lead, and he’s spearheading an offensive outburst not generally seen around these parts. It wasn’t long ago that Rosario looked the part of an All Star, but where is all of this coming from?
 
Through 21 games, Rosario has already tallied ten dingers on the season. That puts him on pace for over 70 on the season, and it’s the fastest any player in Twins history has ever reached double-digits. When you’ve got that much power production this quickly it becomes hard to fly under the radar. At the 2018 All Star break Twins fans saw Rosario own a .311/.353/.537 slash line with 19 homers however, and that story didn’t have an entirely great ending. Figuring out how this may be different is key for the continued success of the budding star.
 
After racing out to gaudy numbers in 2018, Rosario finished the season owning just a .622 OPS in his final 45 games and sending another five balls out of the park. His year ended in the middle of September and the tale of the first half seemed like a distant memory. Fast forward to today and we’re once again in the midst of a hot start. The .274/.315/.679 slash line is a pretty one, but there’s a couple of inputs to the batted ball profile that should make us smile.
 
As a free swing who tends to expand the zone, and rarely take walks, we need to view Rosario’s approach through a different lens. He’s chased 42% of the time in 2019 and whiffed on 11% of pitches. Neither of those occurrences are beyond career norms, and his 79% contact rate is a new high. When making contact in the zone, he’s doing so at nearly 90%, essentially daring opponents to throw strikes. It isn’t where he’s swinging though, as much as it is how he’s making contact.
 
On the season Rosario owns a career best 39.7% hard hit rate. This is a 3% improvement from 2018 and is a 7% jump from his career average. On batted balls, only 39% are being hit on the ground with 50% being fly balls and 10.3% being line drives. Elevating the ball is certainly a positive trend, and it’s a direct reflection of a significant launch angle increase. On base hits during 2018, Rosario had an average launch angle of just 13.5 degrees. This season, that number is all the way up to 22.3 degrees.
 
From a spray perspective, you could call Rosie the left handed Brian Dozier. All the way up to a 52.9% pull rate, all but one of Eddie’s home runs have been hit to the right side of centerfield. The concentration on power was strong that way in 2018 as well, but the final pull percentage landed at 43.4%. This isn’t to say that Rosario won’t find success going the other way as pitcher’s attack him more on the outside. What we can see immediately is that Eddie is putting strong swings on balls he can yank to his strong side.
 
For now, we’re dealing with a small sample size. Knowing how much action is left this season, we’ll have plenty of time for this to all normalize. The early season power surge is reflective of a guy getting more loft while hitting the ball significantly harder. That’s a straightforward path to these types of results, but it’s comforting to note that the results aren’t coming with the caveat of an approach that has changed in any negative or impactful way.
 
Lost in all this offensive narrative is that Rosario has regained a focus in the outfield that rounds himself into something special. Putting up six defensive runs saved through his first 165 innings, and notching four outfield assists in the early going, he’s again a guy you don’t want to test in the grass either.
 
I’d be willing to bet any sum of money that Rosario won’t wind up with 70 home runs in 2019. He’s not going to hit 10 every 20 games, and there will be a month or weeks in which he experiences a real slump. For a guy that looked to display his absolute ceiling a season ago however, it’s comforting to see that even if that may be the height of things, the floor is a pretty darn good player as well.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It’s April 24 and the Minnesota Twins have played 21 games during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. In that time, left fielder Eddie Rosario has taken the American League by storm being a co-owner of the home run lead, and he’s spearheading an offensive outburst not generally seen around these parts. It wasn’t long ago that Rosario looked the part of an All Star, but where is all of this coming from?
 
Through 21 games, Rosario has already tallied ten dingers on the season. That puts him on pace for over 70 on the season, and it’s the fastest any player in Twins history has ever reached double-digits. When you’ve got that much power production this quickly it becomes hard to fly under the radar. At the 2018 All Star break Twins fans saw Rosario own a .311/.353/.537 slash line with 19 homers however, and that story didn’t have an entirely great ending. Figuring out how this may be different is key for the continued success of the budding star.
 
After racing out to gaudy numbers in 2018, Rosario finished the season owning just a .622 OPS in his final 45 games and sending another five balls out of the park. His year ended in the middle of September and the tale of the first half seemed like a distant memory. Fast forward to today and we’re once again in the midst of a hot start. The .274/.315/.679 slash line is a pretty one, but there’s a couple of inputs to the batted ball profile that should make us smile.
 
As a free swing who tends to expand the zone, and rarely take walks, we need to view Rosario’s approach through a different lens. He’s chased 42% of the time in 2019 and whiffed on 11% of pitches. Neither of those occurrences are beyond career norms, and his 79% contact rate is a new high. When making contact in the zone, he’s doing so at nearly 90%, essentially daring opponents to throw strikes. It isn’t where he’s swinging though, as much as it is how he’s making contact.
 
On the season Rosario owns a career best 39.7% hard hit rate. This is a 3% improvement from 2018 and is a 7% jump from his career average. On batted balls, only 39% are being hit on the ground with 50% being fly balls and 10.3% being line drives. Elevating the ball is certainly a positive trend, and it’s a direct reflection of a significant launch angle increase. On base hits during 2018, Rosario had an average launch angle of just 13.5 degrees. This season, that number is all the way up to 22.3 degrees.
 
From a spray perspective, you could call Rosie the left handed Brian Dozier. All the way up to a 52.9% pull rate, all but one of Eddie’s home runs have been hit to the right side of centerfield. The concentration on power was strong that way in 2018 as well, but the final pull percentage landed at 43.4%. This isn’t to say that Rosario won’t find success going the other way as pitcher’s attack him more on the outside. What we can see immediately is that Eddie is putting strong swings on balls he can yank to his strong side.
 
For now, we’re dealing with a small sample size. Knowing how much action is left this season, we’ll have plenty of time for this to all normalize. The early season power surge is reflective of a guy getting more loft while hitting the ball significantly harder. That’s a straightforward path to these types of results, but it’s comforting to note that the results aren’t coming with the caveat of an approach that has changed in any negative or impactful way.
 
Lost in all this offensive narrative is that Rosario has regained a focus in the outfield that rounds himself into something special. Putting up six defensive runs saved through his first 165 innings, and notching four outfield assists in the early going, he’s again a guy you don’t want to test in the grass either.
 
I’d be willing to bet any sum of money that Rosario won’t wind up with 70 home runs in 2019. He’s not going to hit 10 every 20 games, and there will be a month or weeks in which he experiences a real slump. For a guy that looked to display his absolute ceiling a season ago however, it’s comforting to see that even if that may be the height of things, the floor is a pretty darn good player as well.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It’s April 24 and the Minnesota Twins have played 21 games during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. In that time, left fielder Eddie Rosario has taken the American League by storm being a co-owner of the home run lead, and he’s spearheading an offensive outburst not generally seen around these parts. It wasn’t long ago that Rosario looked the part of an All Star, but where is all of this coming from?
 
Through 21 games, Rosario has already tallied ten dingers on the season. That puts him on pace for over 70 on the season, and it’s the fastest any player in Twins history has ever reached double-digits. When you’ve got that much power production this quickly it becomes hard to fly under the radar. At the 2018 All Star break Twins fans saw Rosario own a .311/.353/.537 slash line with 19 homers however, and that story didn’t have an entirely great ending. Figuring out how this may be different is key for the continued success of the budding star.
 
After racing out to gaudy numbers in 2018, Rosario finished the season owning just a .622 OPS in his final 45 games and sending another five balls out of the park. His year ended in the middle of September and the tale of the first half seemed like a distant memory. Fast forward to today and we’re once again in the midst of a hot start. The .274/.315/.679 slash line is a pretty one, but there’s a couple of inputs to the batted ball profile that should make us smile.
 
As a free swing who tends to expand the zone, and rarely take walks, we need to view Rosario’s approach through a different lens. He’s chased 42% of the time in 2019 and whiffed on 11% of pitches. Neither of those occurrences are beyond career norms, and his 79% contact rate is a new high. When making contact in the zone, he’s doing so at nearly 90%, essentially daring opponents to throw strikes. It isn’t where he’s swinging though, as much as it is how he’s making contact.
 
On the season Rosario owns a career best 39.7% hard hit rate. This is a 3% improvement from 2018 and is a 7% jump from his career average. On batted balls, only 39% are being hit on the ground with 50% being fly balls and 10.3% being line drives. Elevating the ball is certainly a positive trend, and it’s a direct reflection of a significant launch angle increase. On base hits during 2018, Rosario had an average launch angle of just 13.5 degrees. This season, that number is all the way up to 22.3 degrees.
 
From a spray perspective, you could call Rosie the left handed Brian Dozier. All the way up to a 52.9% pull rate, all but one of Eddie’s home runs have been hit to the right side of centerfield. The concentration on power was strong that way in 2018 as well, but the final pull percentage landed at 43.4%. This isn’t to say that Rosario won’t find success going the other way as pitcher’s attack him more on the outside. What we can see immediately is that Eddie is putting strong swings on balls he can yank to his strong side.
 
For now, we’re dealing with a small sample size. Knowing how much action is left this season, we’ll have plenty of time for this to all normalize. The early season power surge is reflective of a guy getting more loft while hitting the ball significantly harder. That’s a straightforward path to these types of results, but it’s comforting to note that the results aren’t coming with the caveat of an approach that has changed in any negative or impactful way.
 
Lost in all this offensive narrative is that Rosario has regained a focus in the outfield that rounds himself into something special. Putting up six defensive runs saved through his first 165 innings, and notching four outfield assists in the early going, he’s again a guy you don’t want to test in the grass either.
 
I’d be willing to bet any sum of money that Rosario won’t wind up with 70 home runs in 2019. He’s not going to hit 10 every 20 games, and there will be a month or weeks in which he experiences a real slump. For a guy that looked to display his absolute ceiling a season ago however, it’s comforting to see that even if that may be the height of things, the floor is a pretty darn good player as well.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We’re only 20 games into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, but Jorge Polanco is currently the fifth most valuable hitter in baseball by fWAR standards. The Twins shortstop has a cycle to his credit, nearly paired that with another, and has been on an absolute tear out of the gate. For a guy who was always expected to be carried by his bat, the production isn’t that surprising, but the level in which he’s producing is a bit shocking to say the least.
 
Coming up through the Twins system, there was plenty of questions regarding where Polanco would play. He had the athleticism and quickness for shortstop, but his arm strength and glove work left some to be desired at such an important role. Starting out in the organization as a 16-year-old, he bounced between the middle infield and some brief outfield work until 2014. Getting in 117 starts at short between High-A and Double-A that year, it looked like he’d found his home. Then 2016 happened. After playing 64 games for Triple-A Rochester at second, he was promoted to the big leagues as the regular shortstop. It didn’t go well.
 
During his first full time experience with the Twins, Polanco turned in a -8 DRS and -9.8 UZR in just over 400 innings at short. From there, he’s worked incredibly hard to make that a thing of the past. North of 1,100 innings in 2017 saw just a -1 DRS, and in a suspension shortened 664 innings last year, that -1 number was replicated. Working with the small sample size of 162 innings in 2019, Polanco owns his first positive DRS tally of his career.
We’re here for the sexy part of this story though, and everyone knows that’s offense. Minnesota’s shortstop owns a .392/.452/.716 slash line and his .478 wOBA is 6th among qualified hitters in all of baseball. Sure, the sample size here is equally small, but there’s less than five players going better offensively than Jorge Polanco is right now.
 
It’s painfully obvious how nice the production is, but the real questions are how, and will it continue? Jorge currently owns a 42.9% hard hit rate which is easily a career high and is 14% higher than his career average. He’s also elevating the ball more, combining to get it off the ground over 80% of the time. That’s helped to not only produce extra base hits but has him looking at a career best 12.5% HR/FB ratio.
 
Like many of his teammates, Polanco’s swing chart hasn’t changed too drastically. He’s up slightly in his swinging strike rate, but chase rates and swing percentages are all along career norms. If there’s an outlier, it’s that Polanco has increased his contact percentage by about 7%. Aggressiveness and ambushing opposing pitchers is a blueprint that this Rocco Baldelli team has bought into, however. Minnesota has the lowest pitches per plate appearance tally in baseball, seeing just 3.68 on average.
 
As the season goes on, Polanco’s greatest adjustment will be like one many in this lineup will see. If their current attack focuses on jumping early, they’ll need to make sure pitches still warrant swinging at. With opposing pitchers looking for soft contact and to generate more swinging strikes, they’ll likely need to work down in the zone, or serve up fewer enticing offerings altogether. If Polanco can keep honed into an eye allowing him a career best 9.5% walk rate, he should be able to discern what is being wasted on him early in counts.
 
There’s no reason to believe that Jorge Polanco, or any hitter in today’s game, is going to hit remotely close to .400 over the course of a season. From a batted ball profile though, hitting the ball harder, higher, earlier, and on better offerings is a recipe destined for success. We’ll see regression, but the only question is whether that trends towards a more stable level, or just average career norms. Right now, I’d bank on that being closer to the former than the latter.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Fairly, the Minnesota Twins bullpen has been a lightning rod of discussion in 2019. From talks about what more could be done, to the breakdowns that have cost the club a couple of games, this group will remain under the microscope. With the bright lights on them, internally developed arms have been the anchors at the back of the group. Arguably the most impressive reliever has been Trevor Hildenberger, and that’s a development Twins fans can get behind.
 
Hildenberger was a 26-year-old pitching at Triple-A Rochester in 2017. He owned a 1.57 ERA across 171.2 minor league innings pitched, and as a 22nd round pick out of Cal Berkeley, was never lauded as a top prospect. Despite an impressive 10.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in his time on the farm, he needed to scratch and claw his way up the ladder to the big leagues. Owning a low-90’s fastball, this was a sidearmer that does it through deception more than velocity. Plenty of things can go wrong for a guy like that, and after initial success, they did.
 
As a rookie in 2017, Hildenberger quickly became one of Paul Molitor’s favorite options out of the bullpen. Across 42 innings he posted a 3.21 ERA backed by a 3.02 FIP and 9.4 K/9 with a 1.3 BB/9. Essentially, he continued to be everything he was on the farm and then some. Going into 2018, Molitor continued to rely on his new toy, but this time likely rode him right into the ground. Posting a 2.06 ERA through his first 36 games, Trevor had been used in almost half of the Twins contests for a total of 39.1 IP. From June 30 forward, Molitor turned to Hildenberger another 37 times for a total of 33.2 IP that saw him turn in a 9.36 ERA.
 
Fast forward to 2019 and we’ve got a fresh Trevor Hildenberger with a few more pen options to turn to. On the season, Trevor has thrown 7.2 IP allowing no earned runs, striking out 11.7 per nine, and giving up free passes at just a 2.3 BB/9 clip. To put it mildly, Hildenberger has been nothing short of exceptional. We have been down this road before however, and Minnesota will need to monitor workload to avoid a second straight season of burnout.
 
The Twins have played 19 games thus far, and Hildenberger has pitched in 11 of them. The 19 inherited runners Trevor has been handed is the most in baseball, and his 14 inherited runners stranded is five more than Rangers reliever Shawn Kelley, who comes in second. Operating as the Twins fire man, Hildenberger has come in during the highest of leverage, and slammed the door at a relatively high clip.
 
It’s not so much that it’s a surprise Minnesota is getting solid production out of Hildenberger. He’s proven capable of performing in big moments for significant stretches over the course of his major league career. What we’ll need to keep tabs on, and be mindful of, is how much this could factor into potential issues down the stretch. Right now, Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Blake Parker have been assets for Baldelli. Ryne Harper has been a nice surprise, and there’s some potential reinforcements on the way. Generating more production that that of just four or five arms is a must, however. Another option must emerge so that it’s not always on Hildenberger to carry the load.
 
Good news is that Minnesota looks to have their developed relief star back to himself in 2019. The flip side is that they’ll need to avoid going down a similar path to what took place a year ago. For now, though, take solace in the fact that when a sidearming righty runs in with runners on, they’re likely to wind up failing to cross home plate.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Today is a day like many other days during the Major League Baseball season. There’s both day and night games, and teams across the nation have scheduled contests. Unlike other days, today is a day in which every major leaguer will wear number 42. Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and his digits forever remain retired paying homage to his efforts. More than just a color barrier though, this is a story of equality. Although baseball has come a long ways in that vein, there’s still one large stain on the sport.
 
The reality is that minor league baseball is the lifeblood of future major league generations. It’s on the farm that baseball dreams are realized, and the players earning those promotions are effectively rising towards the ultimate goal. Regrettably, minor league baseball is classified as an apprenticeship, stifled on an earnings scale, and publicly lobbied against in respect to livable conditions. It’s been a problem for years, and the discussion is finally heating up.
 
Exactly one month ago today, a writer from Michigan flipped the conversation on its head. Emily Waldon, an emerging talent recently hired by The Athletic, penned a piece that effectively dropped a bomb on Minor League Baseball as a whole. No longer was the discussion regarding the minor league pay scale cordoned to select avenues of Twitter or held back by the small audience passionately discussing the topic. Waldon’s piece, in which she talked with a handful of people directly impacted by the harsh reality, reached and audience a long time coming.
 
When the story originally came out, the Tweets we’re shared thousands of times. The lines were poured over, the story itself was retold and rippled throughout baseball. Waldon not only presented factual and accurate information, but she did so in a way that was conveyed with the utmost journalistic ability. Heartstrings were tugged, action was demanded, and thought was provoked.
 
Emily didn’t know she’d be here, she didn’t realize this would be a path she’d blaze, and she certainly couldn’t have predicted being this catalyst. “Honestly, I never had the goal of being involved on the minor league circuit, it just sort of fell in my lap…The track that led to the farm system was purely to fill a need for the site I was writing for and just sort of unfolded from that point.”
 
Even after writing such an impactful piece, Waldon realizes this isn’t about her and sees the issue as something needing to be addressed. Rather than credit what has taken place, or acknowledge the necessary discussion sparked, this has just been the culmination of work she is passionate about. “There have been many people before me who have written about these issues. My piece was really just a move to try and shed more of an honest light into how the season goes for the players and their families.”
 
It's because of her ability, track record, and previous work that this was even able to come to fruition. “I've wanted to write that piece for a long time. The issue and biggest challenge was gaining enough trust from the players for them to give me their experiences.” Clearly, it’s not lost on Waldon that there’s much more than a story being uncovered here, and the lasting impact is something that is an actionable goal when the dust settles.
 
As we jump back to today, change has occurred and while it isn’t monumental in number, it’s massive from an impact standpoint. Just three days after Emily’s report the Toronto Blue Jays announced that minor leaguers would receive a 50% pay raise. Obviously MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark approved of the decision, but it’s one that the major league union needs to put more pressure on. Working towards a livable wage presents a competitive advantage for Toronto’s organization, and while that shouldn’t be a driving factor, it making a production-based impact for even one prospect would provide significant return on investment.
 
Staying true to how she has represented herself, Waldon saw the reaction to her piece through the eyes of humility and gratefulness. A landscape altering article, from the hard work of someone who has risen to national prominence on her own, the reaction was simply thankfulness. ” The response blew me away. It's what I wanted but had no idea what to expect. Players were very pleased, and I received a lot of good feedback from team officials, as well. I was very humbled by how well it was accepted.”
 
For as much good has come from this reality being placed in a greater light, and for as much notoriety has been shed on the abilities of Emily Waldon, this is just the beginning. The Toronto Blue Jays took swift and measured action, but right now, they are alone. Minor League ballplayers are still grinding away at their craft. Small cities across the country play host to teams with a couple thousand fans in attendance. Although not every one of these players is the next Mike Trout, each of them is putting in the work to help their organization achieve the ultimate goal.
 
Discussing equality doesn’t always take place regarding the same circumstances. There’s never going to be a time in which any avenue of society should cease striving to be better. We’re always working towards something, and with this story Emily can end us like this, “My hope is more players get on board with what the Blue Jays have done. The players aren't expecting Major League salaries, but they need to know their organizations support them enough to boost compensation.” No one is looking for a change that shatters expectations, but the game of baseball continuing to be one that does truly breed equality needs to trickle down a few levels farther.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Today is a day like many other days during the Major League Baseball season. There’s both day and night games, and teams across the nation have scheduled contests. Unlike other days, today is a day in which every major leaguer will wear number 42. Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and his digits forever remain retired paying homage to his efforts. More than just a color barrier though, this is a story of equality. Although baseball has come a long ways in that vein, there’s still one large stain on the sport.
 
The reality is that minor league baseball is the lifeblood of future major league generations. It’s on the farm that baseball dreams are realized, and the players earning those promotions are effectively rising towards the ultimate goal. Regrettably, minor league baseball is classified as an apprenticeship, stifled on an earnings scale, and publicly lobbied against in respect to livable conditions. It’s been a problem for years, and the discussion is finally heating up.
 
Exactly one month ago today, a writer from Michigan flipped the conversation on its head. Emily Waldon, an emerging talent recently hired by The Athletic, penned a piece that effectively dropped a bomb on Minor League Baseball as a whole. No longer was the discussion regarding the minor league pay scale cordoned to select avenues of Twitter or held back by the small audience passionately discussing the topic. Waldon’s piece, in which she talked with a handful of people directly impacted by the harsh reality, reached and audience a long time coming.
 
When the story originally came out, the Tweets we’re shared thousands of times. The lines were poured over, the story itself was retold and rippled throughout baseball. Waldon not only presented factual and accurate information, but she did so in a way that was conveyed with the utmost journalistic ability. Heartstrings were tugged, action was demanded, and thought was provoked.
 
Emily didn’t know she’d be here, she didn’t realize this would be a path she’d blaze, and she certainly couldn’t have predicted being this catalyst. “Honestly, I never had the goal of being involved on the minor league circuit, it just sort of fell in my lap…The track that led to the farm system was purely to fill a need for the site I was writing for and just sort of unfolded from that point.”
 
Even after writing such an impactful piece, Waldon realizes this isn’t about her and sees the issue as something needing to be addressed. Rather than credit what has taken place, or acknowledge the necessary discussion sparked, this has just been the culmination of work she is passionate about. “There have been many people before me who have written about these issues. My piece was really just a move to try and shed more of an honest light into how the season goes for the players and their families.”
 
It's because of her ability, track record, and previous work that this was even able to come to fruition. “I've wanted to write that piece for a long time. The issue and biggest challenge was gaining enough trust from the players for them to give me their experiences.” Clearly, it’s not lost on Waldon that there’s much more than a story being uncovered here, and the lasting impact is something that is an actionable goal when the dust settles.
 
As we jump back to today, change has occurred and while it isn’t monumental in number, it’s massive from an impact standpoint. Just three days after Emily’s report the Toronto Blue Jays announced that minor leaguers would receive a 50% pay raise. Obviously MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark approved of the decision, but it’s one that the major league union needs to put more pressure on. Working towards a livable wage presents a competitive advantage for Toronto’s organization, and while that shouldn’t be a driving factor, it making a production-based impact for even one prospect would provide significant return on investment.
 
Staying true to how she has represented herself, Waldon saw the reaction to her piece through the eyes of humility and gratefulness. A landscape altering article, from the hard work of someone who has risen to national prominence on her own, the reaction was simply thankfulness. ” The response blew me away. It's what I wanted but had no idea what to expect. Players were very pleased, and I received a lot of good feedback from team officials, as well. I was very humbled by how well it was accepted.”
 
For as much good has come from this reality being placed in a greater light, and for as much notoriety has been shed on the abilities of Emily Waldon, this is just the beginning. The Toronto Blue Jays took swift and measured action, but right now, they are alone. Minor League ballplayers are still grinding away at their craft. Small cities across the country play host to teams with a couple thousand fans in attendance. Although not every one of these players is the next Mike Trout, each of them is putting in the work to help their organization achieve the ultimate goal.
 
Discussing equality doesn’t always take place regarding the same circumstances. There’s never going to be a time in which any avenue of society should cease striving to be better. We’re always working towards something, and with this story Emily can end us like this, “My hope is more players get on board with what the Blue Jays have done. The players aren't expecting Major League salaries, but they need to know their organizations support them enough to boost compensation.” No one is looking for a change that shatters expectations, but the game of baseball continuing to be one that does truly breed equality needs to trickle down a few levels farther.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz