Perhaps I am looking at it differently than you. You're making the argument about the data on a grand scale over the course of 15-20 years. That I can agree with, that out of all potential players selected in that category, they had the best WAR. I'm looking at it on a year to year basis. And there's examples of colossal failures where a team selects something called Greg Reynolds and Luke Hochevar over Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. Maybe that's where we're disconnecting on this discussion. In theory I agree with your stats, but there's cases every year where a team selects the wrong player. And if it weren't a crapshoot, IMO, each team would know that Clayton Kershaw is going to be the best player, he's going #1 overall, followed by Scherzer and Longoria, etc. etc.