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Alex

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Everything posted by Alex

  1. Alex
    When I voiced concerns the roster had too many weak defensive outfielders (DH types) and essentially exchanging Kubel for Doumit wasn't a great idea specifically because it cost younger players chances to prove whether or not they belonged, several people responded by saying "The only thing keeping Parmelee out of the majors is Parmelee." I don't think that really holds anymore.
  2. Alex
    It's nice to see him doing well, but he's a 23 year old at High A, which is behind where you'd like to see him developmentally, even if he continues at this pace. As a point of reference, Florimon has similarly successful seasons at that age in high A.
  3. Alex
    A very similar article, but focuses on swing rates: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-new-plan-dont-swing/
  4. Alex
    I'd just point out that a lot of the margins in baseball are thin, including the difference between Florimon's defense and an average SS in terms of runs saved. Accepting and finding those margins on a personnel (player) level and a game by game (stragegy: lineup construction, etc.) level is what makes one team a playoff contender and another a bottom feeder.
  5. Alex
    I agree with this post far more than your first, though I don't necessarily agree that just because the Twins make a decision means it's the right one. As others pointed out and you point out here, because we don't have another option that is much better there's not a compelling reason not to have him play. But there are a few issues. I think the point about his defensive skillset "coming around only every so often" is not because it's challenging to find fantastic fielders that can play SS but because it's challenging to combine that skillset with a minimum level of hitting that is required to play in the majors, and that minimum level of hitting is often represented by the shortstop position. Even at the most important defensive position, there is a minimum standard for hitting because a glove can only make up for so much poor hitting. Then there's a case that some might make that he's a good, but overrated SS. As an example, he ranks right in the middle of ML shortstops in Fangraphs UZR/150 in 2013. While we could debate the exact accuracy of such statistics, unique talents tend not to rank in the middle.
  6. Alex
    The limbo line for me is when he hits bad enough that you'd prefer to DH him over the pitcher. The Hicks comparison, while valid from small sample size standpoint doesn't hold up in other ways, like the fact (already mentioned) that he just hasn't hit -- ever. The other reason it's bad is that Hicks was 23 last year and Florimon is 27 this year and this isn't his first exposure to major league pitching (though he doesn't have 1000 plate appearances yet). Is Escobar really that bad defensively? I realize his numbers don't look much better, but he wasn't getting regular at bats and he has a smaller number.
  7. Alex
    Actually, if Dozier really has this kind of power, he might be a better a candidate for#2 than Joe, and Joe would actually make a great lead off hitter.
  8. Alex
    I have it on good authority TC Bear's backup outfielder of choice was Alex Presley.
  9. Alex
    Presley didn't have the power Hicks had but his .336 OBP makes him far more valuable if he can continue to produce that, which may be doubtful and that's why you see the difference in OPS. That's the most concerning aspect of Hicks's struggles is that he never found the ability to even draw walks and he's always had a high number of strikeouts, which we can expect to be higher in the majors. It wasn't good, not really ever, with the exception of facing LHP, but that's the less frequent platoon split, and he's too young to be platooned since you want him to get as many at bats as possible.
  10. Alex
    We'll see how Kubel hits this season, but he was terrible last year, way worse than Presley.
  11. Alex
    No, I meant in terms of on the market (IE what we could do with his money, which is really nothing at this point). We don't actually know that Mauer will "not be good enough" in two years. He could still be one of this team's top two or three hitters and not as replaceable as many would like to think, especially if the move to first adds to his longevity. Despite that he might not be worth that contract, he's not as replaceable (or "near enough") as people might think.
  12. Alex
    Be specific please. Which two players currently available are going to hit better than Mauer or even close? None will hit better against RHP. There may be some that will hit better against LHP, but we actually have options on the team that can do that. Trading him will result in a net loss. We actually have options on the roster that would be available to play 1B and hit from the other side. Trading Mauer continues to make zero sense. 1. There are no players available that will make up for the loss of production in FA, nor multiple players. 2. The Twins still could still sign players if needed/want -- his salary isn't crippling. 3. The Twins aren't going to have need to sign in-house players for some time so they don't need to clear salary immediately.
  13. Alex
    A lot of people are putting value into stolen bases based on the fact that Florimon stole a grand total of 16. 16! This isn't 30 or more player who never gets caught, though to his credit, he is between 70-75% and was slightly above the break even point so his stolen bases added some value, but frankly, it's minimal. It's one of the most overrated aspects of a player in the modern game despite the fact that there's plenty of research to show that a high success rate is necessary because making an out is so much worse. We could also hypothetically assume that he's going to hit .330 with a .400 OBP, but it's unlikely. Of course, that's a stretch Florimon just doesn't have plate discipline and he got worse as he progressed through the minors -- not better, which has continued (though he's improved slightly from last year), I think it's a very rosy picture to expect his OBP to improve by 40 points.
  14. Alex
    Yes, but that list shortens up, sometimes dramatically as teams re-sign their own players. It's a bad idea, IMO, to try to project out more than a season. It' also worth noting if the Twins are significantly better, they might not have 1st round protection for that class of FA.
  15. Alex
    Pretty much exactly what I was going to say. They exceeded my expectations partially because they were so low and they still have a lot of holes.
  16. Alex
    Using the acronym "FIP" and then saying you're not referring to the statistic is confusing to me. If you have some measurement you are using that shows he was a HOF and not just a very good pitcher, why don't you actually use it rather than vaguely refer to it? I have read the statistics in the thread and others and there are all sorts. How many innings do you want? What stats do you want? I redid the sort for 3K innings which left me with 132 pitchers. Morris is 116th in FIP, 117th in BB/9, 119th in HR/9, though he does come in 29th in K/9. The bottom line is that it doesn't matter what statistic you use, Morris is can not be considered a hall of fame pitcher, unless you're willing to open up the Hall to a lot of other pitchers.
  17. Alex
    It does? Career ERA: 3.90 Career FIP 3.94 Could you explain how FIP shows him in a better light? He ranks 659th amongst starting pitchers with more than 1000 IP.
  18. Alex
    I think there's a difference between never having "too much start pitching" and never having "too much good starting pitching." No one was against the Twins acquiring good starting pitching, and hopefully Pelfrey is better and Hughes pitches better at Target Field and/or recognizes his potential. Hopefully the Twins did acquire upgrades that will help them both short and long term and that they are able to transition players that could have higher upside or those they let go aren't missed opportunities.
  19. Alex
    I just want to add agreement that there is a disconnect between busting both myths, even if the the conclusions are technically true. Moving two or three pitchers to the pen who aren't proven relievers is a long shot to make the pen better So, solving one problem with the other, in this case, doesn't make sense.
  20. Alex
    I actually think it is, but there is a balance that could be struck, especially when we have signed and still have marginal pitchers in the rotation. We're talking about pitchers who are not drastically, or even definitively, better here. So, saying the risk is greater to give these guys another shot is a complete matter of opinion, especially as all three have had success in the majors. If we are evaluating players by one season, we should also be incredibly critical of the Hughes and Pelfrey signings. As Leviathan points out, there are other players we should then be looking to get rid of including Hicks, Willingham, Plouffe, etc..
  21. Alex
    Valid point that their years are limited, but it's still more value (if they are successful), less risk, and cheaper than going out on the FA market. If they do fail another year, you can make the same decision that is being discussed now but would have more information to do so and won't really be any worse off.
  22. Alex
    This is the crux of the argument in that, as things stand now, they'll likely won't get that chance with the Twins because they'll be picked up off waivers. So -- again, if no other moves are made -- the Twins will lose the chance to see if those players do have a high upside.
  23. Alex
    Considering they didn't do that last year with Worley and save an option year, no.
  24. Alex
    It's been an interesting discussion as there are valid points on both sides and it seems to come down to our own individual approach to how a baseball team should be built. The bottom line for me is that it is important for the team to get better immediately. However I am worried they could be sacrificing long term value for marginal increase in success (depending on who you don't like: Hughes, Pelfrey, or Correia), even if I like the overall approach. We're not talking about an option here between Diamond and Anibal Sanchez. If any of the pitchers -- that are now out of options -- we're talking about (Worley, Deduno, Diamond) could become solid #4 or #5, that has a lot of value at their contract level for multiple years. It's possible that they won't, but this is a season where it might be worth a couple of wins to leave room and give a couple of them a last shot. For those looking at creative solutions, I hope you are correct, that the Twins will figure out a way to create some space and get something of value in return. I'm not as confident, but they did do it to some extent on the offensive side, where it looked like they were getting heavy with DH types, and it's similar in a lot of ways here.
  25. Alex
    This discussion has two different parts: 1) Does this move with Mastro mean the Twins will give the starting CF job to Hicks? My answer is yes. 2) Should they? No. I won't go into detail because it's really no different than the discussions on this last season.
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