Alex
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Everything posted by Alex
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I very much appreciate the research, though I'll admit I'm still confused by the release in terms of the actual transaction. Was it a non-tender situation? I thought it was a release after he passed through waivers? I agree it would be interesting to hear his own reflection on that.
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Petty and convoluted, not contrived. Petty because it was almost a decade ago and everyone had a chance at him. Convoluted because we don't really know how much longer the Twins would have had him anyway and the overall impact it actually had on the team. Sure we can put forth theories of contracts, etc..but none of that means anything as there's too much time between then and now to know how it all would have played out. That's the point I'm trying to make: nothing wrong with being upset about it, but let's keep it in perspective. As for the first paragraph, you're saying I acknowledged much more than I did I my post, putting a ton of words in my mouth, which was simply about flipping players at the end of their contracts.
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Absolutely. No doubt there. Of those six, really only Morneau and Mauer were signed to significant long term deals, I think the others were bought out arbitration contracts and a couple extended an extra year or two. (I tried to do some research but couldn't actually find specifics, so I'm just going by the years/numbers to make educated guesses). Absolutely, but at that point, the Twins didn't have as good of a record of flipping players late in their contracts for "good players." See the above list -- who have the Twins gotten for them? Like I said, there certainly were issues with how they handled Ortiz and there are even concerns from that situation that linger to today's team about how the Twins handle players. However, even I think it's really petty and convoluted to hold this one over them for so long and I have been almost as critical of the front office as anyone here.
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I get (and agree) that it was a clear mistake. However, I'm really not buying the idea it set the franchise "back" in Hershel Walker type fashion. Maybe he helps the team to be more competitive with the Yankees in 2003 and 2004 (but two wins worth?) and I don't see how he's around after that.
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Absolutely, but does quoting the success of low payroll teams as support for not spending make sense when you have nothing in common with them?
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I think it's fine to be frustrated that he was let go for nothing, but it seemed a lot of teams felt the same way. Yes, the Twins could have kept him and gotten a couple more years, but to think the Twins would have had him beyond that and signed him to a big contract is over the top. There's no way he would have been a Twin long term, so I don't think it's worth still being frustrated over.
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I thought Aaron's take on the payroll question was excellent where Ryan points to the A's and Rays as teams that win without low payroll but then the Twins don't really do anything they do.
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IMO, it misses massive points of the entire argument. And while I completely understand the value of Mauer at catcher, the fact that the team has enough problems is exactly why Mauer could move to 1B next year, even if it's only for a season. There's no Prince Fielder over there that he'd be knocking out of position. His "special" status is only necessary if this team is going to compete. Health long term is far more important right now. Then, who are the Twins going to pursue in FA that hit .800+OPS? Lets see some names. As I mentioned, there is a smaller number than people seem to think (less than 50 players last season). I'll agree, though, that it would be easier and cheaper to find, say, a .750 OPS first baseman than catcher. But, there are other problems going after a first baseman in FA, like what happens if Mauer isn't going to play C? There isn't a lot known at this point, so it would be tough to move forward at this point on something like that.
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I hated that exchange. I hope it sounded better than it came across in reading it because TR came across as a smug jerk who acted as if he had hidden information and that fans have no clue.
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I don't think anyone, literally -- not a single person, has said anything close to this on any of the threads I've read here. The point most people make is that the situation the Twins are now in that they can actually build the farm system and have resources to maintain a competitive (not necessarily division winning) team. However, they've been unable to do it and have even seemed unwilling to try.
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Fact is, though I'm glad you pointed it out, the distinction doesn't matter. Mauer is a good enough hitter that he be starting at 1B for most teams in the MLB all all but a couple of AL teams at DH.
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I'm not even going to address the contract issue. It just doesn't impact the Twins in a meaningful way in the immediate future. There were less than 50 players with an OPS over .800 last season. Mauer was 16th. Of those 50 players, just 33 had a higher slugging. That's pretty darn valuable regardless. Is it more valuable at catcher? Obviously. But among first basemen, his OPS and SLG would rank 5th and 10th respectively. If you want to use wOBA Mauer looks even better and would rank third among first basemen.
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Ok. It seemed implied in your stance and some of the things you said, especially regarding risk, which you just explained better as value and not hitting. Obviously, some of us prefer the risk and value long term from the short term value of him catching. Assuming no more concussions, how many seasons do you think he'll be catching 80-90 or more games a season?
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It's not just a small sample size issue, it's also that there are plenty of reasons to consider your conclusions from the data hugely flawed are not representative of what a move to first base would actually mean for his hitting. -All of his PAs at 1B have come in seasons where he is primarily a catcher. -His PAs at 1B are few and scattered among several seasons -When Mauer played first base in the past, it was typically because he wasn't healthy enough to play catcher. So, any hitting numbers at 1B should be assessed with that in mind. Now, if you want to continue to stubbornly believe that there is actually significant risk that he would be a worse hitter at 1B, based solely on those stats, that's really your call, but don't be surprised when they are dismissed. IMO, the "conjecture" (which at the very least is an understanding of what catching does to a player's body) is just as valid as those stats. Which is to say, neither mean anything until we see a full year where Mauer plays mostly first base.
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I'd love to see anything that points this. I think he uses the term "analytics" loosely.
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Great read, thanks. It reminds me that couple weeks ago, my daughter, who is six, and I were watching the Pirates in the playoffs. She recognized Morneau immediately -- she has his jersey. Liriano was pitching, so I pointed out he was a former Twin as well. We enjoyed a couple innings together, but over the course of the those innings I explained "playoffs" and why the Twins weren't playing. A few days later, I had the playoffs on again and she told me, "Mauer's not going to be a Twin much longer is he?" Baffled by where this comment came from, I reassured her that he'll likely be a Twin almost until she becomes a teenager. I then asked why she thought that, and she said, "All the good players go play for other teams." It made me realize not just how long ago 1991 was, but how long ago 2009 feels, too.
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For what it's worth, through Sept 13, 18 players in the MLB had been placed on the 7 Day Concussion DL. Of those 18, 10 were catchers. With that information, it's tough to argue there's equal risk at other positions. A link to the article: For catchers, concussion dangers all too real
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I absolutely agree. One thing I've found interesting, at least with Twins that have been out for a significant time with concussions, is their sports background, even if they haven't had concussions, or rather been diagnosed with them, in their past. Mauer has caught and he played football in high school. Denard Span played football. Morneau and Koskie were both hockey players. Now, it's probably true that a lot of pro players were multi-sport athletes, but it's just something I thought was interesting
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Again, that's fair a point, but I think you tried to come across pretty heavily on a semantical point (the tense chosen by the poster), who by the way, just stated Mauer's offense "suffers when he catches" not "he's a better hitter when he plays 1B." There's a lot of room for interpretation there, for example did the poster mean on a daily basis or over a season? Still no evidence either way for that as he's played significant numbers of games at catcher every season, so it's tough to know for sure. However, it's actually a very reasonable stance to take that Mauer would be a better hitter at 1B based on the lack of evidence but other things we know about catching and catchers. For example, look at Mike Napoli. He had one of his better and most healthy seasons playing first base all year. He did it at age 32 and also said he's never had legs this fresh this late in the year. Does that mean a loss of potential value within a season? Absolutely, even though Napoli had one of his healthiest and better hitting seasons, his overall value was not where it would be if he were at catcher (based on BBREF WAR). But, like we've said, there are plenty of other reasons to move Mauer.
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That's fair, that there's no evidence to support it. I just pointed out that you arguing it as a "falsehood" based on 200ish PA isn't useful evidence either as it ignores the context of those PAs. I don't think that arguing he's a better hitter at catcher is any more valid because, imo, we just don't know. You can argue it's not a "convincing argument" but I don't find your statistics, in this case, compelling, and I'm normally way on the side of the "statheads" on this site. I'd like to see what he does at 1B for a full season before I make that judgement, especially in a meaningless season, which looks like it will be the case next season...
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If you think throwing up those two statlines (one of which involves less than 300 PAs) is sufficient evidence that he'd be a better hitter at catcher, that's fine. To me, because I realize the context that those at-bats came, they mean pretty much next to nothing, especially in terms of future predictability. If he gets 500 PAs at 1B in the next season (2014) and then returns to catching after that and hits better (2015) I could be convinced. Or, have there been a lot of studies that show players hit differently moving positions? If there are, I haven't read any. To your question, I'm not convinced he WILL be a better hitter at 1B, but I can't imagine he'd be worse. It's also tough to compare as he'll be a year older (unless something similar to what I suggested happens above). Back to DL---no, you can't protect him completely, but if he catches, he will get more foul balls off the facemask, which led to concussions for several catchers last season, and the next time it happens is likely to be more severe. Did first baseman last season have more concussions? If so, I'd agree that we should keep him at catcher. At some point, especially in terms of brain injuries, I think there's more responsibility involved than simply what value he provides. If that does nothing for you, then consider that the next foul ball of his mask could end his career and then you get very little value after that. Finally, if the Twins are headed to 90 losses again next season, there's really no point, in my opinion, to him catching at all.
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I agree that Mauer has more value at catcher -- there's no doubt. But for his health, I'd have no problem with a move to first. And come on, there there's no falsehood to kill. Simply posting those numbers is incomplete analysis at best. Mauer has just 232 PAs at 1B and most has often played 1B as a day off of catching (so his legs wouldn't be fresh) or coming off of injury (again, likely not at the top of his game). So, it's not surprising that his numbers are lower. Not to mention his peak season, 2009, he didn't play 1B at all. His 29 HR were all hit at catcher, skewing that slugging heavily in his favor.
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Yeah, it's something they should try, but I'd be surprised if the Twins do that.
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Unless he starts turning things around quickly, he won't have much longer in this league unfortunately. I think 1-2 at most.
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. This fits with a lot of other aspects of the organization in terms of risk: hiring from within, keeping Gardy, and their approach to free agency. It's only when they have low expectations and are taking some risk anyway (late picks, young international talent) that they are willing to assume a higher level of risk.