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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    And this is why I like wRC+ more than traditional stats. Gives us a better picture of how many runs the player created with his offensive contributions, not just HR and RBI. And I will go back to this scenario, which comes up quite a bit. Guy gets a walk, the next guy gets a single to RF and the guy goes from 1st to 3rd. The next guy creates an out by hitting the ball just deep enough to score the guy on 3B. The guy on first gets a run scored, the guy who flew out gets an RBI, and the guy who put the runner at 3B where he would be able to score on a SAC fly gets no credit, at all, in traditional stat line in regards to that guy scoring, yet he was vital to the guy scoring.
  2. jimmer
    I only use Fangraphs for defensive metrics stuff. I find them the most reliable, so I can't speak for other places or the quality/accuracy of their info. Well, Trout played at different positions so comparing him to other CFs as opposed to other LF will show an issue. Lagares, I haven't watched him much this season, but the season is still early, so who knows. He was out of his mind very good the last two seasons and still projects very good for the season. But finding a select group of random players you think are outliers doesn't negate an overall process. In any event, I'm not trying to convince you to trust these metrics, they have issues and even the people who are the most staunch defenders of metrics know that (you can look at Dave Cameron's chat on Wednesday at Fangraphs and he says the same thing), but the question is, what is a better way currently available to evaluate? As I pointed out in our debate, you have to know how and when to use them. And you have to know how to read the info too so as not to misread it and draw a conclusion based on that. But now we've gotten off the Torii Hunter part of the metric conversation, so I'm going to stop my part of the discussion with you here. It shouldn't be taking place here. So unless we want to continue by PM, I'll just say I enjoyed the conversation, Hrbowski.
  3. jimmer
    I looked at each player's Fangraphs page for each player you mentioned. In Pillars case he's leading the majors in DRS in LF at 7 but he hasn't just played LF he's also played CF and he has 2 DRS there. Hence the 9. Cain says 12 for this year. Not sure where it says 14 (except last year and just in CF, he had 10 more in RF). And I only see 9 for Kiermaier. He has 10 for his career in CF, maybe that's where the 10 comes from? If you want to link what you're looking at, that'd be great.
  4. jimmer
    If you look at the title of this thread, it's to talk about whether or not Hunter has actually been good on defense this year and it brings up the metrics. People are talking about the OP's topic. And people should be able to enjoy the game the way that works for them. Discussing a team's good points and bad points, for some, doesn't diminish the enjoyment of the game, their love of their team, or the Twins winning. It's a discussion is all. Not sure why this bothers you so much.
  5. jimmer
    Really depends on whether or not the person knows how and when to apply them. For example, you say that the big differences in Hunter's rankings less than 2 months into this season shows how flawed the stats are. Yet the SAME stats last year had the following rankings for Hunter as follows: Last in DRS, Last in UZR, Last in Def. These are the same stats that you say are flawed, in part, because they show such a difference in rankings after not even two months but, after a full year in 2014, the rankings are matched exact. It doesn't always end up that way, but most of the time very close, and the occasional outlier wouldn't make it invalid anyway. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 If you follow the link and look at those three stats (DRS, UZR and Def) for each RF, you'll see that players are very close in each ranking at all three stats. Won't always be exact because they measure different things.
  6. jimmer
    Brock, I get what you're saying and I'm just enjoying the conversation. BTW, for his career, Mauer's OPS is 20% better than his normal OPS with a .362 BABIP.
  7. jimmer
    all I'm saying is this, and I probably wasn't clear, just because a league does a bit better as whole in RISP doesn't mean 'almost every batter does better with RISP'. Some do way better, which skews the numbers, some do slightly worse or way worse, etc. I think what's mostly been determined is that over the course of a long career, hitters will bat close to their career overall numbers norms, whether it's with RISP or not. So the great hitters will hit great with RISP and the bad hitters won't.
  8. jimmer
    And even so, how many do better than Joe has done over the course of a career so long? Because that's truly the main point in regards to this thread when talking about how he's all of a sudden become and RBI guy this year or clutch this year.
  9. jimmer
    The year is early, some players do so much better that it skews the averages But to say almost every batter does better with RISP for a few months and then can maintain that kind of much better numbers over a long career is a different thing, IMO.
  10. jimmer
    Please read this http://stats.seandolinar.com/risp/ in the wrap-up the writer says: ' I don’t exactly have an explanation, but it appears that there are more MLBers that bat worse with RISP than overall. My one thought is that pitchers are pitching more cautiously or that fresh relief pitchers are more likely to come into the game when there’s a runner in scoring position.'
  11. jimmer
    Do you have supporting evidence to support that theory? Please read this http://stats.seandolinar.com/risp/ in the wrap-up the writer says: ' I don’t exactly have an explanation, but it appears that there are more MLBers that bat worse with RISP than overall. My one thought is that pitchers are pitching more cautiously or that fresh relief pitchers are more likely to come into the game when there’s a runner in scoring position.' In any event, how many have players have numbers that are that good over the course of a career that long. Even if the theory is correct, which I've never heard until now, they'd still need to be a better line than Mauer's numbers with RISP, on average, to show he hasn't been very good in those situations.
  12. jimmer
    Prior to this year, the strike zone (as it was being called) had been expanding each year for the last 5 years (which helps pitchers). http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-expansion-is-out-of-control/ For a player with such a an exact feel for the strike zone, these changes are bound to hurt him. Not that it's the only reason we've seen a steady rise in his Ks, but it's got to be a factor.
  13. jimmer
    For his career, does he take a lot of walks in those situations because some pitchers/teams would rather not give him anything decent to hit in those situations (especially if it's in a critical situation). because he does so well in those situations (and because he's such a good hitter, period)? Notice 1/3 of the walks he has in those situations are intentional walks? I wonder how many more are because they nibble around and say, 'well, if I can get him to swing at something bad and get weak contact or a strikeout, that's fine, but If not putting him on base isn't as bad as the alternative?' If I was someone who thought the RBI stat was a good way to judge a hitter, I would be pretty happy with the amount Mauer has right now, but he's been below average at creating runs this season, so overall, his overall offensive performance has been bad, which hurts me to say.
  14. jimmer
    If I remember correctly, Perkins has also said that it's currently unrealistic because relievers (like most players) are set in their ways after having being given defined roles but if these relievers were never given specified roles (because again, their jobs is to pitch and get guys out), it shouldn't matter. Especially for guy who are just asked to go between 1-2 innings during any given game. Seriously. I doubt it makes a difference if you ask Holland to come in to start the 8th and go 1 inning and then tell Davis to go out for the 9th and finish the game. I don't think it'd matter one bit. Throw Hererra in there too. Said something like it'd be hard at this point to get guys at the major league level to do it, that the change would have to start in the minors. So it's not that the theory is wrong, it's that the implementation would take time. Pretty sure it was him in another interview, but if it wasn't, it was another stat savvy pitcher. Closers get paid more and a lot of teams look at the save stat, so they all want to be the official closer.
  15. jimmer
    Mike, you have PM
  16. jimmer
    For his career, Mauer bats .333/.457/.480 with RISP. Those numbers are better than his career slashline in every category. Yes, this year his numbers with RISP are even better, but it's not like he's always been a slacker in RBI situations. RBI is a stat this is dependent on opportunities. Dependent on other players getting into scoring position. His clutch numbers are also very good across the board for his career, for those who talk about how clutch he has or hasn't been in his career. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=Career&t=b
  17. jimmer
    Overall, he's been a plus player for us and that's a good thing. According to the metrics, he's tied for last in DRS, he's tied for 3rd in plays made outside of zone, and he's been middle of the road in range. UZR is the worst tool to use this early in the season, so I won't use that. I don't think 2014 was an outlier for him because 2013 was also bad for him defensively(though not AS bad as 2014) and one would expect the closer he gets to 40, his defense would trend down which is exactly what happened between 2013 and 2014. In any event, the metrics will normalize and look closer to level when the season is over. He's a good or as bad as your opinion thinks he is on defense. But he's almost 40 and it shouldn't surprise anyone that some of us would see that he's just not good on defense anymore as we remember nor as good as a lot of the young studs out there are that we also see. At this point, he's what Jeter was a good chunk of his career. He makes the plays he gets to, he's sure handed, he's smart on defense and he makes an occasional good play (the last thing is something almost every player does).
  18. jimmer
    RBI doesn't measure clutch nor does DRS. Might be the only way they are alike.
  19. jimmer
    To answer your request, Of the 24 qualifying RF there is still no RF with a worse DRS (defensive runs saved, which isn't anything like RBI) than Hunter. He is tied with Cruz and Choo for the bottom spot. He's almost 40. One would expect him to be not nearly as good defensively as he was when we first had him. One would expect a guy almost 40 to just not be that good out there anymore. This is not an uncommon occurence, And if one watches enough baseball games nowadays and sees what some of these players are doing defensively (as teams start to focus more on defense), there's a clear difference in what we see from Torii and what we see from Heyward, Stanton, Harper or Reddick. So IMO, yeah, he is still pretty bad out there. That's what I've seen from him the last couple years and it's what I see this year. He doesn't pass the eye test once you really watch how well the RFs in baseball are playing nowadays. But it also makes sense that when comparing an almost 40 year old to kids in their 20s and early 30s, he just isn't going to have the range. And I imagine if he was just some other almost 40 year old former very good defensive player we picked up (as opposed to it being such a beloved former Twin), people would be going out and being so bothered by the idea that someone his age just really isn't at all good on defense anymore.
  20. jimmer
    Really? Where? In '89 he had 36 appearances with the Mets as a reliever, then he had 11 appearances, all of them starts, with the Twins after being traded.. Then he went back to being a reliever in '90 with the Twins.
  21. jimmer
    Aguilera was converted to reliever by the Mets prior to coming to the Twins. The Twins switched him back to starter, and then put him in the bullpen the next season. Nathan was a reliever with the Giants the season before when we got him.
  22. jimmer
    If we call Mollie a savant, wouldn't the proper way to say it be something like Savantie? :-)
  23. jimmer
    yep, they both get team accomplishments put on their individual stat lines :-)
  24. jimmer
    Pitchers aren't like position players. Asking players to play out of their normal position is something I would try to avoid, especially IFs in the OF and OFs in the IF, but pitchers? They pitch. That's what they do. They come in to get batters out. Their approach is the same. The need to have relief pitchers with definite roles is just odd to me. How about telling your relievers that no one has a role, and that they need to just be prepared to pitch whenever they are called upon? With the possible exception of guys you use as long relievers. I get the flip side of the argument. The Royals situation, but seriously, those three in the 7, 8 and closer roles are so awesome I think it's about their abilities more than it is about being comfortable in a role. If they decided Davis is the 'closer' instead of Holland, I doubt they miss a beat.
  25. jimmer
    I can agree with this for the most part, though I think there are some instances where a move is wrong no matter what. Like batting a guy with a sub .270 OBP in the leadoff spot.
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