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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL. In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring. The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.
  2. jimmer
    I'm a big fan of a stat called wRC+ (and I know a lot of people don't like metrics, so take it for what you will) For the few who don't know, it's a stat that tells us about a player's ability to create runs compared to others in the league and isn't positionally adjusted, meaning if a catcher had a 130 wRC+ as a catcher, he'd have it as a 1B. For his career, Mauer's wRC+ is in the 130s. In 2012 it was in the 130s and in 2013 in was in the 140s. In the 130s is considered above average. His numbers are closer to the lower level of great than the lower line of of above average (so basically above above average).We have no established player on our team that has proven they are a better run creator than a normal Mauer and we only had one starter last year above a wRC+ of 118 9 (and we can add Hunter as one with a wRC+ of below 118), and that was Santana in the low 130s helped by his BABIP over .400, which I doubt is sustainable. Even if his speed helps him have a better than league average BABIP, it will still very likely be much lower than .400. So if we believe Mauer will be closer to his normal career performance... Below is a good read for those interested. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
  3. jimmer
    Our guys batting first last year got on base at a .328 clip and only had 37 doubles and 6 triples. That's not just the first inning, that's over all 767 PA that happened for our hitters batting in the one spot. Knowing that, I'm not sure how many scenarios our #2 hitter would have to drive in runner from scoring position in the first inning of a game, but I'm guessing we shouldn't disqualify a batter from the #2 spot based on such a criteria that doesn't happen anywhere enough over the course of a whole season to matter.
  4. jimmer
    Since I mentioned Hunter's OPS+ with RISP last year being 93, I thought I'd also point out that our team OPS+ with RISP was 104.
  5. jimmer
    What if you speediest guy only gets on base at like a .305 OBP or lower clip. Fastest guy from home to dugout? If he doesn't get on base a lot, it doesn't matter how fast he is.
  6. jimmer
    It's about credit when someone says so and so player is a good run producer because he has X amount of RBI and argument that comes up time and time again.
  7. jimmer
    In regards to the scenario in italics, Mauer can just advance a runner by getting a hit or a walk? Something he's normally very good at (last year, clearly a down year). Do we advocate sacrificing one of the precious 27 outs we get to advance a runner one spot on a regular basis, especially in the 1st inning? Also in that bolded scenario, when batting 2nd only matters the first time through a lineup, how often is the leadoff guy on 2nd base for the #2 hitter to score anyway? And how many times did either scenario happen last year in the first inning, do you think? Then there are the 3-5 other PAs of the game that come up after that first inning. Do we really believe that the Mauer we saw last year is going to be the same guy we see in the next few years? Even if he is, and I doubt that, he'll still has the best OBP on the team.
  8. jimmer
    His numbers with RISP don't suggest he had a knack for it last year or the year before really. Overall RBI might suggest he did but not how he actually did in those situations. Plouffe did considerably better with RISP than Hunter (OPS+ of 113 as opposed to Hunter's 93), and had less RBI than Hunter.
  9. jimmer
    Yes and played on a different team. Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own. Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time. Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever. Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B. Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy. The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.
  10. jimmer
    Yes I would unless he was a big time slugger and then he'd still be lower like 7th. For the most part, my low OBP guy I'd have bat 9th.
  11. jimmer
    Almost all 'conventional wisdom' needs to be looked at under multiple microscopes. IMO, best idea is to have your best OBP guys get as many PAs as possible.
  12. jimmer
    Torii Hunter. the RBI guy. hit .274 with an OPS+ of 93 (meaning below league average) last year with RISP.
  13. jimmer
    how did you know? :-)
  14. jimmer
    I own some beachfront property in Kansas :-)
  15. jimmer
    First, I like how 1B is covered, Like I said a few times, this will work itself out. Some will hit, some won't. Things have a way of working themselves out. I'm a Hicks believer too and the talent may be there, but it may never evolve. not going to count him as a solid OF. Gomez, I believe, had to leave to shine and letting Hardy loose was just plain dumb. That's on Gardy who pushed Smith to do it and Smith for letting Gardy push him.
  16. jimmer
    waiting on hopes and dreams. Arcia is a DH type who has to play OF because we have Vargas, another DH type. Hunter should likely just be DHing or coaching (somewhere else). Hicks? Who knows. Certainly not a known quantity. Who knows how long Rosario will go. Will he get hit again for a positive drug hit. Buxton is coming. That's one.
  17. jimmer
    Nolasco chose to go to Minnesota. Makes no sense to slam the place. Didn't have to pick here. He likely could have taken a good chunk less to play somewhere else.
  18. jimmer
    'I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.' In my opinion, while some may think there are 30 #1 pitchers (one for each team) I don't think many people look at it that way. Some teams have, in quality, more than one #1 pitcher. Some teams don't have any. I'd probably say there's maybe 15-20 in MLB that can truly be called an Ace.
  19. jimmer
    We are lacking quality defensive OFs and overall proven MLB starting OFs that aren't close to getting their AARP card. IMO, we are just waiting on hopes and dreams. As far as I'm concerned, right now our OF isn't crowded in the least...at least not with starting MLB quality OFs.
  20. jimmer
    He only had one way to go for his K% and baseball made an effort to expand strike zone. Strikeouts are up across MLB so it seems odd we would expect that not to affect our players, especially ones with a keen eye for what has been a strike. it's no wonder MLB is looking into the strike zone again. And, for his career, Mauer has been a very good run creator (wRC+ of 131). He was as recently as 2013 (wRC+ of 143). If he continues to hit like he did in 2014, I'll be concerned, but we saw him going back to normal in the 2nd half (wRC+ of 125). I like his chances of being more like the Joe we've seen most of his career (minus 2009).
  21. jimmer
    Mauer struck out less than 20% of the time (not even in the top 60 in K%), he's coming off a concussion, and they expanded the strike zone which is going to affect a guy with such an exact feel for what is, and isn't, a strike. As they adjust the strike zone and the concussion symptoms get smaller and smaller, I imagine his Ks will go back down. Even if they don't, he didn't strike out a ton anyway. On top of that, he's had one really bad year after tons of good ones.
  22. jimmer
    It would concern me because if he's striking out that much in AA, I just imagine how much he'd K in the majors (not that Ks, by themselves, is a huge deal to me). I would also figure the other numbers would go down as well due to better competition. And, of course, the defense being poor.
  23. jimmer
    He hasn't even turned 22 yet. I'd be happy if he spent the whole minor league season in the minors shaking off the rust.
  24. jimmer
    I guess I can fall back on what I said earlier: 'I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.' Obviously if Sano's defense is average and he's hitting a ton like so many expect him to right out the gate, then we have some fantastic decisions to make.
  25. jimmer
    and no one is saying that.
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