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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    right, but as long as we remember that a base on balls extends the inning by one batter, adds another a potential run to the basepads, and there isn't much of a chance of the batter/runner getting thrown out on a base on balls:-) again, the study I provided is just something to CONSIDER if we're going to start pushing our team to start attempting to steal a lot. I'm not sure I buy it but I appreciate the people who puts years into the study to give us an actual study's result as opposed to just saying they have value because we've been told forever they do or cause we think it does. I can't PROVE the study is wrong, nor have I read any studies that make a better argument saying it's wrong, so I'm not going to for sure say it is wrong. I'm going to allow for the possibility that what I was told most of my life and what I believed for some of my life might be wrong.
  2. jimmer
    Just a question. Has there been a new study that says other-wise? I haven't seen one. Has anyone else?
  3. jimmer
    and the study done over years didn't say there was NO value and NO positive, just that the positive is negligible over the course of the season to a team's wins and losses when factoring in stolen bases and caught stealing.
  4. jimmer
    True. But over the course of the a season, we have to factor in the caught stealing numbers too and how that affected things. Since the stolen base attempt has a chance to fail too. And we do count them as doubles, just like we do count successful stolen bases as stolen bases. Did I suggest we shouldn't? It's a stat. The question is the value of the stolen bases stat. Again, just passing info on studies done by people over years and years.
  5. jimmer
    Potential value, not value for sure. Value only if the stolen base results in scoring. Like it's likely good strategy if playing for one run towards the end of the game if the stolen base gets the runner in scoring position AND THEN he's knocked in. But if he steals 2B and get stranded, no value at all, even if it was considered good strategy.
  6. jimmer
    I'm not hard pressed to get at anything, I'm sharing info. Something interesting I read a long time ago. I'm not downgrading Henderson as a player and neither is Bill James. Just talking about the stolen base. Not Home Runs, Not OBP. It's not hard to believe that many stolen bases don't actually result in a lot of runs. Steal 2nd base, 3rd out happens right after, guy is left at 2B. Stolen base didn't result in anything.
  7. jimmer
    Bill James did a study on Rickey Henderson's 1982 or 1983 season in regards to stolen bases. I'm going by memory and it been a long time since I read the article. Used to be a simple google search to find and now I can't find it for the life of me. Perhaps that's because ESPN's Ralph Miley decided to basically call James a racist because of that study. Edit, found it: 'Yet for all the fame they're bringing him, Henderson's stolen-base exploits this year have done virtually nothing to help his team from a dismal fate. Why? Despite the attention they command, stolen bases are not, I repeat, very important. Picture a vast desert. A single tumbleweed blowing across the landscape will attract the eye because it's the only thing moving. A runner stealing bases draws attention not because what he's doing is important, but because he is moving.' 'How important are stolen bases? In an article in the 1976 Journal of the Society of American Baseball Research, George Wiley reported on many years of study to determine the correlation between records in each statistical category and team success. He found the correlation between stolen bases and team wins "so low as to conclude that in themselves they have little or no effect on final team standing." http://www.si.com/vault/1982/09/06/624392/so-whats-all-the-fuss
  8. jimmer
    Yes, like he's very much involved in creating a run when his single/double gets a guy from 1st to 3rd so the next guy can make an out with a ball deep enough to score the guy now sitting on 3B. Was his contribution to the run scoring not key even though he didn't get a run scored or an RBI?
  9. jimmer
    That's 'runs produced' not 'runs created', two different stats. And that stat uses two stats heavily dependent on other player's actions. The actual runs created stat, he was 50th in the majors in 2013 even though he missed the last 6 weeks. RC= on-base factor times advancement factor divided by opportunity factor. Which, in it's easiest calculation (one that uses info we grew up knowing) is: (H+BB)X TB divided by AB+BB. H=hits, BB= walks, TB= total bases.
  10. jimmer
    I have not argued for Mauer to bat leadoff.
  11. jimmer
    How many of these base runners were in scoring position? What was the difference in speed of runners on base (cause Hunter batted after speedy guys, Plouffe not so much)? How often were the runners going at the crack of the bat cause there was two outs, and so on and so on. So many variables that are out of the hands of the guy doing the plating.
  12. jimmer
    When you just look at runs, RBI and HR, you take away moving guys over on the bases, you miss extending innings, you miss many things. And there's an assumption that if he had just tried a bit harder/been more aggressive, it automatically would have resulted in an RBI even if the pitcher isn't giving him anything really good to hit. Votto talked about this kind of reasoning a lot. It was a good read, Guy gets on base by single, walk, HBP, etc. Next guy gets a single to deep LC or RC, and the runner goes to 3B. Next guy makes an out with a fly deep enough to score a runner. The guy who got the single and put the guy at 3B so he could be plated by a fly out to the OF gets no credit at all for the run scoring, yet he was instrumental in that guy scoring.
  13. jimmer
    Mauer also hits into double plays because he makes a lot of contact and people who do that when runners are on run that risk. While we're on the subject though, how is an average of 19 GiDP over a 162 games (696 BA) a ton of GiDP? That's less than 3 % of PAs. Miguel Cabrera has averaged 21 over 162 games (696 PA) Mauer has hit into 20 or more GiDP only three times in his career and two of those times he won the batting title and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting. The 3rd time he led the league in OBP. Cabrera has hit into 20 or more GiDP 6 times (twice as man as Mauer) and one of those times he led the league in GiDP and won his first MVP. What's Cabrera's flaw that's causing this? GiDP numbers are extremely over-emphasized and it's mostly because announcers like ours make a big deal of it and fans buy into it. I think part of Mauer recent struggles are, in part, due to recovering from concussion but also the expansion of the strike zone which MLB is addressing. I expect a nice season for him as he continues to put the concussion in the rear view mirror and the strike zone gets tightened.
  14. jimmer
    Last year, the top 5 AL teams in scoring were the top 5 teams in OBP in the AL. In the NL, 4 of the top 5 in OBP were in the top 5 in NL for scoring. The longer a team can delay making 27 outs along with the more people on base, the better chance they have to score.
  15. jimmer
    I'm a big fan of a stat called wRC+ (and I know a lot of people don't like metrics, so take it for what you will) For the few who don't know, it's a stat that tells us about a player's ability to create runs compared to others in the league and isn't positionally adjusted, meaning if a catcher had a 130 wRC+ as a catcher, he'd have it as a 1B. For his career, Mauer's wRC+ is in the 130s. In 2012 it was in the 130s and in 2013 in was in the 140s. In the 130s is considered above average. His numbers are closer to the lower level of great than the lower line of of above average (so basically above above average).We have no established player on our team that has proven they are a better run creator than a normal Mauer and we only had one starter last year above a wRC+ of 118 9 (and we can add Hunter as one with a wRC+ of below 118), and that was Santana in the low 130s helped by his BABIP over .400, which I doubt is sustainable. Even if his speed helps him have a better than league average BABIP, it will still very likely be much lower than .400. So if we believe Mauer will be closer to his normal career performance... Below is a good read for those interested. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
  16. jimmer
    Our guys batting first last year got on base at a .328 clip and only had 37 doubles and 6 triples. That's not just the first inning, that's over all 767 PA that happened for our hitters batting in the one spot. Knowing that, I'm not sure how many scenarios our #2 hitter would have to drive in runner from scoring position in the first inning of a game, but I'm guessing we shouldn't disqualify a batter from the #2 spot based on such a criteria that doesn't happen anywhere enough over the course of a whole season to matter.
  17. jimmer
    Since I mentioned Hunter's OPS+ with RISP last year being 93, I thought I'd also point out that our team OPS+ with RISP was 104.
  18. jimmer
    What if you speediest guy only gets on base at like a .305 OBP or lower clip. Fastest guy from home to dugout? If he doesn't get on base a lot, it doesn't matter how fast he is.
  19. jimmer
    It's about credit when someone says so and so player is a good run producer because he has X amount of RBI and argument that comes up time and time again.
  20. jimmer
    In regards to the scenario in italics, Mauer can just advance a runner by getting a hit or a walk? Something he's normally very good at (last year, clearly a down year). Do we advocate sacrificing one of the precious 27 outs we get to advance a runner one spot on a regular basis, especially in the 1st inning? Also in that bolded scenario, when batting 2nd only matters the first time through a lineup, how often is the leadoff guy on 2nd base for the #2 hitter to score anyway? And how many times did either scenario happen last year in the first inning, do you think? Then there are the 3-5 other PAs of the game that come up after that first inning. Do we really believe that the Mauer we saw last year is going to be the same guy we see in the next few years? Even if he is, and I doubt that, he'll still has the best OBP on the team.
  21. jimmer
    His numbers with RISP don't suggest he had a knack for it last year or the year before really. Overall RBI might suggest he did but not how he actually did in those situations. Plouffe did considerably better with RISP than Hunter (OPS+ of 113 as opposed to Hunter's 93), and had less RBI than Hunter.
  22. jimmer
    Yes and played on a different team. Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own. Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time. Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever. Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B. Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy. The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.
  23. jimmer
    Yes I would unless he was a big time slugger and then he'd still be lower like 7th. For the most part, my low OBP guy I'd have bat 9th.
  24. jimmer
    Almost all 'conventional wisdom' needs to be looked at under multiple microscopes. IMO, best idea is to have your best OBP guys get as many PAs as possible.
  25. jimmer
    Torii Hunter. the RBI guy. hit .274 with an OPS+ of 93 (meaning below league average) last year with RISP.
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