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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Well, first, it's not that easy to just stop striking out. A lot more to it than just figuring that if I stop striking out so much, my BA would be better. On top of that, those non-Ks could still end up being outs and they'd still have his BA lower. For example: Cuddyer won the batting title the year before, playing half his games in the same ballpark as Morneau did last year (the best hitter's park in the game) with a BA that was 12 points higher than Morneau's was last year and yet he struck out 40 more times than Morneau did last year. Not sure about the direct correlation.
  2. jimmer
    I don't see them being much of a contender, not really. I'm liking the Indians more and more, a lot having to do with the rotation. Like Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs said yesterday in his chat when asked what AL team had the best rotation and he said the Indians. I agree with him.
  3. jimmer
    I think all the people saying he needs to be a player he isn't has finally affected his approach. He's now trying to force the issue as far as run producing and pulling the ball. As our lineup got weaker in 2013 and then young kids joined in 2014, he probably felt more pressure. Probably didn't help the whole old school thinkers writing about how he needed to hit like a 1B (and a 23M man) as if one can just change because they change positions and get a new contract. Pitchers pitch him outside all the time. We saw a lot of him trying to pull outside pitches more than he tried to most of his career and that's where the Ks and the grounders to 2B comes from, IMO. As far as working behind the count and how he needs to swing more often at first pitch, he's done that most of his career and it didn't hurt him a bit. Not sure it all of a sudden is the issue.
  4. jimmer
    I'd say the Indians have the deepest and most talented rotation. And they are young with room to improve.
  5. jimmer
    yeah, I'd rather have a Joe Maddon type than an old school anything.
  6. jimmer
    Two outlier seasons with a high WAR? A solid starter is 2-3 WAR 2009: 4.6 2010: 4.3 2011: 3.7 2012: 6.1 If anything, the last couple seasons, partly due to injury, are more outliers with what he's done since establishing himself.
  7. jimmer
    I agree with the negative regression part on Kluber, but I think that's more than covered by the improvements gained by having full seasons of Carassco, Salazar, Bauer and House.
  8. jimmer
    I see a few people seem to think Cleveland is in trouble. Some saying 4th or 5th. They made the playoffs in 2013, Went 85-77 last year. This offseason they added Moss in RF (big improvement), they replaced their shortstop last year (about an even tradeoff offensively but the replacement is much younger and MUCH better defensively) . That's pretty much it. No one really outperformed last year and Bourn and Kipnis underperformed big time. Should see a bounceback from them. The have the Cy Young winner. They'll have Carrasco in the rotation the whole year. Bauer has the talent to do even better (decent FIP), Salazar is K machine (very good FIP), and House (above average FIP) should be the 5th guy. They are all young with their best ahead of them yet have already done well. I know they got Floyd, but I can't imagine him staying long unless he's actually doing well. They have way too much quality depth in that rotation. And, again, they won 85 last year (even with the poor defense which should improve with a healthy Bourn and new shortstop) and made the playoffs the year before. I don't see where the dropoff is going to be.
  9. jimmer
    Even moreso with 10 teams in the playoffs instead of the four there were in '87 and eight in '06. In '07 all you had to do was win one series before making it to the W Series. Way less of a crapshoot to make it to the W Series once you got to the playoffs at that point in MLB history.
  10. jimmer
    A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays.
  11. jimmer
    Since these international signings have been brought up, Here's a story that talks about international FA signings and what rewards the teams have had at the major league level. Not for the faint of heart. Guess which team has accumulated the least amount of b-WAR? They decided to use b-WAR, not sure why. Here's a disclaimer: 'This time I will only be tallying which team signed which player as an international free agents — I will not be tallying other MLB teams that each player eventually played for during their careers stateside. Players who were born in these countries but who were eventually drafted in the rookie draft are excluded from the count'. This is because this article is about international scouting. Another point, about the WAR tally in the article, 'The WAR tallies in the table below use Baseball Reference’s WAR and only include value that the player accumulated when with the team that originally signed him. (I.e., the Mariners do not reap the bounty of Choo’s production because they traded him just a few dozen games into his big league career.)' http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-mlb-teams-are-blazing-new-trails-in-scouting/
  12. jimmer
    I think this prediction page needs to be saved somewhere so we can take a look at the end of the season. If my money was just my own, I'd bet a paycheck or two that the Indians don't finish last, though the wife may have something to say about that. I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion. Edit: I just checked Steamer's projections for 2015. They have the Indians in 2nd place in the ALC, a hair behind the Tigers.
  13. jimmer
    Don't forget Van Slyke. Great defender too.
  14. jimmer
    If ERA was a stat that judged pitcher's ability solely on what they do, that MIGHT be true. With our defense, there's no way they all have an ERA under 4.00. One, maybe and he'd have to pitch out of his mind like Hughes did last year. ''a pitcher with a large ERA-FIP gap probably plays in front of a very good or very bad defense.' Our TWINS rotation ERA-FIP gap was over a full run, and in the direction you don't want it to go. That's really bad. The next largest gap going in the direction you don't want it to go was just the slightest hair over half a run. at .51) As far as why ERA is not the best stat to judge a pitcher, here is a good read: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/era/
  15. jimmer
    I like the Cleveland team. Few holes and quality starting pitching. Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.
  16. jimmer
    I think if you had to pick one guy on that team and say HE is the leader, it'd be Dozier. Of course, that is completely opinion. That opinion is based on how he carries himself on the field, along with how he seems to push people with his infectious playing style. He's like Punto but with actual starting talent and solid fundamentals.
  17. jimmer
    I usually feel better about my point of view when Heyman and I disagree.
  18. jimmer
    Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals? I don't see it. IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.
  19. jimmer
    He's only 32. He could easily rebound after having the one bad season. Too many players get written off, and for that matter anointed, too quickly. It won't likely be a great signing, but I doubt he'll be as bad as he was last year. He had a .244 BABIP last year after averaging a BABIP of around .315 the previous four.
  20. jimmer
    I picked KC to win the division this year and the I picked them to win the wild card the year before. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they made the playoffs this year, but I think 3rd in our division, with a very small difference between them and the winner of the ALC, is the most likely to happen for them this year. In regards to their pitching woes, they have Finnegan, Manae, Zimmer and Almonte, all of whom SHOULD spend time in AA or AAA this year. Got to figure one or more of these guys will see significant time in the majors if struggles happen in the ML rotation. Thing is, their DEFENSE really helps that pitching staff. That's key for them as much of a key as the bullpen taking care of business after it's turned over to them.
  21. jimmer
    'Brian Dozier isn't arbitration eligible until next offseason but rumors are already starting to build about a possible extension between the second baseman and the Twins. He is under team control until 2019 when he will be coming off his age-29 season.' Coming off his age-29 season? It's 2015 and he turns 28 in May of this year. He's not able to be a FA until after the 2018 season at which time he'll be 31.
  22. jimmer
    Any post that has a David Tennant gif almost assuredly deserves a 'like' :-)
  23. jimmer
    I think we sometimes forget the human aspect of this. I think for most players it just takes time to get used to the new environment. Takes time to get the 'awe' sensation to go away. You know, the awe of making it to The Show finally. Takes time to get the jitters out. Takes time to adjust to the skill level of the rest of the players, etc, etc. I am much more surprised when a rookie comes in and lives up the hype right away in all aspects of the game.
  24. jimmer
    Especially if we're using offensive criteria based on such small sample sizes as Hicks, Santana and Escobar have. Santana had a BABIP over .400 last which is amazingly high and way above league average. That is bound to come back down to Earth along with his BA. So yeah, we should be looking at who the best defensive CF is and he should get the job, especially with the guys we had standing in the corners.
  25. jimmer
    Well, in that scenario, Escobar had 5 SH in 9 PA (most likely sac bunts) and his line is .000/.000/.000. Hicks has 6 PA, 2 SH, and a line of .250/.250/.250. I guess what I was saying is that scenario seemed very arbitrary to point out because it's an incredibly small sample size, less arbitrary than saying 'I'm more comfortable with this guy because of how he hits on Tuesdays.' :-)
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