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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Indeed. How he did in 226 chances can't give us an accurate description of the kind of defensive player he is overall, just like 55 IP for relievers can't, nor 200 IP, nor 500 PAs. All are short sample sizes. Those can only tell us how that player performed that year. :-)
  2. jimmer
    Fangraphs had his DRS at 10th, so fairly close there. Still, DRS is a cumulative stat and is driven by opportunities. Opportunities helped by not only the player's ability (range) but by the pitching staff giving up batted balls in their direction.. As far as the Fan Scouting, previous performance almost assuredly let their opinion of his fielding in previous years cloud their thinking in regards to performance this year..
  3. jimmer
    I agree he likely isn't. It's normal practice for people who have a good understanding of stats not to base a player's actual abilities off one year's worth of anything especially if he has a decent amount of history. That goes for offense, defense and pitching. I made it clear I wonder if he can maintain that level of defense. Yearly stats only says what a player did that year, does not mean he is always going to be that player. We also need to remember UZR is a comparative stat and that talent at positions fluctuate. Some may think he's just an okay defensive 3B but maybe last year was a down year for defense at 3B so his ranking is artificially higher. But in regards to how he was last year, Fangraphs says he was top 4 defensively for qualifying 3Bs. I don't think any of us using the eye test watch anywhere near enough of other teams games to really say where he ranks against others. And we definitely don't do it with the sole purpose of evaluating a player's defense at a certain position in order to make a comparison to the other 29 players at the same position.
  4. jimmer
    I said 4th based on Plouffe's Fangraphs UZR and DEF rankings last year. not sure he can maintain that, but that's what I used.
  5. jimmer
    How would that average against change if the pitcher pitched for even an average defensive team?
  6. jimmer
    Must admit, when I read the title of this thread, I was expecting something completely different. Something like, 'I predict Vargas to slug over .500 on days that start with the letter T' or something like that :-)
  7. jimmer
    I suppose if you choose to judge defense by errors and fielding %, but having 30 or more different scorekeepers views on what is and isn't an error is too subjective to me, so I find it to be a very unreliable way to judge defense (on top of the sure number of fielding chances that can effect those numbers along with difference in home field surface (turf, grass), etc. Jeter, by errors and fielding %, was a good defensive shortstop. Except that he wasn't a good defensive shortstop at all.
  8. jimmer
    Exactly. Top four defense is better than just okay. As with many of our players who really outperfomed their regular career norms (Hughes, Escobar, Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki) will they be able to sustain that level while the new people are adjusting to the bigs? Although new, we likely should include Santana in there too.
  9. jimmer
    Fangraphs had Plouffe at 10th in DRS (a counting stat), 6th in range (RZR), and 4th in UZR. He had a very good year in the field.
  10. jimmer
    Nice research! Chipper will get in, Arod likely won't, and Mauer probably should just based on what he's done so far. In the case of Mauer, there were some years that are much better than people think, but because people focus on counting stats too much they under-rate those years. On top of that, between what the perception of what 1Bs need to do and, well, injuries, it could be an issue. Not so long ago, I thought he'd be a first ballot HOFer for sure, now he may end up a borderline guy if that. Before his switch to 1B, I'd hear people state that even with his career BA and OBP, if he didn't reach 3000 hits he wouldn't be in. My response at the times of hearing those, no catcher in MLB history has even reached 2700 and only seven have reach 2000.
  11. jimmer
    I think in reality, the measure of a great GM is his ability to get the most value from his players he can in relation to the amount he spends on them and hopefully that value is enough to make them competitive more years than not. Beane is a great GM regardless of the fact he has zero W Series titles. I think the same can be said of Friedman. I think most owners understand that when 1/3 of the teams in the majors make the post-season tournament, rarely does the best team actually win, and so, in reality, that's probably not the best measure of a GMs performance. I think way too much importance is put on the postseason tournament's ultimate results. It's been pounded into us that it's the most important thing and to the fans, it is. To the players, it probably is. For most owners, I'd say it's about the money, regardless of what they might say, cause they sure won't say it's all about the bottom line. I believe that how a team does over the course of a 162 game season is more indicative of it's talents than how it performs in a one game playoff, a best of five game playoff, or a best of seven game playoff.
  12. jimmer
    'The MLB draft is incredibly difficult to judge or even analyze for more than a decade for various reasons.Top prospects don’t always make it big and there are hidden gems found in late rounds. However, when you have the opportunity to draft second overall in the draft, it is important to get it right.' A somewhat good example of this is that for all the hoopla about having the #1 pick, when Ken Griffey Jr is voted into the HOF next year, he will be the first #1 overall pick to ever make it into the HOF.
  13. jimmer
    And to continue on with that, I'm not sure how good of an idea it is to just figure that a guy who had his best OPS+ at age 30 is going to continue to do that well, but some people like to believe that a player's last season, even if it's a career season, is the best predictor of his next season no matter how much history he has to the contrary. I've never found that to be very true, but I'm sure it's worked out before. It can be a comfy blanket of an idea as we find ourselves extending/signing players like that though.
  14. jimmer
    that was very funny!
  15. jimmer
    He didn't give the team a chance to win regardless of the stats or metrics. The metrics/stat tell us that he did just that.All the metrics/stats tell us is how well he was able to do that. It's not like the metrics/stats say he was horrible but he still somehow managed to keep us in the games so there's really no conflict there. If anything, I'd say some of the simpler stats, like quality starts (and quality start percentage) didn't do him justice when talking about how well he kept us in games, even though many point to that stat when determining whether or not a SP gave his team a chance to win.
  16. jimmer
    ZIPS is the most accurate projection model for baseball out there. I look forward to seeing theirs. And, I need to note, I said Steamer 'predicts' in my previous post. These models don't actually predict. They project. It's a subtle difference. I've seen projections for next year where no team is projected to win 90 or more games in the AL. I really don't think that the people who do the projections are really predicting every AL team to fall short of 90 wins. So, yeah, grains of salt for sure.
  17. jimmer
    Well, as a young padawan, you should know that having a beard was the reason Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon were so confident :-)
  18. jimmer
    Steamer predicts Hughes to 3.89 FIP and a 2.5 WAR.
  19. jimmer
    Exactly, FIP isn't predictive. We shouldn't be using that to predict next year. xFIP is better for that and it had last year at 3.18 Somewhere in between last year and what he's done before is where I was saying we should expect him to be. And that I hope people won't view that as a negative. Look at it this way, he had the 6th best FIP and that resulted in like the 42nd or so best ERA due to our defense. Imagine what happens to his ERA if he even goes to a 3.50 FIP (which is still quite good), with the defense behind him, he's looking at a mid 4.00 ERA and some people will freak.
  20. jimmer
    If that's what it takes to have Hughes have another season where his FIP is better than Kershaw's (the only current SP with 1000 IP or more and a career FIP under 3.00), King Felix's, and Pedro's career FIPs, then DO IT! :-)
  21. jimmer
    Again, I hope you are right.
  22. jimmer
    I know all about FIP, and you seem convinced past the point of any chance of convincing you other-wise, so I hope you are right.
  23. jimmer
    Hughes FIPs this decade: 4.25 4.58 (half season) 4.46 4.50 Then last year 2.65. That's a huge difference. More than a run and a half lower than his BEST season this decade and almost 2 runs better than his past couple years. I think it's unlikely that we can expect to see such a huge difference in performance from the rest of his performance this decade. We all want that to continue but that FIP ranked him like 6th in the majors. He's not the 6th best pitcher in the majors. He can continue to be very good but what would be sad is if he went to somewhere in the middle of what he had done prior to this year and what he did last year and people got disappointed because they were convinced he'd maintain that level of awesome based on one season.
  24. jimmer
    The question is, can he sustain these new mechanics and approach? I heard the same kind of comments about Suzuki's approach to batting last year and he went right back to having the same kind of results he had been having. In fact, we get these same kind of comments any time a player suddenly significantly improves upon his career norm. Most of the time, players fall back into old habits. So, I don't think believing he'll regress is unwarranted or due to not paying close enough attention. We'll see if 2014 was an outlier or the start of a new trend for Hughes. I'm guessing he regresses some if only for the fact his season was so awesome, it'd be hard for too many pitchers to repeat that. That includes pitchers who have a longer track record of very good than him.
  25. jimmer
    'Baseball Prospectus has developed metrics that measure, in essence, the extent to which catchers are responsible for the calls that go their way. When you consider how many times a good framer influences at-bats, and how many runs that can save during the course of a season, you see how truly valuable he is to his team. Now that's a great catcher.'--http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/11127248/how-catcher-framing-becoming-great-skill-smart-teams-new-york-yankees-espn-magazine
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