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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Cracks me up when'experts' like Greg Amsinger on MLB Network say things like (paraphrase), 'Brett Gardner and Eaton are the same player and worth the same. Cashman should consider trading him.' And then he continues to dog out Eaton.
  2. jimmer
    When Chapman commands that kind of money, few play at that level. They will regret this signing, from the perspective of sound business practice.
  3. jimmer
    Fangraphs has a new article about Dozier titled, 'Who wants Brian Dozier?' Spells out some options. Also say Fangraphs project 3.1 WAR and Steamer projects 2.8 WAR for Doziers coming season.
  4. jimmer
    about the Eaton trade, Dave cameron tweeted that Mike Rizzo (nats GM), who has a reputation as an old school scout, just mentioned WAR, asset allocation, controllable years and below market value.
  5. jimmer
    I think that what the White Sox got for Eaton is about right.
  6. jimmer
    I believe it will be the other way around because if he moves from CF to RF, what he loses in offense, he'll make up more, and then some, by going from a below average defensive CF to an excellent defensive RF. This was discuessed at Fangraphs in regards to Eaton. Also, look at his WAR in 2015 and then this year. His offense was practically identical in both years, but he played RF this year and CF last year. The defensive boost raised his WAR.
  7. jimmer
    If you look at Eaton's calculation I made, you'll see I made it an average of 3.25 WAR across the board. That more than accounts for the 0.5 decline per year. If anything I shorted Eaton a bit. I wrote: 'Eaton is younger, is going to get paid 38.4 M for the next 5 years. Even if you assume he'll play CF EVERY year of the next 5 (which I highly doubt), you're probably looking at a 3-3.5 WAR play per year. So if we say 8M per WAR, and you figure an average of 3.25 WAR for 5 years, that's 130M. 130M minus 39 equals 91M of surplus. About 30M more than Dozier.' Dozier only has two years, it's negligible and not really worth arguing with people who don't really embrace WAR to being with :-)
  8. jimmer
    I use Fangraphs because they go by FIP which takes fielding out of the equation.
  9. jimmer
    This year, Sale was 7th in WAR for MLB pitchers. Quintana was 10th. In last two years, Sale 3rd, Quintana 10th. In the last three years, Sale is 5th, Quintana 8th.
  10. jimmer
    If I had a choice between 5 years of Eaton or two years of Dozier, it'd be easy. 5 years of Eaton, no doubt about it. People are determining value and it's not just by looking solely at who is the better player with nothing else included. Age, years of control, salary and skill. All needs to be looked at.
  11. jimmer
    nope.
  12. jimmer
    exactly, they could really rebuild if they go all out.
  13. jimmer
    easiest way to look is go to baseball reference for the player. It gives the contract info. You're right. two team options. like I said 5 years of team control.
  14. jimmer
    that could happen. wouldn't surprise me. if you read a few posts above, I mentioned that I doubt he plays CF the whole time.
  15. jimmer
    I agree, but speculating is fun.
  16. jimmer
    OK.
  17. jimmer
    Yes, because you take into account salary, years of control and age. Eaton's surplus value is incredible. Eaton is younger, is going to get paid 38.4 M for the next 5 years. Even if you assume he'll play CF EVERY year of the next 5 (which I highly doubt), you're probably looking at a 3-3.5 WAR play per year. So if we say 8M per WAR, and you figure an average of 3.25 WAR for 5 years, that's 130M. 130M minus 39 equals 91M of surplus. About 30M more than Dozier.
  18. jimmer
    exactly.
  19. jimmer
    Yes, you're right. I compared Eaton and Dozier just a bit ago and I accidentally used Eaton's 3 year average instead of Doziers for the calculation. But, again, it's assuming that production continues after 30. And I thought I read 60-80M. Barely below 60 isn't 60-80. I'd buy 60 for rounding purposes, but 60-80 is a big window :-)
  20. jimmer
    Dozier has averaged 4.3 WAR the last three years. If we assume that continues (and he's 30, I wouldn't), and we figure 8M per one WAR, that's 68.8M (8.6M times 8M). He gets paid 15M. That's 53 surplus.
  21. jimmer
    If we get DeLeon AND Bellinger along with others, IMO, that's a better haul than what the Nats gave up to get Eaton who I think is worth more.
  22. jimmer
    I think he's worth more quite a bit than Dozier. The ONLY problem with Eaton is they will likely move him back to CF. So he loses a bit of value going from a very good RF to a below average CF.
  23. jimmer
    Only problem with trying to sell that is that the hated Cubs just won the W Series.
  24. jimmer
    exactly what they should do
  25. jimmer
    Eaton is under team control through 2021 (5 years) at a very good salary (38.4M). GREAT value there. He was a 6 WAR player last year, 12.8 over the last 3 years. Dozier is older and under control for two years He was at 5.9 WAR last year and 13.9 WAR over the last 3 years. Eaton has considerably more value, about 30M more if Eaton plays CF the whole time, which I doubt. More if he plays a corner.
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