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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    yes, nothing sells a point better than bringing up a mother's basement :-) What parameters are you going to allow for the challenge? Do they all have to have nerd insults? ;-)
  2. jimmer
    I agree, the parameter you set (box score stuff, only) is pretty much useless for determining who the best offensive performers are, but it was your challenge :-)
  3. jimmer
    Info found outside of a box score might by useless to you, but that doesn't mean it actually is useless or that it's useless to people answering your question. You probably should have rephrased your challenge . Instead of just writing this: 'I also challenge anyone to name 10 American League outfielders who had better offensive seasons than Hunter did last year.' you maybe should have added, 'but when you do so, only use archaic information even though you know a good chunk of it doesn't really tell us much about the players actual ability.' I know it seems wordy, but parameters need to be set. :-)
  4. jimmer
    Because if you just look at just offense, add in leadership, and blow off defensive stats as hocom, the Hunter signing makes more sense? Heck, practically a bargain :-) And remember, he was worth over 12M in 2013. So it's possible he bounces back to that or close. I wouldn't count it out, honestly.
  5. jimmer
    In fairness, he said offensively. You used WAR, which incorporates the horrific and unreliable defensive stat called UZR :-) Psychics, Palm Readers, UZR... If you use wRC+, there are still 12 qualifying guys out of 27 that were better. If you go to 400 PAs or more, there were 41 guys in which he ranked 16th, so now we have 15 guys who had better offensive seasons. :-)
  6. jimmer
    Cuddy had to in 2011 with us :-( In any event, the best thing for good chemistry is winning. If you're getting pounded all the time for years, that takes it's toll and things aren't going to be all great in the clubhouse or dugout.
  7. jimmer
    For those who but into WAR, Hunter was worth 1.8M last year, hopefully we get closer to the 2013 version which said he was worth 12M+. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=731&position=OF#value
  8. jimmer
    if you want the guy with the best OBP on the team not being in the top 3 of the lineup, then yeah. For me, when you add the overall OBP to that high wRC+ and #s with RISP, it still looks more like #2 or #3. To me, anyway. I like him #2 now, but I can see valid reasons why #3 still make sense as well. He fits both spots very well, IMO.
  9. jimmer
    and the other 8 % he strikes out :-)
  10. jimmer
    How about his career wRC+ over 130 and career line with RISP of .330/.456/.479. I'm not advocating he stay #3, but those specific numbers might suggest it's not ridiculous to put him there.
  11. jimmer
    yup
  12. jimmer
    So, the head of umpires works for MLB, and they give the umpires the pitch f/x info that, by studying it, has caused the umpires to increase in strike zone that they call. The umpires do that cause they are graded on strike zone accuracy which can be determined by pitchf/x given to them by MLB. And knowing that, we can't conclude that MLB has directed the expanded strike zone (even if that means, hey guys, call the strike zone by the rule which you haven't been doing)? And now we have MLB saying that Ks are out of control and they are looking at shrinking the zone that has gotten bigger over the last five years, a zone that has coincided with the pitchf/x era.
  13. jimmer
    and by success rate in this instance they mean the bunt was put in play fair not that was a hit or that it did it's intended purpose.
  14. jimmer
    That's just bunts put in play not all bunt attempts.
  15. jimmer
    and a followup article about bunting against the shift //www.fangraphs.com/blogs/more-about-bunting-and-beating-the-shift/
  16. jimmer
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/ 'The frequent bunters bunted the ball fair 49.5% of the time. The infrequent bunters bunted the ball fair 46.1% of the time. I should note before I forget that I excluded pitchers from this. There’s a clear advantage to bunting more often, in terms of bunt success, but it’s also pretty small, and even the upper-tier bunters, as a group, bunt poorly a lot.' 'So why don’t we see more bunting against the shift? Certainly, there has to be some element of stubbornness. But it’s also just a hard thing to do, even with a lot of practice, which most shifted hitters don’t have. A foul bunt or a missed bunt is just a strike, a strike that also makes the defense aware of the bunt possibility. The pitcher, as well, becomes aware of the possibility, and might throw less buntable pitches. The math might still work out in the pro-bunt favor — I’m not close to smart enough to work all that out. But I’ve never seen bunt success rates before, and I wasn’t expecting 50%. That’s a pretty low success rate, for bunts that aren’t even necessarily successful.' 'For years, it’s seemed so obvious to me. When Kyle Seager successfully bunted for a single against the shift last summer, it felt to me like a top-ten Mariners moment. If the defense wants to give the hitter an easy hit, the hitter should take the easy hit, without question. I could never understand how hitters could be so stubborn in the face of a potentially high batting average. Turns out there’s no such thing as an easy hit after all. Oh, bunt singles against the shift look easy when they’re successful, but so do Chris Davis home runs. Most of the time, Chris Davis doesn’t homer.'
  17. jimmer
    True and he might get thrown out on the attempt. :-)
  18. jimmer
    And, you know, K rate is up across the league (not just our team's fans' favorite punching bag). Due to the continued K rise across the league, MLB is looking to change it. Over the past five seasons, the strike zone has expanded about 40 square inches, from 435 square inches in 2009 to 475 square inches in 2014 The largest part of that expansion is in the lower area of the strike zone, with umpires more frequently signaling strikes for pitches below the kneecap. Low pitches are generally considered more difficult to handle for batters, most of whom have a tougher time driving the ball when reaching down for it. Not surprisingly, the walk rate across the majors is down while the strikeout rate is up. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12320861/major-league-baseball-shrink-strike-zone-2016-report-says
  19. jimmer
    According to MLB they did expand the strike zone and instructed the umpires to expand it more than they normally had in recent time (and likely due to Questec). Some believe this was in response to too much scoring that many equated to PED and so they looked to lower scoring a bit more hurried by expanding the K zone.. 'Over the past five seasons, the strike zone has expanded about 40 square inches, from 435 square inches in 2009 to 475 square inches in 2014' So as the zone has expanded this batter with a keen eye has seen his K rate rise as well. It's not so easy to have a certain pitch be a K your whole career, get really in tune with it, and then just change it. Your mind tells you what is an isn't a strike based on years of experience. The rest are slights on Mauer's character that are unfounded so I won't address.
  20. jimmer
    'I do not automatically believe he will go back to his MVP level, although a post-fatherhood bounce back is somewhat likely in my opinion, although it's really more of a theory.' I think his issue have more to do with MLBs decision to expand the strike zone, which they will supposedly fix this season and which can really effect someone so in tune with what is and isn't a strike. And then there's the effects of the concussion. He had a wRC+ in the mid 120s in the 2nd half. Seems on his way back to normal.
  21. jimmer
    He's only had 20 or more GiDP in a season 3 times. Two of those times he won batting titles and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting, and the third time he led the league in OBP. Miguel Cabrera has twice as many seasons with 20 or more GiDP than Mauer including one time when he led the league and won MVP.
  22. jimmer
    Exactly. And some are easily shown to be wrong and have been shown wrong in this thread. And everyone knows that since he had a horrible year last year for him, that's how he'll be from now on. I hope we never have a manager look at the guy with the best OBP on the team and say let's bat him in the lower half of the lineup.
  23. jimmer
    I really like this post. I'd still rather not have him as a leadoff guy. I still think based on many things, including the relative inexperience of the members of our lineup that would fill the 2nd and 3rd spot, but it's a compelling argument because you are right, his OBP and smart baserunning are big pluses. Still have to consider how well he normally hits with RISP and how no comes close to how well a normal Mauer creates runs on this team as of yet.
  24. jimmer
    If you read the whole article you would see that there was much more to it than that. But again, I never thought the article would change too many people's minds. I know it doesn't work that way. I will, however, continue to post things to let those interested in considering other points of view by well regarded people, even if ultimately they disagree with them. And I will also continue to respect the efforts of highly regarded people and trust in their methods even if I choose to ultimately disagree with their conclusions based on my expect opinions on studying the game.
  25. jimmer
    I'm glad you enjoyed the read, That was the only point of providing it. To make one think about preconceived notion in regards to the stolen base attempt. I know most of the time, people are just going to stick with whatever they believe no matter what, and that's certainly their choice, but I would hope an article by a highly regarded person in his field would at least get some to think a bit more about how important they truly are. That should be a good thing, I would hope. Before today, I thought the As only started moving to the forefront of analytics in the late 90s/early 00s. I was shown it could likely be other-wise, depending on how far we want to stretch the definition. I appreciated the info. Learned something new. I like when that happens.
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