jimmer

Nope, nor does it account for Dozier being injured. And it's not like I suggested he would be worth a lot of WAR in his controllable years to begin with.

Cameron would have some other who work for/chat for the site arguing against Sullivan too. Not only about the trade, but disagreeing with Sullivan, in regards to the possible trade, saying value only goes up as the season goes on, it doesn't go down.

At work, this site pops up as an unsafe site. And when I access it on my phone, weird stuff (like what was shown here) pops up if I am on for any decent amount of time.

Let's say a top pitching prospect nets you 10 WAR in his first six years.Gibson, who is, well, up and down and more like a #4 type pitcher than a #3 type pitcher, already has 5.8 WAR with only 3 years of service time). Not really that great, but as we know a huge chunk of top prospects end up just meh, right? That's just how it goes. In the next 6 years, one WAR will likely average out to around 9M. So just a weak #3-decent #4 pitcher, averaging 1.66 WAR a season during his controllable years, will be worth about 90M. He likely doesn't get even a total of 2M in his first three controllable seasons. Then, if he's only producing about 1.66 WAR a season, he likely doesn't get over 20M combined over his next three years. Maybe he does. Let's be generous and say 25M for his arbitration years and 2M for his pre-arbitration years. That's 27M paid out to a player over 6 years who was worth 90M in those 6 years. 63M worth of surplus, for just a #weak#3/decent #4 type pitcher. Fangraphs (which thinks less of De Leon than a guy like Sickels) sees De Leon as a solid #3/#4 type pitcher. By comparison, an Ace type young pitcher like Noah Syndergaard, has already accumulated 9.6 WAR after two seasons which have been worth about 76M while he's gotten paid about 1M. 75M in surplus value (after ONLY two seasons. Imagine what the surplus value will be like for him after 6 years of controlled time). Looking at Dozier. If he averages about 4 WAR over the next two seasons, and one WAR during the next two years averages out to about 8.5M per WAR, that's 68M value. His salary is 15M. That's 53M in surplus value. So yeah, I still think Dozier is worth more than JUST De Leon, but not that much more. It's not a slap in the face offer. Some seem to think two years of Dozier is worth closer to a Syndergaard pitcher than a De Leon. And before we say, well, De Leon could end up being a bust, that's simply the case with any pitcher. They're just harder to project which is why clubs like the Cubs like to build their core around position players. Then they either trade players/prospects for proven MLB pitchers or just outright buy high quality MLB pitchers on the market for the rotation. We choose not to do the former and apparently can't do the latter. That leaves us with waiting on the draft/development or trading chips like Dozier for quality prospects, hopefully close to MLB ready) to help fill our rotation.

this

while certainly not as bad as our record last year, we arent nearly as good as our record in 2015. This team is bad and will be bad.

Didnt the Cubs get out of the cellar in 2015, winning 97 games, when they had, according to Cots, a 120M opening day 25 man roster payroll (12M more than the Twins 2016 open day 25 man roster payroll)?

'Maybe you roll the dice on a single pitching prospect if he's, I dunno, Pedro Martinez. De Leon isn't that kind of guy.' That's easy to say when we know what Pedro became, but did people know the kind of player Pedro was before Pedro became the Pedro we got to enjoy watching all those years? Going into his last minor league season (1993) he was ranked as the 63rd best prospect by Baseball America, taking a big drop from the #10 ranking he had prior to the previous season due to the disappointing year before. He was short, and skinny with less K/9 and more BB/9 than De Leon. We'd be balking at Pedro right now in a trade for Dozier. BTW, I am not saying De Leon is in Pedro category, just saying it's easy to say you take a chance on a pitching prospect like Pedro Martinez when you know how he turned out.

In 2014 he struck out almost 14 per 9 IP while walking 2.5 per 9 IP (ERA 2.22, WHIP 1.026). Was 2015 really out of nowhere?

Ok, I haven't ever said De Leon for Dozier straight up is fair. I've said tons of times that it isn't. And um, lots of highly valued minor league prospects who get traded are unproven minor leaguers. Like, all of them, really. I'm not underselling Dozier. I have a grasp at what 50M in surplus is actually worth based on precedent. http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

Again, I haven't seen them. And I've been looking. I've read two or three people at Fangraphs say otherwise, though. You call this an extreme sellers market because some big moves have been made. One for a True Ace, the other for a guy who is vastly under-paid with 5 years of control left and 2 years younger than Dozier. Also, none of them are 2Bs. Not a lot of teams competing for Dozier, apparently. I'm guessing because they don 't see 2016 as the Dozier they'd be getting.

It excludes draftees? In Sickels Sept 24 article that had De Leon 5th, the #1 pick of the 2016 draft was ranked 48th and another draftee was ranked 47th. Kirloff was 84th. Quite a few 2016 draft picks on that top 100 list.

I haven't seen those, but okay. And I am a Twins fan and I have said I agree De Leon BY HIMSELF is too little. It's not an extreme lowball, but it's not enough. Then again, I highly doubt it's been 1 for 1. What I believe would be a huge overpay, would be De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger that some say is STILL lowballing.

The only people I see saying it's lowball at all (much less extreme lowball) are some Twins fans. A top 5-10 prospect for a a guy who turns 30 next year and has only two years of control left. Some even say De Leon AND Alvarez is lowballing. 12 years of control of two top notch prospects for two years of Dozier. Too little? Really? Dozier has about 50M in surplus value. Expecting a slew of highly regarded prospects for him is unrealistic. I said, from the very beginning, De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger for Dozier was unrealistic.

Well, keeping him is certainly the safe move. Risk aversion, the real 'Twins Way'.

I have so little belief that any of that could possible happen, I don't even consider it.

That's the odds of every pitcher. There are no guarantees, ever. I doubt the bold is true.

all of this, especially the third guy

assuming we even offer a likely 18.5M QO when he becomes a FA

He loses value if being traded at deadline or next offseason. His highest value is right now, with two years left, at a great price, after a great season. I highly doubt the Twins re-sign him, but it could happen. Shouldn't happen, but could.

What's worse? Taking a chance prospect many experts rate as a very high prospect to help a horrible rotation, or Dozier leaving for nothing in two years?

Any and all fast food 'Mexican' restaurants I've eaten at stink. Taco Bell has zero redeeming qualities. The potato oles at Taco Johns are good, especially with nacho cheese, but that's about it.

Ken Griffey Jr is the only first overall draft pick ever elected to the HOF (so the highest pick ever). Ironically, Piazza, the guy Griffey went into the HOF with, is the only HOFer drafted in the last round of the MLB draft (ahead of only 5 players). So the 2016 election produced the highest-drafted and lowest-drafted Hall of Famer. Quality MLBers come in all rounds of the draft.

Lots of thoughts on the possibility on this thread http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24666-twins-interested-in-jose-bautista/

Sickels had him as the #5 prospect in baseball in his end of September prospect listing (so after the minor league system AND draft).