jimmer
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Everything posted by jimmer
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53+ WAR according to Fangraphs :-)
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How Does Keeping Dozier Fit With Long-Term View?
jimmer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
How do you figure that? -
Our best OBP guy should be leadoff. Speed doesn't do much if you can't get on base.
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Loved Doctor Strange. An absolute home run for me. My 5th or 6th favorite Marvel movie. And the casting of Strange was perfect.
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All of this. Especially the bold part.
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I'm not even a big X-Men guy, but I liked First Class quite a bit.
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Oh, I don't think WE forget how good Vazquez was, just SOME do :-) In 14 seasons he had: 200+ IP nine times 190+ IP eleven times Career 8 K/ 2.4BB Career FIP of 3.91 54 WAR He really only had two bad seasons. His 1st one and his 2nd to last one. Not a HOFer, but a VERY good pitcher for sure. If De Leon is THAT guy, YES please!
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'There’s certainly some sort of market for Trumbo and the 47 homers he hit in 2016. As a player, though, he only does one thing really well, and it’s tough for him to compensate for his deficiencies with that one strength. It’s not just that Trumbo is a poor defender and baserunner, it’s that he isn’t even that good on offense. Last season, Trumbo’s on-base percentage was .316, below the league-average mark of .323 for non-pitchers. Sure, his .533 slugging percentage was very good, but it wasn’t among the top 10% of baseball, and when combined with his lackluster OBP, his 123 wRC+ ranked a respectable 40th out of 176 qualified players last season. While respectable, getting such little mileage out of 47 homers is a little disconcerting. Trumbo didn’t produce the worst offensive season ever for a player with at least 40 homers, but he wasn’t that far off. There are 295 qualified players who’ve recorded 40-homer seasons. They’ve averaged 155 wRC+, collectively. Trumbo, meanwhile, finds himself in the bottom 10%; just 16 players have recorded a lower wRC+ and only Ryan Howard in 2008 hit more home runs (48) with a lower wRC+ (120). The reason for Trumbo’s low wRC+ totals relative to his homers is a combination of walks, strikeouts, and a low batting average on balls in play.' http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-is-still-a-free-agent-for-obvious-reasons/ P.S. He's only been at a wRC+ of 110 or higher twice. Last year wasn't some kind of norm for him.
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He's hitting his arbitration years and only has 3 years of control left. He'd be okay as a 3rd piece, but certainly not a #2 piece (due to price going up and only 3 years of control left). For me, I want the first two pieces to combine for 12 years of control. He's a #3 starter type pitcher when healthy. Whether or not that means he's a #3 on a loaded rotation or not is a different argument.
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yeah, that'd be awesome :-) As far as Alex goes, their rotation was full when he came back so they put him in the pen. I like him (not in a trade for Dozier though)
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I'd take Travis Wood though.
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and the bowl is cracked
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yeah, I wouldn't suggest Cano was ever, talent-wise, not a top 10 2B in the last decade or so Just by performance that year, he had an off year. For me, I can't get behind the idea a 34 year old 2B, even one as great as Cano has been, is better than a guy who is at the top of the position and is just entering his prime. P.S., I think some forget how GREAT Pedroia has been practically his whole career including last year. In the last 10 years, he's 1: only had one year with a WAR below 3 (and that's because he was injured and played less than 100 games). 2. only had three years with a WAR under 4.0. 3. had 4 years with an ERA over 5.0 (and two of them over 6.0)
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Well, that's one judge of systems and there's going to be variance. For example, in 2014, Zips was #1 according to hardball times. http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-systems/
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Verducci and Heyman both had Cano at #1, even though Altuve is much younger than Cano and Altuve was 3rd in 2015 and 1st in 2016, while Cano wasn't even top 10 in 2015 and 2nd in 2016.
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Steamer isn't created by anyone at Fangraphs, but they do give the info. I never use Steamer. ZiPS projections, created by a guy who also doesn't work at Fangraphs but does do a weekly chat there,has him at 4.3. I have always preferred ZiPS, and here's another example of why.
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Well, perhaps top 30 is a bit of an undersell. Sickels, at end of season, had De Leon as the #5 prospect in baseball (which included pitchers and position players). He was actually ranked as the 3rd pitching prospect. Now, I'm not a big fan of Sickels but many are in here and many use him in counter arguments against other prospect listings like, say, Fangraphs. So, it's at least worth taking into account, especially for those who really value Sickels opinion.
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Bingo. That's a trade that has De Leon and doesn't have the two prospects I've said from the beginning shouldn't be expected to be included: Alvarez and Bellinger. I'd even be good with Buehler and Stewart, myself. I like Buehler a lot.
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So would I, it's why i said there should be more than just 1:1, and why I don't believe Dodgers JUST offered De Leon. I'd also like to point out that teams have to figure out value of players in some way. I know it's gross to think about, but MLB is a business and players are commodities in that business and they have value that needs to be identified. Figuring out values has to be looked at in terms of controllable years, salary during those years, and the kind of on field production that player is expected to give during those controllable years. I hope our FO is doing that as opposed to using the Dave Stewart approach.
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Sorry, off topic a bit (though it is about Dozier) I'm watching MLB Network and man, Heyman is basically not worth listening to at all. He has Dozier at 7th at 2B (that's low, but whatever. Verduccci has him 5th on same show), and Heyman doesn't even say anything about him when he points out power at the position. He makes a comment about everyone in his top 10 2B besides Dozier, and even forgets it's Dozier he had at #7, not Pedroia. 'Pedroia, I might have him a little low at 7 (and he actually has Dozier at #7 and Pedroia #8).'
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and that makes sense since there's no evidence to suggest the Dodgers are hesitating to trade De Leon.
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Four Twins Arbitration Decisions Looming Again
jimmer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ryan Pressly had an ERA of 3.70 in 2016, the only year in the last 3 where he pitched more than 30 innings in the majors. He also allowed 41% of inherited runners to score. -
He's flashed very small glimpses of talent with the bat and less than that with the glove. But next year is another throw away year, so why not give him 500 PAs just to finally settle the issue.
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We could just say don't trade Dozier at all for fear any pitcher/pitchers in return could get hurt or be a bust. Dozier just had his best year by a good margin and we still lost 103 (though was more of a 91 loss team by baseruns).
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A 50% chance? Really? Interesting. Again, a WAR of only 10 over 6 years is a low amount. Feel free to discard all of what I wrote though on the chance De Leon gets hurt and never pitches again in the majors. Doesn't really matter. All players have an injury risk, especially pitchers. I'm not much of an advocate for running a ball club and assuming the worst scenario at any and all turns. Especially when that means we keep a guy going into his 30s for two more years and then he's gone anyway all during a time frame we aren't likely close to being contenders anyway.
