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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    just remember projections are not predictions and that should settle your stomach a bit :-)
  2. jimmer
    Completely computer based, but based on programs written by humans based on player means and historical trends. ZiPS isnt like a magic 8 ball :-) Anyway, projections should be taken with a grain of salt including humans just using their gut :-)
  3. jimmer
    Yes, and his huge career year is a big part of why that's true. From 2014-2015, he's 29th for position players. From 2015-2016 he's 23rd. From 2013-2016 he's 23rd. And, additionally, there are great players playing now that weren't in the league in 2014 (or barely) that don't show up ahead of Dozier in the 2014-2016 time frame due to having one less year in the league. For example, Correa, Lindor, Seager, etc. You know, guys who were great prospects and instantly lived up to the hype(yeah, that CAN happen:-)) I personally see him as more of a top 20-30 guy myself before taking into account he hits 30 early this year (and we only have 2 years of control left) as some of these young guys who are already better haven't even reached their prime
  4. jimmer
    Kinsler won't approve the trade without an extension. Dodgers' don't want that. Kinsler isn't a good fit.
  5. jimmer
    And our great signing, Castro, was 2.5 WAR with Baseball Prospectus taking into account framing :-)
  6. jimmer
    Our farm system is Zzzzzz and our roster is going to be close to the same. This is like a Ryan offseason. I can't imagine any surprises coming out of spring training, except maybe seeing Sano catch some pop-ups:-)
  7. jimmer
    Oh, I think it's fair to say the Twins would LOVE to have Bellinger. Yes, they need pitching, but if the Twins were offered Bellinger instead of DeLeon, Stewart or Buehler, I would like to believe they'd be smart enough to take Bellinger (which, BTW, is a player that wouldn't be offered, so it's hypothetical)
  8. jimmer
    Ok, this post seems to be going in a couple directions. You've said before he is in his prime and with his consistent ISO increase and HR increase the player we saw this year is who he is (although it makes it sound like he's just going to keep getting better the way you've said it). In this post you say there is no reason he can't be a 6 WAR player moving forward (I have no idea how far forward, but forward).If that's the case with Dozier, it pretty much makes him a top 10 position player in the majors. As you look around the league, is it your opinion he's one of the best 10 position players in baseball going forward? Then you say he's AT LEAST a 4.8-5.2 WAR guy. That's something like 20-25th best player. Do you envision Dozier being a top 20-25 type player going forward? A top 10 player? A top 25 player? Something else? He's averaged about 4 WAR over the last 4 years. A 4 WAR player is in the top 40 most of the time (or right about there) Is he in THAT range going forward into his 30s?
  9. jimmer
    i have dozier over him as well
  10. jimmer
    ESPN stinks. I rarely read the site and I almost never watch it. Having said that, going into next year, I would probably have Dozier between 5-7. LeMahieu seems to be takimg a beating in here a bit. I remember having a debate about him in here prior to the 2016 season. Person I was debating basically called him a scrub. This is after I said Story would play SS instead of 2B cause the Rockies had a 2B in LeMahieu. I would also have Dozier ahead,of LeMahieu
  11. jimmer
    Can you link that chat because Dave Cammeron does his Fangraphs chats on Wednesdays not Tuesday.I can't find this chat anywhere. Ironically, at 12:37 on Dec 7, he was asked about De Leon and Calhoun for Dozier. I do see an article from Dave on Dec 6 about how he nailed the Sale trade in July though.
  12. jimmer
    Isnt it also National Whipped Cream Day?
  13. jimmer
    IMO, you are 100% correct. If the Dodgers have all along been saying a 1:1 DeLeon for Dozier, our FO would have stopped long ago. There are at least two pieces coming back from the Dodgers if this happens.
  14. jimmer
    Bob Nightengale is the same guy who just recently said Piazza and Bagwell had been suspended for PEDs during their careers. In fact, he said Piazza had been suspended the most times in MLB history for PEDs.
  15. jimmer
    if he was a consistent 6 war player, dropping to a 3 WAR, that would be a huge drop, but he isnt a consistent 6 WAR guy nor should he be expected to be in the future.
  16. jimmer
    It's funny that you say that, cause I was thinking that, IMO, anyone who believes that Dozier is likely to accumulate 12 WAR over the next two years also hasn't been watching baseball for that long :-)
  17. jimmer
    As soon as Dozier goes back in time and has even better seasons than he had last year starting from age 23 all the way to age 36 he can be in the same conversation as Killebrew. Dozier is an all around player because of one year. Interesting. At age 29, He has a career slash of.246 BA, .320 OBP, .442 slg% (107 wRC+ ) and is an average fielder. Interesting.ONE year of hitting 40 HR at age 29 for Dozier and all of a sudden we read things like he's a better all around player than HOFer Killebrew. ONE year. You're right, if they don't get a ton for him, they should keep him while he falls back to his normal self (still good, but a drop off in value) and then leaves as a FA. Cause, of course, he'll be a key component to losing 90+ the next couple years while our not so great farm system struggles to provide pitching we could have gotten in a trade for him.
  18. jimmer
    THE worst.
  19. jimmer
    I don't necessarily have an issue with the idea Palmeiro deserved to get in, some interesting info that makes me think others who still aren't in are more deserving: OPS+ Palmeiro: 132 Larry Walker: 141 E Martinez: 147 Sheffield: 140 Manny Ramirez: 154 and from Today's Fangraphs chat: Pud Galvin: Many voters are ok with voting for suspected PED users into the HOF, but nobody is clamoring for Raffy Palmeiro to get in. Why is that? He’s the best batter not named Bonds or Bagwell not in the HOF and has a better case than all non-Bonds/Bagwell/pitcher currently on the ballot. What’s up with that? Dave Cameron: You are wildly overrating Rafael Palmeiro Dave Cameron: He has a career 130 wRC+. Edgar Martinez is at 147. Larry Walker is at 140. Sheffield is 141. Manny Ramirez is 153.
  20. jimmer
    mussina and schilling are nowhere near on their first ballots. They have each been on the ballot multiple years
  21. jimmer
    Jack Morris had a career ERA+ of 105. 105. Only 5% above league average. His FIP: 3.95 5.83K/9. 3.27BB/9 His WAR:55.8 Mussina and Schilling are way above him. WAY. For those that like wins and losses (or is it just wins, excluding losses) his win % is .577. Well below Schilling and Mussina. I know a lot of Twins fans love him for the one World Series with us, but he wasnt even a great playoff pitcher for his career. Schilling was easily a better regular season and post season pitcher.
  22. jimmer
    Walker's road OPS is better than Rice's lifetime overall OPS. And OPS+ factors in ballpark and take into account where a player ranked during his playing time. Walker sits at 141 OPS+ (15th overall for RFs), Rice OPS+ was 128. And Walker was a great defender and very good on the bases too.
  23. jimmer
    you remember Mussina spent his prime years in Baltimore, right? And it is not like his winning% was higher in NY than it was in Baltimore, cause it wasn't. Personally,I couldnt care at all about wins and losses. I am not the one that argued Glavines win totals should matter (or that anybodys win totals should matter,period), but if it does, then winning% should matter too when comparing pitchers. Certainly if total wins matter, total losses should also be looked at. Only 13 HOF starting pitchers have a better winning % than Mussina. And I am not sure anyone argued Mussina deserved to be a first ballot HOFer, just that Glavine didnt deserve to be and that Mussina was better. While Mussina MAY have gotten more run support in his career (and I am not sure that is true) he also pitched in the harder league (where DHs bat instead of pitchers), in the toughest division against superior lineups, and still had a better FIP, better ERA+, better WHIP, better K% and better BB%. And yeah, Blyleven should have been a slam dunk HOFer. Then again, I have always said that.
  24. jimmer
    Mussina has 82 WAR (that is a ton. That should get you in no matter what team you play on). Schilling 80 WAR. Glavine only 67 WAR (even though he played quite a bit longer than the other two) Mussina 3.57 FIP, Schilling 3.23 FIP, Glavine 3.95 FIP. Mussina ERA+ of 123, Schilling ERA+ of 127, Glavine ERA+ of 118. Mussina 7.11K, 1.98BB, Schilling 8.60K, 1.96BB, Glavine 5.32K, 3.06BB. For those who care about wins and losses, Mussina had a .638 winning %. Glavine was at .600 and Schilling at .597. But Glavine gets in first ballot. A win accumulator who stuck around a long time to get to 300 wins. Fortunate to be on great teams with great teamates in the rotation, 'Big Three'
  25. jimmer
    It bothers me that a guy like Larry Walker can't get it but they'll let in Vlad (likely), Rice and other players who are clearly inferior. And the fact that Schilling and Mussina are still waiting while lesser pitchers like Glavine get in first ballot (due to a narrative created by the media) is pretty disgusting too.
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