Adam Peterson

Taking off our Twins fan blinders, where do you all view De Leon versus Berrios as a prospect in a deal like this? I see similar type of minor league (and unfortunately major league) numbers, but for me a key difference is the health and innings which make De Leon more of a risk. I think the two have similar *upside* but it's at least a #2, borderline #1 IMO. Of course this is only upside and not realistic value. For both there is a significant chance of not reaching upside, but there is also the real possibility that they end up at median value, which I would peg at around #3 or #4 given the chance of flameout due to injury etc. For comparison, I would peg Urias' median value at around a #2 starter with ace upside. I ask because I see a lot of comments talking about De Leon having "#3 starter upside" when IMO this is not the case...we are talking something more akin to median value across many different career scenarios.

I've lurked for the 5000+ comments across multiple threads, but I've been highly entertained. Now that the Dodgers are off the pot I'll chime in with my three cents... 1. I'm disappointed that the Twins weren't able to work something out with LA for Dozier. Seemed like the best fit by far...on paper. 2. We don't know what was the offer on the table from LA for Dozier. This reminds me of the Johan Santana discussions where many including Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and others were "supposedly" on the table. Without a reasonable report of specific players, I find it very hard to judge F&L this time around. 3. That said, IF the offer was De Leon plus "junk" (i.e., not Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler, Alvarez or other rumored untouchables), I would decline and move on. Dozier IMO is worth more than that. However, if one of the above was on the table, with or without a third piece I'd probably pull the trigger. And I know many may not agree, but my order of preference for a second piece would probably be as noted above. 4. If I look at this from the perspective of LA, I think the Forsythe trade makes good sense. From their perspective, they do not need an all star replacement at 2B, rather a solid 2-3 WAR guy who won't be a black hole. Yes, Dozier is more valuable than Forsythe, and he's demonstrated this over twice as many years. And all of this goes into reasonable projections for 2017 and 2018. But is the delta worth giving up Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler or Alvarez in addition to De Leon? I suspect not if I'm the Dodgers. 5. I hope there are other options on the table (e.g., Atlanta or San Francisco) but I suspect not. This always seemed like F&L attempting to build a market for Dozier when ther really wasn't one. 6. In all likelihood F&L at this point will wait and see what options are available at the trade deadline this July. Hopefully this will be a good option, but it all depends on whether Dozier has a good start and what teams lose a 2B to injury. Who knows, perhaps Dustin Pedroia goes out and Boston is desperate? Not something I would bet on but I'm ok moving forward. 7. As long as we don't sign Dozier to a market value free agent contract or extension this year or next.