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Yes! It would be like the old days with chicken pox. Send your kid down the street to the house where someone is already sick. Catch the virus and move on. Too bad it's not that catchy.

The question asks if Berrios can become an ace. The data blob is a good first look. The second look is at who are the aces? The answer is a lot of SP over the age of 26. The more relevant question is why are there so many "old" aces if the data blob provides a different answer? This type of analysis is similar to what epidemiologists use to identify the sources of viruses or bacterial illness. They would get nowhere just looking at "on-average" data.

You forgot Gerrit Cole as a free agent SP. He has become dominant after age 26. He's put up 13.8 fWAR the past two seasons. Better to look at who the top SP are right now: Seven of the 2019 Top Ten SP by fWAR were 30 or older. Eight were over 26. 14 of the top 20 were over the age of 26.IMO, three characteristics separate "aces" from the masses: TalentHealthContinued Improvement (learning how to pitch)Berrios has a lot of talent and has been healthy. He has a great work ethic. He can get better. He probably won't be a top 5 SP but he has the potential for a Top 10 season or two. His one potential drawback is his small size. All of the eight older SP in the 2019 Top Ten are 6'2" or taller. Six are at least 6'4".

The Boyd trade is interesting for both sides. I'd make the trade if I was in either front office. Too bad they're in the same division. That's a big PR hurdle for each team. Chris Sale for three top-ten Twins prospects? NO! I don't care how much cash is involved. I'd make the Archer trade for Rooker and Gordon but that's not enough for Pittsburgh. Archer comes with little risk - $9M for one year, with a club option if all goes well. Two predicted bench players aren't going to get the Twins up to two years of a good SP with only $9M on the line. Syndergaard for Buxton straight up could be a good trade for both teams. Two years v. three. Buxton comes really cheap this year. Both have injury risk and upside. I don't think I could pull the trigger as GM for either team, but it would make the next few years very interesting. Gray still makes the most sense to both teams. Twins have prospects with AA experience to offer. Unfortunately, Colorado still believes they can compete in the NL West.

Thorpe's stuff is a little below average across the board. On the positive side, he has four pitches that are usable. He needs to improve his command/control a bit more and maybe fewer FB. Thorpe didn't have much luck last season either. He had a .438 BABIP in 2019 (batting average on balls in play). At worst, that'll drop to the .320s over an entire year. I think he'll be ok - a league-average SP in the long run.

"He's likely to be an upgrade over Perez, but right now, that isn't the guy he's replacing. It's Kyle Gibson, who signed with Texas for $30 million early in the offseason... It's Gibson's spot the Twins should now be seeking to upgrade, and hopefully in a very significant way." Nick nails it. Signing Bailey was a good move considering price and availability. Now they need to trade for a SP at the level of Odo or Berrios. Jon Gray makes the most sense. The Rockies are going nowhere and have a lousy farm system. The Twins have the prospects. Two months to get it done.

My guess is Sano will be the biggest Twins star in 2020. He was pretty healthy for the last 4-1/2 months of the 2019 season. I think he'll report in shape and ready to go. Kepler has just entered his prime years. I think he has another gear left in him at the plate. Hit a lot of pop-ups last year. More likely his year will be similar to last season, but that ain't bad. Buxton still has the highest upside but he hasn't proven he can stay on the field. I can't bet he'll stay healthy this year either. I hope I'm wrong. Trevor May will give the Twins a solid 1-2 punch in the bullpen. I'd extend him for two years right now if he's open to it. Luis Arraez is my longshot candidate to be in the top 3. He has so much talent with the bat. In 2019, he had a fair amount of pull power (.171 ISO), but hit too many grounders to the same direction. I believe he will learn to lift more balls to RF in the future. His upside is 4.5 WAR, maybe a little higher if he improves his fielding. His 2020 downside risk is fairly high too, since other teams have a book on him for the first time.

The Twins will play the first 45 days or so with two veteran SP - Odo and Berrios. They will still have two open slots after Pineda returns. They need at least one ok veteran to start the season. The Twins core rotation started an unusually high number of games last year. Don't expect it to happen again. If Berrios or Odo go down, they will be in trouble. I'm confident that at least one of Dobnak, Thorpe, Graterol and Smeltzer will take control of a starting spot. Not three. The FO has allowed this problem to happen. I agree Ryu isn't necessarily the solution. Problem is, the FO also let short-term bounceback candidates Porcello and Gaussman go off the board too. At last year's deadline, the FO offer to Toronto must have been pretty weak. They said the Jays didn't even bother asking for a Twins final offer for Stroman. Don't sleep on Cleveland. They won 93 games last year without Kluber and could do it again. Clevinger, Bieber and Carrasco will still be at the top of the rotation. I doubt Lindor will be traded. If the Dodgers come through, Cleveland will likely get Lux in return. There's still plenty of time for the Twins to solve the issue by making a trade this offseason. I'm willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt until then. But a pragmatic view of the current rotation should be one of concern. Only a romantic hopes Cleveland will be worse, at least two young SP step up, and they will solve any problems at the 2020 trade deadline.

I agree about Colina. He could be up as a RP this season or a starter next year. He made a few relief appearances at the end of last season but I don't think that was a permanent move. The Twins were searching for hard throwing playoff RP at that point. I hope they let him start to begin the year.

Very nice way of looking at it, Matthew. I'll give you my analysis of your competing narratives from the peanut gallery: Kuechel needs to go to a team with good IF defense. He's always been a salad tosser, so I expect him to be decent for a few years. Teheran - no. You could've added his BB rate to the "washed up" argument. Thames - Uh, ok. He's wouldn't be a bad addition. He has pretty big splits in his career, so he'd have to sit against decent LHP. I think I'd prefer a RH bat.

Sorry about the 3rd time through. I was looking at the career numbers. Regarding WHIP - in this particular case, the difference is mostly due to BB% (nobody had a weird BABIP). BB rate stabilizes much more quickly (170 batters) than HR allowed (1320) or XBH (1450). There is nothing in MadBum's past to believe he's going to have a similar HR rate next season. I'll be satisfied If the Twins sign Bailey for the #5 spot. I'd rather see a trade for Jon Gray than a Bumgarner signing (too bad the Rockies probably won't come to their senses). If the Twins are trying to win the most games next season - instead of signing value plays - Bumgarner is the superior , IMO. Thanks, Tom. By the way, I don't receive notifications if TD writers comment on my entries. Do you know why that is?

few extra 2019 stats/metrics to compare the three SP: IP - Bumgarner (207.2), Bailey (163.1), Teheran (174.2) All three SP started more than 30 games in 2019. MadBum provided 33-40 more IP. MadBum gets the extra IP because he's the most effective SP the third time through the lineup. The extra innings save wear on the bullpen. Bailey has the most uncertain track record. BB% - Bumgarner (5.1%), Bailey (7.6%), Teheran (11.0%) If Kyle Gibson drove you nuts with his "nibbling" (7.9%), just wait until you get the full Teheran experience. BB rate is an important consideration for a team with poor defense. These numbers are similar to their career rates. WHIP - Bumgarner (1.13), Bailey (1.32), Teheran (1.32) What's more important than walks/hits per IP? MadBum allowed 15% fewer baserunners per IP in 2019. The gap holds for their careers. Teheran has a career WHIP of 1.21, while Bailey has a career WHIP of 1.37. MadBum's 2019 is right in line with his entire career (1.11). Granular Data MadBum throws more first strikes, gets hitters to chase outside the zone more often, and has a higher swinging strike rate. These are the reasons MadBum will make a lot more money than Teheran or Bailey.

I don't see Bumgarner getting less than 5 years at this point. Too many teams with money chasing a SP. Angels, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers and Nationals are all actively pursuing one of Cole and Strassburg. There will be three losers who will go after MadBum. If the Twins want him, they will need to make a big offer soon.

The Twins need 3 more starters, so they should be aggressive. Gausman would be a good one to sign early this offseason. I don't think I would go more than one year/one team option, but I might up the $$ for the first year of the contract. Gausman was an above-average starter for 2016-18. It's hard to find SP like that for under $10M/yr. One concern is the plantar fascitis, which can linger for a long time. The other is his propensity to give up the long ball. If the Twins FO is satisfied that both of these issues can be addressed, sign him.

At least they didn't rename the team the "Love Mussels".

They lost because the front office couldn't surround Story and Arenado with enough talent.

Trading Story is not out of the question. They went 71-91 last year with Story. They have only one prospect left that can help them in the next two years. They have no catchers anywhere in the organization and their OF sucks. They do have some good young players on the team. They have 2 high-level prospects who play SS: Rogers and Hampson. The rest of their rotation, McMahon and Arenado will be around for several years. Kirilloff, Jeffers and Duran fit well with their needs. Then again, the Rockies front office hasn't done well with their roster. It's loaded down with Murphy, Desmond and Wade Davis. They seem to like signing old guys - so you're probably right!

My 2020 Offseason Blueprint builds a Twins roster that can win the World Series within the next two years. I’ve tried to address the three weaknesses that TD staff have ably outlined in previous articles: A rotation depleted by free agency and in need of a second front-line starting pitcher. Poor infield defense. An inability to attract first-tier free agents. How do Falvey and Levine get the Twins that third World Series Title? Aggressive free agent signings and a blockbuster trade. Pay for Pitchers The Twins compete for a second level FA SP early and hard. The options are Bumgarner or Wheeler. Falvey signs Wheeler early in the offseason, inking him to a 5 yr/$90M contract. The first three years at $20 million, followed by two at $15M, with an opt-out after Year 2. Pineda is resigned for 2/$24M. Graterol or Thorpe fill in until he returns from his suspension. A Blockbuster Trade Falvey firms up the middle infield and acquires another starting pitcher by trading from prospect depth. He agrees to a deal with the Colorado Rockies: Twins get - Trevor Story (SS) and Jon Gray (SP) Rockies get – Alex Kirilloff (OF), Jhoan Duran (SP), Ryan Jeffers ©, Nick Gordon (2B/SS), and Jorge Alcala (RP) Story and Gray are both under control for two more years. At 27 and 28 years old, they are in the prime of their careers. Story averaged 5.5 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. He ranked in the top 3 of SS defense in 2019 and won the Silver Slugger award each of the past two years. Gray has racked up 12.2 WAR in 106 starts over the past four years. He has averaged a strikeout per inning. In return, the Rockies replenish a farm system currently ranked 28th by Fangraphs. All of the prospects they receive have played at AA or higher. They will be big league contributors before the current crop of young Rockies become free agents. (An alternate trade scenario would have the Twins send Royce Lewis, Duran and Alcala to the Rockies. Would you make this trade if it’s the best deal Falvey can make?) Reorganize the Infield With Story at SS, Polanco moves to 3B, Sano plays 1B and Cron is released. Arraez holds down 2B. Gonzalez and Adrianza remain as key multi-positional players. Garver will start 100 games at C in 2020. Jason Castro is resigned at 2/$12M to back him up. Bolster the Bullpen Rogers, May, Duffey and Littell form a solid bullpen core. The Twins resign Sergio Romo (1/$4M) and successfully make the best offer for Drew Pomeranz (2/$12M). The remaining two slots will be filled by Stashak, Romero, Thorpe and Smeltzer. Graterol starts the season in the rotation and moves to the bullpen after Pineda is reinstated. The 2020 Roster

I prefer Wheeler. I'll be happy if they get either one.

There were only 3 position players with 300 PA and age 20-21: Vlad Jr., Soto and Acuna. There were 9 players at age 22, and the Twins had one - Arraez. The Twins pitched Graterol on his 21st birthday as a RP and put him on the playoff roster. I think the Twins are reasonably aggressive. I have no doubt they will bring up Lewis, Kirilloff or Larnach whenever they are ready (except for years of control shenanigans).

The Twins ranked 23rd in offense at 1B in 2019. They ranked 25th in defense at 3B. If the FO can bring in a good defensive 3B who provides at least as much offense as a healthy Cron, they should switch Sano to 1B. Starting pitchers are the priority. I wouldn't pass on a front-line starter to get a third baseman. But infield defense matters. So does offensive production at 1B. They should make the change if the FO wants to put a better team on the field in 2020.

Odorizzi dropped his ERA by almost a full run with his FIP dropping nearly as much. His K%-BB% goes from 13% to 19%. For old-school stat fans, his W-L record went from 7-10 to 15-7. He gained 1.7 fWAR. Yet he finished as the 6th Most Improved Player. Crazy thing is, the ranking seems about right.

Thanks for the effort to all of the TD selectors. I have to lean towards Celestino in the OF. He was excellent after June 1. Gives the All-Star Team a true CF too. Rooker as DH. Apologies to Gabe Snyder but he was a 24 year-old in A ball. A lot of SP to choose from. I would have voted for Balazovic over Smeltzer but both are deserving. Rijo and Sands pitched extremely well too. Add in Ober, even though he didn't get to throw enough innings. Oh... and Graterol and Duran. Whew!

I always enjoy the year-end awards. I would've voted for Jaylin Davis as hitter of the year. No big deal. Larnach was impressive too. Random thoughts: I like to look for players that break out during the season. This year, two players impressed me. The first is Ryan Jeffers. It's great to see a catcher jump a level and improve his hitting stats, especially at AA. The second is Gilberto Celestino. The lights turned on in the second half. He slashed .348/.413/.532 from July 1 to the end of the season. Both play key defensive positions, which makes their late-season performances something to get excited about. Alex Kirilloff took a big dive in most of the national rankings by mid-season. I'm not worried after his late season success. He finally shook off the injuries and rust to slash .309/.358/.491 in August, following with 4 HR in the playoffs. I really hope he can stay healthy next year.

Thanks Steve. Love these pieces.