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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Wow.
  2. dbminn
    The Twins OF looks deep. The bench is ok too. Cave is a good 4th OF and Marwin is solid if he isn't needed elsewhere. Kepler is an elite RF and an above-average CF when Buxton isn't available. Things rarely work out as planned. Buxton played 87 games in 2019. Kepler and Rosario reached 130 games each. Buxton had offseason surgery. Rosario played with a damaged ankle from June to the end of the season. Kepler needed physical therapy this winter. The prospects had physical problems too. Rooker and Raley combined for 400 PA. Kirilloff suffered two wrist injuries. Lewis missed the 1st month of games. Larnach was the only one who played a full season. There is enough depth if the Twins trade Larnach or Kirilloff for a front line starting pitcher. There's no need to trade either of them if the right pitcher isn't available. Injuries will happen. If one of them tears up the minors and is healthy, they'll find a spot with the Twins. Rooker isn't on the 40-man roster. Wade has options. Raley is the only OF the Twins need to make a relatively quick decision about because he's on the 40-man roster and may not fit into their plans in 2020.
  3. dbminn
    The Twins would and should move a AA pitching prospect for Jon Gray. He's a pitcher with the upside of Berrios and the same pay grade. Two years of Gray would cost either Duran or Balazovic, along with another prospect. They should do it in a heartbeat. The only problem is the disfunction of the Rockies front office. The Twins just signed Donaldson. Like Brock said on Twitter(?), might as well put the pedal to the floor.
  4. dbminn
    I like Thorpe better than Dobnak. All of Dobnak's stuff moves in the horizontal plane. Hitters don't have to adjust the vertical plane of their swing, just their timing. I think they figure him out. Thorpe has more variation in his repetoire. I like Dobnak and I could be wrong. But if I have to pick, it's Thorpe.
  5. dbminn
    Tarik Skubal is another Tiger SP prospect in the Baseball America Top 50. He will be in the MLB Top 50 after they reveal their list this afternoon. He's already shown as their 4th best LHP prospect for 2020. Skubal started nine AA games at the end of 2019 and averaged 17.5 K/9. Add Spencer Turnbull and Matt Boyd to Skubal, Mize and Manning and the Tigers will have a high upside rotation in 2021. Thankfully, their position players will still be bad.
  6. dbminn
    There is no need to sign a backup OF and lose a player from the 40 man roster. Kepler is an above-average CF. Marwin and Cave are fine in the corners. Wade can come up from AAA if there's an early spate of injuries.
  7. dbminn
    I have no comment on this article in particular. I just want to say how happy I am to log on to quality articles by Nick, Cody and Matt this morning!
  8. dbminn
    I don't think the Twins keep Eddie beyond 2020 because of Larnach and Kirilloff. Only one needs to be ready by 2021. That said, the Twins need a healthy Rosario this year. Word is that Rosario had a bad ankle in 2019. Probably so, since his statcast speed data shows a full ft/sec drop - not normal for a 27-yr old. As a result, he dropped about 0.8 WAR just on baserunning between 2018 and 2019. With health, I expect his defense to be a bit better in 2020 too. His glovework has never been great, so I don't expect his upside to be more than an average OF. (Note: baseball savant OAA doesn't include "arm". He has saved between 5-7 runs per year with his arm, according to DRS). Even with improvement, I don't think the Twins will want his salary on the books in 2021. And with a better 2020, he'll become a viable trade chip for a SP in the offseason.
  9. dbminn
    I've been impressed with the Twins approach to communicating expectations for players. However anyone feels about the choice, at least Graterol can prepare for camp understanding their plans for him. I hope they avoid using Graterol as a "fireman" to start the season. IMO, irregular work might be as hard on his arm as starting. I'd rather see him pitch multiple innings in tandem with the 5th starter. It would be fun to see Graterol in combination with Smeltzer to start the season. Smeltzer throwing low velocity, high spin fastballs mixed with three offspeed pitches. Graterol following with 99 MPH sinkers and ferocious sliders from the right side. I can't think of a more radical difference in styles. Either one could start and the change would be jarring to hitters.
  10. dbminn
    Sorry about that. Yes, I'd extend May right now. I think he's worth the gamble.
  11. dbminn
    Again, you are right. May is the better RP. But May isn't a free agent yet. He has one more year of risk before entering the market. I'd make the offer now. $15M is life changing money. The worst that happens is he refuses and enters free agency next offseason.
  12. dbminn
    See above, Brock. Somehow, I forgot to hit the quote button.
  13. dbminn
    You are right. It will take more. I was rolling with the author's estimate, which I would surely take. I think it he might agree to a little less than your estimate if they got it done now. Maybe 2/$15.
  14. dbminn
    A fun way of looking at Donaldson's future, Mike. I'll add a couple more that I liked to watch play. Adrian Beltre was really consistent from ages 34-37. Hit 99 HR and put up 20.6 fWAR. Chipper Jones hit 95 HR and put up 20 WAR as well. Odds are good he won't equal Beltre's run. Donaldson stays in great shape, so his biggest risk is injury. His skills will slide a bit but I don't believe they will completely fade away.
  15. dbminn
    I'd extend May for 2/$11M. RP can have up/down years. Having Rogers, May and Duffey all under control improves the odds of having a couple of solid RP every year. It's not big money.
  16. dbminn
    Depends on how the season goes, but I think Rortvedt and Rijo will join the top four. I'd have Rijo at the top of the "possibles" list for now.
  17. dbminn
    The 2020 Twins will have a powerful offense and an underrated bullpen. The FO just signed an expensive, win-now third baseman. Seems silly to have a rotation so uncertain that the first 40 games are described as a "weatherable storm".
  18. dbminn
    Gambling on two unproven SP, good health and Homer Bailey for the first 40 games is risky. They can make the odds better by trading for a proven young starter. Don't sell Cleveland short. They won 93 games last year and now have Carrasco back in the rotation. They too are gambling on some young players, including Orlando Mercado, Jake Bauers and Franmil Reyes. But why take the risk early in the season? Go get a SP.
  19. dbminn
    The lineup is now officially ridiculous. Please Byron, stay healthy!
  20. dbminn
    I'm way more confident the Twins will get the SP they need with Donaldson in the house. Don't want to waste the first two years his contract!
  21. dbminn
    I wouldn't trade Lewis/Kirilloff plus Graterol/Duran for two years of Bryant. That's a big overpay. Bryant Value Using FanGraphs WAR Values and Schwarz Arb Estimate for 2021: 4.7 WAR in 2020 x $8.2M = $38.5M 4.7 WAR in 2021 x $8.4M x 0.92 = $36.3M (8% discount rate, 3% WAR inflation) $18.6M contract in 2020 $26.0M contract in 2021 (60% of WAR Value) Total Excess Value: ($74.8M - 44.6M) = $30.2M Twins FG Prospect Values: $55M - Lewis (60FV) $28M - Larnach, Kirilloff (50FV, Position Player) $21M - Graterol, Duran, Balazovic (50FV, Pitcher) At retail, Bryant is worth maybe (Duran + Jeffers) for two years of control. Probably have to add one or two young prospects due to demand. I wouldn't trade six years of Kirilloff and Graterol for Bryant, let alone Lewis+. I'd rather overpay for Donaldson and save the prospects for a controllable SP.
  22. dbminn
    I'm okay with Bailey as a value pickup, although I would have preferred Porcello or Gausman. Twins needed a #4/5 veteran SP and Bailey is cheap and relatively low risk. Steamer projects Bailey for 153 IP and a 5 ERA. He'll probably be about as good as Gibson was struggling through e coli and ulcerative colitis last season.
  23. dbminn
    Nick, you're doing a great job at a difficult task. I have a comment though... Nick's question: "Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?" Seems the answer depends on when you think the Twins can be a champion. If it's the next two seasons, I'd rate Sano and Buxton higher than Lewis, Balazovic and Kirilloff (IMO). Maybe put Rogers higher on the list too. If you're shooting for 2021 and beyond, the prospects move right behind Berrios, Polanco and Kepler. This is my problem with the Twins FO. They say they want to win it all now but they act like they're looking at 2021 or 2022. If it's now, they need to trade top prospects for a SP (and maybe a corner bat). If it's later, they could trade Sano, Rosario and May for AA prospects (or sign Sano and May to long-term contracts). The FO keeps hedging their bets. At some point they have to commit to a plan. There's still time this offseason. Maybe at the trade deadline. Maybe when they have to adjust their 40-man roster next offseason. Ugh
  24. dbminn
    Solid picks. I hope they keep Colina as a SP as long as he's in the minors. That said, he could be a big surprise contributor from the bullpen this season. Chalmers is a good one to keep an eye on. Thanks for the reminder.
  25. dbminn
    I like your picks, Cody. Here are my alternates: Brusdar Graterol as a contributor. Can he stay healthy? Will his change-up develop enough to be useful? I can envision him as either a SP or RP with the 2020 Twins. Depends how the FO sets his calendar. Gilberto Celestino as the riser. He plays a premium, up-the-middle position (CF) and took off the last two months of 2019. He'll start the season at Ft Myers but I think he'll break out and be in Pensacola by mid-year. A true two-way player. Nick Gordon as the faller. Not an exciting pick but he's a call away if a rash of injuries hits the middle infield. I'm not optimistic but he's still young. I haven't given up all hope. Cole Sands as the one to watch. Too many injuries in his short career. From what little I've seen of him, he has three legit pitches, including a change up. Moved from Cedar Rapids to Pensacola in one season, even though he made only 18 starts. I'm a fan of SP prospects who have good velo and show command with multiple pitches.
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