Cap'n Piranha

Arcia also would seemingly profile as more of a DH for the Twins as well, barring a trade, as a Benson-Revere-Hicks outfield in late 2013/2014 could be the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. Barring a trade of any of these four, you have to think Arcia would DH 4-5 times a week and play outfield 1-2 times a week. That being said, given Mauer's need to spend half his games at first or DH, Morneau's need to DH occasionally, as well as Doumit and Willingham, it seems pretty clear that trades are coming, either with the big leaugers, or the kids.

I have to go with Prince Fielder, for the simple reason that after next year, he will be earning $24m through 2020. That means the Tigers will have to pay him that much until he's 36, and given his declines this year in homers, slugging %, and OBP, I don't think he's worth that. What makes it worse is that the Tigers will have to pay Verlander after 2014, and Cabrera after 2015, and given that both of those players are a step above Fielder, it's not ridiculous to think that the Tigers will have to commit 27 to 28m per year for both of them. That means that from 2016-2020 (5 years!), the Tigers will be paying 75-80 MILLION dollars for 3 players. It's also right around that time that guys like Scherzer, Porcello, Jackson and Avila will start hitting their free agency years, and it's not ridiculous to think those 4 guys will command at least 50m combined per year too. That means in 2016, if the Tigers keep those 7 players, they will have equalled this year's payroll on only 7 guys. I'm not that familiar with the Tiger's minor league system, but they're going to need a lot of talent to avoid being one injury away from terrible.

Maybe it's just me, but I think the 2012 Twins are 2 good-to-decent SP's away from being a legit contender in the AL Central. The bullpen has been outstanding so far, and there are actually a number of options in the minors that could potentially help/eat innings (Thielbar, Watts, Pugh, Deduno). The lineup is the deepest in the central, with speed and OBP at the top, and power int he middle (on a side note, what kind of odds whould you have gotten in Vegas before the season for the following bet--on July 1, Trevor Plouffe and Josh Willingham will have more combined homers than Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. 100-1? 500-1?). If they can just find 2-3 more guys who can go 6-7 innings each time with an ERA at or under 4, I truly believe this team is back to being the class of the AL Central. As for class of the AL? That's another matter.

16. The question is did the Twins do the same exhaustive verification they did on Sano, or is that fudged a little bit?

That's a BIG kid. Still looks pretty fluid in the field for that size, although his footwork at the plate seems off a bit (the one swing where his backfoot crosses home plate on recoil especially). I'm certainly not a scouting expert, but I have to think with some good coaching, this kid has a future.

It's encouraging to see Levi starting to hit a little bit more consistently. Hopefully he can finish the season strong, and perhaps start at New Britain in 2013.

Or we could assume that, at age 33, his physical skills are declining, and that decline is simply happening more precipitously than last year. His BB/k is sharply down, but has been declining for the past 2 years. His groundball rate is sharply up, which for a guy who doesn't run well is not a good thing. His HR/fly ball rate is also well down, suggesting a decline in power, again, not surprising for an aging player never really known for his powerWill he hit better? Maybe. But this is not the Kevin Youkilis that gets on base at a nearly .400 clip and hits for power. Will he be better than Orlando Hudson? Almost assuredly, but it's not like the Sox just added an All-Star.

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio, as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.

I'm glad to see the Babe Plouffe moniker is catching on! Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist, but that's what makes sports fun, right? I say greater than 10%. I think Diamond and Liriano gives the Twins two solid starters at the top of the rotation, the bullpen is good, and a Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit top 7 is pretty darn good. With all the other flawed teams in this division, and our historical ability to dominate the Central, I think this thing is far from over.

If you'll notice, I asked when you try to sign an extension. I never advocated for the Twins to extend him right now. I merely think a guy who can hit .260-.270 with 25-30 homers while playing an acceptable 3rd base is a guy you try to keep around (fangraphs at this point projects him to hit .248 with 25 homers, and post a 2.5 WAR). While I wouldn't pay 12m per, I think up to 5 years and 35m is reasonable. From Babe Plouffe's standpoint, he goes from making less than 500k this year and next, to making 4-5 million at least next year. There are worse things in this world than knowing you'll get paid 30-35 million dollars no matter what happens to you, even if you're leaving some potential earnings on the table.

Gotcha, no more morning posting for me.

I think you have to ride Trevor "Babe" Plouffe (say it out loud, its fun--trust me) as long as you can, as he certainly seems on his way to becoming a potential middle of the order guy. While his UZR/150 is still -6.8, I would expect that to go up as he continues to learn third. The other things that's worth mentioning is that his average is now at .252 DESPITE a .234 BABIP (although thinking about that, that doesn't make any sense. Yet both fangraphs and baseball-reference have that as his BABIP. Hmm), which suggests that average will continue to go up. That being said, at what point do you try and sign Babe Plouffe to a longer-term contract (say 5 years, 30mil)? He's not arbitration-eligible until 2014, and can't be a free agent until 2018, so he feels like a nice centerpiece to potentially build around.

Sure, I was just wondering what the reasoning behind having him sit to start the season was. Obviously, he's a kid who just graduated from high school 2-3 weeks ago, and now has more money than anyone else in his hometown, and possibly is just overwhelmed. That being said, you would think baseball is the one thing that shouldn't be new (just different) to him.

Color me Confused when it comes to Buxton. The Twins want him to get acclimated to the GCl and wood bats by sitting out? Wouldn't playing a game in the GCL with a wooden bat by a decent way to get acclimated to, you know, playing games in the GCL with wooden bats?

Now THAT put a smile on my face...

From Joe C at the STrib... http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/158386405.html?source=error If true (and given that the source is the agent, I don't see how it can't be), this means that Buxton would be able to start with the GCL or E Twins when those seasons start, which is great. Also, a great tidbit on Hendriks' start on Saturday, from the extreme groundball/flyball ratio department.

How about the ultimate comeback to "Rick Anderson makes pitchers worse"...one Johan Santana. Before being selected in the rule 5 draft, Santana never pitched above A ball, compiling a 15-18 record across 294 innings (54 appearances, 48 starts). His ERA was 5.05, with a 1.39 WHIP, while compiling 274 strikeouts compared to 103 walks (8.4 k/9, 2.66 k/BB). He also gave up 26 homers (1 homer every 11.1 innings). With the Twins (excluding his brief stint in 2002 in AAA), Santana had a 93-44 record in 1308.1 innings (251 appearances, 175 starts). His ERA was 3.22, with a 1.09 WHIP, while putting up 1381 strikeouts against 364 walks (9.5 k/9, 3.79 k/BB). He gave up 144 big flies (1 homer every 9 innings). With the Mets, Santana is 43-27 in 668 innings (99 appearances, all starts). His ERA is 2.80, with a 1.16 WHIP, while getting 564 strikeouts and surrendering 185 walks (7.6 k/9, 3.05 k/BB), with 63 homers (1 every 10.2 innings). The only stats Johan has been better at with the Mets is ERA and homers/9. HOWEVER, if you take only the seasons where Santana was a starter for the Twins, you get the following; 70-32, 2.89 ERA, .99 WHIP, 912.1 IP, 983 k, 198 BB (9.7k/9, 4.96 k/BB), 103 HR (1/9IP). So the Mets Santana is ahead on the same numbers, but not by much, while the other numbers with the Twins dwarf those with the Mets. This is only one example, but this is a clear-cut scenario where Santana was much better with the Twins than either before or after.

Dozier is 25, and has been for less than a month, so that's still fairly young. He never will be a superstar, and the errors certainly are a bit troubling for someone who was billed as a guy who will "make the routine plays". That being said, it's worth remembering that at this time last year Dozier was in Fort Myers, so to go from there to everyday shortstop in the Bigs is pretty good. If we had some other young guy worth trying out, I'd say sure, let's give them a chance. But right now, this season is about seeing if we can compete and win with young guys, which means Dozier and Plouffe need to be playing SS and 3B respectively 5-6 times a week.

You're assuming that these kids can't improve once they leave college. Josh Willingham is the best player on this year's Twins, but was drafted in the 37th round. Mike Piazza, one of the 5 best hitting catchers of all time was drafted in the 50th round. By all rights, both of those guys were "we need some warm bodies in minor league camp" picks, and one is going to a HOFer, while the other will have a solid decade+ career.

This confuses me. We're really going to use a top 65 pick on a guy who profiles as a good set-up guy?

I'll admit, I'm not well versed on Donovan Tate, but here's a link to an SI piece on Buxton. How much of this is media gloss and trying to tell a story I don't know, but if half of it is true, it's pretty good http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1198695/index.htm Incidentally, in A-Rod's senior season he hit .505 with 9 homers, and comparable stolen base numbers. For those concerned about Buxton's power, there is a throw-away stat in the article above that says Buxton hit 14 homers in his sophomore year, and then stopped getting pitches to hit. Take it for what it's worth.

Sure, but the issue I have with that is some of the other outfielders that WERE mentioned. Rene Tosoni, who hasn't hit above .271 (at FTM) since 2008, which would be his age 21/22 season (July birthday). Arcia on the other hand, in his mostly age 21 season (May birthday) is showing far more success. Compare their two lines, which are actually apples to apples, since they each have approximately 45 games at the A+ level in the seasons I'm referencing. Arcia--.330/.388/.551 (.940 OPS), 24/61 hits are XBH (14 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, .39 XBH AVG), 18 BB, 44K (.4 BB/K ratio) in 48 games Tosoni--.300/.402/.425 (.827 OPS), 11/42 hits are XBH (7 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, .26 XBH AVG), 21 BB, 30K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 42 games For further consideration, here are Hicks' numbers from last year (his age 21 season, October birthday). Since he played 122 games, I divided all non-average numbers by 2.7, to get a 45 game sample size for ease of comparison Hicks--.242/.354/.368 (.722 OPS), 15.2/40 hits are XBH (11.5 2B, 1.9 3B, 1.9 HR, .38 XBH AVG), 28.9 BB, 40.7K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 45 game sample Other than the strikeout numbers, Arcia is clearly the most advanced, despite being the only one of these players that was not at least 21 for the entire season. If I had to rank the Twins outfield prospects right now, I feel like I would have to go in the following order... 1. Arcia--should be at AA, which puts him at the exact same level, except younger, than any of the other true prospects on this list 2. Benson--closer to putting it all together than anyone else. If the time off lets him get things mentally right, he'll be back at AAA in August, and with the big club in September 3. Hicks--has actually held his numbers (other than BB/K ratio) despite moving up a level. Is hitting for more power, and stealing more bases while getting caught less than last year too. 4. Any number of other guys could go in here, but they are all way down in the system, and probably 3 years away from contributing (Morales, Williams, Rodriguez, Kepler). I can't call Tosoni a prospect anymore because he's about to turn 26, has big league time, but couldn't hang at AAA this year. Barring him catching on fire, Tosoni seems like a replacement level outfielder at best at this point, as he's unlikely to move past Revere or Benson in the pecking order in my opinion, and as demonstrated above, has Arcia hot on his heels.

No mention of Arcia in this article. Are we assuming it is DH or bust for him at the Major League Level?

In my mind Diamond profiles as a #3/4 on a contending team. Won't overpower anyone, isn't a no-hit candidate every time he hits the mound, but will do the following things; 1--limit pitch count, allowing him to pitch deeper into games, which saves your bullpen. 2--utilize movement and different speeds to offset his lack of stuff. 6.5 to 7 times out of 10, the average major leaguer will not get on base. If you limit walks, that rises to 7 to 7.5 times out of 10. As long as Diamond is not serving up cookies, the odds are in his favor to perform well, especially considering that for the first time since 2010 the Twins have reliable middle infield defense.

While Sano's struggles are certainly not good, I must say that the lead is being buried--Sano put up a stolen base last night...of home! He also had two walks last night, after having only 3 in his previous 9 games combined. Perhaps pitchers were starting to find some weaknesses (i.e. getting Sano to chase), and last night is an indication he's beginning to adjust?