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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    That's not the worst case. The worst case is that he doesn't develop in Japan, and washes out of professional baseball by the time he's 25. Unfortunately, there's no way to know, but it's possible he would develop better in the US, and go on to sign multiple FA deals. It's a gamble, and one with a really nice floor, but a gamble nonetheless.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    The starting pitching problem was at least somewhat fixable--go after Keuchel, or make a play for Corbin. As for catching a break, while it's certainly over the top to have 5 starters get injured, the Yankees have also had an insane run of bad injury luck, yet are 10 games over .500 and leading the AL East. Pujols hasn't been good for a couple of years now, so saying Pujols getting old and hurt is not catching a break is less bad fortune and more bad planning at this point. It seemed to me when Trout signed his extension this past offseason that the Angels were consigning themselves to 2-3 more years of mediocrity barring a run of good fortune. So far the Angels have been exceedingly mediocre.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    My two cents; I'm a big fan of Arraez, and have been for a couple of years, but he should be sent back to AAA when Cruz is ready to return. Keeping Adrianza in order to ensure maximum depth and flexibility is important. At some point, one of the infielders will get hurt again, and then you can call Arraez right back up. The 2019 projection for the Twins on fangraphs is now just under 95 wins, with a 72.5% chance to win the division. Interestingly, fangraphs, based on their projections, thinks the Indians are exactly as good as the Twins, as they expect them to lose the division by 5 games. Some teams are described as being greater than the sum of their parts. This Angels team seems to be lesser than the sum of their parts; they have 11 players with a wRC+ over 100, and yet are 3 games below .500 and in 4th place in an aggressively mediocre AL West. They are 6-9 against teams with winning records, which means they're exactly .500 in the 32 games they've played against sub-.500 teams. As I predicted before the season started, the Angels seem set and content to waste yet another year of Mike Trout's prime. If Ohtani and Simmons are both out these next two games, the Twins should get the sweep.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Also on the Rangers is Lance Lynn, who tonight will face off against the Mariners, with Tommy Milone starting in his Seattle debut.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Starter playing time, yes. I tend to think his career will be as a better hitting, but much less powerful Marwin Gonzalez. He'll play 3-5 times a week, giving each of the infielders (except 1B) a rest, and maybe an odd start here or there based on matchups. He'll help the team weather injuries and adjust for slumps, as well as allow increased late game substitution permutations. All of that is incredibly valuable in the early 21st century, nearly as valuable as a starter in my opinion. After all, if you had 9 Marwin Gonzalez', you would have (by his career OPS) a league average offense.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I think an underrated aspect has also been the ability to go out every day and play. Reps mean improvement, more reps means more improvement. He's still better against lefties (1.026 OPS) than righties, but his .808 OPS against righties is quite good. He's doing very well when pulling the ball (1.362 OPS), and has actually thrived in high leverage situations (1.681 OPS)
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Why do the Blue Wahoos wear red jerseys?
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Look at this year though--15 at BOTH second and third, 5 at short, and 1 in the outfield. Given that this FO clearly likes players with positional flexibility (signing Gonzalez when they already had Astudillo and Adrianza, and rostering all 3 the entire year at the expense of the traditional 4th outfielder, then calling up Arraez instead of a traditional 4th outfielder like Cave or Wade), I think it's quite likely the edict from on high to Arraez was to start learning other positions. I'm not saying second isn't his best fielding position, I'm simply saying barring a collapse from Polanco or a fizzling from Lewis, Arraez's path to playing time is through versatility.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Royce Lewis has yet to play a single professional game anywhere other than shortstop--both MLB and minor league ball mention he is considered to have a good chance to stick at short. In the only category they can be compared (due to paucity of MiLB fielding stats), Lewis has a better error rate this year than Polanco (1 every 73.3 innings for Lewis, 1 every 60.6 for Polanco). This leads to another salient point for Polanco--he's making the AS game because of his bat, not his glove. For his career, Polanco has -20.6 UZR, with only one year positive (his first, in a grand total of 12 innings). He's negative in range, DP's, and errors, and is 23rd amongst qualified shortstops in defensive rating (2nd in offense--by the way, his offensive rating would be first by a mile at second, so it's not like he loses value by shifting to the other side of second). I too am frustrated by Lewis' slow start, but first, it is the FSL (where only 11 players have an OPS above .800), and he's also having a better May (.777 OPS). Second, I never put a timeline on Lewis making the majors--Polanco could be the shortstop for the next 3 years, and Lewis would still debut at 22/23. That being said, if Polanco is still the primary shortstop in 2022, something has either gone very (and unexpectedly) right, or very wrong.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Jorge Polanco is the Twins' second baseman of the future, just as soon as Royce Lewis gets here. Luis Arraez is the Twins super-utility of the future. He'll replace Adrianza next year, and Gonzalez the year after, unless something goes quite wrong.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Do you remember the times not shifting has hurt us badly? The totality of the logic behind shifting is to place more defenders in areas to which each individual batter is more likely to hit the ball. Smart teams move their defenders to maximize the odds of success--that doesn't mean it can't look really bad. Just like how in blackjack smart betters double down on ten when the dealer is showing six. That doesn't mean you won't get a 2, and the dealer won't flip a five and then get a face card.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    I gotta keep giving love to Arraez too. He just turned 22 in April, is at AA, and is hitting .342 with a .415 OBP. Almost no power to speak of (no homers, and only one triple), but that makes the fact that he has more walks than strikeouts even more impressive. He's played games at second, third, short and even left field. He has a real shot to make this team straight out of spring training next year.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    IN this series, Twins pitching gave up 13 runs in 36 innings--3.25 ERA. Hildenberger gave up 4 in 2 innings for an 18 ERA, meaning all other pitchers had a 2.38 ERA. All that is to say--what injury do we think Hildenberger will be diagnosed with today?
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Imagine if the Twins had taken Nola, Conforto, Turner, or Chapman in 2014 instead of Gordon, and Benintendi or Buehler in 2015 instead of Jay
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Particularly for a college reliever with speculation around being able to help the Twin's bullpen the year he was drafted.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    This is interesting, I did not realize Reed had been throwing that many pitches consistently. That being said, 40 days is about 22% of the major league season, so throwing 270 pitches in the first 40 days puts you on pace for about 1,230 over the course of a full year. Over the past 5 years, that number would be in the top 20 for most pitches thrown by a reliever every year. A reliever who did that every year for the past 5 years would actually be 2nd in number of pitches thrown over that timeframe. To me, this suggests overwork, and perhaps Reed was able to get away with it in 2016 and 2017 when he was 27 and 28. Perhaps last year, after having thrown the 11th most pitches of any reliever from 2014 to 2017, he just wasn't able to handle that workload any more, which would mean 270 pitches in 40 days was, for Addison Reed, being overworked.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    I enjoy that you say you're not the one tossing out chunks of time, and then immediately proceed to toss out a chunk of time in your restatement. Unless of course you don't consider the time from the beginning of the 2018 season through Reed's injury to actually be time. You initially made, and in the above post re-made, an argument that Reed/Reed's numbers before his injury last year were not good. You've yet to provide any supporting evidence whatsoever for this, and when I provided evidence that contradicted your assertion, you segued into a tangent demanding I provide evidence for my claims, which again, you've yet to do yourself. As you yourself admit, you don't know the health level of players--therefore isn't it reasonable to suggest it's possible some players, including potentially Addison Reed, were playing not at full health, especially since I provided you with two examples of players who were known to have played at less than full health just last year? And if we can't quantify if a player is fully healthy, shouldn't we perhaps consider that a player was hurt before he was injured, and that could be a contributing factor in his decline before a trip to the IL? Finally, I'm not saying players should play while hurt, I'm saying that they do, in the past, the present, and the future. That will never change. If you only wanted to play players who were 100% healthy, you would have to forfeit every game due to not having anyone available to play. Teams need to learn to manage the difference between hurt and injured, and ensure the former doesn't become the latter. With that, unless you want to provide some actual hard evidence to suggest that pitching hurt did not play a role in Reed's decline prior to his IL trip last year, I'm going to move on from this discussion, with a full rejection of your subjective assertion.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    I want Arraez to be the bridge at second base between Schoop and Polanco (assuming Lewis in 2021 or 2022 pushes Polanco to second). Bat him ninth; a really good hit guy with good plate discipline to turn the lineup over, and give Byron plenty of opportunities to steal bases. After that, he can become the next Marwin/Ehire, and spell everyone in the infield. And even better, he's still only 22, and will be this entire year.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm cautiously optimistic that Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson are all going to be good options going forward. That being said, they probably are not all going to spend the rest of the year pitching like all-stars. For me, the bullpen issue is less about Gibson "only" throwing 88 pitches and 6 innings (keeping starters rested is a good idea too), but rather the use of 3 pitchers to do the final 3 innings in an 8 run game. I'd rather in situations like that Baldelli only use 1-2 pitchers, and keep more of the pen rested. It's very easy to have a guy who "needs work" throw a bullpen session before or after a game. For me, the rule of bullpens is always assume you'll need them in the future. After all, it only takes an early injury to a starter, and a bit of ineffectiveness for this bullpen to go from well-rested to in need of rest.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Ryan Mason is intriguing, hopefully he gets pushed to AAA this summer, and perhaps a look in September. I still think Gordon is more likely to be trade bait than a significant player for the Twins, especially if he restores some prospect luster this summer. Arraez has a 145 wRC+, and has never been below 100, at any level, in his entire career. He's also 18 months younger, and has nice positional flexibility, having played 14 games at second, 12 at third, and 5 at short so far this year. Add in Lewis at A+, and hopefully Javier at A-, and Gordon seems to be easily replaceable on the organizational MI depth chart.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Using the assumption that every player on the field is healthy is severely flawed in my opinion. Just last year, we saw Byron Buxton pressed into service when he was not healthy. If I remember correctly, Logan Morrison also played much of the year not truly healthy. Is it really so hard to believe that Reed either didn't disclose being hurt (not necessarily injured), or he was simply going out at 80-90% (which I'm sure many players do on a regular basis), and that simply erased his margin for error? Or do you have explicit evidence that the team, the medical staff, and himself all did NOT allow him to pitch while injured?
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    I have no idea on what date he was injured, although I think we should also clarify that injured and hurt are not necessarily mutually inclusive. I'm not assuming an injury or hurt is the sole cause of a decline in Reed's 2018 performance, but nor do I think, based on his March/April stats, which he then repeated in September, that an injury or hurt can be ruled out so casually and completely as you did when you stated in blanket terms, "Reed was not good before his injury". I was simply debating your original, sweeping assertion, which was easy to at least partially refute.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    35% more pitches feels pretty egregious to me. It seems reasonable to assert that the more pitches you throw, the longer it takes your arm to fully recover (after all, starters go at minimum 3 days in between appearances, and that's almost exclusively reserved for extraordinary circumstances). Therefore, I think we can safely say a pitcher being used more often, and for longer stretches, is being more "worked", so while think Rogers, until recently, was being borderline overworked, it seems pretty clear that both Reed and Pressly were definitely overworked at this point last year.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Totally fair. I forgot we're in an era where half of the league isn't really competing.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Especially given Brian's 69 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR so far this year.
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