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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Rosario is a gamer. He plays the game right. That is why Molitor likes him. He has one blemish on his record for substance violation (marijuana?) Why would we want to trade some like this? He should be a fixture in the Twins outfield for years. The Sano experiment is just that. An experiment and in the end Sano will be at first or a DH, the present log jam is only temporary. I look forward to a Twins outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.
  2. Eris
    One aspect that supports the "Twins System is Broken Theory" is that they have been fleeced on many of their trades in recent years which suggests deficiencies within the organization in evaluating talent. There is a separate (although older) thread on this topic so I won't rehash old arguments. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20486-the-twins-capabilities-results-for-acquiring-talent-through-trades/?hl=eris&do=findComment&comment=414599
  3. Eris
    I enjoyed this article. Thank you. Hire an advanced sabermatrician to be incorporated into the scouting system with the goal of projecting future late round draft picks that will profile as top of the rotation starting pitchers.
  4. Eris
    Rosario had a 2.3 WAR last year, which ranks him at 42nd among outfielders in WAR. Carlos Gomez had a WAR of 2.6. Alex Gordon 2.8, Ben Revere 1.9. I am not sure why people are so down on Rosario, as a rookie, he was an average or slightly better that average MLB outfielder. His ISO is 0.192 which is ranked 23rd (ahead of George Springer). He had 11 DRS, which is ranked 15th among all outfielders. He has areas for improvement such as a K% (24.9) that is too high and a BB% (3.2) that is too low. Go back and watch some to the throws he made from the outfield last year. The baserunners are probably still shaking their heads wondering what happened. Rosario had 16 assists from the outfield last year (which ranks 3rd among all outfielders). Despite is deficiencies, Rosario is a decent outfielder and an all-around decent player not great at anyone item but better than average at most. He also has seems to have a great baseball sense. I believe that somewhere on the TD boards is an article describing Rosario as a Molitor type player. I believe that he will be in the Twins outfield for a long time. Note for the fangraphs data, I used 400 PA as Rosario did not meet the qualified.
  5. Eris
    A different way of looking at this is 12% of the plays are then determined by fielders capabilities. In a typical (?) game, 40 AB with 10Ks means 30 balls in play. 12% of that is about 4 plays / game. This is about 640 plays per year. How many times is a close game decided on one play made or not made. I think it is quite a few. As an example the 2015 World Series outcome is probably changed based on 3 plays that the Mets failed to make. Cespedes not catching the inside the park home run leading off the 1st game. Murphy's error. Lucas Duda's throwing error. There is also the failure to pick off the runner at 2nd in one of the games. Over a course of the 162 game season, winning 10 games is very significant.
  6. Eris
    Another potential issue that drives the age towards younger players is the travel schedule. Years ago it was that every get away game was an afternoon game. The lack of afternoon getaway games poses additional and very significant demands on sleeping schedules. For example, any team playing a night games followed by a 3 hour flight would expect to get to their hotels at 4 or 5 in the morning. The older you get, the more brutal this schedule becomes. This couples with the elimination of certain stimulants also gives an advantage to younger players.
  7. Eris
    There are several decent articles that try to address this. The short answer is that there does not appear to be a correlation between height and various parameters associated with pitching effectiveness or durability. The first article written by Glenn P. Greenberg indicates there is a positive correlation between **The taller he is, the higher the round he would be drafted ** The taller he is, the more likely he would become an established major league starting pitcher http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter He also mentions that the rule doesn't seem to apply to LH pitchers, presumable because of the scarcity of LH pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-notes-a-graph-of-pitcher-height-vs-gb/
  8. Eris
    Maybe this is posted somewhere on TD. In January 2015 there was an article posted in USA today evaluating large $ value contracts for pitchers. There are not many success stories? The challenge with many of the free agents is that with few exceptions there performance starts dropping with age. And it is often not known until hindsight who will perform well in their mid 30's. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb Because of their lack of success in the post-season, would David Price or Johnny Cueto be available on a 3-4 year contract and therefore potentially with less risk. Although it has been mentioned by others in this forum, I too find the number of pitchers released by the Twins who have found success elsewhere to be disturbing. Granted these are relievers and not true Aces, it indicates that the Twins have difficulty projecting / developing pitchers which bodes very poorly for identifying future talent in trades.
  9. Eris
    It is also likely that the Twins knew that Perkins was hurt as his performance nose-dived after the All-Star break.
  10. Eris
    In part, the Twins are doing this by playing better defense. In 2014 their team DRS was -73, 2nd worst in the majors. This year it is -10 (ranked 20th). Still not great, but that is a 63 run differential. The data is from Fangraphs. This should translate into a better record in close games (but I don't know how to find that data). With DRS the worst players on the Twins are D. Santana (-15 and no longer playing regularly at SS), Hunter (-8) and Dozier (-7). The DRS on Dozier doesn't match the eye test as he seems better than a slightly below average defensive 2nd basemen.
  11. Eris
    Last November the Yankees traded Francisco Cervelli to the Pittsburgh Pirates for left-handed relief pitcher Justin Wilson. Wilson is slightly better than a lefty only specialist appearing in 64 games (50 innings with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP). Yes the Pirates got lucky in that Cervelli is having a career year, but decent back-up catchers are not that expensive.
  12. Eris
    Your comments reminded me of Jim Hoey (acquired from Baltimore in the J.J. Hardy trade). 98 mph fastball and a very good splitter. Like Pelfrey, his problem was poor control. Most MLB hitters can hit a good pitch if it is in their zone. A splitter that starts above the knees and drops to the ankles is almost unhittable. One that starts at the letters and drops to the waist, down the middle of the plate--well that can be hit along way. At the beginning to the season, Pelfrey did a great job putting his splitter on the outside edge of the plate (to left handed batters) and this pitch would drop down and outside. At that location, it was an almost unhittable pitch (If I remember correctly, there is a video breakdown of this pitch someplace on TD). Also, being behind in a count would lessen a pitchers willingness to throw a splitter, and Pelfrey always seems to be behind in his counts. It is almost painful to watch him. Link to article on Hoey: http://www.twincities.com/golf/ci_17417340
  13. Eris
    Berrios is not on the 40 man roster and does not need to be put on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. By bringing him up to pitch a few games, one less person can be protected on the 40 man roster and subject to the rule 5 draft. This has been discussed elsewhere on TD.
  14. Eris
    I do not understand the fascination with Troy Tulowitzki. He is at best, having an average year at shortstop. From Fangraphs. DRS =-2 (17th), UZR/150 = -8.7 (19th) and WAR =0.6 (14th). For comparison, Danny Santana DRS = -9 (29th), UZR/150 = -13.5 (22nd) and WAR=-0.8 (22nd). Yes, he represents an improvement over the Twins current options, but is not worth giving away part of the farm, especially considering his salary. I would much rather the Twins bring up Polanco than make a trade for an average shortstop.
  15. Eris
    Shooter Hunt. Maybe. I am not really sure what his issues were, but his walks zoomed out of control. I would also say that his control was never great to begin with. He started off OK but not great. 3.86 BB/9 at Tulane. 5.9 BB/9 in 2008 and ~ 16 BB/9 in 2009. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hunt--001sho CAREER NOTES: Two-time first-team All-Conference USA selection...originally enrolled as a pitcher/catcher at the University of Virginia before transferring to Tulane in the summer of 2006...in two seasons with the Green Wave, posted a combined 15-10 record, a 2.65 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average...started 31 of the 32 games he appeared in during his Tulane career, during which time he posted a 10.33 strikeout-per-nine-inning average and a 2.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio after fanning 230 batters and walking just 86 in 200.1 innings of work...
  16. Eris
    Maybe this is covered elsewhere and I have not found it. There are a number of very talented Cuban baseball players that have or will be making it to the MLB. The latest being Yoan Moncada. An article on how some of these players would fit into the Twins organization would be nice. The Twins do not seem to be linked to any of these free agents. Is there a reason for this?
  17. Eris
    Six of the teams that made the playoffs last year (Royals, A's, Orioles, Pirates, Dodgers and Cardinals) were ranked in the top 10 on FanGraphs Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Kansas City had 3 outfielders (Gordon, Cain and Dyson) individually ranked in the top 10 is DRS. From Teams stats on DRS, Royals (40), Tigers (-65) and the Twins (-73). A different way of looking at this is that all of Miguel Cabrera's offense (109 RBI) was essentially neutralized by the Royals defense. I don't see any team in the division matching K.C.'s defense and they should be one of the contenders just because of that. I enjoyed watching KC last year and wish the Twins, especially in the outfield, were modeled after the Royals outfield. They also remind me alot like the 80's Cardinals outfield of Coleman and McGee.
  18. Eris
    One item that is missing in this evaluation is the importance of the second baseman in converting DP. If this is the case, an above average 2B should elevate a SS DP metrics and conversely. Can you test for this?
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