Eris

I think Rosario is the weak link. Here is his statcast catch probability data: 2/27 in 5 star opportunities 4/9 in 4 star 8/11 in 3 star 19/21 in 2 star 23/24 in 1 star (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?min=25&year=2016) He caught 61% of the fly balls last year. Really good is 70%, and elite is 80%. The data from 2015 is also very similar, where he caught 57% of the balls in play. This data only captures Rosario's ability to catch balls and statcast suggests that Rosario needs to improve. He has a very good arm, which is not measured in this data.

There was a write up last year in fan graphs about Kepler's elite pitch recognition skills. https://www.google.com/amp/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/amp/ As far as I can tell, non of the analytic sites are predicting a sophomore regression. He has the tools. Kepler will be a star. Watching him and Buxton develop together will remind us of the Puckett and Hrbeck development. Now we just need to identify someone assume the roles of Viola and Gaetti. (Note I have left Eddie Rosario off this list because I think his lack of discipline will prevent the Twins from having a truely elite outfield).

I think the Twins and the White Sox are in a very different part of the spectrum (except in on field performance). The Twins path to a World Series is that the current group of young players gels and they becomes contenders by substantially upgrading the pitching staff. (As was mentioned earlier in this thread, the Twins opening day roster has 7 players under 27 who were top 100 MLB prospects) In the next 2-3 years the Twins need to sign probably at least 2 front line starting pitchers and develop a good SS. They have almost no one (except maybe Dozier) whom they are willing to part with and will bring value in return. The White Sox, on the other hand have/had three player with a lot a value (Sale, Eaton, and Jose Quintana). They were able to trade these players for some very good/top prospects. Who do the Twins have that would bring the return received for Sale or Eaton.

You're not giving the FO any credit for this. I don't have any information and am only speculating. Wimmers could have signed with any organization. He chose to come back to Twins. There is probably a gentlemen's agreement/understanding here some place, which I expect will be honored. The baseball world is a small community and if FO don't keep their word, this information gets out there and signing such free agent players in the future becomes harder. I suspect also the both Gimenez and Breslow were promised spots/a good shot to make the team). Considering the "40 man roster crunch" they got Park through waivers. Just about any other time in the off-season they would probably not have gotten Park through waivers, but did it right before Spring training when other teams rosters were set for spring training. An accident or a clever calculated move?

Related to JRM discussions. Hicks loses right field position battle to Aaron Judge. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/03/yankees_aaron_judge_vs_aaron_hicks_the_final_argum.html

A simple explanation is that the moves were made to avoid making 40 man roster moves. Sending Park down is not all that different then sending Alex Wimmers to AAA. It was done to put off a decision on who to cut. It is of course difficult to comprehend how the worst team in baseball can have a 40 man roster crunch. Part of this can be attributed to poor player management and adding players to the 40 man roster before they are ready to contribute. Also, most of the deadline trades last year involved players who had to be kept on the 40 man or risk being lost. Pat Light is an example. Not sure if it would have been possible to work these trades receiving players who were a couple of years from needing to protected. The Twins are even lucky to have these decisions to make on Wimmers and Park as both could have been picked up by any team. There are some obvious candidates to be released or traded. One of the questions is how much value to they have a this time. For example do you try trade JR Murphy for a lottery ticket, or just release him. Before coming to the Twins he was a capable back-up.

You are correct. I have made mistake. I was working on fangraphs this morning (2015 and 2016 data) and I have no idea how I made that mistake. I am no longer able to edit the my post from this morning. If one of the moderators would like to remove the sentence about the Twins being second in runs scored that would OK with me.

Nick. Thank you for the article. It is always nice to wake up to article that represents hope and optimism. What will be interesting to see is how the new front office addresses some of the Twins problems going forward. From my perspective the factors that they can have an impact on is defense and the draft. The Twins were second in ML in runs scored last year. Run prevention is an issue. They are limited by what can be done with pitching. But defense is an area that can be improved. At least on the margins. The data below is DRS from fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,a Robbie Grossman accounts for a good chunk of of the negative DRS with -19. It will be very interesting to see how they manage his playing time in LF. I have the left side of infield accounted for -28 DRS. The interesting game decisions here is will the Twins more aggressive in making defensive substitutions in close games. They have vested most of there options here in Ehire Adrianza, who unfortunately is hurt at the moment, but I am expecting him to make the team. The other component of the defensive metrics is how Danny Santana is managed. Drafting (has discussed elsewhere on TD) and player development has been a one of the main culprits in the Twins current run of failure with few of their 1st round and supplementary picks having a significant impact since 2000. It will will be interesting to watch how the Twins manage this year's draft.

Chargois has had a difficult spring. A WHIP over 2. There are only 5 pitchers in the Twins camp whose WHIP are worse. He deserved to be sent down. We get seduced by Chargois' velocity but he has been very hittable.

From the information that is on the internet, Alex Kirilloff did pitch in high school. Maybe that is a contributing factor. http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/alex-kirilloff/4jHvRvTsEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/default.htm

Phillie fans can be a rough bunch. While I hope you are right as I am a Twins fan, MLB has Mantis as the their 6th best OF prospect. Keith Law has Mantis at 30 and Kirilloff at 97 on his prospect rankings.

Your memory is correct. Polanco was called up both in 2014 and 2015 and played in 4 or 5 games each year. He was called up because of injuries on the MLB roster and because he was the only infielder who could be called up without making a 40 man roster move.

Umpires are like the rest of us, they all have differing skill sets. Some of the umpires are also not young anymore. In 2014, the average age of an MLB umpire was 45.8. With increasing age, their reflexes (and thus their skills) decrease. Additionally, MLB umpires have a very strong union and it is unlikely that umpires who are poor in calling balls and strikes will be pushed aside. As an example, Joe West is still an MLB umpire (and still umping in playoff games). There is an additional component related to framing and electronic evaluations that is seldom discussed. This probably contributes to longer games. Umpires, who are being graded on ball and strike calling, are less likely to expand the strike zone when the game is no longer close. I can't speak for what happens at the ML level, but as a player I have told many times that because of the game situation or the weather that anything close would be a strike.

On Tommy John. Good High school pitchers are throwing for 9 months of the year. Are on multiple teams and often are focused only on baseball. Years ago, good athletes often played 3 different sports. This overuse at a young age, along with the velocity race is likely the drivers of TJ. My son played with kids who had ligament damage from pitching at the age of 12. It would be interesting to see if the incidents of TJ is lower for ML pitchers who did not pitch in high school and earlier.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of truth in what you have written. Bob Klapisch is the beat writer for the Bergen Record and covers mostly the Yankkees. Below are his thoughts (from todays paper). As for Bonds and Clemens, both have received my votes for years, not because PEDs weren’t game-changers. They were and still are. I’m not necessarily advocating for a generation of juicers. But as I’ve written before, if the federal government couldn’t nail Bonds and Clemens for steroids, don’t expect me to punish them, either. If commissioners Selig and Manfred say Bonds and Clemens were and are in good standing, that meets the threshold for my vote. Besides, if you’re looking for someone to lash out against for the pharmaceutical era, Selig is the better target. It was on his watch that PEDs washed over the sport like a monsoon. Furthermore, Selig was complicit in the collusion between owners against free agents in the 1980s; the commissioner himself was called as a witness in the case that ultimately ruled in favor of the players. If Selig had been on my Hall of Fame ballot – which he wasn’t, his candidacy was decided on by the Today’s Game Era committee – I would’ve voted against him. I would’ve said so loudly. http://www.northjersey.com/story/sports/columnists/bob-klapisch/2017/01/17/96678202/

There was some discussion of Vargas' fourth option year in the forum linked below. Summarizing the discussion is that Vargas failed to meet the 90 day requirement on an active MiLB roster needed to receive credit for a year of service. Most likely this is related to his suspension for violating MLB drug policy. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24320-berardino-falvey-on-mauer-polanco-sano-vargas-more/

I think a better comparison would be Johan Santana. He was an elite pitcher when his fastball was near 95. As his velocity dropped, so did his K%. He was still effective, but no longer elite. De Leon's fastball (~ 92) is probably at the lower end of the effectiveness spectrum. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P#advanced http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/06/santana_must_made_adjustments.html

I think it demonstrates if we incentivize a certain skill set, people will go out and try to achieve that skill set. In this case, being able to throw a mid-90's fastball is a path to the majors. In the area that I live (northern NJ), there is a whole industry devoted to teaching young children the mechanics needed to throw hard. It is almost impossible for a player to be a high school pitcher without his parents spending thousands of dollars in these coaching / player development activities. At a local DIII school where I teach, pitchers with low 90's fastballs ride the pine. There is a significant downside to the velocity arms race. Many teenagers, MiLB and MLB players with arm injuries. On the Mets team, 4 of their 6 stud pitchers (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, and Wheeler) have had TJ surgery. What the current situation also demonstrates is given enough exposure and practice, hitters can catch up to 100 mph pitches, just like they learned to hit sliders. While I think the velocity arms race is over done, the data does support that higher velocity generates more K's. Arms are now considered expendable. Until that changes, the velocity arms race will continue.

I agree. For sports franchises it is all about PR. Do we really want sports programs (pro, college, Olympics, etc.) to conduct extra-judicial processes that extend beyond taking performance enhancing drugs? I think the long term effect of that would be bad. (In both the Chapman and Brown cases, prosecutors declined to file charges and the judge dismissed charges against Ray Rice) From my perspective, the question is do we as a society have different sets of rules for "athletes" and other "important" people that contributes to domestic violence. Unfortunately, I think the answer is yes. I think we as a society tend to overlook the bad behavior of young male athletes and this results in a lost opportunity to correct violent and other forms of undesirable behavior when people are young. I don't really have any data to support this but it is just what I think. I think also that there is a culture in some organizations (sports, military, businesses) that condones this behavior. CNN carried an article about how the outcome of the Brock Turner case is very common. He served 3 months for the sexual assault of an unconscious person. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/us/brock-turner-college-athletes-sentence/ Bill Cosby. Women began reporting inappropriate behavior about 15 years ago. In some cases with witnesses. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/31/bill-cosby-sexual-abuse-claims-57-women-dates-public-accusations Jerry Sandusky. Penn State overlooks the bad behavior of an assistant football coach. http://www.cbsnews.com/feature/the-penn-state-scandal/ Note also that sexual assault incidences are also higher in the military: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/6/doubts-on-militarys-sex-assault-stats-as-numbers-f/ There was an article written about Gary Carter when he died. What I remember about the article is how his team mates would make fun of him because he was faithful to his spouse and didn't go out drinking after the games. This was in 1986. http://www.northjersey.com/story-archives/klapisch-gary-carter-inspired-us-on-and-off-the-field-1.1212257

Just to be clear, I am not the author of the study quoted. The author information is found here. http://asr.sagepub.com/content/72/5/705.short However, you raised an interesting question, some of which is discussed in the paper referenced and linked below: The short answer is yes. Among identical twins, those who played football are 37% more likely to self-report being involved in violence. The following is copied from the 13th page (p798) of the referenced document. "Findings Presented in Table 1 are the results from the logistic regression analysis where the violence indicator variable is used as the dependent variable and the other variables are used as covariates. Most important was the coefficient (i.e., the odds ratio) for the football participation variable. As shown in the table, the odds ratio was positive and statistically significant. The odds ratio revealed that respondents who were involved in football were 37% more likely to report being involved in violence than those who did not play football." "Exploring the Relationship Between Violent Behavior and Participation in Football During Adolescence: Findings From a Sample of Sibling Pairs: Abstract: http://yas.sagepub.com/content/48/6/786.abstract Full text download: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388773_Exploring_the_Relationship_Between_Violent_Behavior_and_Participation_in_Football_During_Adolescence_Findings_From_a_Sample_of_Sibling_Pairs

There has been a lot of academic work on this topic since the 1990's. If you go to scholar.google.com and search "athletes and violence against women" You will find plenty of articles. I have posted some links below. The positive is that our society is beginning to address this issue although we have a very long way to go. At the risk of over simplification, there are several factors involved. 1). Men who play violent sports are more likely to be involved in domestic violence. 2). Domestic violence/abuse tends to be overlooked in students athletes at a young age and in college (Brock Turner is an example). 3). Domestic violence/abuse also tends to be overlooked in other rich, famous, powerful people. Think of the movie stars (Bill Crosby) and politicians that have been involved in domestic abuse. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=athletes+and+violence+against+women&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=&oq=athletes+and+violence http://www.ayfcoaching.com/AcuCustom/Sitename/Documents/DocumentItem/4488.pdf Unnecessary roughness? School sports, peer networks, and male adolescent violence. http://asr.sagepub.com/content/72/5/705.short This article examines the extent to which participation in high school interscholastic sports contributes to male violence. Deriving competing hypotheses from social control, social learning, and masculinity theories, I use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to test if (1) type of sport and (2) peer athletic participation, contribute to the risks of male serious fighting. Contrary to social control expectations, analyses suggest that athletic involvement fails to inhibit male violence. Moreover, there is a strong relationship between contact sports and violence. Football players and wrestlers, as opposed to baseball, basketball, tennis, and other athletes, are significantly more likely than nonathletic males to be involved in a serious fight. Additionally, the direct effect of football is explained by the football participation of individuals' peers. Males whose friends play football are more likely to fight than other males, supporting perspectives that emphasize peer contexts as important mediators. Overall, findings are consistent with the expectations of social learning and masculinity arguments. The theoretical and policy implications of these results are discussed.

I would keep Stuart Turner. Good defensive catcher are premium and he would likely be lost to Rule 5. I agree about Centeno. John Ryan Murphy would be on the bubble. Palka, Walker, Park, and I might add Sano to this list are all offensive first players with high K%. I would trade 2 of them. Sano might have the most value to trade, albeit diminished from his rookie year. I would keep Vielma and probably let both Escobar and D. Santana go. A utility infielder should be able to play great defense. I would not protect Grossman, He was responsibe for -21 DRS. Would either Walker or Palka be that bad?

This is a nice thought. The Twins really need a great SS. Of the 10 teams (including wild card) that made the playoffs this year only the Nationals (19) and the Rangers (16) did not have a top ten SS by WAR. Data from fangraphs. Of the 4 teams that played / are playing in the LCS, Seager (1), Lindor (3), Russell (7) and Tulowitzki (10). Currently the Braves do not have a decent 2B. Jace Peterson had 0 WAR and ranks near the bottom on NL 2B in defensive metrics. Most likely the Braves will either play Albies or Swanson at 2B depending on who wins the SS position. The Yankees also have 2 SS on MLB top SS prospect list. BTW, Albies fractured his throwing elbow about 1 month ago. Not sure what his recovery time is. They do need a better 2B. In the pre-draft analysis for 2017, the top SS are high schoolers is Jayson Gonzalez and Mark Vientos which minor league baseball have ranked at 20 and 28th respectively. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/8/14/12477008/2017-mlb-draft-prospect-an-early-top-50 There is one more spring of baseball so some of this can change. Short analysis is that the Twins won't solve there SS need in this years draft.

This article made me feel quite depressed for the following reasons. Polanco is one of the Twins more consistent young hitters. Jorge Polanco was first placed on the Twins 40 man roster in the fall of 2013 and was ranked in the top 100 MLB prospects in 2016 (97th after Buxton, Kepler and Gordon as position players). He was signed in 2009 and the Twins as an organization have invested 7 years into his development. The Twins finished in last in all of MLB by about 10 games and yet we don't really have a place on the roster for Polanco because his defense is questionable. The good news is that he is only 23. However, it seems to me that the Twins should have resolved this situation years ago. Resolution has many forms. Accept his defensive shortcomings and play him at SS (but he played 2B most recently in the minors). Trade Dozier, Trade Polanco. But the Twins organization did none of these. It indicates an extreme lack of planning in player development in the organization.

On Fangraphs, the Twins have -50 DRS. The Cubs are at the top of that category with +79 DRS. Although that is bad, most of the damage is caused by just a few players. Grossman -19 Sano -12 D. Santana -10 Nunez -9 Suzuki -6 Polanco -5 Removing the worst 4 players from defense would get the Twins to 0 DRS (which I think is league average). Our projected outfield for next year of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all have positive defensive runs saved.