Eris

Bad/biased umpiring also contributed to the loss column. Cuzzi's foul ball call was probably the worst call in post season history.

For me, as a fan, there nothing more demoralizing than Saturdays game. Having Sano come up with the bases load in the 9th inning and a chance to put the game away and he swings at 3 pitches out of the strike zone. It is not necessarily about strikeouts, it is about quality at bats, of which BB are a good indicator. Per Fangraphs, during the first 2 months of this season, Sano's BB% and K% was 15.5 and 37.4, respectively. During the last 2 months BB% and K% is 6.6 and 36.5% respectively. I would never have guessed that Sano's K% has actually decreased (every so slightly) from the beginning of the year because the quality of his at bats (as measured by BB%) has plummeted. As measured by OBP, Sano's OBP during the first 2 months of the season was 0.408. During the last 2 months it is 0.280.

This is one of the most profound statements I have ever read on TD. I mean this in the most positive way. It is 100% correct and belongs in the Hall of Fame of baseball quotes.

Trading for very good pitching is very expensive. Look at the trades for Sale, Miller and Chapman. Those trades remade the Yankees farm system. If you look at the Sale trade, which involved MLB top ranked prospect and a 30, the Twins currently have no one in there farm system to make such a deal. If you look back historically, it would have been the equivalent of the Twins trading Sano (or Buxton) plus Berrios and couple of lower level prospects. If the Twins were 1 starting pitcher away from a legitimate shot at a WS run, I could see a trade for Archer, Gray, or Quintana. The problem is the Twins need at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 2) and 2 relief pitchers. Obviously the injuries to May and Perkins have an impact. I don't believe the Twins are capable of beating Houston, or Washington or the Dodgers. So I would not trade away top prospects at the trade deadline, especially when prices for quality arms are expensive.

The Verducci article in SI is a interesting article and I would encourage everyone to read it. There is however more to an effective curve that high spin. Kershaw has an average curball spin of 2373 rpm (lower than the league average of 2500 rpm). Kershaw's effectiveness is attributed to hitters not being able to get an early read on his curve because it looks indistinguishable from his fastball out of his hand. Seth Lugo (Mets) who had the highest recorded curveball spin rate in the Statcast era, was not mentioned in the article. The Unteachable Skill. One should always be skeptical when someone indicates something can't be done. It is interesting that a number of pitchers who have great curveballs taught themselves or learned it from their dad and spent many hours crafting the skill. A number things that we have once thought of as being true were not true. Examples, hitters could not distinguish a slider from a fastball, curveballs hurt young arms and therefore many players were never taught how to throw a curveball. The current system (college and MLB) has rewarded young players with elite velocity and as a result there is an industry of baseball academies / training facilities focused on teaching young players the mechanics of throwing a baseball 90-95+ mph. The result is an explosion of TJ injuries. When the incentives change to reward players with elite curveballs (which is maybe now be happening), this industry will change to teach players how to throw effective curveballs. It might be that the mechanics of max velocity are not conducive to throwing a good curveball and therefore someone who throws 100 mph fastball can not throw a good curveball using the same mechanics.

Being able to throw a complete game and its benefits to the team is one of the attributes that is lost in the velocity arms race and the desire for maximum strikeouts. If your starter goes 6 innings, a team will typically need 4 or more pitchers to make it through the game. Long term that has the effect of making the bullpen less effective from overuse. There is an interesting article I was first alerted to by a post in the TD draft thread, on the return of the curveball. Santana doesn't have great velocity or a good curveball, but there are indications that teams are moving beyond velocity. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/05/23/curveball-clayton-kershaw-lance-mccullers

I did not watch the game on Saturday. According to this report, he hit 94 mph (at least once) during the game. http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-10/brendan-mckay-becomes-louisvilles-all-time-strikeout-leader

That is certainly part of the problem. Per fangraphs, last year he threw 180 curveballs and 122 were strikes (68%). This year, so far, he has thrown 63 curveballs, and only 31 have been strikes (50%). I don't know if this is on Pressly or if batters have figured out that they can't hit his curveball and just layoff the pitch. Someone with more skill than I would need to evaluate the data if there is a difference in his in-zone vs. out of zone strike %. Analytical data cuts both ways. It tells pitchers what they need to throw for strikes, but it also helps batters identify what pitches to avoid.

While it is convenient to place the blame on Pressly and he was also the one demoted, there is a catcher involved in the pitch selection as well. Has Pressly been shaking off the catcher or is he throwing what is called.

Not too many years ago, management had similar concerns about a contending team with a sub-optimal closer and ended up trading Wilson Ramos for Matthew Capps. Lets not even think about going there again. It is even more challenging now as closers are even more expensive, e.g., last years deadline trades for Chapman and Miller will help make the Yankees contenders for years. My biggest concern is that the decision to go to Kintzler in the 9th is almost automatic. How about if a reliever is pitching well in the 8th, let him pitch the 9th too. Right now, there are not too many good options. I agree with Han Joelo, I would give the ball to Duffy.

Is this refusal by ML teams to consider having 2-way players based on data or is it just how things have always been done and no team wants to be the first to try (and perhaps fail). It seems to me if this could be done successfully, it would give a team a significant advantage-especially a NL team. In recent years there is increased usage of NL pitchers as pinch hitters. Marcus Stroman pinch hit in a game last night. I find it interesting that both McKay and Greene, likely the two top picks in this years draft could both be drafted as a position player or a pitcher (although Greene is likely to be a pitcher). Shohei Otani has managed to be a successful 2-way player in Japan. If he were to come to the U.S., would he continue being a two-way player or would teams force him to choose (or choose for him)?

I think Rosario is the weak link. Here is his statcast catch probability data: 2/27 in 5 star opportunities 4/9 in 4 star 8/11 in 3 star 19/21 in 2 star 23/24 in 1 star (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?min=25&year=2016) He caught 61% of the fly balls last year. Really good is 70%, and elite is 80%. The data from 2015 is also very similar, where he caught 57% of the balls in play. This data only captures Rosario's ability to catch balls and statcast suggests that Rosario needs to improve. He has a very good arm, which is not measured in this data.

There was a write up last year in fan graphs about Kepler's elite pitch recognition skills. https://www.google.com/amp/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/amp/ As far as I can tell, non of the analytic sites are predicting a sophomore regression. He has the tools. Kepler will be a star. Watching him and Buxton develop together will remind us of the Puckett and Hrbeck development. Now we just need to identify someone assume the roles of Viola and Gaetti. (Note I have left Eddie Rosario off this list because I think his lack of discipline will prevent the Twins from having a truely elite outfield).

I think the Twins and the White Sox are in a very different part of the spectrum (except in on field performance). The Twins path to a World Series is that the current group of young players gels and they becomes contenders by substantially upgrading the pitching staff. (As was mentioned earlier in this thread, the Twins opening day roster has 7 players under 27 who were top 100 MLB prospects) In the next 2-3 years the Twins need to sign probably at least 2 front line starting pitchers and develop a good SS. They have almost no one (except maybe Dozier) whom they are willing to part with and will bring value in return. The White Sox, on the other hand have/had three player with a lot a value (Sale, Eaton, and Jose Quintana). They were able to trade these players for some very good/top prospects. Who do the Twins have that would bring the return received for Sale or Eaton.

You're not giving the FO any credit for this. I don't have any information and am only speculating. Wimmers could have signed with any organization. He chose to come back to Twins. There is probably a gentlemen's agreement/understanding here some place, which I expect will be honored. The baseball world is a small community and if FO don't keep their word, this information gets out there and signing such free agent players in the future becomes harder. I suspect also the both Gimenez and Breslow were promised spots/a good shot to make the team). Considering the "40 man roster crunch" they got Park through waivers. Just about any other time in the off-season they would probably not have gotten Park through waivers, but did it right before Spring training when other teams rosters were set for spring training. An accident or a clever calculated move?

Related to JRM discussions. Hicks loses right field position battle to Aaron Judge. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/03/yankees_aaron_judge_vs_aaron_hicks_the_final_argum.html

A simple explanation is that the moves were made to avoid making 40 man roster moves. Sending Park down is not all that different then sending Alex Wimmers to AAA. It was done to put off a decision on who to cut. It is of course difficult to comprehend how the worst team in baseball can have a 40 man roster crunch. Part of this can be attributed to poor player management and adding players to the 40 man roster before they are ready to contribute. Also, most of the deadline trades last year involved players who had to be kept on the 40 man or risk being lost. Pat Light is an example. Not sure if it would have been possible to work these trades receiving players who were a couple of years from needing to protected. The Twins are even lucky to have these decisions to make on Wimmers and Park as both could have been picked up by any team. There are some obvious candidates to be released or traded. One of the questions is how much value to they have a this time. For example do you try trade JR Murphy for a lottery ticket, or just release him. Before coming to the Twins he was a capable back-up.

You are correct. I have made mistake. I was working on fangraphs this morning (2015 and 2016 data) and I have no idea how I made that mistake. I am no longer able to edit the my post from this morning. If one of the moderators would like to remove the sentence about the Twins being second in runs scored that would OK with me.

Nick. Thank you for the article. It is always nice to wake up to article that represents hope and optimism. What will be interesting to see is how the new front office addresses some of the Twins problems going forward. From my perspective the factors that they can have an impact on is defense and the draft. The Twins were second in ML in runs scored last year. Run prevention is an issue. They are limited by what can be done with pitching. But defense is an area that can be improved. At least on the margins. The data below is DRS from fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,a Robbie Grossman accounts for a good chunk of of the negative DRS with -19. It will be very interesting to see how they manage his playing time in LF. I have the left side of infield accounted for -28 DRS. The interesting game decisions here is will the Twins more aggressive in making defensive substitutions in close games. They have vested most of there options here in Ehire Adrianza, who unfortunately is hurt at the moment, but I am expecting him to make the team. The other component of the defensive metrics is how Danny Santana is managed. Drafting (has discussed elsewhere on TD) and player development has been a one of the main culprits in the Twins current run of failure with few of their 1st round and supplementary picks having a significant impact since 2000. It will will be interesting to watch how the Twins manage this year's draft.

Chargois has had a difficult spring. A WHIP over 2. There are only 5 pitchers in the Twins camp whose WHIP are worse. He deserved to be sent down. We get seduced by Chargois' velocity but he has been very hittable.

From the information that is on the internet, Alex Kirilloff did pitch in high school. Maybe that is a contributing factor. http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/alex-kirilloff/4jHvRvTsEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/default.htm

Phillie fans can be a rough bunch. While I hope you are right as I am a Twins fan, MLB has Mantis as the their 6th best OF prospect. Keith Law has Mantis at 30 and Kirilloff at 97 on his prospect rankings.

Your memory is correct. Polanco was called up both in 2014 and 2015 and played in 4 or 5 games each year. He was called up because of injuries on the MLB roster and because he was the only infielder who could be called up without making a 40 man roster move.

Umpires are like the rest of us, they all have differing skill sets. Some of the umpires are also not young anymore. In 2014, the average age of an MLB umpire was 45.8. With increasing age, their reflexes (and thus their skills) decrease. Additionally, MLB umpires have a very strong union and it is unlikely that umpires who are poor in calling balls and strikes will be pushed aside. As an example, Joe West is still an MLB umpire (and still umping in playoff games). There is an additional component related to framing and electronic evaluations that is seldom discussed. This probably contributes to longer games. Umpires, who are being graded on ball and strike calling, are less likely to expand the strike zone when the game is no longer close. I can't speak for what happens at the ML level, but as a player I have told many times that because of the game situation or the weather that anything close would be a strike.

On Tommy John. Good High school pitchers are throwing for 9 months of the year. Are on multiple teams and often are focused only on baseball. Years ago, good athletes often played 3 different sports. This overuse at a young age, along with the velocity race is likely the drivers of TJ. My son played with kids who had ligament damage from pitching at the age of 12. It would be interesting to see if the incidents of TJ is lower for ML pitchers who did not pitch in high school and earlier.