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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    I would swap Thorpe and Diaz personally. Thorpe is a given. He will get taken if he's exposed. Diaz may not be taken, given that his highest level is A ball and he holds no defensive position.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    You keep changing your rationale. This has nothing to do with winning a trade and everything to do with making a trade that makes sense. JDL for Dozier straight up didn't do that. It was highly likely that we lose the trade, and so far there's no question that we would have. You ask for more assets because of the risk being absorbed by taking JDL... and there was a lot of it... a lot less than whatever risk LA absorbs by taking BD.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    If he's not ready come spring... that's the nice thing of having it. Hopefully, it isn't the case, but that's a real possibility coming back from TJS.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    Not sure I trade Polanco... his slump coincided with a family death. I think he's the real deal. They have trade chips if they want pitching.... lots of AA/AAA types that could be sent over for established pitching from a team that's a few years away or even trading BD again if the stars align.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    That's great. We all wanted more. They wouldn't give it. That is, and remains the point here. We weren't asking too much by asking for more than JDL. JDL was all they wanted to offer. The Twins were right in saying no.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    I could see an option burned for Trevor due to known control issues with pitchers returning from TJS, and that's fine in my opinion. He will get his shot at some point, and he'd likely be the first guy called up in that scenario. I don't see how May prevents them from signing a pitcher. I just don't see it. If May is ready, it's Gibson or Mejia that's on the bubble in that case. Mejia has options, and I'd keep May over Gibson 10 times out of 10.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    Right now I'd say Gordon. Next year at this time, I suspect he's been supplanted (even if he does well in AAA).
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    You can take a look at trades of established vets for minor league players... it's rarely 1 for 1, and for good reason. That said, all the experts seemed to agree on that point too. I don't think they Twins were being unreasonable asking for more than JDL when it came to Dozier... and I think at this point, we can safely look at it in hindsight to see why it was that this was a good decision on the part of the new front office.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm thinking that they could invest heavily in some sort of sci-fi tech that instantly becomes bubblewrap as he hits a wall...
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't see there really being much options since "designated defender" doesn't exist in baseball. The best way to improve defense is to hope the younger guys can do that. Otherwise, you're going to sacrifice offense somewhere. I don't like that sacrifice either.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    From the sounds of things 19 will be an issue with JDL as well. I agree that it is not only about 2017, but I'm with Brock on the idea that JDL for Dozier straight up was a bad trade and will be a bad trade. Even if JDL turns into an above average pitcher, its' a bad trade. There is way too much risk that the Twins are absorbing there to trade Dozier for 50 cents on the dollar. I was all for a Dozier trade last offseason, and I'd entertain it again this offseason. I would want more than one injury prone pitcher in that scenario. As a matter of fact, I'd target pitching, but I'd want more than one. I was on record for something like JDL, Stewart, Buehler, and a guy like Kiebert Ruiz. I probably would have compromised down a bit from there, but that was not an unreasonable ask for a 5 WAR 2B with 2 years left.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    That's fine... which means they will be most likely waiting till 2020.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    This is a fair take. The 52% number was something that one of the Pohlads came out publicly and stated. I don't remember exactly when, but that's why you see the number.. so you may be right that it has definitely become a standard here. And I would note that during the lean years of the last few seasons, spending that 52% made little sense. It would just be money wasted. The real issue, at least in my opinion, is that no one knows the actual revenue numbers, nor do they know the number that represents the organization's operating costs and salaries. That is all conjecture. I think where we differ is that this team really is a couple pieces a way from being fringe to deep. The offense is very young and will likely continue to improve. There are 3 decent options in the rotation in Berrios, Santana, and Mejia (though he's a bit of a question mark). A guy like Darvish means a lot less pen usage not to mention someone we can be comfortable starting game 1 of a series, and spending some cash on a couple shut down relievers gives Molitor a ton of options in the pen to go with Hildy, Busenitz, and Duffey so he isn't wearing those guys down. It also let's us use our minor league depth more wisely. This team could easily win 90+ with the right pitching moves.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    No, I'm not cool with it. But trading Dozier for JDL would have gotten us Dillon Gee and 10 other AAAA pitchers rolling through the rotation in 2017. And it would do that again in 2018, because even if JDL is healthy and successful, he's going to get shut down due to innings limits leaving us with... well... all those 4A types that you deride. As I said before, trading Dozier for JDL is fine if other pieces were included. That's usually how these types of trades work. LA had no desire to add other pieces, and as such the Twins wisely said no.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    Priority number 1... fix Kyle Gibson.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    I think the logic is this: The Twins have a public goal of spending around 52% of revenue on payroll.No one knows exactly what the actual revenue is, but we typically use Forbes' estimate.At Forbes' number, the current Twins payroll for 2018 should be around 130M.Using Forbes' numbers, the Twins underspent the 52% over the last few years.The question at hand is whether or not the Twins should bank that savings from the last years or spend it as an investment in the current product. A 140M payroll, for instance, wouldn't lead to them losing money on the team, but it could definitely cut into profits. With expensive contracts such as Mauer coming off the books, and a team that really is a few pitchers short of being a legit WS contender, it might not just be smart, but a wise investment yielding higher revenues down the road. That's the summary of the argument, though I'd note that not everyone agrees with it... hence the debate
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    There is a reason prospect for prospect trades rarely happen. Not sure either team would have done that to be honest.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure. I don't pretend to know what he's thinking. He could be quite happy to go year to year and sign a one year deal betting on himself in hopes of a bigger contract. Then again, he might be siding with you. Who knows.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm with you. That's what I would do too for the record. However, I have no problems signing someone who gets a QO, especially if we don't get Darvish.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    You're likely able to start conversations there for a guy like Cole. I doubt Archer would be available at that point. If I'm trading, I think I want Archer personally. For that matter, I'd still probably consider dangling Dozier and see if someone bites. Personally, I'd rather bite the bullet and spend cash, especially given the risks that all pitchers bring. That saves our minor league bullets for later if that expensive pitcher gets hurt or to shore up another hole if everything goes as planned. But... the system is definitely good enough to bring a pitcher home.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    So... Jamie Garcia (who wouldn't get a QO) and Yu Darvish (who everyone says we won't sign)... I'm missing a couple I'm sure, but it's not a long list. That's kind of my point... it narrows the list if we refuse to sign someone who gets a QO. I'd be hesitant to trade a 1st round pick for a QO guy (though I'd probably still do that this year), but a 3rd round or comp B round? I wouldn't think twice about that.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    BTW... agree on Escobar. I'm not sure Esco would sign an extension to be a super utility guy, but if he would, I'd lock him up. The problem is that Esco likely thinks he can start somewhere (and to be fair, he played quite well in 2015 and 2017 as a starter).
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    He's not an improvement if he's on the DL. He's also not going to be an improvement when he's ML ready but on a strict innings limit because he hasn't pitched much. I don't have a problem with the Twins asking for JDL, but I do agree with the front office when they said they wanted more. There was WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much risk being absorbed by doing a JDL + crap for Dozier trade. That's why a lot of people were interested in guys like Brock Stewart and Walker Buehler being added to the deal. That, is how you trade a guy like Dozier and build a rotation that can go deep in the playoffs. You won't do that by trading off your best chip for whatever you can get.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    You don't see a lot of front loaded contracts. I'm sure a signing bonus could be worked out in exchange for a slower rise on the back end, but you just don't see much of those. From what I understand, the union isn't a fan... but I don't know. As to the premise. The only guy that I'm waffling on an extension would be Kepler. I'd definitely extend Rosario this offseason. He had a break out season and was one of the best offensive players in baseball. I know defensive metrics don't like him, but I don't buy them. He's a CF, so he has extended range in the corners. Yeah, he makes the occasional boneheaded play, but I hope maturity solves a lot of those issues... My hesitation on Kepler is that he has the most question marks of all of these guys. While he has a higher ceiling than Eddie, he's got a big flaw in his ability to hit lefties. That type of flaw is not a given to be righted. Yes, he showed during his breakout minor league campaign that he can do it, but it's far from a given that this will be the case in the majors. I would probably still lock him up (I might negotiate a bit harder), though there's more risk there, and super 2, while making him more expensive, also gives us an extra year of control. But if there's a guy in the core that I'm not locking up this offseason, it's Kepler. I'd like to see a bit more progress in hitting lefties before I made a commitment.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    which means you won't get a decent one...
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